Oh, Kay!

Kay Bailey Hutchison pulled the trigger, announcing in a letter to her supporters that she won't seek reelection in 2012.

That's not a surprise, exactly, but it wasn't exactly expected, either. Hutchison, who took office after a 1993 special election, lost last year's GOP primary for governor — decisively, and after spending more than the incumbent, Rick Perry. That race spoiled her reputation as the most popular pol in Texas, and her equivocating about quitting or staying in the Senate seat cemented her reputation for waffling.

What's more, she emptied her federal account into her state campaign account to make the governor's race and hasn't moved to replenish that treasury. Campaign finance reports come out next week, and Hutchison's is likely to show that she hasn't been preparing for another run. At the end of September, she had $52,053 in the till. That's less than Roger Williams, Elizabeth Ames Jones or Florence Shapiro — three of the Republicans who've been coveting her job.

Hutchison's timing, whether it was based on the campaign finance deadlines or biorhythms or plate tectonics, plays well for candidates like Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and most other statewide officeholders, and badly for members of Congress and others who'll be on the ballot in 2012 and have to choose between running for Senate or for the jobs they have now.

Since there will be new redistricting maps in 2012, all 31 state senators will be on the ballot (they usually alternate, with 15 on the ballot one year and 16 the next); anyone in that body will have to chose between their current job and a possible promotion. Jones, a railroad commissioner, is up for reelection in 2012. But her agency is on the block and lawmakers are considering a proposal to replace the three elected commissioners with just one. That could put Michael Williams, another commissioner who wants Hutchison's job, in the same boat. He would otherwise have the luxury of running knowing that his other job was there as a safety net.

Other tire-kickers who immediately surfaced include former Comptroller John Sharp and former congressman and gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell, both Democrats. Chet Edwards, who lost his reelection race for congress in November, is on that list but hasn't directly expressed an interest. On the Republican side, there's Dewhurst, Jones, Williams 1 and Williams 2, Shapiro, former Solicitor General Ted Cruz, outgoing Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, footballer-turned-announcer Craig James, U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul of Austin, who could finance the race with a call to his in-laws, and probably — almost certainly — others.

Not on the list: Bill White, the former Houston mayor who was in the Senate race a year ago before dropping it to run for governor, and Attorney General Greg Abbott, who's more likely to wait for the governor's job to open up.

And don't discount the people you haven't heard of yet, who might have the money and the ego to jump into the limelight.

Hutchison kicked the Democrats a little by not resigning early. The competition now is on the Republican side, and a Democrat who might make an interesting race of a special election with candidates of all parties will probably have a harder time in a general election with just one Republican in the competition.

Dewhurst starts with the edge on the GOP side. He's got money and the first six months of an odd-numbered year are the peak months of power for a Lite Guv in Texas. State officeholders are prohibited from raising money for state campaigns while the Legislature is in session. They're allowed to do it for federal races, but it would raise questions about influence-peddling and cause trouble for someone like Dewhurst. No matter: He's the bleeping lieutenant governor. Others are free to raise money, but Dewhurst's presence will put questions in the minds of donors. Why contribute against a rich guy? Or a sitting lieutenant governor during a session? Or a member of the Legislative Redistricting Board in a year when maps are being drawn? It's a tap on the brakes at a time when poorer candidates need gas.

Say Dewhurst moves on. His job was last open to other Republicans in 1998, and the names are already floating: Comptroller Susan Combs, Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples, state Sens. Dan Patrick, Jane Nelson, and Shapiro. That's just a short list, but it's early — there could be 31 senators in this before this is over.

If you get bored watching legislation this session, there'll be plenty of politics. Redistricting is the main bit, especially with four new congressional seats on the plate. Now there's the prospect of a mess of open statewide offices for the first time, really, since George W. Bush went to Washington.

