Speculation abounds at the possibility that Texas one day will become a swing state — or even a blue state. But if there is anything to learn from President Obama's performance on Election Day, it's that he wasn't nearly as strong in the state as in 2008. Texans supported Mitt Romney by wider margins than they supported U.S. Sen. John McCain four years ago.
Obama took one of the biggest dives in Travis County. In 2008, Obama won the county with 117,036 votes. In 2012, he again won the county, but with 92,037 votes, a 24,999-vote swing. In Tarrant County, a Republican stronghold, Romney netted 22,357 more votes than McCain did in 2008.
However, some counties in South and West Texas swung more Democratic this year. Hidalgo County, in South Texas, netted Obama 7,500 more votes this year than he received in 2008. In West Texas, Ector County, although it went to Romney, was more Democratic by 1,235 votes.
Use the map below to explore the rest of the state. Hover over or click on a county to view its vote totals in 2008 and 2012 and to see the margins by which a candidate won.
Counties are color coded based on whether or not a county became more Republican or Democratic, not by the party of the candidate who won that county.
The Texas Tribune is pleased to provide the opportunity for you to share your observations about this story. We encourage lively debate on the issues of the day, but we ask that you refrain from using profanity or other offensive speech, engaging in personal attacks or name-calling, posting advertising, or wandering away from the topic at hand. To comment, you must be a registered user of the Tribune, and your real name will be displayed. Thanks for taking time to offer your thoughts.
Comments (12)
Daryl Ottmers
Why aren't Bexar county, Dallas county and Harris counties in blue? Obama received the majority in these areas during the 2012. These have 3 of the largest cities in the US. So I believe that Texas will be majority Blue again, like it has always been before the mid 1970's.
t mccoy
Daryl: the map shows the change in voting between the 2008 and 2012 elections. For instance, Bexar county did go democratic, but less than it did in 2008, hence it's red.
Ben Judson
@Daryl - the colors represent the change in vote from 2008 to 2012. Many "blue" counties showed lower support for Obama this time around, thus they are red even though they still voted for him. Interesting that some "red" counties, esp in West Texas actually showed higher levels of support for Obama than 4 years ago.
Ben Judson
This is interesting, but would be helpful to have percentages in addition to raw vote counts. Also, some data on the national drift from 4 years ago would provide useful context. Obviously Obama's margins were smaller across the country than in 2008. In which counties did he outperform his national popular vote loss?
Robert Jenkins
From your numbers 35,480 less people voted overall in Dallas county in 2012. Obama only had 4,158 fewer votes. That is less than 15% of the total lost voters. You could rightfully say the county was more apathetic this election but find it hard from data referenced to say its more Republican.
Douglas Brock
@ Robert - I agree, this map and the conclusions drawn from it are flawed. The map needs to account for the changes in the total votes cast in each county between 2008 and 2012. Like Dallas County, Travis County had 19,955 fewer votes cast. Claiming that the state as a whole "drifted right" without accounting for this substantial change is a baseless conclusion. I would think that you are correct that the correct conclusion is apethy especially given the fact that since 2008 the state's population has increased.
Daryl Ottmers
Got it, thanks for clarifying.
Mary Bell Lockhart
This is just a hangover from the tea party drunk of 2010. Although Texans are gradually getting the picture about these hate-based wing nuts, they succeeded in activating a lot of people to vote Republican in 2010 and that continued on until 2012. The solution is better more objective media informing the citizens of Texas.
Also, speaking of media, this graphic itself is slanted by showing only the counties that were "more" Democratic or Republican, regardless of whether or not they in fact voted Democratic or Republican.
David Sadler
Great Map..flawed conclusion based on total vote spread..Take the least populated county..Loving..as an example.
McCain won by 55 votes...Romney won by 45 votes...10 votes less with 16 fewer voters
2008 REP 67 84.8% 2012 REP 54 85.7%
DEM 12 15.2% DEM 9 14.3%
Totals 79 63
13 fewer REP votes is decrease of 19.4% (13/67)
3 fewer DEM votes is decrease of 25.0% (3/12)
16 fewer Total votes is decrease of 20.3% (16/79}
Conclusion 1: Close to 85% of voters voted REP in both 2008 and 2012.
Conclusion 2: 25% fewer voters voted DEM (12 to 9)
..and yet the Map conclusion is that Loving County voted more Democratic????
Jim Baxa
Worthless map. The data shows apathy/dislike of both candiates compared to 4 years ago. The most republican counties (west Texas) did not like Romney, therefore Obama's loss is less bad (even though he got far fewer votes than 4 years ago). I looked at the raw numbers, and Obama increased his vote total in only 4 counties (barely in most cases), and lost votes in all the others (sometimes by many thousand votes). This shows that Obama is more disliked in Texas. The conclusion ought to be Romney was a bad nominee for Texas (seen as way too moderate), and Obama is unpopular even with his base in Texas. Texas clearly moved to the right from 4 years ago (with a few counties in the Rio Grande being an exception).
Prentiss Riddle
I always enjoy the Tribune's maps, but sometimes they get me wondering about what information could be added. I cooked up a map in Excel that shows change as a percentage and also reflects county population. http://prentissriddle.com/blog/?p=100
Caleb White
There is one single blue county in the entire eastern half of Texas, what was happening in Walker County? I just saw this map and it made my day, I was the Democratic County Chair during those years, I was also in my lower 20's and a Political Science student at the time. I am now in Seminary and working towards ordination in the UCC, a progressive denomination. I must say, after seeing this, I am legitimately rethinking why I am not working in political organizing. Thanks Texas Tribune for publishing this map and making my day, come on Texas you are getting your butt handed to you again by the GOP. The everyday person does not care how you are not the GOP and therefore should vote Democratic, they want to know whether or not there is going to be retirement, health insurance, school books that are up to date in the public schools, they want vision. Quite frankly, the Texas Democratic Party as well as the DNC have not been delivering on Vision, rather they have been playing defense arguing they are not the GOP, they are better. The every day person does not care who is better, the Republicans or the Democrats, they want paths of vision, they want to dream of a better day for their children and for themselves in old age. People want to belong to something bigger, they want to feel as if they themselves played a pivotal part in accomplishing something big, new, and life changing, so that is the language we should speak when pitching our Party, forget the GOP even exist, let them make a fool of themselves, in the meantime the public will catch on with what is happening in the Democratic Party.