For our list of the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' are indicated by an (i). An asterisk (*) indicates an open seat, and those are rated by the apparent competitiveness of top candidates (closer = hotter). This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust as the March 4 primary approaches. Let us know what you think.

Races involving incumbents are listed first; open seats follow.

Changes this week: Results! Winners' names in bold. (We'll start runoffs next week.)

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Enlarge Callie Richmond

Vote signs outside of early voting locations in Austin on Feb. 23, 2014.

I reported on the main Tribune site today on declining turnout numbers in both parties' gubernatorial primaries. The folks I talked with for the story were in agreement that the phenomenon mostly reflects the lack of any barnburner contests in the marquee governor and Senate contests this year.

Researching the piece, I found this interesting bit of information: Democratic turnout was down at twice the rate of the Republicans. But in the five largest counties by population, that flipped. Republican turnout dropped by 15 percent while Democratic turnout dropped by 5 percent.

Both parties experienced steep declines in Harris County. Democratic turnout dropped from 99,000 to 51,000. Republican turnout dropped from 158,000 to 136,000.

But Democrats had big turnout gains in Dallas (up 10,000 votes), Tarrant (up 18,00 votes) and Travis (up 7,000 votes). On the Republican side, turnout was down almost 14,000 in Dallas, 18,000 in Travis, 4,000 in Tarrant and 4,000 in Bexar.

Local dynamics no doubt were a factor here. Travis County, for instance, had a high-profile race for county judge and county commissioner. It's also true, though, that the Democratic Party is becoming more urban-based, a phenomenon that might partially explain these mirror imaging trend lines.

*****

It's an inescapable fact of life for the political pundit that some primary day upsets catch you unawares. This year, it almost happened to us with Lon Burnam's loss to Ramon Romero Jr. in the Tarrant County-based HD-90. It wasn't even on our radar until Burnam's last-minute appeal for people to block-walk the weekend before the election crossed our transom.

We quickly added the contest under the orange category. In retrospect, the Burnam contest should have been on our Hot List a lot sooner. The district was jiggered in the last round of redistricting to favor a Hispanic challenger. Looking back at his 2012 contest, we found that Burnam lost both the early vote and election day vote. He built up a big advantage in absentee ballots, though, and squeaked by with a 159-vote victory out of nearly 4,000 votes cast.

His luck ran out, though, on Tuesday. Burnam, one of the very last old-school liberals in the House, again lost the early vote and the election day vote. But this time, he only received 30 more absentee votes than his challenger and lost by 111 votes out of more than 5,000 cast.

*****

With that said, the loss of HD-94 incumbent Diane Patrick, R-Arlington, did surprise us — not necessarily the result itself but the ease with which she was dispatched. She took just 44.6 percent of the vote and lost to Tony Tinderholt by close to 1,500 votes.

Patrick was the vice chairwoman of the Higher Education Committee, and her professional background — she was a former public school teacher and college professor — informed her legislative ambit.

She was one of several public policy-oriented incumbents to lose on Tuesday. The Dallas Morning News' editorial board ended up writing an institutional editorial on the losses of John Carona, Linda Harper-Brown and Bennett Ratliff titled "The Vanquished Ideas People."

Here's what the board wrote:

"Then there are those who steep themselves in the excruciating details of policy and the ways of putting it into place. They are the ideas people. They carry the institutional knowledge that’s passed from session to session and makes the Capitol a smarter place.

"If only their value to the state were clear to voters whose heads are brimming with campaign slogans on Election Day. ...

"Bold policy proposals have a habit of boomeranging on politicians. Carona’s primary opponent, developer Don Huffines, waged an expensive campaign that succeeded in convincing voters in Senate District 16 that Carona is a free-spending menace to society. The truth is Carona had backbone enough to put hard choices on the table in Austin. Lawmakers never acted on them, and highway-funding problems remain unsolved. But it was not for lack of trying on the part of one now-defeated state senator from Dallas. As for the victor in this race, if Huffines is an ideas guy, we haven’t heard them."

*****

Other upsets that surprised us? Ralph Sheffield in HD-55 and George Lavender in HD-1

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This week in the Newsreel: The first round of the 2014 primaries is over, meaning candidates are celebrating victories, regrouping after defeats or heading to the runoffs.

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/1hRN2wV

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Hot on the heels of the March primaries, and with the May runoffs already on the horizon, 12 weeks away, we asked the insiders to make some predictions.

The comments are interesting, as you’ll see, but first, we cut to the chase. On the Republican side, the insiders predict that Dan Patrick for lieutenant governor, Ken Paxton for attorney general, Glenn Hegar for comptroller, Sid Miller for agriculture commissioner and Wayne Christian for railroad commissioner will be appearing on your November ballots.