Opening Week — The Lege

Gov. Rick Perry named eminent domain and property rights, and the abolition of sanctuary cities as his first two emergency items. Those are the things that can be considered during what is otherwise a ban on votes on legislation during the first 60 days of a session. Expect voter ID to be added to the list soon — maybe on the governor's inauguration, maybe in his State of the State speech later this month.

• Joe Straus, after a weeks of roiling water and swirling mud, won a second term as speaker of the Texas House. Fifteen members voted against him. That's the sort of vote that gets memorialized. Think of the Dirty Thirty, or the Craddick D's or the ABCs. This vote was unusual in that one group was voting for Straus and another was voting against him — not for another candidate, but against him. The 15 members of the No Joe Gang: Leo Berman of Tyler, Cindy Burkett of Mesquite, Erwin Cain of Como, Wayne Christian of Center, Dan Flynn of Van, Phil King of Weatherford, Jim Landtroop of Plainview, Jodie Laubenberg of Parker, Tan Parker of Flower Mound, Ken Paxton of McKinney, Charles Perry of Lubbock, David Simpson of Longview, Van Taylor of Plano, James White of Lufkin, and Bill Zedler of Arlington. Three members didn't vote for or against Straus: Yvonne Davis of Dallas, Bryan Hughes of Mineola, and Jason Isaac of Dripping Springs (Hughes and Isaac voted as official abstentions; Davis, although she was sitting at her desk, simply didn't vote). The No-Joes include seven freshmen members and eight veterans. All are Republicans; if you include the abstentions, it's ten vets, eight freshmen, and one Democrat (Davis).

• Sen. Steve Ogden, R-Bryan, asked for no more than three nominating speeches for his run as the Senate's President Pro Tempore, cutting into a longstanding practice of gasbagging the nominee with speeches from almost everyone in the room. A grateful public welcomes the change.

• Does the speaker's race put the lie to the clout of the right wing in legislative politics, or did they establish the toehold they needed to become a factor? Tea party candidates had mixed results in the March primaries and the November high tide — though everyone is claiming credit for it — put Republicans in perches even their own people didn't expect them to win. Only 18 members of the House didn't vote for Straus and only 15 of those actually voted against him (the others sat this one out). All 48 of the remaining House Democrats could have joined in and voted against Straus and he still would have won. How's that a show of strength?

• Straus appointed a committee that'll assemble the facts in the Donna Howard-Dan Neil race, an election contest that has been appealed to the full House. That committee will hand its findings to Rep. Will Hartnett, R-Dallas, who's the "master" in this case, and he'll make a recommendation to the House. Howard, D-Austin, won her reelection bid by a dozen votes. Neil says Travis County officials didn't count everything they should have.

Opening Week — The Budget

The House will uncork its opening budget on Tuesday, and it's likely to be the worst case budget you see this year. Appropriations Chairman Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie, says it'll include cuts, "less state employees", and is being written to balance within the revenue the comptroller laid out and without using any of the state's Rainy Day Fund. It'll be ugly. "Everybody is going to have some problem with it," Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst said after Pitts' remarks. "Then we can go through the process." You might liken to a hostage incident: Take them all up front and release the lucky ones between now and the end of the session. It's as close as lawmakers will come to looking like they saved something in a session when most of the finance news is going to be grim. Dewhurst told reporters the initial budget would eliminate 8,000 positions in state government.

• The distance between what the state has in general revenue now and what it had two years ago is small, but there are two big differences. One is the federal stimulus money used in the last budget. That's not here any more. The other is the growth in population and inflation that would keep current programs chugging along as they have been.

• A crack has emerged in the Republican "no new taxes" pledge, with state officials indicating a willingness to revise the state's gross margins tax to bring in the revenue it was supposed to bring in when it was created in 2006. The levy, also called the franchise tax, falls a couple of a billion dollars short of the target. Ogden raised the possibility of fixing it and tried out the argument that doing so wouldn't be the same as raising taxes. A day later, Gov. Rick Perry said he didn't want to get into a semantic game with reporters about it, but didn't say no to a fix, either. And Lt. Gov. Dewhurst says he's with Ogden, and that increasing the amount of money coming from the franchise tax isn't a tax increase, if the increase is designed the tax to perform as originally advertised. Dewhurst added a postscript, acknowledging the trouble with getting anything that smells like a tax out of the building. "If our assumptions were wrong, let's go back and look at it... I don't know that the Legislature would do anything about it."

