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With new candidates announcing bids for state office almost daily and longtime legislators announcing they will not be seeking re-election, Texas is already gearing up for the 2016 primary election. Although there has been no news from the U.S. District Court in San Antonio in an ongoing case involving the constitutionality of district lines, a decision in the next year could delay the election or require a special legislative session.  

Perez v. Perry

In 2011, State Rep. Harold Dutton Jr., D-Houston, and Bexar County Resident Shannon Perez sued the top Texas legislators at the time – Gov. Rick Perry, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Speaker of the House Joe Straus and Texas Secretary of State Hope Andrade. In their lawsuit, Dutton and Perez said the district lines drawn after the publication of the 2010 Census included dramatic population disparities and were therefore unconstitutional. 

The U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas, San Antonio Division, first heard the case in January 2012, and they ordered a new interim plan to be drawn for the 2012 elections. The state later requested the case be dismissed, but the court declined their request. Since then, the court has made little noise regarding the progress of the case. It has remained silent since 2014, when it last heard evidence.

Michael Li, redistricting counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University School of Law, said it is unclear whether the court will issue a decision before the 2016 primary election filing period begins in November. 

“It literally could come down any day,” Li said. “It’s been a year, they’ve had a lot of time to look at this… I’m not sure if there is a window and then another window, but a ruling could come down any day — or it could be next year.” 

Why has no ruling been issued? 

Li said he was surprised the court has yet to issue a ruling, although he said there has been speculation the court is waiting for the Supreme Court to resolve other redistricting cases before ruling. 

"That is a possible reason why they might delay, but those decisions are unlikely to come down until the spring, so that would be a pretty long delay,” Li said “But all of that is just speculation because the court has stayed very silent on this. It’s a little mysterious.”

Which way is the court leaning? 

Although he acknowledged it was challenging to predict court decisions, Li said some of the judges seemed “skeptical” of what happened. 

"When Texas drew the maps in 2011, the Legislature was pretty aggressive and they dried to draw in a Republican supermajority, but the problem is that it’s hard, even where people live in Texas, to draw a super majority without disadvantaging African Americans and Hispanics,” Li said. “I think the court, at least two of the judges on there, are fairly skeptical of what happened. Whether they decide that it results in a legal violation or not — it’s hard to say.” 

What if the court rules the redistricting was unconstitutional? 

If the court takes issue with the maps, Li said they would likely give the Legislature the opportunity to redraw the district lines — which could delay the primary election, time permitting. 

“They might say the Legislature has 60 days to fix the maps, then it would be up to Governor Abbott to see if he would want to call a special session and give the Legislature that opportunity,” Li said. 

Li said there are a number of other options the court could pursue rather than a special session, including asking political parties to submit proposals or selecting a “special master” to draw maps. 

If the court finds the district lines were intentionally discriminatory, Li said the court could order federal supervision for the state, meaning any election law changes would have to be approved by the justice department or by the court before they can go into effect. 

"What makes this case a little bit more complicated than your normal case is that it is possible the court could rule on the 2011 claims and then say now we’re going to start the process of putting Texas back under federal supervision and then we’ll look at the 2013 claims,” Li said. "The standards are different if you’re under federal supervision than if you’re not. They might use the 2011 claims to put Texas back under federal supervision and then look at the 2013 maps, that is a possibility."

Enlarge Scott Ball

Donald Trump responds to questions during a 2015 trip to Laredo.

Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump is returning to Texas on Monday for his campaign's first rally in the Lone Star State.

The real estate mogul will headline the Sept. 14 event at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. Tickets are being distributed via Ticketmaster.

Trump last stumped in Texas in July, when he took reporters on a whirlwind tour of Laredo in an effort to learn about border issues.

*****

One of the super PACs supporting U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is getting a piece of the action surrounding the Iowa-Iowa State football game Saturday.

The group, known as Keep the Promise I, is airing an ad during the game, which is already bringing several GOP presidential candidates to Ames for a tailgate.

"KTPI is really excited to go on the air with a pro-Cruz ad to kick off football season," Kristina Hernandez, a spokeswoman for the group, wrote in an email Thursday.

Further details about the ad were not available Thursday. Hernandez only said the spot will be "very pro-Cruz, touting his conservatism."

*****

The super PAC propping up Rick Perry's cash-strapped presidential campaign in Iowa is returning to the airwaves there with a new ad buy.

