Enlarge Illustration by Todd Wiseman

Lawmakers considering re-election next year will get their first test with the semiannual campaign finance reports out next month.

Under state law, those lawmakers can’t begin fundraising until Monday, the day after the veto deadline for Gov. Greg Abbott, giving them just over a week before the June 30 filing period cutoff. And in that period, some might try to haul in as much money as they can to try to scare challengers off when the reports start to come out July 15.

“It’s a sign that there’s planning going on, that there’s enough support that’s going to be there,” said Democratic consultant James Aldrete. “And it does send an important message. There’s no doubt.”

Still, Aldrete and other consultants say, the reports are just a small indicator of support a candidate might see as the race progresses. As GOP consultant Corbin Casteel said, those numbers are “a snapshot of today,” for both incumbents looking to overpower challengers and for candidates hoping to stick out in a crowded primary.

“Obviously, financial strength is a big part of the campaign, but it’s not indicative of what it takes to win or lose, that’s for sure,” Casteel said. “But you’d rather have money than not.”

A handful of primaries are already taking shape, particularly for those allied with House Speaker Joe Straus. State Reps. Byron Cook and Charlie Geren got primary challenges before the close of the legislative session; so did state Rep. Jim Keffer, R-Eastland, who announced this week he won’t seek re-election.

Cook, R-Corsicana, faces a challenge from Thomas NcNutt, whose family manages the Collin Street Bakery, famous for its mail order fruitcakes. Geren, R-Fort Worth, faces Bo French, who was the COO of Craft International, the company that the late Navy SEAL sniper Chris Kyle founded.

But massive campaign warchests — either this early on or later in the race — don’t decide the winner, consultants say. Just look at David Dewhurst’s primary election loss against Lt Gov. Dan Patrick — or Dewhurst’s early fundraising advantage over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2012.

Those dynamics can also play out in non-statewide races.

“There are plenty of underdog candidates that pull things off with much smaller bank accounts,” GOP consultant Jennifer Naedler said.

The Democratic side will likely see significantly fewer party primaries, Aldrete said, with the party focused on knocking off Republican lawmakers, particularly those in districts where demographics are changing to favor Democrats.

One potential primary could be a rematch between state Sen. José Menéndez and state Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer, both San Antonio Democrats. Menéndez trounced Martinez Fischer in a special election earlier this year for the Senate seat.

Aldrete worked on the Martinez Fischer campaign during that race and emphasized he hasn’t heard from Martinez Fischer on whether he will run for the Senate seat again. But Aldrete noted the low turnout in the special election meant typical Democratic voters — especially ones who only vote during presidential years — didn’t show up to the polls.

“Democratic primary voters haven’t had a say in that race,” Aldrete said.

Enlarge Leslie Boorhem-Stephenson

Gov. Greg Abbott signs an open-carry bill passed by the state Legislature at Red’s Indoor Range, a gun store and shooting range in Pflugerville, Texas, on June 13, 2015.

For many, the real end of session isn't here until Sunday, which marks the end of the veto period for Gov. Greg Abbott. After that day, those who are sweating out what might happen to their bills can finally take a deep breath.

The always helpful Legislative Reference Library, meanwhile, ran the numbers on Wednesday on bills filed and passed by the 84th Legislature. Please note that the number of vetoes is just for House and Senate bills and doesn't count Abbott's veto, which was of a concurrent resolution.

Enlarge Legislative Reference Library

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Readers may recall that Abbott's predecessor, Rick Perry, vetoed nearly 80 bills on June 17, 2001 — the final day of his first veto period as governor. The action later became known as the "Father's Day Massacre" and quickly established Perry's reputation for hardball.

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For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked first about the fallout, if any, of the recent mayoral and Senate special elections in San Antonio for Texas Democrats.

In both instances, the candidate favored by progressive organizations was defeated by candidates who received backing from conservative groups.

Three-fifths of the insiders said that those electoral results signal a bigger problem for Texas Democrats, while a bit less than two in five didn't think these results should have state party leaders reaching for the panic button.

Also in the news this week were the announced retirements of two state senators — Tyler Republican Kevin Eltife and Horseshoe Bay Republican Troy Fraser. Five in six of the insiders thought that the elected successors to these two legislative veterans would tilt the Senate further right.

One of the causes touted by many in the conservative wing of the GOP is "constitutional carry," or the right to carry a handgun without a government permit. More than eight in 10 of the insiders predicted a renewed push for legislation on the topic next session.

