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Inside Intelligence: About Those Primary Runoffs...

For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked about runoffs for congressional and state Senate seats.

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Five congressional and state Senate primary races will be settled in the May 27 runoffs and we asked our insiders to predict the winners in those contests. Three of those pairings recall the phrase, “Often wrong, but never in doubt.” The insiders overwhelming chose Sen. Robert Deuell, R-Greenville, in the SD-2 runoff and U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall, R-Rockwall, in his May contest in a district that overlaps Deuell’s. Nearby, in Tarrant County, 61 percent think Konni Burton will prevail in the Republican primary runoff for Wendy Davis’ seat in the Texas Senate.

More insiders than not think that Francisco “Quico” Canseco will win the CD-23 Republican primary against Will Hurd, but Canseco hasn’t convinced a majority. And in the CD-36 race to succeed U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Friendswood, 39 percent picked Brian Babin, 29 percent picked Ben Streusand, and 33 percent said they don’t know how that will come out.

The full set of comments from insiders is attached. Here’s a sampling:


Who will win the CD-4 GOP congressional runoff?

• "Why does a 90-year-old need to cling to a Congressional seat?"

• "Ralph Hall's constituents LOVE him. They'll turn out again to keep him in office."

• "Hall will win but the margin will surprise many."

• "Hard to turn your back on an old war horse knowing this will be his last term"

• "Last time around the barn is a winner for the old warhorse"

Who will win the CD-23 GOP congressional runoff?

• "They gave Quico a chance, it won't happen again."

• "Turnout advantage skews towards Hurd"

• "Quico needs to go back home"

• "Last time around Hurd had an 11 point lead heading into the runoff and he couldn't capitalized. He has a strong Aggie network in the district, but if they stay home, it'll be Canseco vs. Gallego II."

Who will win the CD-36 GOP congressional runoff?

• "Babin nearly captured this district in 1996. He has deep roots there."

• "Local ties beats money advantage"

• "Finally, Ben gets a win"

• "Orange County will be the deciding factor in this race and the folks from there relate more to Babin."


Who will win the SD-2 GOP congressional runoff?

• "Hall's grassroots are motivated and will turn out in the run-off. Deuell defeated himself with a liberal voting record."

• "Tea party streak continues"

• "Deuell has bigger numbers, but it will be close. He may have to explain why he should come back when so many who are more conservative than he will not be."

• "You have to go with the incumbent when you have no clue what you're talking about."

Who will win the SD-10 GOP congressional runoff?

• "Konni is one of the few beneficiaries of an ACTUAL Ted Cruz endorsement."

• "Ted Cruz wins this race"

• "Enthusiasm gap gives advantage to the tea partiers in the runoffs."

• "Aren't we trying hard to make sure no one who has served before comes back?"

• "Here comes the Cruz magic wand again."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Kathy Hutto, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Bill Lauderback, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Richard Levy, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Kraege Polan, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Karen Reagan, David Reynolds, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Bradford Shields, Nancy Sims, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

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