Starting Tuesday, Opportunity and Freedom PAC is running a 30-second spot across the Hawkeye State that touts the former governor's anti-Washington credentials, according to a spokesman for the group, Jordan Russell. The previously released ad highlights Perry's gubernatorial record of having "declared war on Washington."

The spot is airing on cable and satellite TV in major Iowa media markets including Cedar Rapids and Des Moines, Russell said. The ad is part of a six-figure buy that was expected to start after the Labor Day weekend.

With Perry's campaign still struggling to pay staff in Austin and the early voting states, the super PAC has stepped up its involvement in his presidential effort. Last week, the group named Marshall Critchfield its Iowa state director and Beth Hamilton his deputy.

*****

State Sen. Konni Burton, R-Colleyville, announced on Tuesday that she plans to host a forum for the candidates seeking the GOP nomination in the open Senate District 24.

That Senate seat is open after the decision by Troy Fraser, R-Horseshoe Bay, not to seek re-election. The Sept. 22 event will be held at the convention center in Temple. Burton plans to livestream the forum on her website.

“The invitations were mailed last week, and I look forward to seeing all of the candidates at the forum. This will be an opportunity for each candidate to introduce themselves to voters of SD24 and answer questions important to the grassroots. I’m anxious myself to hear the candidates and assess their views on policy questions,” Burton said in a statement.

CJ Grisham, president of Open Carry Texas, tweeted at Burton on Wednesday, saying he would not be able to attend the Sept. 22 event because “God’s schedule is more important than mine.”

Grisham is one of six candidates who have formally announced a bid for the Senate seat. Rep. Susan King announced Tuesday she was considering entering the race and will make a formal decision by the end of the month.

Meanwhile, candidate Brent Mayes indicated he would be attending the forum via Twitter. In a tweet directed at Burton, he said he was looking forward to the event.

*****

Former state Rep. Fred Brown confirmed Friday he is “99 percent sure” he will enter the race for the House District 54 seat, which will be open because of the decision by the incumbent, Jimmie Don Aycock, not to run for re-election. Brown served in the House representing House District 14 for six terms and part of a seventh before stepping down.

“The main reason that I’m doing this is because our district here is losing both our state senator and our state representative, who were both senior members,” Brown said. "If I don’t run and if I don’t win, then we’ll have freshmen in both of those positions and it could be really tough for our district."

If elected, Brown would enter the House as an eighth-term member because of his previous legislative experience. Brown, who will run once again as a Republican, said he would focus on public and higher education issues if he made it into office, emphasizing his willingness to work across party lines.

Brown currently handles community relations for Texans Can Academies and serves as Mayor Pro Tem of Salado.

Enlarge Marjorie Kamys Cotera

(left to right) Assistant Secretary of State for Mexican and Border Affairs Avdiel Huerta, Undersecretary for North American Affairs,Sergio Alcocer Martinez de Castro, Mexican Secretary of Foreign Affairns, José Antonio Meade Kuribreña, Governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, and Texas Secretary of State, Carlos Cascos during a July 9, 2015 meeting at the Governor's Mansion

Gov. Greg Abbott on Tuesday announced a pair of efforts aimed at improving transportation along the state’s international border and harnessing opportunities from Mexico’s reformed energy sector.

Abbott, in Mexico for his first international trip as governor, signed an agreement that he says will “promote and increase bilateral collaboration on future border infrastructure projects.” He also touted a new energy task force to bolster markets on both sides of the border.

The transportation agreement links the Texas Department of Transportation to Mexico’s Ministry of Communications and Transportation, calling for more communication between the agencies, joint research on motor vehicle crossings and partnerships on future road projects.

The energy task force will examine how the two states can work together, now that Mexico has opened its energy sector — ending a 75-year-old policy of isolation.

*****

Trying to boost his fiscal conservatism bona fides, Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush is touting a new budgeting policy at the General Land Office as a weapon to “slay the beast of big government.”

The Republican on Wednesday announced that the General Land Office is ditching “baseline budgeting” for “zero-based budgeting,” which requires planners to start from zero when asking for funds, justifying each dollar they wish to earmark. 

"Zero-based budgeting is my weapon of choice to slay the beast of big government," Bush said. "Texas households have to count dollars and sometimes make do with less. It's only fair that government do the same."

