Abortion, private school vouchers and legislative control are the key issues in Texas’ 2024 election

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The presidential race is getting most of the attention this election season — and the candidates aren’t devoting much energy to competing in traditionally Republican Texas.

But our voters will still have a lot of influence this November inside and outside the state. They’ll elect a U.S. senator, 38 U.S. House members, 150 state House members and multiple judges and local elected officials. And they’ll have influence over some key questions:

• ​Which party will control the chambers of Congress?
• What will be the future of abortion restrictions in Texas and beyond?
• Will there be enough votes to allow parents to use taxpayer money for private school tuition? ​

Here’s a roundup of some of the key issues our reporters are following.

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Can Colin Allred help the Democratic party keep control of the U.S. Senate?

With a one-seat majority, the Democratic Party has little room for error if it wants to keep control of the Senate. The party has eyed Texas as one of its two major opportunities to win seats currently held by Republicans.

Colin Allred, one of Texas’ U.S. representatives, is challenging Sen. Ted Cruz. He’s considered the underdog, but Democrats assert Cruz’s near-universal name recognition and deep unpopularity among the left can make the race competitive. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke also put the state on the party’s radar again in 2018 when he came within 3 percentage points of beating Cruz.

Allred’s campaign has tied Cruz to the state’s strict abortion restrictions and his vote against a recent bipartisan border security proposal endorsed by the Biden administration. Cruz meanwhile is calling Allred weak on the border and energy policy — common criticisms from Republicans against Democrats. Recent polling has shown Allred to be less than 5 percentage points behind Cruz. The two are scheduled to face off in a televised debate on Oct. 15.

An Allred win would help Democrats pick up a seat. It would also represent a monumental moment in Texas — and U.S. — politics. Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Texas this century. Even a strong showing without a win could bolster Democratic turnout for down-ballot races in Texas. But national Democrats also have to worry about several incumbents in other states who are vulnerable this year limiting the amount of resources they can devote to Texas. Meanwhile, nearly every Republican incumbent up for reelection this year is in a safe Senate seat, and Cruz continues to be a strong fundraiser and a favorite among Texas officials with conservative constituencies.

Regardless of which party takes control of the Senate, neither party is likely to achieve a 60-vote majority needed to overcome the chamber’s filibuster. This means both parties will likely have a hard time passing priority legislation. But whoever wins gets to be in charge of approving presidential nominations to federal courts and some executive branch positions and control what legislation reaches the floor..

—Matthew Choi

Can South Texas help Republicans maintain control of the U.S. House?

Three South Texas congressional races could play a crucial role in whether Republicans are able to keep their slim majority in the U.S. House as the GOP continues to try to make inroads among the area’s heavily Hispanic population.

Monica De La Cruz, an Edinburg Republican whose election in 2022 marked a Republican first in the historically Democratic Congressional District 15 and the South Texas region, is in a rematch with Democrat Michelle Vallejo. Vallejo is challenging De La Cruz on health care, the economy and even pitching herself as the better candidate on border security – a far cry from the progressive champion she ran as two years ago. The district was designed by state lawmakers to favor Republicans, so Vallejo would have to make up ground with moderates and independents and hope for a lift from the presidential race to get her over the top.

Next door, in district 34, Republican Mayra Flores is trying to win back the seat she previously won in a special election in July 2022 only to be ousted by Vicente Gonzalez a few months later. Gonzalez, a Brownsville Democrat, won the seat in November of that year after state lawmakers redrew him into Texas 34 during redistricting to make his old seat in Texas 15 – now represented by De La Cruz – more favorable to Republicans. Flores outraised Gonzalez in the first quarter of 2024 and has been named a “Young Gun” by the National Republican Congressional Committee. Gonzalez, who won the last election by 8 percentage points, has projected confidence in his race, saying he welcomes the GOP spending money on races “they are guaranteed to lose.”

The third South Texas race to keep an eye on is in District 28, which Laredo Democrat Henry Cuellar has represented for nearly 20 years. The Republican challenger in the district, Navy veteran Jay Furman, is a political newcomer and raised only modest sums of money during his primary, so Cuellar appeared to be safe

But in May Cuellar was indicted on charges of bribery and money laundering connected to contributions from the country of Azerbaijan and a Mexican bank, and Republicans added Cuellar to their “target list.” Cuellar has maintained his innocence and voters in his district appear to be sticking with their longtime representative.

Overall, these races will hinge on the state of the economy, immigration,health care and infrastructure. Each of the incumbents in the targeted South Texas races appear to be favored to win. But if any of the challengers pulls off an upset, it could impact the math for dominance in the U.S. House, which is in charge of initiating budget legislation, impeaching federal officials and electing the president in the case of an Electoral College tie. (In an Electoral College tie, the Senate would select the vice president.)

—James Barragán

Is abortion on the ballot in Texas?

