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Inside Intelligence: About Those House Runoffs...

For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked for predictions on the 11 House races on the May 27 primary runoff ballots.

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The 11 House races on the May ballot end our look at the runoffs through the eyes of our insiders in government and politics.

The undecided numbers were high in a lot of these races, most of which are Republican primaries in districts where the incumbents decided not to seek re-election. The incumbent on the list — Rep. Stefani Carter, R-Dallas — is in trouble, coming in second in a race for re-election after initially saying she would run for the Railroad Commission instead of the House. The insiders overwhelmingly think Linda Koop will win that race.

Another race of interest is on the Democratic ballot in El Paso, where former Rep. Norma Chávez finished behind newcomer Cesar Blanco in the first round (and both finished ahead of the incumbent, Naomi Gonzalez). Most of the insiders think Blanco is the candidate to beat in the runoff.

We collected verbatim remarks along the way and a full set is attached. Here are some excerpts:


Who will win the HD-76 Democratic Texas House runoff?

• "Haven't the voters of El Paso rejected Norma Chavez before?"

• "Blanco will win. That said, I do miss Norma's free beer."

• "Austin -vs- Mostyn == Norma. She's tanned, rested and ready."

Who will win the HD-105 Democratic Texas House runoff?

• "This runoff race is over. Motley wins by a landslide."

• "$ vs. Hispanic surname?"

Who will win the HD-10 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "All the way with Wray."

• "This one could go either way. Wray has the establishment support but Fabby has the Tea Party mystique. In a runoff, I would normally give the edge to the Tea but Wray seems like a legit candidate, so he may be able to pull it out."


Who will win the HD-16 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "There is a civil war amongst two Tea Party factions in this area. This race could go either way. Creighton was smart not to run again because he would've lost to either Metcalf or Seago."

• "Two good guys running, which you can't say is happening in every runoff."

Who will win the HD-53 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "The fact that the Kerr County attorney could only muster 29% in a district where Kerrville is the largest city suggests that this seat will go to Murr."

• "The lobby chose Henneke early and they chose wrong. Murr won 10 of 12 counties and almost bested Henneke in his home county. Henneke simply doesn't have the base of support that Murr enjoys throughout the district, and this is not the kind of district you win in the mailbox."

• "This one was surprising. Not being from a population center did not seem to hurt Murr in March, when he led the field with room to spare and nearly beat Henneke in his own home county. That should give Murr the inside track in May."

Who will win the HD-58 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "Eby surprised many by making the runoff, but Johnson County Republicans are circling the wagons behind Burns and Eby's lack of experience will catch up with him. Burns wins going away."

• "Be good to have a Dewayne in the house. It's a good 'Merican name."

• "This race is pretty similar to Wray/Fabby and could go either way. Eby's Tea connections puts the wind at his back in a runoff, but Burns is a serious contender and has a legitimate chance to pull it out in May."


Who will win the HD-66 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "This is one of those rare occasions where both candidates deserve to be sent to Austin. I hope the loser finds another district to run in next cycle."

• "Shaheen never stops working"

Who will win the HD-102 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "It's bad to lose one of the few African Americans in the Republican Party, but it will be great for public policy."

• "I know everyone in Austin hopes it's Koop -- GOP, DEM, Liberal, Conservative and Agnostics. All want Koop."

• "Proven conservative record in the State House"

• "Carter bungled this from the start; I give the edge to Koop."

Who will win the HD-108 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "Meyer may raise more money than anyone imagined, but the Westcott machine will see this one through."

• "Meyer almost won on election day. I would guess that means he wins the runoff."

• "Thurston Howell, III"


Who will win the HD-129 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "Berg has strong ties to the local women's clubs in her district and has been working with the grassroots for a long time. Paul can write a check and has the Republican Taliban Slate Cards on his side. I'm looking forward the Hotze' commercials."

• "This runoff pits two current SREC members against one another. Both are active in the local Rotary club. Both are well known and well liked. This has been a very tough choice for voters who would be okay with either candidate. But I think that Sheryl has put in much more door-to-door time and effort so I predict Sheryl will win in overtime. ."

Who will win the HD-132 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "As they say in the Valley, 'ese arroz ya está cocido.' That rice is cooked. Time for all lobbyists to write a Schofield check."

• "The conservatives will work hard to make sure Mike is elected."

• "Schofield's victory will be a sad day for Katy and a beacon of hope for future carpetbaggers"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Terri Burke, David Cabrales, Kerry Cammack, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Chad Crow, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Jack Erskine, Jon Fisher, Neftali Garcia, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Billy Howe, Deborah Ingersoll, Jason Johnson, Bill Jones, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Tim Lambert, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Dan McClung, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Allen Place, Royce Poinsett, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Ted Melina Raab, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Jeff Rotkoff, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Todd Smith, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

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