*****

Missing a target by 200 million is not usually something to brag about.

But it's a pretty great outcome when you're trying to guess how much money the state of Texas collects in a year. Comptroller Glenn Hegar happily boasted Thursday that state revenue for the fiscal year ending on August 31 came in at $109.5 billion, 0.2 percent less than the $109.7 billion he had projected in his Biennial Revenue Estimate in January.

“As we predicted, the Texas economy has seen moderate growth despite weakness in the energy sector. The accuracy of our fiscal 2015 estimate provides a firm foundation as we begin to prepare the Certification Revenue Estimate,” Hegar said.

That C.R.E. is expected in December and will be closely watched in particular to see whether Hegar adjusts his predictions for the price of a barrel of oil. Some have argued that Hegar's January estimate in that regard was too optimistic.

*****

HUD Secretary Julián Castro dropped in on Austin on Wednesday to mark the 50th anniversary of the federal agency he oversees — and deflect a few questions about the presidential race he could join as a running mate if speculation turns out to be true.

Castro, the former mayor of San Antonio, repeatedly told reporters after a speech at the University of Texas at Austin that he would not weigh in on the 2016 election. He is rumored to be one of Hillary Clinton's choices for vice president if the former secretary of state wins the Democratic nomination.

*****

State Rep. Bryan Hughes, the Mineola Republican seeking a promotion to the upper chamber, is touting praise from one of the most prized supporters in Texas GOP politics: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.

In an email to supporters Wednesday, Hughes drew attention to comments Cruz made during an event for his presidential campaign last week in Tyler. The remarks came minutes after Hughes endorsed Cruz for president on the same stage.

"Thank you for your incredible support, for your friendship, for your passion, for your willingness to stand and fight for conservative principles and to represent East Texas values," Cruz told Hughes.

*****

In other Cruz news, he named CJ Pearson, a conservative, teen YouTube host from Georgia, as national chairman of “Teens for Ted,” Cruz’s teen coalition.

Wyatt English of Iowa and Adam Hoffman of Texas will serve as the coalition’s co-chairs. The coalition serves to promote Cruz to the youth vote during the 2016 presidential election.

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For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked about how the unofficial "start date" for the campaign season has changed.

Tradition has the political season kicking off after Labor Day although to this reporter, it seemed the candidate announcements started during session and picked up steam with sine die, the end of the legislative session. Nearly half the insiders also pegged sine die as when the political season began this year.

Another 25 percent said the Labor Day start date still holds while 20 percent thought the season won't begin in earnest until the candidate filing period starts in mid-November.

We followed with a question as to who benefits from an earlier start to primary campaigns. Two in five insiders gave the advantage to the challenger while 34 percent said the advantage accrues to the incumbent.

We then asked whether the number of contested GOP primaries would exceed the 58 contested races from a couple of years ago. On this, the insiders were evenly split. Forty-four percent said more, 44 percent said less.

We closed with an open-ended question in which we solicited thoughts on the impact of Donald Trump on Texas primary voters. Please note we didn't specify party ID on that one. We received several dozen answers, with many thought-provoking responses mixed in, the best of which we reprint below.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Tradition has the political season starting with the Labor Day holiday. What’s the start date this year?

• "To say there is a 'start date' implies there is also an end date. Anyone reading this knows our country, and Texas, have been in a state of permanent politics for *at least* 20 years."

• "Always Labor Day! Eat hamburgers with friends and start complaining that nobody competent is leading this country/state/county/city. It's a tradition."

• "It doesn't really end. Except for the political giving... campaigns are now permanent, year-round efforts in and out of session."

• "It started during session when certain folks were making mental lists, voting report cards, etc. In reality, with today's 24/7 news cycle and social media outlets, the political season never ends; it barely even naps."

• "Although the presidential has been going for a while, all the campaigns kicked it up a notch this weekend!"

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Who benefits more from an earlier start to the primary season?

• "Our entire system is built upon incumbent protection."

• "Nobody pays attention to anything until about a month out. So I don't think an earlier start helps anyone, except maybe with fundraising, but that's a mixed bag."

• "An incumbent will always have a competitive advantage regardless of when the primary season starts. However, independently WEALTHY challengers (i.e. Sen. Huffines, Sen. V. Taylor) pose big threats to those incumbents who have failed to actively run a year-round campaign."

