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Senator John Cornyn has extended his congratulations to James Talarico: "I look forward to meeting him and offering my assistance with his transition as he prepares to serve Texans in the U.S. Senate."

At Gov. Abbott’s watch party in downtown Austin, most of the enthusiasm was for the band playing hits from the 1970s and 1980s like “My Sharona” and “Footloose.” As the crowd was coralled to the stage from the bar and buffet area at the club Speakeasy, all awaiting Abbott to address the crowd, many expressed surprise at the nightlong lead Hinojosa had over the incumbent governor. Houston Realtor Jennifer Jacks, 52, believes it was Paxton who is dragging the vote down for Abbott. She said she likes Paxton and voted for him, adding that people make mistakes but she thinks the opposition to Paxton has been a major obstacle for Republicans. “I think it’s the whole Paxton thing,” she said. “And Trump haters.”

That's now two of the redrawn seats where Republicans have conceded. We're in potential dummymander territory.

At the Gina Hinojosa for Governor watch party out on the patio, Caitlin McFarland, 43, did a little jig as CNN announced that Democrats had taken control of the U.S. House. McFarland, who helped with Hinojosa fundraising, said she was hearing that some outlet had called the Texas Senate race for Talarico, and it was giving her hope for Hinojosa. Still, she’s cautiously optimistic. “We’re all very nervous, if 2016 taught us nothing,” McFarland said. Next to her, a newfound friend of hers and fellow Austinite Stacie Cline, 50, chimed in. “It’s kind of like PTSD from the Beto years,” Cline said, referring to 2018 when Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within a few points of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz. “It’s restoring humanity. This is hope. This is truly hope.” McFarland said she doesn’t think Talarico or Hinojosa winning would change her life tomorrow — they’d each be up against their own challenges — but the message it’d send from her fellow Texans would reassure her. “I want to know everyone else in my state is also voting for sensibility,” McFarland said.

Eric Flores, the Republican challenging U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in Texas’ 34th Congressional District, conceded the race. The district was among those redrawn last year to help Republicans.

I covered the Colorado statehouse for several years during an era of divided government. It was a gift to then-Gov. John Hickenlooper, a Democrat. It allowed him to duck ultra-partisan bills. If the Texas House flips, but not the Senate, Hinojosa would see a similar benefit if she is also elected.

The conversations tonight among Republicans and Democrats that the Texas House is likely to flip are remarkable. Here is how uncertain any predictions appeared heading into Election Day. In March, Gina Hinojosa said “If we flipped 12 in 2018 and we’re gearing up for a bigger wave in 2026, you better believe we can flip this House.” But as recently as September, she sounded less sure. At the Texas Tribune festival she said, “We’re not going to have a Democratic-dominated Legislature. That’s just reality. I live in reality.” To be fair, a Dem-dominated Lege would require the Senate to flip, too.

It's not just the RGV and the suburbs for Democrats. In smaller red metro counties (think Midland, Taylor, Potter), Ken Paxton, while still leading by significant margins, is running 19 to 26 points behind what Ted Cruz did in the '24 early vote.

State Rep. Denise Villalobos, R-Corpus Christi, has conceded to Democrat Stephanie Guerrero in House District 34, a seat Villalobos won by 11 points to flip it in 2024. It was a longtime Democratic district that Trump carried by 1 point last cycle, and Republicans had invested heavily to defend her seat.

It might be a similar story in several other districts across the state tonight, as Republicans and Democrats are beginning to say control of the House could be in play. Democrats would have to flip 14 seats to win the chamber for the first time since 2000.

The mood in the room at Ken Paxton’s watch party has turned a bit bleak, with the crowd thinning as people begin to leave. Amid the dwindling gathering, four men embraced in a two-minute prayer, their heads swaying and eyes squeezed shut. One of them, Joshua Feuerstein from Dallas said, “We prayed for the great Republic of Texas. Whatever happens tonight, God will use it for his glory.”

Worried expressions and some furrowed brows are visible across the room. Near the screen, a group of women have pulled up chairs and settled into what appears to be a serious conversation as they await for more results.

Democratic nominee for Texas railroad commission Jon Rosenthal says he will deliver remarks at 9:30 p.m.

James Talarico is leading in a number of suburban counties — Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hays, Kaufman and Williamson — as results continue to roll in. The Democratic Senate candidate is holding strong even in the three Dallas-area suburban counties that turned out for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024: Collin, Denton and Kaufman. Suburban Texas used to a reliable GOP stronghold but has become more competitive over the last several election cycles, paving the way for Talarico’s excellent showing there so far tonight.

We got a question from Dustin of Galveston County: How do those Montgomery County early votes compare to the last senate/governor race?

In the 2024 U.S. Senate race, Ted Cruz beat Collin Allred in Montgomery County with 69.8% of votes. In 2020, John Cornyn beat MJ Hegar in the county with 72.4% of votes. Here are our 2024 and 2020 results.

Another way to look at this: Talarico’s 38.8% in Montgomery is about 10 points more than the 28.3% Allred got there. That Talarico figure only includes the early vote, however, so expect it to change.

In the 2022 race for governor, Greg Abbott beat Beto O’Rourke in Montgomery County with 73.4% of votes. Here are our 2022 election results.

Democratic momentum is rising in Texas, in spite of the new congressional map that Republicans hoped would help them pick up five more seats in the U.S. House.
In the redrawn 9th, 34th and 35th Districts – all seats currently held by Democrats and where more than 60 percent of votes have been counted in each – a blue wave seems imminent. Even in the vacant 23rd District, formerly held by Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales, Democrat Katy Padilla Stout has surged ahead of Brandon Herrera.
The redistricting arms race isn’t bearing well for the GOP in other states either. In Florida, Democrats have already claimed victory in three of four redrawn seats Republicans hoped to pick up.

With about 10% of polling locations reporting, the state’s secretary of state results page has Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick down to their Democratic challengers Gina Hinojosa and Vikki Goodwin.

One of our local newsrooms, The Waco Bridge, has its own results page. You can see Democrats there taking an early lead down-ballot. Waco is part of McLennan County, one of those ruby-red counties. It's stunning to see Republicans trailing in early results there.

In the race for Tarrant County judge, Democrat Alisa Simmons declared victory over incumbent Republican Tim O’Hare, making her the first Democrat to serve as county judge in 40 years. She currently leads O’Hare by 15 points in the county.

In his first apparent social media post since returns started coming in, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn posted a picture of the Texas Capitol with no comment.