• Pitts isn't going along with the franchise tax fix, but said at a Texas Tribune TribLive interview that he's supportive of casino gambling in the state as a way to raise revenue. He'd leave the final say to local option votes where casinos were proposed.

Supply Lines

A federal judge in McAllen sentenced Jesus Quintanilla, a 26-year-old U.S. citizen, to more than three years in prison after he was found guilty of the straw purchase of 13 weapons intended for a Mexican cartel member.

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives announced last month it was considering requiring that federal firearms dealers in Texas, Arizona, California and New Mexico report to the agency any time they sell more than one semi-automatic long rifle to the same person in a week. Quintanilla, whose purchases included nine AK-47s, is the type of criminal ATF agents said they hope to focus on. They claim that the amount of these types of firearms found at crime scenes in Mexico has increased by more than 100 percent since 2004. The policy could go into effect as early as this month.

Also this week, a high-ranking soldier stationed at Fort Hood in Killeen was sentenced to three years probation after admitting he attempted to smuggle weapons into Mexico. Army Sgt. Manuel Zamora Mendoza told a federal judge in Laredo he was taking a cache of weapons and ammunition to his family in the small village of El Jasmine, according to a report in the Laredo Morning Times. Zamora, who has served in the Army for more than 20 years, said he was also going to deliver some weapons and ammo to the town's mayor. The town, he told the court, has no police force.

Inside Intelligence: Capitol Insecurity

The session started with a lopsided but vitriolic race for speaker, three days after the shootings in Arizona, and in a Texas Capitol that, for the first time, has armed troopers and airport-style security checkpoints at every public entrance. So this week, we asked about the bunker mentality, whether it's appropriate, who ought to be protected on a regular basis, and whether a concealed handgun permit should be the fast-pass for the seat of state government.

Our open question this week: "Capitol security is a response to real and perceived threats of violence to public officials and others. To what extent do political rhetoric and the current political atmosphere feed that kind of violence and fear?" Here are a few of the insiders' answers (the full set can be seen here):

• "We have fought two wars in this country because of heated political rhetoric, e.g., 'Common Sense,' the Declaration of Independence, and the seditious screeds before the Civil War. Are we really supposed to believe that cable news is making us all murderous?"

• "Tons. We always overreach in these situations."

• "Political rhetoric doesn't kill. Nut jobs kill. Thank God the lobbyists will all be armed this session."

• "My answer has changed since last Saturday. I do believe that Capitol Security is now a bigger issue."

• "We managed to get through reconstruction, the Depression, civil rights, and Viet Nam without metal detectors. Some folks just want to carry guns everywhere and all this rhetoric lets them do that."

• "Divisive and angry rhetoric can do a lot of damage (angry rhetoric can also do good, by the way), but I don't believe it can make a person go crazy and shoot up a crowd."

• "There is a strong evidence that the two are linked. At the tea party rally on Monday, some speakers railed against the 'tyranny of government' even while the Legislature was preparing for the peaceful transfer of power -- it wasn't like Jim Dunnam was barricaded in his office with semiautomatic weapons refusing to leave office. There can be no tyranny if the people can vote in free elections and the results of those elections are honored by all participants. The tea party is the militia movement of the 21st century and to think otherwise is naive."

• "Hugely. The situation has gotten ridiculous. And all the 'security' in the world is not going to protect us from the one deranged individual who slips by or has a concealed weapon permit. Speaking of which, it is monstrous for the state to give priority Capitol access to people with concealed weapons permits without making an alternative certification available to those who can't afford the weapon permit or who object to it (like pacifists)."

• "Hate speech and anger isn't healthy for society, but it isn't the reason crazy people do crazy things."