On the Democratic side, they’re picking David Alameel in the U.S. Senate race, and they split between Kinky Friedman and Jim Hogan in the race for agriculture.

A full set of the insiders’ comments is attached. Here is a sampling:

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Who will win the GOP runoff for lieutenant governor?

• "Dewhurst set this in motion the day he filed. Thanks, Jerk."

• "I clearly don't know anything about Republican politics after Tuesday night. Sure hope it isn't Patrick."

• "I will never underestimate the power of the Tea Party ever again."

• "Dew can't finish. A smaller electorate means a more extreme electorate."

• "Save yourself the money, David. It's over."

• "Take Note: The biggest step to turning Texas blue will be (God help us!) The election of Dan Patrick as Lt. Guv."

• "Patrick will lead a conservative slate that will sweep the runoffs."

• "Might be wishful thinking, but I think Gov. Dewhurst can pull this one out."

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Who will win the GOP runoff for attorney general?

• "Absent intervention by Abbott, the Ted Cruz 'non-endorsement' endorsement of Paxton may be enough to tip the scale, especially since Cruz once aspired to this job."

• "Branch just doesn't look comfortable going to the right. He is country club pedigree and has a hard time connecting to the plebeian voter."

• "The Tea Party Conservatives will make it out to the polls for this run-off. Branch just needs to make sure others do too."

• "Branch did not take aim at Paxton until a few days before the primary election. I suspect a steady stream of real damaging information to target Paxton. Candidly voters don't know much about him other than he can get Ted Cruz to say nice things about him in a TV ad. I wonder if Cruz will actually endorse him in the run-off or just give him another 'faux-endorsement' for a TV ad."

• "Dan Branch made a big mistake: If you're gonna go crazy, you gotta go REALLY crazy."

• "Ted Cruz factor puts Paxton over Branch. Sigh."

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Who will win the GOP runoff for comptroller (if there is one; votes are still out)?

• "Glenn should win this one."

• "Hegar will prevail. No runoff."

• "If Hilderbran sticks to what he can bring to the office and what he plans to do while in office (sans his umpteenth point plan), the electorate will see he can fulfill this role. He really needs to utilize his chairmanship of Ways and Means as he experience in working with dollars and cents."

• "Obviously Hegar is awfully close and in most cases, as I expect is happening today, there's some serious conversations about the future. Personally I hope Hildebrand stays in there. Like Staples and Patterson, he is far more in touch with the average Texan. The shoot 'me up image Hegar presents for a job collecting taxes is kinda frightening. And I'm a sixth generation Texan with my own guns!!"

• "Note to All Consultants: Use the children. Shamelessly."

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Who will win the GOP runoff for agriculture commissioner?

• "Merritt comes from a vote rich base of East Texas. Miller lives in a sparsely populated area of the state."

• "But wouldn't it be fun to have Tommy Merritt as a statewide elected official representing Texas?"

• "Honestly, watching these two names on the ballot make me sick. We should be moving forward and not backwards. Who cares."

• "Please please please let it be Sid. It has to be Sid."

• "Really? Is this what it comes down too? Good for Texas Weekly - bad for Texas."

• "Didn't these guys get voted out of their House districts and they're competing a statewide seat?"

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Who will win the GOP runoff for railroad commissioner?

• "Conservatives need fresh blood to lead us into the next chapter. No more 'has-been' on the ballots, por favor."

• "Who will vote against a Christian?"

• "At this point down the ballot I really don't care. This is a worthless state agency that should be wrapped up into the comptroller's office and maybe the governor's office."

• "These tend to be sorta boring stepping stone offices. Everyone is going somewhere else (except for Jim Nugent) or is trying. Wayne Christian has a record and a lot of negatives and the other guy is an unknown but kinda refreshing with no record."

• "Hopefully industry money can carry Sitton. Christian would be par for the course, though… Christian, Miller, Paxton, Patrick all in statewide office. This doesn't bode well for the state or the state GOP."

• "Ideology trumps competence every time"

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Who will win the Democratic runoff for U.S. Senate?

• "Please let it be Rogers. That would be awesome!"

• "The democratic party will be humiliated by a Rogers victory. They will do whatever it takes to pull Alameel across the line."

• "I've never heard of either one of the people"

• "The Texas Democratic Party deserves Kesha Rogers."

• "Question to Ds: Why is your hand-picked candidate for Senate in a run-off?"

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Who will win the Democratic runoff for agriculture commissioner?

• "Name recognition and the marijuana issue should put Kinky over the top."

