Analysis: A Look at Texas Voter Preferences by Political District
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As the presidential political season heats up in Texas, here's a look — based on the Texas results in the past two general elections for president — at how the state's congressional and statehouse districts stack up for the candidates from both parties. Remember what they say about stock prices while you're browsing this: Past results do not indicate future results, but it's a place to start. It will come as no surprise that most of those political districts were created to keep one party or the other one out of business.
The numbers represent the average results for Republican and Democratic candidates in contested statewide races during the presidential elections in 2008 and 2012. The margin is the difference between those two averages, shown for the state overall and then for each political district. You can see that Republican legislators ordinarily win when their ticket is winning in the the district — but not always.
First up: Congress, where the districts range in strength from the most Republican — the 13th, where the incumbent is Mac Thornberry, R-Clarendon — to the most Democratic — the 30th, where Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Dallas, holds sway. Texas has only one true swing district that could go either to a Republican or a Democrat, depending on the mood of voters: That's the 23rd Congressional District, where freshman Will Hurd, R-San Antonio, is the incumbent. Click on any of the column headers to sort the results.
DISTRICT | INCUMBENT | PARTY | GOP AVG | DEM AVG | MARGIN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
13 | Thornberry | R | 74.7 | 22.3 | R 52.4 |
11 | Conaway | R | 73.9 | 23.0 | R 51.0 |
8 | Brady | R | 72.8 | 24.6 | R 48.2 |
19 | Neugebauer | R | 69.7 | 27.3 | R 42.4 |
4 | Ratcliffe | R | 66.9 | 30.3 | R 36.6 |
1 | Gohmert | R | 66.8 | 31.0 | R 35.8 |
36 | Babin | R | 66.4 | 31.0 | R 35.4 |
26 | Burgess | R | 65.1 | 31.4 | R 33.7 |
12 | Granger | R | 63.5 | 33.4 | R 30.1 |
3 | Johnson, S. | R | 62.9 | 33.9 | R 29.0 |
2 | Poe | R | 61.8 | 35.5 | R 26.3 |
22 | Olson | R | 60.4 | 37.3 | R 23.0 |
5 | Hensarling | R | 60.1 | 37.2 | R 22.9 |
7 | Culberson | R | 59.5 | 38.0 | R 21.5 |
24 | Marchant | R | 59.1 | 37.6 | R 21.5 |
21 | Smith | R | 57.4 | 38.1 | R 19.2 |
31 | Carter | R | 56.5 | 38.9 | R 17.6 |
17 | Flores | R | 56.8 | 39.6 | R 17.2 |
25 | Williams | R | 56.1 | 39.5 | R 16.6 |
10 | McCaul | R | 56.3 | 40.0 | R 16.3 |
32 | Sessions | R | 56.0 | 40.9 | R 15.1 |
27 | Farenthold | R | 55.9 | 41.0 | R 14.8 |
6 | Barton | R | 55.7 | 41.5 | R 14.3 |
0 | STATEWIDE | --- | 54.4 | 42.6 | R 11.7 |
14 | Weber | R | 54.6 | 42.9 | R 11.7 |
23 | Hurd | R | 48.0 | 49.0 | D 1.1 |
15 | Hinojosa | D | 39.4 | 58.0 | D 18.5 |
20 | Castro | D | 38.5 | 58.4 | D 20.0 |
28 | Cuellar | D | 37.2 | 59.7 | D 22.5 |
34 | Vela | D | 36.0 | 60.9 | D 24.9 |
35 | Doggett | D | 33.5 | 62.3 | D 28.8 |
16 | O'Rourke | D | 33.0 | 63.5 | D 30.6 |
29 | Green, G. | D | 31.7 | 66.2 | D 34.5 |
33 | Veasey | D | 27.4 | 70.3 | D 43.0 |
18 | Jackson Lee | D | 22.3 | 75.8 | D 53.5 |
9 | Green, A. | D | 21.8 | 76.6 | D 54.7 |
30 | Johnson, E.B. | D | 20.0 | 78.2 | D 58.1 |
The Senate's most Democratic district is the 13th, where Rodney Ellis, D-Houston, is the incumbent. The 31st Senate District is on the other end of the spectrum; Kel Seliger, R-Amarillo, has the most Republican district in that body. State Sen. Konni Burton, R-Colleyville, has the closest thing to a swing seat. It was Democrat Wendy Davis' post until the 2014 elections.