• "I think the political atmosphere could play a part in some cases, but in general this is something that has always been in the air. I mean, an anarchist shot Garfield in 1881, right? Crazy people will find a way."

• "Political rhetoric definitely feeds fear and is intended to raise anger to a level where people believe they must 'take action.' It probably leads to more threats of violence than actual acts of violence, but since you cannot predict which threats will be carried out, precautionary measures become necessary. However, allowing people who have a handgun license to slip through an expedited line makes a mockery of 'security' at the Capitol."

• "None"

• "The media is filled with extremist messages that is meant to provoke, anger, enrage and incite. History tells us that the use of this language by political 'leaders', organizers and folks who have both a microphone and an audience only exacerbates the tensions and feeds the divisiveness in our society."

• "Present political rhetoric is no more vitriolic than it was 10 or 100 years ago. It's a red herring."

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Tom DeLay, the former U.S. House majority leader and redistricting mastermind, was sentenced to three years in jail for conspiring to launder corporate money for use in Texas political campaigns. Judge Pat Priest also put the Hammer on 10 years probation but suspended a five-year sentence for a money-laundering charge. Dick DeGuerin, DeLay's attorney, promised an appeal.

• The Texas Forensic Science Commission finally heard from arson experts on the validity of the case against Cameron Todd Willingham, convicted and executed for setting a fire that killed his three daughters. The case has been under review by the commission for two years and has generated interest among death penalty opponents hoping to prove that Texas executed an innocent man. The commission is still looking for answers to questions surrounding the accuracy of fire science used in the original investigation in 1991.

• The Sunset Advisory Commission issued final recommendations ahead of the start of legislative action, suggesting major restructuring for a number of Texas agencies. Bills containing the changes will now have to pass through the Legislature. Sunset commissioners want to eliminate the Texas Transportation Commission and replace the panel with one appointed commissioner. The Sunset panel also recommended merging the troubled Texas Youth Commission with the Texas Juvenile Probation Commission into one youth justice department. And they want two fewer statewide elected officials, saying the Railroad Commission should be renamed the Texas Oil & Gas Commission and headed by one elected official instead of three.

• The state has shut down Daystar Residential Inc., a home for troubled youth, following a homicide ruling issued in the latest incident at the facility. The Texas Department of Family and Protective Services has revoked Daystar's license and moved all of the state's foster children housed there following an incident in which a staffer physically restrained a 16-year-old, who later died. The incident followed numerous allegations of abuse of other foster children at the facility, which were later confirmed, and a scathing report written by a state monitor criticizing Daystar's policies and frequent use of restraints. The Manvel facility had been in operation since 1995 and had cared for up to 141 children. At the time of closure, five children from California were residing at the home.

• The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals put an end to a Houston judge's hearing on the constitutionality of the death penalty after the Harris County district attorney's office moved in December to stop the proceeding. The case of John Edward Green, who could be facing the death penalty on charges stemming from a 2008 robbery and murder, prompted the judge to open the hearing, but the district attorney's office alleged, and the appellate court agreed, that the defendant had no standing unless he was convicted and sentenced to death.

Political People and Their Moves

Denise Voigt Crawford is retiring after 17 years as Texas securities commissioner and 29 at the State Securities Board. John Morgan, the deputy commissioner, is also retiring at the end of February. He's been at the board since 1983 and has been in his current post for 14 years. The board will consider replacements in mid-February.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed A. Cynthia "Cindy" Leon of Mission to the Texas Public Safety Commission. She is a retired regional director for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The governor appointed Laurie Fontana of Houston and Shannon McClendon of Dripping Springs to the Texas Appraiser Licensing and Certification Board for terms to expire Jan. 31, 2012. The board adopts rules for the licensing and certification of real estate appraisers in the state. Fontana is a licensed real estate appraiser and owner of LF Appraisal and Consulting, L.L.C. McClendon is a shareholder and attorney at Webking McClendon PC.

