Inside Intelligence: About Those House Incumbents...
For this week's nonscientific survey of government and political insiders, we asked about four House contests where incumbents find themselves in runoffs.
The insiders continued their forecasts on runoffs again this week, looking at incumbent House members who find themselves in reelection runoffs. Overall, the insiders are sticking with the incumbents, but they're closely divided in a couple of races.
Most, 74 percent, think Chuck Hopson will win his runoff, and 57 percent think Jim Landtroop will win his. Sid Miller got a confidence vote from 54 percent, and J.M. Lozano is favored in his race by 52 percent of the insiders.
We've included their verbatim comments on the races below:
Who do you think would win an HD-11 runoff held today?
• "Certainly hope Chuck pulls through--thoughtful guy who sincerely tries his best for his district."
• "Clardy represents the heavy population side of the reconfigured district. Longtime Nac R's don't like Hopson party switcher."
• "One thing I know for sure: you should never count Chuck Hopson out."
• "Landslide Hopson has endured nothing but close races!"
• "The grassroots are unhappy with Hopson's LIBERAL votes and don't trust his party change."
• "Hopson's base is solid."
• "Hopson is at his best as a politician when his back is against the wall."
• "The sheriff's race in Nacogdoches is over and will not bring out the same turnout for Travis; therefore, Chuck wins."
• "Republicans won't turn out in a runoff to vote for a Democrat over Clardy. They remember."
Who do you think would win an HD-43 runoff held today?
• "Will the curse of the Spanish surname rise again in a Republican race?"
• "Does JM have enough consultants?"
• "This one is a tough race to call. We just don't know how the Lozano name will affect the outcome. It's tough to be an Hispanic candidate in GOP primaries."
• "Lozano will soon have more time to rock his son to sleep."
• "No idea"
• "J.M. ran a crappy campaign.... fired his campaign consultant (Murphy/Turner should have been fired months ago!) And J.M. is now trying to find his message. Too little too late. Bill wins."
• "Wilson wins is the is the opinion of smart S. Texas politicos"
Who do you think would win an HD-67 runoff held today?
• "What world do we live in when Sid Miller is no longer seen as conservative enough?"
• "If Republicans don't stand for cutting education while forcing paternalistic laws upon sexually active women, then the world has no meaning anymore."
• "Sheffield wins as part of the new district was held by Ralph Sheffield...people don't know this other new name (miller) and will vote again for the same person they have been voting for (Sheffield; although the wrong person). Sheffield wins."
Who do you think would win an HD-88 runoff held today?
• "The population center-if you can call it that-in this remote W. Texas district favors King."
• "Landtroop is a nobody...Ken has the money. Ken wins."
• "I think Landtroop's lack of true South Plains connection plays against him, finally."
Our thanks to this week's participants: Lisa Kaufman, Russ Keane, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Parker McCollough, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Craig Murphy, Pat Nugent, Sylvia Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Bill Pewitt, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Jay Propes, Karen Reagan, Jeff Rotkoff, Mark Sanders, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Dee Simpson, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Charles Stuart, Michael Quinn Sullivan, sherry sylvester, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Trey Trainor, Ware Wendell, Darren Whitehurst, Michael Wilt, Seth Winick, Alex Winslow, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli, Cathie Adams, Jenny Aghamalian, Doc Arnold, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Mike Barnett, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Hugh Brady, Chris Britton, Andy Brown, Blaine Bull, Kerry Cammack, Thure Cannon, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Rick Cofer, John Colyandro, Harold Cook, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Scott Dunaway, David Dunn, Jeff Eller, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Norman Garza, Bruce Gibson, Scott Gilmore, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, Alan Gray, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Adam Haynes, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones.
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