Analysis: Oversized tweets from a Texas trainwreck

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In no particular order, here’s what a columnist might’ve tweeted on the last Saturday of the 85th Texas legislative session, if there were no 140-character limit.

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The threat of a special session — legislative overtime — is high on the last Saturday of the regular session. Nobody cares whose fault it is. But it’s Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s fault. A special session, if we have one, was his idea, his force play and his subject matter.

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Gov. Greg Abbott risks criticism from the right if he doesn’t take the Patrick line on bathrooms. He risks approbation from business if he does.

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Patrick gets a political win even if he loses the current debate on bathrooms and transgender Texans. He’s been fighting the fight his pollsters tell him his core voters want him to fight, and in his re-election bid in 2018, he’ll be able to rally them against wishy-washy moderates and Democrats. Winston Churchill didn’t get famous for his post-war speeches; he got famous for his calls to arms when things looked darkest.

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The governor's Friday wisecrack about showing reporters his impressive target from the gun range — social media did a pretty good job of turning it into an armed assault — couldn’t have helped his efforts to mediate the differences between Patrick and Straus. It got overblown, to be sure. A quick apology would have put out the fire.

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If the budget is on a special session call, it could easily eclipse everything else. The line of supplicants unhappy with the already-agreed-to budget will get another bite. A special session on the budget could also reopen the school finance debate, if the House wants to press on that.

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Any special session on any topic will open the gates to people wanting another crack at their pet projects, from property taxes to constitutional carry. They’ll be banging on the governor’s door; some have already started.

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The problem with Patrick choosing the Texas House as his foil is that he’s punching down. Most Texans don’t have any idea who House Speaker Joe Straus is and don’t know why someone who’s supposed to be as powerful as the lieutenant governor is stymied by some dude they’ve never heard of.

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On social issues, the Texas business community is toothless. In a political environment governed by threats, business doesn’t have a credible “or else” to back up its arguments; it’s simply not believable.

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Abbott’s understandable reticence on the bathroom issue landed him in the middle of dueling ultimatums. Had he taken a position early — or grabbed any of several opportunities to weigh in during the session — he would not find himself having to side with Patrick or Straus, neither of whom is publicly willing to budge.

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Yes, there have been lots of fumbles, but that's not why there are hostages available to those who want them. It’s the end of a legislative session; there are always hostages.

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Reporters have been fielding subtle and not-so-subtle attempts from the players to spin the results as a win for this personality or a loss for that one. That’s normal — and inconsequential. All that matters at the end of a session is whether the state changed, and whether that change was an improvement. The rest is politics.

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This isn’t new, but it’s worth another mention: Too many lawmakers see their actions as material for future political advertising — “How will this look in a mailer?” vs. “How will this affect Texas?”

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Don’t forget that we’re watching all of this in the month of May in an odd-numbered year — the time when a Texas governor’s powers peak. Abbott has three weeks after the regular session ends to veto or sign bills without the Legislature watching over his shoulder, and a special session would be held on his terms, with his timing and his choice of subjects. The leaders of the House and the Senate still have some juice, but now they’ve got a powerful colleague to contend with.