• "Democrats aren't as crazy as Sid Miller and Tommy Merritt."

• "The Kinkster!"

• "Aren't there any other options?"

• "Kinky wins, people know him. Then we can find out just how much Texas wants to legalize marijuana. My prediction is. They vote to legalize!"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Victor Alcorta, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Louis Bacarisse, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Dave Beckwith, Amy Beneski, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Fred Bosse, Chris Britton, Terri Burke, David Cabrales, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Gay Erwin, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Jim Grace, Jack Gullahorn, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Billy Howe, Kathy Hutto, Deborah Ingersoll, Richie Jackson, Jason Johnson, Bill Jones, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Tim Lambert, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Bill Lauderback, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Mark Lehman, Leslie Lemon, Myra Leo, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Phillip Martin, Robert Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Sylvia Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Kraege Polan, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Karen Reagan, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Christopher Shields, Julie Shields, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Charles Stuart, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Woody Widrow, Christopher Williston, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Tuesday, March 11

• Republican Party of Texas fundraiser featuring chairman Steve Munisteri; 730 E. Friar Tuck, Houston (6-7:30 p.m.)

Thursday, March 13

• Fundraiser for House candidate George Clayton; Maggiano's Little Italy, NorthPark Center, Dallas (5-7 p.m.)

The continued strength of the Tea Party was the big headline coming out of Tuesday's party primary elections. Although candidates identified with the Tea Party could not unseat U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, movement conservatives racked up many high-profile wins at the legislative level. The biggest showings came from lite guv candidate Dan Patrick and attorney general candidate Ken Paxton. They were the highest vote getters in their respective contests and are the favorites going into their runoff elections.

The two parties' gubernatorial candidates, Greg Abbott and Wendy Davis, cruised to their respective nominations, a result that was pre-ordained when they drew no opponents of substance. Davis, however, lost 26 counties to the underresourced Ray Madrigal. More than half of those losses were in South Texas, where high turnout will be key for any Democrat looking to win a statewide contest this year. Republicans seized on this as evidence that Davis is in a weakened position. Democrats, though, said Davis' vote totals in South Texas far surpassed those for Abbott and that voters in the Rio Grande Valley would rally around Davis in the fall.

Abortion provider Whole Woman's Health announced that it was closing women's clinics in McAllen and Beaumont. Since the passage of HB 2, which further regulated abortion facilities, the number of abortion clinics has fallen drastically. While there were 44 clinics three years ago, there are now 24.

A report by the Environmental Defense Fund suggested that oil and gas companies could contain projected emissions of methane by up to 40 percent by 2018 — and save money in the process. Industry representatives, though, downplayed their role in methane emissions. They argued that cow flatulence is a larger source of methane emissions than the oil and gas industry.

An investigation has begun into allegations of professional misconduct against Charles Sebesta, the former Burleson County district attorney who prosecuted death row exoneree Anthony Graves. If proven, the charge could result in his disbarment.

Nelda Luce Blair of The Woodlands was named by Gov. Rick Perry to the Texas Economic Development Corp. for a term to expire at the pleasure of the governor.

House Speaker Joe Straus was named to the 2014 Executive Committee for the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee. The group describes itself as the only national organization dedicated to building Republican majorities at the state level.

Becky Klein of Klein Energy and William Taylor of Calpine Corporation were named the first chair and vice chair of Power Across Texas (PAT), a nonprofit dedicated to energy policy issues. The 7-year-old organization has decided to name a board of directors for the first time in its history. The other members are:

• Secretary — Vicki Oswalt of Energy Future Holdings

• Treasurer — Ross Phillips of the Lower Colorado River Authority

• Members — Michele Mandell of Mandell & Associates, LLC; Marcus Pridgeon of CMC Steel Texas; and Darren Schauer of the Guadalupe Valley Electric Cooperative

Hidalgo County District Attorney René Guerra won't get the chance to be the longest-serving DA in Texas history. He lost to former state District Judge Ricardo Rodriguez, 64 percent to 36 percent. Guerra has served 32 years as DA.

Nelson Wolff won the Democratic nomination for Bexar County judge, fending off a high-profile challenge from County Commissioner Tommy Adkisson. Wolff is seeking a fourth four-year term.

Paul Simpson is the new chairman of the Harris County Republican Party. He defeated the incumbent, Jared Woodfill, in a race that gained attention for the vast resources raised by Simpson in his challenge. Simpson got 53 percent of the vote while Woodfill got 37 percent. A third candidate, Wendy McPherson Berry, received 10 percent.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, Power Across Texas was a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. (See the full list of Tribune donors below $1,000 here.)