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The Texas Weekly Index

With candidate filings about to open, here is the current state of play, listing incumbents, whether they plan to seek another term, and the Texas Weekly Index for the area they represent. In the case of senators, we also note which seats will be on the ballot in 2016.

Candidates can file to run in the 2016 elections in Texas starting on Saturday (Nov. 14) and running through Monday, Dec. 14. The primaries are on March 1 and early voting begins on Feb. 16, the Tuesday after President’s Day.

With that in mind, we wanted to post up the current state of play, listing incumbents, whether they plan to seek another term, and the Texas Weekly Index for the area they represent. In the case of senators, we also note which seats will be on the ballot in 2016.

The Texas Weekly Index is a measure of the political environment of each political district — averaging the results in competitive statewide races in which both parties had candidates. The Index is the difference between those average winners and losers, marked as either a Democratic or Republican advantage with an R or a D. This latest version averages the results in 2012, a presidential year, and 2014, a gubernatorial year. It’s not a prediction of what might happen, but a look back at what has happened before.

Each chart is sortable, and we’ll put out a full update when the prospective candidates have actually signed up to run.

 

Texas Weekly Index, Statewide (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
OfficeIncumbentPartyRetiring?TWI
RRC Porter, David R N R 18.6
SCOTEX 3 Lehrmann, Debra R N R 18.6
SCOTEX 5 Green, Paul R N R 18.6
SCOTEX 9 Guzman, Eva R N R 18.6
CCA 2 Meyers, Lawrence D N R 18.6
CCA 5 Johnson, Cheryl R N R 18.6
CCA 6 Keasler, Mike R N R 18.6

 

Texas Weekly Index, Congress (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
DistrictIncumbentPartyRetiring?TWI
1 Gohmert , Louie R N R 46.5
2 Poe , Ted R N R 29.9
3 Johnson, Sam R N R 33.2
4 Ratcliffe, John R N R 47.9
5 Hensarling , Jeb R N R 31.8
6 Barton , Joe R N R 18.7
7 Culberson , John R N R 25.3
8 Brady , Kevin R N R 56.7
9 Green, Al D N D 53.3
10 McCaul , Michael R N R 20.8
11 Conaway , Mike R N R 61.6
12 Granger , Kay R N R 35.5
13 Thornberry , Mac R N R 62.3
14 Weber, Randy R N R 19.5
15 Hinojosa , Ruben D N D 11.6
16 O'Rourke, Beto D N D 23.3
17 Flores , Bill R N R 24.7
18 Jackson Lee , Sheila D N D 50.5
19 Neugebauer , Randy R Y R 53.5
20 Castro, Joaquin D N D 15.2
21 Smith , Lamar R N R 22.7
22 Olson , Pete R N R 28.9
23 Hurd, Will R N R 08.1
24 Marchant , Kenny R N R 26.4
25 Williams, Roger R N R 21.3
26 Burgess , Michael R N R 38.9
27 Farenthold , Blake R N R 24.6
28 Cuellar , Henry D N D 14.8
29 Green, Gene D N D 29.6
30 Johnson , Eddie Bernice D N D 57.0
31 Carter , John R N R 24.0
32 Sessions , Pete R N R 18.9
33 Veasey, Marc D N D 40.8
34 Vela, Filemon D N D 15.3
35 Doggett, Lloyd D N D 26.1
36 Babin, Brian R N R 46.7

 