DISTRICT | INCUMBENT | PARTY | GOP AVG | DEM AVG | MARGIN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
19 | Uresti | D | 41.5 | 55.5 | D 14.1 |
20 | Hinojosa | D | 39.7 | 57.5 | D 17.8 |
15 | Whitmire | D | 38.6 | 59.0 | D 20.4 |
21 | Zaffirini | D | 37.2 | 59.0 | D 21.8 |
14 | Watson | D | 34.9 | 59.1 | D 24.2 |
26 | Menendez | D | 35.6 | 61.2 | D 25.6 |
29 | Rodriguez | D | 31.8 | 64.7 | D 32.9 |
6 | Garcia | D | 31.1 | 66.8 | D 35.8 |
27 | Lucio | D | 29.5 | 67.5 | D 38.0 |
23 | West | D | 18.5 | 79.7 | D 61.2 |
13 | Ellis | D | 15.8 | 82.7 | D 66.9 |
0 | STATEWIDE | --- | 54.4 | 42.6 | R 11.7 |
31 | Seliger | R | 75.7 | 21.3 | R 54.4 |
30 | Estes | R | 70.2 | 26.6 | R 43.6 |
28 | Perry | R | 68.9 | 27.9 | R 41.1 |
3 | Nichols | R | 67.7 | 29.7 | R 37.9 |
24 | Fraser | R | 66.4 | 30.2 | R 36.2 |
1 | Eltife | R | 66.5 | 31.2 | R 35.2 |
4 | Creighton | R | 66.4 | 31.3 | R 35.1 |
7 | Bettencourt | R | 65.9 | 31.9 | R 34.0 |
12 | Nelson | R | 63.8 | 32.9 | R 30.9 |
22 | Birdwell | R | 63.4 | 33.7 | R 29.7 |
18 | Kolkhorst | R | 63.2 | 34.5 | R 28.7 |
25 | Campbell | R | 62.1 | 34.2 | R 27.9 |
11 | Taylor, L. | R | 61.3 | 35.9 | R 25.4 |
8 | Taylor, V. | R | 60.7 | 36.1 | R 24.5 |
5 | Schwertner | R | 59.6 | 36.0 | R 23.5 |
2 | Hall | R | 59.2 | 37.9 | R 21.2 |
17 | Huffman | R | 58.3 | 39.2 | R 19.1 |
9 | Hancock | R | 57.2 | 39.6 | R 17.7 |
16 | Huffines | R | 56.2 | 40.8 | R 15.4 |
10 | Burton | R | 51.8 | 45.7 | R 6.1 |
Finally, the Texas House, with its 150 seats, makes for a very big chart — and more varied and competitive districts. As with the state's senators and its federal representatives, most state House members face more political hazards in their own primaries than in the general election, but there are some House districts — almost a dozen — where candidates from both parties stand a reasonable chance of success.
District | INCUMBENT | PARTY | GOP AVG | DEM AVG | MARGIN |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 | Smithee | R | 79.1 | 18.0 | R 61.1 |
61 | King, P. | R | 76.5 | 20.5 | R 55.9 |
82 | Craddick | R | 76.4 | 20.7 | R 55.7 |
16 | Metcalf | R | 76.4 | 21.3 | R 55.1 |
60 | Keffer | R | 75.9 | 21.0 | R 54.9 |
73 | Miller, D. | R | 74.9 | 21.5 | R 53.4 |
88 | King, K. | R | 75.1 | 22.2 | R 52.9 |
15 | Keough | R | 74.5 | 22.7 | R 51.8 |
83 | Burrows | R | 73.8 | 23.4 | R 50.4 |
130 | Fletcher | R | 74.0 | 23.7 | R 50.3 |
68 | Springer | R | 73.4 | 23.9 | R 49.5 |
98 | Capriglione | R | 72.7 | 24.2 | R 48.4 |
87 | Price | R | 72.3 | 24.5 | R 47.9 |
3 | Bell Jr. | R | 72.6 | 25.2 | R 47.3 |
53 | Murr | R | 71.9 | 24.8 | R 47.1 |
81 | Landgraf | R | 71.2 | 25.8 | R 45.4 |
58 | Burns | R | 71.0 | 25.7 | R 45.3 |
71 | King, S. | R | 70.7 | 26.2 | R 44.5 |
72 | Darby | R | 70.1 | 26.5 | R 43.7 |
59 | Sheffield | R | 70.1 | 26.6 | R 43.5 |
