State Government

An old saying: One’s an accident, two is a coincidence, and three is a trend. The biggest of the missiles aimed at U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, missed when a congressional panel decided to admonish him in a letter instead of doing something more severe. But they didn’t dismiss serious campaign finance charges, choosing instead to put those on hold while prosecutors and grand jurors in Travis County, Texas are still working.

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison told a gaggle of reporters this summer that she’d be announcing her political plans early next summer, and aides say nothing has changed since then. The question, of course, is whether she’ll run for reelection, run for governor, or give up show biz. None of that is new, and it’s no longer news that political people without much to watch in state elections this year are obsessing on that question. But that obsessing, along with worries over the financing of schools and the financing of political campaigns, is producing some weird and interesting ideas about politics in Texas over the next 18 months, through a legislative session and into the 2006 primaries. To wit:

After 21 months of investigation by Travis County prosecutors, deliberations by three different grand juries and skirmishes along the way that went all the way up the appellate food chain, 32 indictments of three individuals and eight corporations might seem like a small string of fish. These aren’t even public officials, though they worked with top officials in the Texas and U.S. Houses.

With Labor Day behind us and the finish line on the horizon, at least a dozen Texas House races should be handicapped as serious contests. Mark another nine or so as contests that could turn if conditions change significantly or if an incumbent slips or underestimates the problem.

Here’s a question somewhere in the minds of people watching the congressional race between Democrat Chet Edwards of Waco and Republican Arlene Wohlgemuth of Burleson: Is the average voter in Brazos County more likely to vote for an Aggie or a Republican?

School finance didn’t move an inch while we were on summer break. Not an iota. In early July, Sen. Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, was showing a plan she hoped would get some support, the idea being that if lawmakers liked it, the Lege could come back to Austin for a quick special session. They’d do something to lower property taxes and increase the state’s share of public school funding with a combination of sales, business and tobacco taxes, and could frost that cake with money from slot machines if enough legislators would go along.

Judging from the reaction to the latest solution to the school finance mess, a special session on the subject would come as a huge surprise to legislators and lobsters alike. Sen. Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, is proposing a combination of business, sales, and tobacco taxes to raise money for education and to buy down local school property taxes. If lawmakers and voters are willing, they could increase the size of the property tax cut by allowing slot machines in Texas.

Aides to Gov. Rick Perry tell us he hasn’t changed his tune on the likelihood of a special session. Perry told a reporter in Tyler that he doesn’t see any reason to call members back if they can’t reach a deal in the next few weeks, but didn’t back down from his plans to call one if there’s any way to do so. By the time that news reached the mainland, it had morphed into a story saying Perry had lowered the alert level on a special session by a couple of notches, and was maybe even leaning against it.

While the delegates to the state convention in Houston were busy in caucuses and buying buttons and listening to speeches, a small group of Democratic legislators, aides, consultants, and political hacks met privately with the University of Houston’s Richard Murray, who talked them through an 11-page memo on what’s wrong with the Party and what he thinks they should do about it.

Texas Democrats are having their moment in the political desert. Hope is thin. Provisions are slight. The opposition is strong. Heroes have not appeared.