• "The challenger gets an advantage by overcoming lower name ID — if he has the money to keep up for the longer term."

• "Short primary season reduces time for challengers to get attention and undermine incumbents."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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There were 58 contested legislative and statewide Republican primaries in 2014. Will there be more or less this year?

• "There are fewer statewide races but look for the same or more Republican legislative primaries."

• "But we should only count the 'real' races where there is some rough parity in funding or other factors that make it a true competition."

• "Too steep a climb for challengers, X factor is how many retirements."

• "Opportunity knocks during presidential cycles. Incumbents be warned."

• "Turns out the 'crazies' were not crazy enough so they will ALL be challenged now."

Open-ended question: What is Donald Trump's effect on Texas primary voters?

• "Motivated bigots do not bode well for establishment Republican candidates. Business is fiddling while Rome burns."

• "Right now, I think he solidifies the extreme right (the build-a-wall crowd) ... and likely drives up turnout. But ... who knows what that dude will say between now and March 1? He could also set a ground-speed record for implosion (which would be hard to do, given Gov. Perry's 2012 effort)"

• "Probably none... he will flame out and Cruz will be the beneficiary."

• "Not as much as he thinks... Texas Republicans pretty much stay with their original choices. I expect Trump will fizzle out some once a few states get to actually vote."

• "Trump encourages and, in a way, legitimizes the Tea Party portion of the debate and of the electorate. Ultimately the voters decide what is important and worthy. Trump may be ridiculed among the insiders, but consider Pappy O'Daniel: plenty of Texas leaders considered him a joke, even as the voters made him Governor and then U.S. Senator."

• "He has resonated with a base of Republicans nationwide, and I think that a lot of that 'base' is the Tea Party in Texas, so he might make a difference in the establishment getting another wake up call."

• "Trump has excited a segment of the GOP primary voting bloc to be sure and will doubtless run well in Texas. He might even secure a plurality but I am skeptical about that with Cruz and Bush there."

• "We'll see when the Primary rolls around but he should be able to knock at least 5 candidates out by the March."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Elna Christopher, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Tom Duffy, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, John Greytok, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Myra Leo, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Bill Pewitt, Tom Phillips, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Ted Melina Raab, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, A.J. Rodriguez, Kim Ross, Jeff Rotkoff, Jason Sabo, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Bruce Scott, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Mark Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Sara Tays, Trey Trainor, David White, Seth Winick, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Friday, Sept. 11

• National Security and Women's Insecurity: Why Women Matter in Foreign Policy; 1002 George Bush Drive West, College Station (9 a.m.-5 p.m.)
  

Saturday, Sept. 12

• Liberty Fest Houston 2015, sponsored by Harris County Libertarian Party; 1750 West Loop South, Houston (8 a.m.-6 p.m.)
• State Rep. Carol Alvarado, D-Houston, State of the District Breakfast; 6815 Rustic St., Houston (9:30 a.m.)

Sunday, Sept. 13

• U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., meet and greet/Texas Democrats fundraiser; 1607 San Jacinto Blvd., Austin (11:30 a.m.)

Monday, Sept. 14

• Donald J. Trump For President Rally; 2500 Victory Ave., Dallas (6 p.m.)
  
• Castro 41st Birthday Celebration for Julián and Joaquin Castro; 1174 E. Commerce, San Antonio (6-8 p.m.)

Wednesday, Sept. 16

• GOP House District 115 candidate Bennett Ratliff fundraiser; 221 W. Sixth St., Austin (4:30-6:30 p.m.)

Thursday, Sept. 17

• Texas Association of Business Higher Education Conference; 701 E. 11th St., Austin (10 a.m.-2 p.m.)
  
• Inauguration ceremony for University of Texas at Austin President Gregory L. Fenves; 2350 Robert Dedman Dr., Austin (3 p.m.)

In back-to-back speeches on Wednesday in Washington, D.C., GOP presidential hopefuls U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and real estate developer Donald Trump showcased their different campaigning styles as they rallied supporters against President Barack Obama's Iran nuclear deal.

A spokeswoman for the Mike Huckabee campaign suggested that Ted Cruz crashed Huckabee's rally on Tuesday in Grayson, Ky., for Kim Davis, the county clerk who was jailed for refusing to issue same-sex marriage licenses.