2 | Flynn | R | 70.1 | 26.9 | R 43.2 |
63 | Parker | R | 69.9 | 26.8 | R 43.1 |
33 | Turner, Scott | R | 69.6 | 27.5 | R 42.1 |
13 | Schubert | R | 69.5 | 28.1 | R 41.4 |
69 | Frank | R | 68.6 | 28.4 | R 40.1 |
10 | Wray | R | 68.4 | 28.4 | R 40.0 |
24 | Bonnen, G. | R | 68.5 | 28.6 | R 39.9 |
5 | Hughes | R | 68.4 | 29.1 | R 39.3 |
4 | Spitzer | R | 67.9 | 29.5 | R 38.4 |
128 | Smith | R | 68.1 | 29.8 | R 38.3 |
7 | Simpson | R | 68.0 | 29.9 | R 38.0 |
20 | Farney | R | 67.0 | 29.0 | R 38.0 |
70 | Sanford | R | 67.4 | 29.6 | R 37.7 |
6 | Schaefer | R | 67.7 | 30.1 | R 37.6 |
19 | White, J. | R | 67.4 | 29.9 | R 37.5 |
62 | Phillips | R | 67.2 | 29.8 | R 37.4 |
127 | Huberty | R | 67.5 | 30.2 | R 37.3 |
133 | Murphy | R | 67.4 | 30.3 | R 37.1 |
150 | Riddle | R | 66.9 | 30.8 | R 36.1 |
8 | Cook | R | 66.7 | 30.7 | R 36.0 |
122 | Larson | R | 66.5 | 30.5 | R 36.0 |
11 | Clardy | R | 66.7 | 30.9 | R 35.8 |
56 | Anderson, C. | R | 65.8 | 31.7 | R 34.1 |
21 | Phelan | R | 65.7 | 31.7 | R 34.0 |
106 | Fallon | R | 65.0 | 31.9 | R 33.1 |
57 | Ashby | R | 65.3 | 32.3 | R 33.0 |
89 | Laubenberg | R | 64.7 | 31.9 | R 32.8 |
91 | Klick | R | 64.7 | 32.0 | R 32.8 |
44 | Kuempel | R | 64.4 | 32.4 | R 32.0 |
18 | Otto | R | 64.2 | 32.8 | R 31.4 |
9 | Paddie | R | 64.4 | 33.3 | R 31.1 |
99 | Geren | R | 63.8 | 32.8 | R 31.0 |
25 | Bonnen, D. | R | 63.7 | 33.1 | R 30.6 |
30 | Morrison | R | 63.8 | 33.4 | R 30.5 |
1 | VanDeaver | R | 63.7 | 33.7 | R 30.0 |
84 | Frullo | R | 62.5 | 34.0 | R 28.5 |
28 | Zerwas | R | 62.8 | 35.3 | R 27.5 |
129 | Paul | R | 62.2 | 35.0 | R 27.1 |
26 | Miller, R. | R | 62.2 | 35.6 | R 26.6 |
14 | Raney | R | 60.6 | 35.2 | R 25.5 |
126 | Harless | R | 61.4 | 36.4 | R 25.0 |
29 | Thompson, E. | R | 61.0 | 36.3 | R 24.7 |
55 | White, M. | R | 60.7 | 36.0 | R 24.7 |
66 | Shaheen | R | 60.6 | 36.4 | R 24.1 |
67 | Leach | R | 60.1 | 36.4 | R 23.7 |
121 | Straus | R | 59.4 | 37.2 | R 22.2 |
92 | Stickland | R | 59.0 | 37.6 | R 21.5 |
94 | Tinderholt | R | 58.9 | 37.9 | R 21.0 |
135 | Elkins | R | 59.1 | 38.7 | R 20.4 |
138 | Bohac | R | 58.7 | 38.8 | R 20.0 |
132 | Schofield | R | 58.6 | 39.1 | R 19.6 |
64 | Crownover | R | 57.6 | 38.0 | R 19.5 |
93 | Krause | R | 58.0 | 38.8 | R 19.1 |
108 | Meyer | R | 57.8 | 38.8 | R 19.0 |
97 | Goldman | R | 57.9 | 39.2 | R 18.7 |
12 | Kacal | R | 57.1 | 40.4 | R 16.7 |
47 | Workman | R | 55.7 | 39.1 | R 16.7 |
65 | Simmons | R | 56.6 | 40.1 | R 16.5 |
96 | Zedler | R | 56.9 | 40.7 | R 16.3 |
85 | Stephenson | R | 56.9 | 41.2 | R 15.7 |
134 | Davis, S. | R | 55.5 | 41.5 | R 14.0 |
115 | Rinaldi | R | 55.1 | 41.6 | R 13.5 |
136 | Dale | R | 53.1 | 40.7 | R 12.3 |
17 | Cyrier | R | 53.9 | 41.8 | R 12.1 |
0 | STATEWIDE | --- | 54.4 | 42.6 | R 11.7 |
32 | Hunter | R | 53.9 | 42.4 | R 11.5 |
114 | Villalba | R | 54.4 | 42.9 | R 11.5 |