We closed by asking the insiders as to who among the main presidential candidates with big ties to Texas had the best campaign kickoff. The winner there was Jeb Bush, cited by 37 percent. Rick Perry and Ted Cruz lagged with 13 percent and 12 percent, respectively.

Rand Paul was named by just 2 percent. But the bigger takeaway might be how many of the insiders were impressed by none of the men. Fully 35 percent chose the "someone else" option in the survey.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Enlarge Benjamin Hasson

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Do the recent losses by Leticia Van de Putte and Trey Martinez Fischer in San Antonio signal a larger problem for Democrats in Texas?

• "No. It simply signals that, one, the inside the beltway group in Austin who happens to like those two particular personalities were once again wrong about a local race and, two, that a mayor can usually whip a legislator if they want to give them a run."

• "Dark money is a big problem for Dems."

• "Yes. They are vastly outnumbered outside of the Valley, urban cores, and gerrymandered majority minority districts. For a political party, problems don't get any larger than that."

• "One would think San Antonio Dems would execute the ground game better than they have. That's easily fixable. Overcoming growing suburbs that might have a GOP bent to them is whole 'nuther issue."

• "The recent losses by Leticia Van de Putte and Trey Martinez Fischer were to competent fellow Democrats. So the signal is not one of larger problems for Democrats in general. It is a signal to those Democratic candidates who think and act like they are entitled to your vote."

Enlarge Benjamin Hasson

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With the exit of Troy Fraser and Kevin Eltife, will the Texas Senate be more conservative next session?

• "If assuming more Tea Party influence, then not a true conservative move. Power lies within those that can compromise effectively in favor of your cause — something the Tea Party hasn't demonstrated."

• "I wonder exactly who are the 10-25 percent or so that say 'no.'"

• "Tell me exactly who the conscience of the Senate will be?"

• "Too early to know what will happen, and anyone who says otherwise is just running their mouth."

• "District 1 likely to pick up a more conservative Senator. Fraser's seat less likely to be filled by more conservative lawmaker."

Enlarge Benjamin Hasson

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Will there be a new push for “constitutional carry” gun legislation next session?

• "Yes and it will once again fail. Nobody wants the political/campaign consequence of defending a vote that will allow criminals to carry weapons."

• "Governor's open carry signing ceremony was a vendor fest. Harder to make money off of unlicensed carry and ghost guns."

• "Define 'push.' Will Stickland file a bill? Yes. Will it be heard in committee this next time around? Depends on how nice he plays in the primaries..."

• "You have to try! It took 5 biennial sessions to pass concealed carry after all — 1987-1995!"

• "We got enough. Keep the soccer moms."

Enlarge Benjamin Hasson

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Who had the better presidential campaign kickoff?

• "All were good, but Cruz benefited from being first."

• "Four swings, four misses. Have yet to see one we thought effective, counting both parties."

• "Rick Perry — knocked the ball out of the park!"

• "Carly Fiorina is distinguishing herself — she's picked up a following of women. Rick is great and Ted is Ted, but those of us who know them well find them increasingly hard to take seriously."

• "None of them. Too many people in the race and it's old news."

• "Since you're comparing more than two, the question should have been 'who had the best presidential campaign kickoff.' Cruz went first, in a packed venue — two good decisions."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Brandon Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Randy Cubriel, Beth Cubriel, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Holly DeShields, Glenn Deshields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jack Erskine, John Esparza, Neftali Garcia, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Myra Leo, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Jason McElvaney, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, A.J. Rodriguez, Jeff Rotkoff, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Ed Small, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Ware Wendell, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Sunday, June 21

• Father's Day
• Veto period ends, last day for Gov. Greg Abbott to say no to legislation
• Moratorium ends on contributions to statewide officeholders and members of the Legislature; aka, the return of fundraising season

Tuesday, June 23

• Railroad Commissioner David Porter fundraiser; 221 W. Sixth St., Austin (5:30 p.m.)

Wednesday, June 24

• Tribune conversation series: Health Care and the 84th Legislature; 7703 Floyd Curl Dr., San Antonio (12-1 p.m.)
• State Sen. José Rodríguez, D-El Paso, fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4:30-6 p.m.)

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Thursday that Texas can ban license plates with the Confederate flag, with the 5-4 majority agreeing that the plates would "constitute government speech" with a message that the government would seem to endorse. Justice Stephen Breyer, who wrote the majority opinion, said people wanting to display that message could do so "on a bumper sticker right next to the plate."