Texas Weekly Index, Senate (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
DistrictIncumbentPartyTerm ending?Retiring?TWI
1 Eltife, Kevin R Y Y R 45.7
2 Hall, Bob R N N R 29.5
3 Nichols, Robert R N N R 51.2
4 Creighton, Brandon R Y N R 41.9
5 Schwertner, Charles R N N R 29.9
6 Garcia, Sylvia D Y N D 30.4
7 Bettencourt, Paul R N N R 38.8
8 Taylor, Van R N N R 28.5
9 Hancock, Kelly R N N R 23.9
10 Burton, Konni D N N R 09.6
11 Taylor, Larry R Y N R 32.1
12 Nelson, Jane R Y N R 36.6
13 Ellis, Rodney D Y N D 65.4
14 Watson, Kirk D N N D 24.3
15 Whitmire, John D N N D 16.6
16 Huffines, Donald R N N R 19.4
17 Huffman, Joan R N N R 23.8
18 Kolkhorst, Lois R Y N R 39.2
19 Uresti, Carlos D Y N D 05.6
20 Hinojosa, Juan "Chuy" D Y N D 11.4
21 Zaffirini, Judith D Y N D 14.4
22 Birdwell, Brian R Y N R 38.9
23 West, Royce D N N D 60.0
24 Fraser, Troy R Y Y R 46.1
25 Campbell, Donna R N N R 31.9
26 Menendez, Jose D Y N D 21.9
27 Lucio, Eddie D Y N D 30.8
28 Perry, Charles R Y N R 52.6
29 Rodriguez, Jose D Y N D 25.6
30 Estes, Craig R N N R 52.8
31 Seliger, Kel R N N R 63.8

 

