Polling Center: Poll Findings vs. Election Results
In several races, Tuesday's election results didn't match the findings of the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll two weeks earlier. What happened? Full Story
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Daron Shaw
Pollster
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Daron Shaw is a government professor at the University of Texas. He has polled in mayoral, congressional, gubernatorial, and presidential elections and has written two books and numerous articles on public opinion, voting behavior and political campaigns.
Past Contributions
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![State Sen. Dan Patrick and Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst are in a runoff in the GOP lieutenant governor's race.]()
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The Polling Center: What Early Poll Results Tell Us
The latest UT/TT Poll showing a single-digit lead for Greg Abbott over Wendy Davis in the gubernatorial race raised some eyebrows. Adding some context to a survey taken more than a year before Election Day helps provide some clarity on the results. Full Story
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![Gubernatorial candidates Greg Abbott (l.) and Wendy Davis (r.).]()
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The Polling Center: UT/TT Poll Changes With Evolving Environment
By increasing our sample size and providing more analyses of the data in our blog, we hope to provide interested parties with what they seek: in-depth coverage of the actors and issues that are driving important parts of the political process in the state. Full Story
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![Voters wait in line to cast their ballots at a polling station in the Hancock Center on Tuesday Nov. 6, 2012 in Austin, Texa…]()
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The Polling Center: Refining the UT/TT Poll
The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll has a bigger sample size than its predecessors — the better to see what various subgroups of Texans are thinking about politics and policy in the state. Full Story
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The Polling Center: Finding the Actual Voters
So how to create a likely voter model? Campaign pollsters typically use a combination of past voting history — available off the registered voter list — and current interest and engagement. Those who have voted in the past, as well as those who are jazzed about voting this year, tend to get into the likely electorate. Full Story
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The Polling Center: Is Rick Perry Really Vulnerable?
Make no mistake: A Democrat running in a statewide race in Texas who is not losing by double-digits is doing relatively well. But this raises the larger question: Can Bill White actually win? Full Story
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![Gov. Rick Perry at a Texas Association of Broadcasters conference in Austin on Aug. 12, 2010]()
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The Polling Center: Location, Location, Location
At this point, anti-incumbent sentiment in Texas appears to be dwarfed by party identification and opposition to the national Democratic Party. Full Story
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![BIll White, Rick Perry at their Primary 2010 reception speeches.]()
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The Polling Center: Poll Roads
An election that initially favored Sen. Hutchison has settled into a contest where Sen. Hutchison’s support is in the high 20’s while Gov. Perry’s is in the mid-40’s. Full Story
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The Polling Center: First Take on the February 2010 Results
The University of Texas / Texas Tribune poll, conducted from February 1-7, shows Gov. Rick Perry holding a 24-point lead over U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican gubernatorial primary contest, with Debra Medina posing a surprisingly strong challenge to Hutchison for second place. Full Story
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