In November, voters in 10 states will get a chance to vote directly on their state’s abortion restrictions. Texas isn’t one of them — the state has no mechanism for voters to directly put an issue on the ballot. Nonetheless, in a state where nearly all abortions are banned, reproductive rights promises to be a top issue in the elections for Congress, the president and state judges.

While Congress doesn’t directly get a say in Texas’ state laws, Democrats would need significant control of both chambers to pass the Women’s Health Protection Act or other legislation that would restore abortion access nationwide.

Texas’ abortion laws have also been front and center in the presidential campaign. Several Texas women who say they were denied medically necessary abortions have campaigned for Vice President Kamala Harris, with Amanda Zurawski speaking at the Democratic National Convention. If elected, Harris has promised to sign any legislation that comes to her desk restoring abortion access and work to repeal existing restrictions, including the Hyde Amendment that restricts the use of federal funds for abortion. Her opponent, former President Donald Trump, has waffled on the issue but more recently said he would veto a national abortion ban so that the issue would be left up to states to decide. Many in his party have made clear their hope that he will sign a nationwide abortion ban.

Democrats in the Texas House and Senate would love to restore abortion rights into law. But due to redistricting and Texas’ rightward lean politically, there’s essentially no chance of them winning control of the Legislature this year.

There are three seats up for re-election on the Supreme Court of Texas. These are usually sleepy races easily won by Republican incumbents, but after two controversial abortion rulings, the court is getting a second look by Democrats. All three incumbents have Democratic challengers, and a new political action committee, the Find Out PAC, is aggressively amplifying the sitting justices’ role in anti-abortion cases. But even if this election breaks through the red wall on the court, Republicans would still have a majority of the nine-seat bench.

—Eleanor Klibanoff

Will pro-school voucher candidates gain power of the Texas Legislature?

Gov. Greg Abbott and Republican proponents of school voucher measures have pushed to allow Texas parents to use taxpayer dollars to pay for private school, but Democrats and rural Republicans in the Texas House have repeatedly blocked such efforts, including last year.

The governor responded by successfully targeting many of the anti-voucher Republican lawmakers in the primaries, after which he claimed to have the votes to pass a voucher measure. A total of 77 House GOP nominees have previously voted for vouchers or voiced support on the campaign trail, a narrow majority of the 150-seat chamber.

But Democrats, who have acknowledged the power shift, are hoping to flip enough GOP-controlled House seats this fall to regain the upper hand and once again deny Abbott the votes to provide taxpayer funds for private school tuition.

Most of the competitive races are centered in the Dallas and San Antonio suburbs and South Texas, across several districts with struggling public schools where Democrats hope a push for public education will resonate at the ballot box. Among their top targets are the following Republicans:

• State Rep. John Lujan of San Antonio
• State Rep. Angie Chen Button of Richardson
• State Rep. Morgan Meyer of University Park
• State Rep. Janie Lopez of San Benito

Democrats also see a newfound opportunity to pick up the San Antonio-area seat held by state Rep. Steve Allison — a moderate Republican who opposes school vouchers — after Allison was defeated in the March primary by conservative challenger Marc LaHood, a criminal defense attorney who backs vouchers.

Abbott and other voucher proponents are also working to flip a few Democrat-held districts, an outcome that would widen their currently razor-thin pro-voucher majority. Top targets include the district held by retiring state Rep. Tracy King, D-Uvalde, and state Rep. Mihaela Plesa, a Dallas Democrat who is seeking a second term.

—Jasper Scherer

Will the far right continue to gain elected offices in Texas?

In an election filled with uncertainties and existential rhetoric, at least one thing is clear: The nation is deeply divided, and is expected to remain so in the coming years. Various studies from this year show that political polarization continues to increase. This became evident in the chaotic summer that included two attempts on Trump’s life, dramatic political conventions, Biden’s historic decision to exit the race, and a new round of conspiracy theories, disinformation and political violence.

But it’s no longer just a red vs. blue issue: In Texas, Republicans are halfway through a second year of deep infighting between the party’s right wing and its more moderate, but still deeply conservative, flank. During the March primaries, the state’s far right saw a wave of victories that will give it more power than ever in the Legislature. Those divisions are almost certain to deepen ahead of the 2025 legislative session, as the party’s competing factions seek speakership – or leadership – of the Texas House of Representatives. Some of these Republicans have also previously pushed to ban their Democratic colleagues from chairing a handful of committees.

And in places such as Tarrant County, control of local governments will be decided by a handful of down-ballot races between left-of-center Democrats and far-right candidates.

The divisions have only sharpened amid the rise of Christian nationalism, which claims that the United States’ founding was God-ordained and its institutions should thus favor conservative Christianity. This year, state Republicans have cast the upcoming elections as between good and evil, and prominent activists have openly embraced once-fringe theories that claim America — and its churches — are under attack.

According to those who study and follow religious fundamentalism, this movement could intensify if there are major electoral losses — whether it’s by coalescing around false notions of widespread voter fraud, or by convincing members that they did not fight or believe hard enough to overcome what they claim are dark, cosmic forces on the other side of the political aisle.

—Robert Downen