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller is eliminating a ban on deep fryers and soda machines in schools, saying the policy was a "one-size-fits-all approach mandated from Austin" and that school district should be able to decide on the issue. Critics say the policy change will hinder efforts to reduce Texas' high childhood obesity rates, but Miller said his plan will also bring more local food from farmers into schools and promote healthy options.

Denton's City Council repealed its ban on fracking early Wednesday in response to House Bill 40, a new law that prohibits those bans. The city's ban — which its voters approved last year — was facing a lawsuit from the state and the Texas Oil and Gas Association.

State Rep. Jim Keffer, R-Eastland, announced he won't run for re-election after serving 10 terms in the House. Keffer, an ally of House Speaker Joe Straus, was already facing a primary challenge from the right, as are some other Straus backers.

Gov. Greg Abbott predicted a "new era of job growth" as he signed a $2.56 billion bill reducing business franchise tax rates by 25 percent, along with other tax cuts. The overall package, Abbott said, will make it "so easy to sell Texas" as he travels around the country hoping to get businesses to relocate to Texas. Already, Abbott had made a push to bring General Electric here, away from proposed tax increases in Connecticut.

A broad review of athletes' academics is underway at the University of Texas at Austin, following a report in the Chronicle of Higher Education that basketball players cheated under former men's coach Rick Barnes. Greg Fenves, the university's new president, said the "top-to-bottom review" will help him get a better understanding of UT athletes' academic life and that the university has "always been dedicated to winning with integrity."

San Antonio's interim mayor, Ivy Taylor, said her supporters "defeated a political machine" in narrowly beating former state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte for a full term as mayor. Josh Robinson, a Taylor strategist, called it a "new day in San Antonio," while Van de Putte's campaign manager, Christian Archer, said the low Democratic turnout in the race should "scare every Democrat in Bexar County."

Gov. Greg Abbott signed the open carry and campus carry legislation into law over the weekend, saying the gun rights groups who supported the measures "worked profoundly to ensure that the Constitution is lived up to." Meanwhile, a discussion is underway at college campuses about how they'll establish the gun-free zones the campus carry law allows.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Donna Bahorich was named chairwoman of the Texas State Board of Education by Gov. Greg Abbott for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2017. Bahorich, who began service on the board in January 2013, represents District 6 in Harris County.

Houston appeals court judge Michael Massengale will challenge Texas Supreme Court Justice Debra Lehrmann, who confirmed this week that she is running for re-election. She joined the court in 2010.

The two announced contenders for the open Senate District 1 seat — state Reps. Bryan Hughes and David Simpson — released two big endorsement lists. The Hughes campaign announced that it has the backing of Attorney General Ken Paxton, Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, seven GOP county chairmen in the district as well as several prominent leaders among the party's conservative wing. The Simpson campaign released a list of more than 170 county precinct chairmen and activists, including former state Rep. Erwin Cain.

Former Mayor Jay Dean announced on Thursday that he plans to run for the House District 7 seat being vacated by Simpson.

State Sen. Donna Campbell, R-New Braunfels, released a statement this week that she will not challenge U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio, in next year's party primary election.

House District 47 state Rep. Paul Workman, R-Austin, announced this week that he will stand for re-election. His name had been mentioned as a possible contender for the Senate District 24 seat that is now open following the decision by Horseshoe Bay Republican Troy Fraser not to seek re-election.

Three Dallas/Fort Worth-area state representatives formally announced re-election bids on Thursday: Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth; Linda Koop, R-Dallas; and Angie Chen Button, R-Richardson.

Bastrop entrepreneur Brent Golemon is running again for House District 17, he announced Monday. In February, Golemon lost a special election for the Central Texas seat to fellow Republican John Cyrier.

The political arm of the tort reform group Texans for Lawsuit Reform announced on Tuesday that it is endorsing Tom Oliverson, who is running for the open Harris County-based House District 130.

Kevin Roberts, who is seeking the Republican nomination for the Harris County-based House District 126, announced on Tuesday the endorsements of a trio of prominent Houston-area Republicans: Steve Hotze, president of Conservative Republicans of Texas; Terry Lowry of The Link Letter; and Gary Polland of the Texas Conservative Review.

Richard Fry, Mary Louise Phelps and Scott Rewak have joined the family law practice of Austin-based law firm Ikard Wynne LLP.