The long-anticipated influx of GOP money to boost U.S. Senate nominee Ken Paxton has tilted the battle for airtime in Republicans’ favor less than three weeks before early voting begins in Texas.

But in an election where both parties are desperate to win over Latino voters, little of the spending has gone toward Spanish ads.

Since the start of September, Paxton-aligned groups have bought $188 million worth of advertisements, including future TV reservations. Just $4.2 million, or about 2%, is for Spanish-language ads, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact.

The lack of pro-Paxton commercials on Spanish TV and radio has worried some Republicans who say the GOP’s gains with Latino voters across Texas — from the Rio Grande Valley to the rest of the U.S.-Mexico border to the suburbs of the state’s largest metros — are at risk.

Among the concerned is Mayra Flores, a former congresswoman for the 34th District, anchored in McAllen. On Sunday morning, Flores tuned into Univision to watch an hourlong program called Esta Semana for which she had pre-recorded an interview. Her phone began buzzing, as people texted her an observation she was making herself in real time: While some pro-Democratic ads appeared during commercials, there were none for Republican candidates, she recounted in an interview.

It puzzled her, she said, as Republicans brace for a tough election.

“I’ve been seeing it for months,” said Flores, who lost her bid for the GOP nomination in the 34th District earlier this year. “All the races in the Valley are going to be within the margin of error. … They’re going to be very close.”

In the 34th, one of three competitive congressional districts that blanket the Rio Grande Valley, Democrats have outspent Republicans on Spanish ads, $2.7 million to $1.6 million. The split is starkest in the neighboring 15th District, where, like in the 34th, more than 70% of eligible voters are Hispanic. There, Democratic groups have more than doubled Republicans’ spending in Spanish frequencies.

The 28th District is the exception of the three: Republicans have narrowly outspent Democrats during the general election.

It is not clear if the absence of Spanish ads will bear consequences for the GOP. Two years ago, Republicans ran just $1.1 million worth of advertising in Spanish in the U.S. Senate race, then went on to make major gains with Latino voters. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz lost the Latino vote by just three points, after years of Democrats carrying the bloc by double digits.

But this year, Republicans like Flores are worried about warning signs that have been flashing for months regarding Latinos’ eroding support for the GOP. Repeated surveys have shown that Latino voters are unhappy with how much they are spending at the gas pump and grocery store under a state and federal government controlled by Republicans.

That is on top of a sense of betrayal described by some Hispanic Republicans — in focus groups and news accounts — who supported President Donald Trump’s campaign promises to deport criminals en masse only to see their loved ones and employees with no record targeted.

And in the race atop the ticket in Texas, Democratic nominee James Talarico’s Hispanic support has consistently hovered around the mid-50s to low 60s, while Paxton has mostly sat in the 30s. That gap has propelled Talarico to a narrow overall lead in most public polling.

Angie Gutierrez, a University of Texas at Austin professor who worked on the presidential campaigns of Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024, said Spanish ad buys serve multiple purposes. One is to reach voters who “primarily live their lives in Spanish.” They also serve a symbolic purpose, she said.

“It sends a message even for those who maybe are English dominant that the campaigns at least value the voters enough to try to do that outreach, even if it is an extra step,” Gutierrez said. “If campaigns want to really be able to capture all of the votes on the table, they have to cover those spaces.”

In a recent statewide poll of Latino voters, released by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and TelevisaUnivision, 69% of respondents agreed with the statement that, when a candidate appears on Spanish-language media, “it signals that Hispanic voters are important to them and makes me feel they want to earn my vote.”

Two-thirds of eligible Latino voters in the state speak Spanish at home. Half are bilingual and 17% primarily speak Spanish.

For most of the general election, Talarico was the only Senate candidate with a presence on Spanish media, spending $2 million compared to virtually none by Paxton or his allied groups. Republicans have since narrowed the gap, with Talarico and his allies maintaining a slight advantage over Paxton and the GOP in Spanish ad spending — $4.6 million to $4.2 million — according to AdImpact.

But Talarico’s dollars have gone further, under federal law that gives candidates — but not super PACs — access to discounted ad rates during the leadup to elections. In September, pro-Paxton Spanish ad spending totaled $4.2 million, outpacing the $2.6 million for pro-Talarico ads. But virtually the entire GOP buy came from a super PAC, leaving the two sides with almost the same number of “gross rating points,” a metric used to measure advertising reach.

Talarico has also been campaigning in Spanish, at times speaking the language himself in ads and at events. He also launched a WhatsApp service to get campaign news and information in front of Latinos and has leaned on influential figures such as the popular Latino content creator Carlos Eduardo Espina. Talarico’s first ad of the general election was in Spanish — a spot that aired during the FIFA World Cup.

In March, Talarico won the Democratic primary with some of his strongest support coming in predominantly Latino counties.

Both pro-Paxton and pro-Talarico Spanish ads have run in a mix of the big urban media markets, including Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston, and the ones covering Harlingen, Weslaco, Brownsville and McAllen in the Valley, according to AdImpact.

Winning the Latino vote will be imperative to any pathway to victory for Talarico, who is trying to end Texas Democrats’ 32-year losing streak in statewide contests. When Beto O’Rourke came within 3 points of defeating Cruz in 2018, he captured 64% percent of the Hispanic vote, according to exit polls. Democrats had long counted on that level of support from Latino voters, seeing their growing numbers in Texas as the key to their return to political relevance, before nose-diving in 2024.

Spokespersons for Paxton’s campaign and the major groups supporting him, Texas PAC and Lone Star Liberty PAC, did not respond to requests for comment. Texas PAC, tied to the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC that is in turn affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, has accounted for most of the Spanish ad buys promoting Paxton, along with the bulk of the overall September spending barrage.

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