Perry also appointed Stephanie Simmons of Missouri City and John Youngblood of Cameron to the Risk Management Board. Simmons is an attorney and owner of Simmons Legal Consultants, and a certified mediator.

Quotes of the Week

Clarence Dupnik, sheriff of Pima County, Arizona, after a gunman killed six people and injured 19 more, including a congresswoman: "When you look at unbalanced people, how they respond to the vitriol that comes out of certain mouths about tearing down the government. The anger, the hatred, the bigotry that goes on in this country is getting to be outrageous. And unfortunately, Arizona I think has become sort of the capital. We have become the mecca for prejudice and bigotry."

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, on whether he's mulling a shot at the U.S. Senate following Thursday's announcement from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison that she will not seek re-election, to reporters: "I am really focused right now on the session. I've got my plate full. What I do after the session I'll look at that once we've had a very successful session. So I will be glad to talk to you more about that in June or July."

Dewhurst, in a statement a couple of hours later: "While my focus remains on the challenges we face here at the state level and making this upcoming session successful, I fully intend to explore running for the United States Senate, and should I run, I will run with the intention of winning and continuing to serve the people of Texas just as I have done throughout my career."

Gov. Rick Perry on how the Texas Legislature plans to abolish "sanctuary cities" in Texas, which he declared an emergency item during the current legislative session, to reporters at the Capitol: "I don't know yet. We'll write the legislation over the next 140 days."

Perry, addressing the looming budget shortfall, on Wednesday: "There have been the proponents of Armageddon speaking for a long time. Every legislative session, there is some group somewhere that says the sky is falling. The good news is the sky hasn't fallen yet."

Tom DeLay, addressing the court before his sentencing on Monday: "It's dangerous to our system. Just because somebody disagrees with you — it's not enough to ruin your reputation. They have to put you in jail, bankrupt you, destroy your family."

U.S. House Rules Committee Chairman David Dreier, R-Calif., who was forced to recess his committee Thursday to determine how to deal with the two congressmen, including U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions of Dallas, who had voted without taking their oaths of office: "We're in uncharted waters."

New Mexico State University librarian Molly Molloy, on why she keeps a daily tally on the homicides in Ciudad Juarez and gets irked when newspapers underreport the figure, to The Texas Tribune: "I think they owe it to both their readers here in the United States who are concerned about this issue and they certainly owe it to the people of Mexico and the people of Juárez to do an accurate job of reporting this terrible violence, because these are people's lives."

Sen. John Whitmire, D-Houston, on the practice of issuing criminal citations to students in schools, quoted in The Texas Tribune: "It's just nuts. There just has to be a recognition that this is out of control."

Economist Paul Krugman, writing in The New York Times: "The truth is that the Texas state government has relied for years on smoke and mirrors to create the illusion of sound finances in the face of a serious 'structural' budget deficit — that is, a deficit that persists even when the economy is doing well. When the recession struck, hitting revenue in Texas just as it did everywhere else, that illusion was bound to collapse."

The Court of Criminal Appeals, denying accused killer John Edward Green's pre-trial challenge to the death penalty: "One does not put the cart before the horse. A defendant has no claim of wrongful conviction or wrongful sentencing before he has even gone to trial."

Clarence Dupnik, sheriff of Pima County, Arizona, in the Tucson Citizen, after last weekend's shootings there: "The anger, the hatred, the bigotry that goes on in this country is getting to be outrageous, and unfortunately Arizona has become sort of the capital. We have become the mecca for prejudice and bigotry. The fiery rhetoric that has taken hold in politics may be free speech, but it's not without consequences."

Contributors: Julian Aguilar, Reeve Hamilton, Ceryta Lockett, David Muto and Morgan Smith

---

Texas Weekly: Volume 28, Issue 2, 17 January 2011. Ross Ramsey, Editor. Copyright 2011 by The Texas Tribune. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (512) 716-8605 or email biz@texasweekly.com. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com, or call (512) 716-8611.