112 | Button | R | 54.2 | 42.9 | R 11.3 |
52 | Gonzales | R | 52.6 | 42.3 | R 10.2 |
45 | Isaac | R | 51.9 | 42.8 | R 9.1 |
102 | Koop | R | 52.6 | 44.1 | R 8.5 |
113 | Burkett | R | 51.6 | 45.8 | R 5.8 |
54 | Aycock | R | 51.3 | 45.7 | R 5.6 |
105 | Anderson, R. | R | 50.8 | 46.0 | R 4.8 |
107 | Sheets | R | 50.9 | 46.4 | R 4.5 |
23 | Faircloth | R | 48.8 | 48.5 | R 0.3 |
43 | Lozano | R | 47.5 | 49.7 | D 2.2 |
144 | Peña | R | 45.6 | 51.9 | D 6.3 |
117 | Galindo | R | 45.1 | 52.0 | D 6.8 |
78 | Moody | D | 42.5 | 53.7 | D 11.2 |
34 | Herrero | D | 41.6 | 55.6 | D 14.0 |
118 | Farias | D | 40.6 | 56.5 | D 15.9 |
149 | Vo | D | 40.6 | 57.3 | D 16.7 |
48 | Howard | D | 38.7 | 55.6 | D 16.9 |
41 | Guerra | D | 40.1 | 57.3 | D 17.2 |
148 | Farrar | D | 39.4 | 57.0 | D 17.5 |
50 | Israel | D | 38.0 | 56.2 | D 18.2 |
74 | Nevárez | D | 38.5 | 57.7 | D 19.2 |
125 | Rodriguez, J. | D | 38.3 | 58.7 | D 20.4 |
116 | Martinez Fischer | D | 36.9 | 59.6 | D 22.7 |
145 | Alvarado | D | 37.1 | 60.2 | D 23.1 |
119 | Gutierrez | D | 37.0 | 60.1 | D 23.1 |
124 | Minjares | D | 36.8 | 60.1 | D 23.2 |
123 | Bernal | D | 36.4 | 59.9 | D 23.5 |
101 | Turner, C. | D | 35.5 | 62.1 | D 26.6 |
137 | Wu | D | 35.2 | 62.0 | D 26.8 |
120 | McClendon | D | 34.1 | 63.1 | D 29.0 |
31 | Guillen | D | 33.9 | 63.7 | D 29.8 |
77 | Marquez | D | 32.8 | 63.2 | D 30.5 |
79 | Pickett | D | 32.6 | 64.1 | D 31.5 |
35 | Longoria | D | 32.4 | 64.8 | D 32.4 |
38 | Lucio III | D | 31.4 | 65.0 | D 33.6 |
22 | Deshotel | D | 31.9 | 66.8 | D 34.9 |
103 | Anchia | D | 29.5 | 67.2 | D 37.7 |
143 | Hernandez Luna | D | 29.8 | 68.3 | D 38.4 |
80 | King, T. | D | 29.2 | 67.8 | D 38.6 |
37 | Oliveira | D | 28.7 | 67.4 | D 38.7 |
27 | Reynolds | D | 29.8 | 68.7 | D 38.9 |
140 | Walle | D | 28.2 | 70.1 | D 41.9 |
49 | Naishtat | D | 24.8 | 68.0 | D 43.2 |
104 | Alonzo | D | 26.6 | 70.8 | D 44.3 |
75 | González | D | 24.7 | 72.3 | D 47.6 |
90 | Romero Jr. | D | 24.5 | 73.5 | D 49.0 |
39 | Martinez | D | 24.2 | 73.5 | D 49.3 |
36 | Muñoz Jr. | D | 23.9 | 74.0 | D 50.1 |
42 | Raymond | D | 22.5 | 74.0 | D 51.5 |
139 | Turner, Sylvester. | D | 23.2 | 75.2 | D 52.1 |
111 | Davis, Y. | D | 22.8 | 75.6 | D 52.8 |
95 | Collier | D | 22.6 | 75.7 | D 53.0 |
40 | Canales | D | 21.9 | 75.7 | D 53.9 |
46 | Dukes | D | 20.5 | 74.5 | D 54.0 |
76 | Blanco | D | 21.3 | 75.7 | D 54.4 |
100 | Johnson | D | 21.2 | 76.5 | D 55.3 |
142 | Dutton Jr. | D | 20.8 | 77.9 | D 57.1 |
146 | Miles | D | 20.5 | 77.7 | D 57.1 |
147 | Coleman | D | 19.3 | 78.2 | D 58.9 |
51 | Rodriguez, E. | D | 17.0 | 76.7 | D 59.7 |
109 | Giddings | D | 18.5 | 80.0 | D 61.4 |
131 | Allen | D | 16.4 | 82.2 | D 65.8 |
141 | Thompson, S. | D | 12.9 | 86.0 | D 73.1 |
110 | Rose | D | 10.9 | 87.7 | D 76.8 |
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