Staff set up for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s election watch party for the senate seat in Dallas on Election Day, November 3, 2026.
Staff set up for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s election watch party for the senate seat in Dallas on Election Day, November 3, 2026. Shelby Tauber for The Texas Tribune

There’s been a lot of discussion of how big the gap might be between Paxton and Abbott. But another interesting trend to keep track of, in counties that are fully contained in one congressional district: is there a gap between Paxton and U.S. House Republicans? And if so, how big? That can tell us how many reliable Republicans either skipped the Senate race or crossed over to vote for Talarico.

Gabby Birenbaum is the Washington Correspondent for the Texas Tribune. She covers the Texas congressional delegation and the impact of federal policy on Texas. Gabby previously covered Washington for The...