Plagued by weekly headlines about his dwindling staff, the stench of political death continues to linger around former Gov. Rick Perry, whose rivals have so far struck a deferential tone in response to questions about his campaign struggles.

After spending more than two weeks without a lawyer, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has secured a defense team in the ongoing financial fraud case against him. Veteran Houston criminal lawyer Dan Cogdell and Terri Moore, a former state and federal prosecutor from Fort Worth, have taken on the task of representing Paxton as he faces three felony charges claiming he violated state securities law.

A bill that passed late in the legislative session gave some residents and officials hope that they can kill a controversial water-pumping project in western Hays County. But there's no guarantee that Houston-based Electro Purification won't ultimately be able to proceed with its plan. A variety of factors are at play, including how much the expanded district ultimately will allow the company to pump, and whether the company — or its opponents — will challenge that amount.

Federal regulators have slapped a roughly $50,000 fine on a West Texas oil company six months after a fiery explosion killed three of its workers at a well. On Tuesday, the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration cited Odessa-based Mason Well Service for six violations, including five that are considered “serious” and one that was a “repeat.”

After a federal judge ruled that most women and children being held in Texas immigration detention centers should be released, attorneys say they are making some progress on their clients' cases. But they argue the government is making their work harder because it hasn't established a clear set of rules.

The Texas State University System is experimenting with massive open online courses to allow students to arrive on campus with a full year of credit at minimal cost. The thought is that older students with kids and full-time jobs might benefit the most since they may not have time to take four years out of their lives to attend school.

In a test of Cubans' special immigration status, authorities have observed a spike in Cubans seeking entry to the U.S. through Laredo. From October 2014 to June 2015, more Cubans — 18,520 — have tried to enter the border city than unaccompanied minors — 18,240.

Disagreeing with Dallas-Fort Worth-area water officials, the Texas Water Development Board decided on Wednesday that a years-long conflict over a yet-to-be-built reservoir in the region’s 50-year water plan is serious enough that it should be resolved.

Disclosure: The Texas State University System is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Gov. Greg Abbott announced Thursday that he has reappointed Donna Nelson to the Public Utility Commission for a term expiring in September 2021. Nelson has served on the commission for seven years — four of those as chairman.

Abbott named Jon Niermann of Austin to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality for a term to expire Aug. 31, 2021.

Abbott named Clyde Siebman of Pottsboro as presiding officer of the Grayson County Regional Mobility Authority. His term expires Feb. 1.

Houston Independent School District superintendent Terry Grier announced Thursday afternoon that after six years he's stepping down from his post leading the state's largest school district.

Former state Rep. Lance Gooden announced his plan to seek a rematch against Rep. Stuart Spitzer, R-Kaufman, for House District 4. Gooden held the seat for two terms, but Spitzer won the spot in 2014.

Tony Adkins, an insurance agent from Lovelady, said he will run for the House District 8 seat, a position currently held by Republican Rep. Byron Cook of Corsicana.

State Rep. Travis Clardy, R-Nacogdoches, announced Wednesday his run for a third term in House District 11.

Karen Jacobs, a 20-year resident of Heath, confirmed Friday she will be running for the House District 33 seat in 2016 as a Democrat. Republican Rep. Scott Turner has held the seat for two terms but announced in June he will not be seeking re-election.

State Rep. Jeff Leach, R-Plano, announced he would run for a third term in House District 67.

State Rep. Walter T. "Four" Price, R-Amarillo, said Tuesday that he is running for a fourth term to represent House District 87.

Texas Supreme Court Justice Debra Lehrmann on Wednesday announced that her re-election effort has the backing of state Sen. Donna Campbell; Pat Carlson, former head of the Texas Eagle Forum; Ann Hettinger, state director of Concerned Women for America; and Adrian Murray, co-founder of the 912 project. Also, 18 State Republican Executive Committee (SREC) members have endorsed Lehrmann.

David Barton, a Texas-based evangelical leader who founded the WallBuilders group, has signed on with the network of super PACs working to put U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, in the White House.

State Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Houston, received the endorsement of the Harris County Deputies’ Organization on Thursday in his bid for Houston mayor.

George Kelemen is taking over as president and CEO of the Texas Retailers Association (TRA). He is returning to Texas after more than a dozen years. Most recently, he has served as senior vice president for Airports Council International – North America (ACI-NA), a job he will have until mid-October.

Disclosure: The Texas Retailers Association is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.