There’s been a lot of discussion of how big the gap might be between Paxton and Abbott. But another interesting trend to keep track of, in counties that are fully contained in one congressional district: is there a gap between Paxton and U.S. House Republicans? And if so, how big? That can tell us how many reliable Republicans either skipped the Senate race or crossed over to vote for Talarico.

As Eleanor pointed out: There was a lot of anger in rural Texas this year. I'll be looking too see if there is a split between those counties in East Texas, closer to Interstate 35 and the bigger cities, and those in West Texas.

Since the May 26 runoff, we have been reporting on Republicans who supported Cornyn about whether they would back Paxton. To be sure, there are suggestions many have — but some have told us they can’t overlook Paxton’s numerous scandals. We profiled nine such voters in July. You can read about them here: texastribune.org/2026/07/13/texas-gop-voters-john-cornyn-ken-paxton-james-talarico-us-senate

On the Mark Davis Show yesterday, Paxton made his closing pitch to voters who supported John Cornyn in the Republican primary — a group Talarico has been courting.

"How many of John Cornyn’s supporters really want boys in girls’ sports?" Paxton said. "How many of them want trans-ing of children? How many of them want a state income tax? How many of them want an unsecure, open border? How many of them want to eliminate the oil and gas industry? I don’t think those are John Cornyn’s voters. They don’t want that. And so, you can say, oh I’m mad. Well, then you’re contributing to potentially electing a guy that’s for all of that and is against everything that we believe."

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It’s been an unusual midterm in Texas, and we're about to get our first look at the results. Polls will close at 7 p.m. across most of Texas, with El Paso and Hudspeth counties, both on Mountain time, staying open another hour. Once we hit 7 p.m., counties will start posting early-vote returns, which will make up the bulk of overall turnout.

The Trib rounded up seven of the big things we’ll be watching throughout the night, including battleground races for Congress in South Texas, the influence of young voters and the down-ballot statewide races beyond the big U.S. Senate contest: texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-election-day-what-to-watch-midterms-2026

One thing to keep in mind as you watch the results come in: There’s a possibility of a sizable difference between the early vote and today’s vote.

In 2024, for example, Republican Ted Cruz won the early vote by about 9.3 percentage points. He won Election Day by 5.2. His final margin of victory was 8.5. Given Democratic enthusiasm, some politicos are expecting the party to fare better in the early vote than Election Day. That lead could shrink as the votes from today roll in. But we won’t know for certain until the votes are tallied.

We're going to be tracking several groups, places and people who will determine the U.S. Senate race. Keep an eye on the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs, the heavily-Latino border counties in South Texas and the vote share that Libertarian candidate Ted Brown receives as returns come in, among other trends. And read more about what to watch for here.

Usually, we know how Texas' rural counties are going to vote – reliably ruby red. But tonight, I'm going to be watching to see whether anger over data centers shifts that 15% or so of the electorate in any interesting ways. I was out in East Texas last month talking to voters fed up with current leadership: texastribune.org/2026/10/23/texas-rural-voters-data-centers-backlash-big-tech-2026-election

As voting continues until 7 p.m., here are some helpful reminders:

• You can cast a provisional ballot if you forget your photo ID or if your name is not on the voter rolls due to an administrative issue.
• You have the right to vote as long as you’re in line by 7 p.m. local time.
• If your registration is listed as in “suspense”, you may still be able to vote by filling out a “statement of residence”.
• If you make a mistake while marking your ballot, you can get up two more ballots to make corrections before submitting it.
• If you run into issues at the polls, you can contact the Texas Secretary of State’s helpline at 1-800-252-VOTE (8683) or voting rights groups at 1-866-OUR-VOTE (687-8683).

Read more about voter rights and voting by mail here: trib.it/5bV9S8