Texas Weekly Index, House (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
DistrictIncumbentPartyRetiring?TWI
1 VanDeaver, Gary R N R 41.8
2 Flynn, Dan R N R 55.0
3 Bell Jr., Cecil R N R 58.5
4 Spitzer, Stuart R N R 48.6
5 Hughes, Bryan R Y R 52.3
6 Schaefer, Matt R N R 45.3
7 Simpson, David R Y R 46.7
8 Cook, Byron R N R 49.1
9 Paddie, Chris R N R 42.9
10 Wray, John R N R 47.7
11 Clardy, Travis R N R 48.5
12 Kacal, Kyle R N R 28.7
13 Schubert, Leighton R N R 53.6
14 Raney, John R N R 31.5
15 Keough, Mark R N R 56.3
16 Metcalf, Will R N R 64.3
17 Cyrier, John R N R 22.4
18 Otto, John R Y R 43.6
19 White, James R N R 52.7
20 Farney, Marsha R N R 45.2
21 Phelan, Dade R N R 45.9
22 Deshotel, Joe D N D 33.3
23 Faircloth, Wayne D N R 10.3
24 Bonnen, Greg R N R 47.6
25 Bonnen, Dennis R N R 42.0
26 Miller, Rick R N R 32.6
27 Reynolds, Ron D N D 36.1
28 Zerwas, John R N R 34.3
29 Thompson, Ed R N R 28.3
30 Morrison, Geanie R N R 40.9
31 Guillen, Ryan D N D 19.0
32 Hunter, Todd R N R 17.6
33 Turner, Scott R Y R 48.1
34 Herrero, Abel D N D 06.7
35 Longoria, Oscar D N D 27.5
36 Muñoz Jr., Sergio D N D 44.0
37 Oliveira, René D N D 29.8
38 Lucio III, Eddie D N D 25.1
39 Martinez, Armando "Mando" D N D 42.4
40 Canales, Terry D N D 48.4
41 Guerra, Robert "Bobby" D N D 09.4
42 Raymond, Richard D N D 45.3
43 Lozano, Jose Manuel R N R 6.8
44 Kuempel, John R N R 40.0
45 Isaac, Jason R N R 14.1
46 Dukes, Dawnna D N D 55.4
47 Workman, Paul R N R 18.1
48 Howard, Donna D N D 18.2
49 Naishtat, Elliott D N D 46.3
50 Israel, Celia D N D 18.1
51 Rodriguez, Eddie D N D 59.5
52 Gonzales, Larry R N R 14.3
53 Murr, Andrew R N R 55.3
54 Aycock, Jimmie Don R Y R 15.9
55 White, Molly R N R 38.5
56 Anderson, Charles "Doc" R N R 42.8
57 Ashby, Trent R N R 48.2
58 Burns, Dewayne R N R 55.7
59 Sheffield, J.D. R N R 56.0
60 Keffer, Jim R Y R 65.7
61 King, Phil R N R 64.6
62 Phillips, Larry R N R 49.5
63 Parker, Tan R N R 48.5
64 Crownover, Myra R Y R 23.7
65 Simmons, Ron R N R 21.7
66 Shaheen, Matt R N R 27.0
67 Leach, Jeff R N R 26.7
68 Springer, Drew R N R 61.8
69 Frank, James R N R 51.4
70 Sanford, Scott R N R 43.1
71 King, Susan R Y R 56.2
72 Darby, Drew R N R 55.7
73 Miller, Doug R N R 58.9
74 Nevárez, Alfonso "Poncho" D N D 11.2
75 González, Mary D N D 39.4
76 Blanco, César D N D 50.3
77 Marquez, Marisa D Y D 24.9
78 Moody, Joe D N D 03.1
79 Pickett, Joe D N D 24.0
80 King, Tracy D N D 30.4
81 Landgraf, Brooks R N R 55.4
82 Craddick, Tom R N R 64.4
83 Burrows, Dustin R N R 60.0
84 Frullo, John R N R 35.9
85 Stephenson, Phil R N R 26.8
86 Smithee, John R N R 68.4
87 Price, Four R N R 58.0
88 King, Ken R N R 65.2
89 Laubenberg, Jodie R N R 37.5
90 Romero Jr., Ramon D N D 46.5
91 Klick, Stephanie R N R 38.4
92 Stickland, Jonathan R N R 26.8
93 Krause, Matt R N R 24.5
94 Tinderholt, Tony R N R 24.3
95 Collier, Nicole D N D 51.1
96 Zedler, Bill R N R 18.1
97 Goldman, Craig R N R 21.5
98 Capriglione, Giovanni R N R 52.6
99 Geren, Charlie R N R 37.4
100 Johnson, Eric D N D 51.9
101 Turner, Chris D N D 26.5
102 Koop, Linda R N R 12.7
103 Anchia, Rafael D N D 38.8
104 Alonzo, Roberto D N D 40.9
105 Anderson, Rodney R N R 10.6
106 Fallon, Pat R N R 39.3
107 Sheets, Kenneth R N R 8.3
108 Meyer, Morgan R N R 21.1
109 Giddings, Helen D N D 61.8
110 Rose, Toni D N D 75.2
111 Davis, Yvonne D N D 52.0
112 Button, Angie Chen R N R 17.1
113 Burkett, Cindy R N R 10.4
114 Villalba, Jason R N R 15.6
115 Rinaldi, Matt R N R 17.5
116 Martinez Fischer, Trey D N D 19.7
117 Galindo, Rick D N R 00.9
118 Farias, Joe D Y D 09.4
119 Gutierrez, Roland D N D 18.0
120 McClendon, Ruth Jones D Y D 24.2
121 Straus, Joe R N R 26.0
122 Larson, Lyle R N R 39.5
123 Bernal, Diego D N D 21.8
124 Minjares, Ina D N D 18.3
125 Rodriguez, Justin D N D 15.4
126 Harless, Patricia R Y R 30.8
127 Huberty, Dan R N R 41.6
128 Smith, Wayne R N R 47.6
129 Paul, Dennis R N R 32.5
130 Fletcher, Allen R Y R 55.3
131 Allen, Alma D N D 65.3
132 Schofield, Mike R N R 25.1
133 Murphy, Jim R N R 41.7
134 Davis, Sarah R N R 14.5
135 Elkins, Gary R N R 23.5
136 Dale, Tony R N R 13.5
137 Wu, Gene D N D 18.3
138 Bohac, Dwayne R N R 25.3
139 Turner, Sylvester D Y D 48.8
140 Walle, Armando D N D 37.4
141 Thompson, Senfronia D N D 72.9
142 Dutton Jr., Harold D N D 53.5
143 Hernandez Luna, Ana D N D 32.8
144 Peña, Gilbert D N R 00.8
145 Alvarado, Carol D N D 17.7
146 Miles, Borris D N D 55.3
147 Coleman, Garnet D N D 57.2
148 Farrar, Jessica Cristina D N D 14.0
149 Vo, Hubert D N D 10.3
150 Riddle, Debbie R N R 41.5

 

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