It's not just the RGV and the suburbs for Democrats. In smaller red metro counties (think Midland, Taylor, Potter), Ken Paxton, while still leading by significant margins, is running 19 to 26 points behind what Ted Cruz did in the '24 early vote.

Gabby Birenbaum is the Washington Correspondent for the Texas Tribune. She covers the Texas congressional delegation and the impact of federal policy on Texas. Gabby previously covered Washington for The...