Add U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio, to the list of people who'll change courses, if others change courses first.Bonilla is now openly saying he will run for the U.S. Senate if Kay Bailey Hutchison decides not to seek reelection next year. She's considering a run for governor in 2006, and since she's up for reelection at the same time, she'd have to give up the federal perch to try for the state job. Bonilla has been talking to Republicans about a possible run for some time, but came out in radio interviews in San Antonio and Lubbock, saying he'd like Hutchison's job if she gives it up. That would be an up-or-out race for him as well. Hutchison and Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn have been circling Gov. Rick Perry for months (two years, in the comptroller's case) and while they haven't committed to anything, nobody in Austin would be surprised to see a three-way GOP primary a year from now. The seats emptied by the two most prominent females in state politics would set off two more races. Agriculture Commissioner Susan Combs is already raising money for a comptroller run; others have talked about it but haven't been as active in positioning themselves for a contest in the March 2006 primary, or in the November general election. Two names most often mentioned for Comb's spot -- she has said she won't be running for reelection in any case -- are state Sen. Todd Staples, R-Palestine, and state Rep. David Swinford, R-Dumas. Other possible candidates include Rep. Charlie Geren, R-Fort Worth, former Rep. Tom Ramsay, D-Mount Vernon, and Democrat David Cleavinger of Wildorado. The job's political attractiveness was considerably enhanced when Perry turned it into a launching pad for his successful run for lieutenant governor in 1998. A U.S. Senate seat, on the other hand, has always been a plum, and Texans who win those spots tend to hang on to them for two or three or four six-year terms. John Cornyn, who won Phil Gramm's spot in 2002, isn't going anywhere soon. Hutchison, who's been in place since 1993, when she replaced Lloyd Bentsen in the Senate, is ending her second term, as we've said, next year. Gramm held his spot for three terms, and Bentsen was in the Senate for almost four terms (he resigned to become U.S. Treasury secretary). Put it another way: Hutchison is only the third person elected to her spot in the Senate since 1957 (we're leaving out Bob Krueger, who served half a year between his appointment to the job and his loss to Hutchison in a special election); Cornyn is the third holder of the other seat since 1961. It's the kind of rare opportunity that brings out the ambitions of political people in both parties. Barbara Radnofsky, a Houston lawyer who's been testing the waters for almost a year, is expected to run for the seat. Ron Kirk, the former Dallas mayor defeated by Cornyn two years ago, is often mentioned as a contender. Former U.S. Rep. Jim Turner, D-Crockett, has said he would like to run for statewide office if the right opportunity opens up, and he has more than $1 million in seed money sitting idle in his federal campaign account. On the Republican side, the 800-pound gorilla is probably Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst: He's wealthy enough, apparently, to self-fund a race if he had to; he's won two statewide elections against strong opponents; and he hasn't stepped in any of the sorts of potholes that spoil political fairy tales. Putting Dewhurst in the race would likely scare off other Republicans. But without him, there are tire-kickers galore, including two Bonilla colleagues, U.S. Reps. Kay Granger, R-Fort Worth, and Pete Sessions, R-Dallas.

Al Gonzales' nomination as U.S. Attorney General won Senate approval by a 60-36 vote. He's a former Texas Secretary of State and justice on the Texas Supreme Court and the second member of George W. Bush's cabinet to have once been on the Texas state payroll (Education Secretary Margaret Spellings is the other).

If Combs, and if Staples, then....David Kleimann, a Willis businessman who grew up in Montgomery County, says he'll be in the race to replace Sen. Todd Staples, R-Palestine, if there is one. Staples hasn't said he's leaving, but has quietly shown some interest in the Texas Department of Agriculture, where Commissioner Susan Combs is serving her last term. Combs wants to run for comptroller, if that's open, but gave the political world the signal that she won't be back to her current post. Staples is concentrating on Senate stuff for now and keeping his head down, but the pack to replace him is forming. Bob Reeves of Center wants to run if it's open, and Frank Denton, a Conroe businessman, has shown some interest. Denton ran for mayor of Conroe last year and lost; a Senate race would be Kleimann's first contest.

For all the noise about the gubernatorial contests next year, only Gov. Rick Perry has declared outright that he'll seek the GOP nomination. Add two more names.Kinky Friedman is now in the hunt, having jumped from "thinking about it" to "running." He declared his candidacy -- as an independent -- at the Alamo, in a stunt broadcast live on the Don Imus show. By choosing not to run as a Republican or a Democrat, Friedman has to collect 45,540 signatures in the weeks following next year's primaries, and they have to come from voters don't vote in either primary on in the primary runoffs. Raging against the machine isn't just a gag: It worked for two governors who weren't initially considered serious candidates: Jesse Ventura and Arnold Schwarzenegger. And it almost turned former U.S. Sen. Phil Gramm into the answer to a trivia question, when an unknown, unfunded schoolteacher from Mesquite -- Victor Morales -- knocked off three serious Democrats in a primary and then came within goose bump distance of the incumbent in November. Texas makes it tough to run as an independent for governor. A candidate has to get bona fide signatures from enough voters to have made up 1 percent of the electorate in the last governor's race, and have only two months to pull it off. The 2006 primaries are on March 7, and the deadline for signatures from independents is nine weeks later, on May 11. More rules: Signers have to be registered voters, and cannot have voted in either the Democratic or Republican primary, or in either party's runoff. That means anybody who signs a Friedman petition in March of next year would be disqualified if they then voted in either Party's runoff election in April. In the 2002 gubernatorial election, 4,553,987 Texans voted; that's where you derive the number of signatures needed: 45,540. Friedman will need to have that many certified signatures, and will have to gather somewhat more names to be on the safe side. And former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell, D-Houston, filed papers with the Texas Secretary of State that make him a certified gubernatorial explorer. His exploratory committee allows him to raise money without saying absolutely and positively that he's a candidate. He's acting like one, though: Bell hired Bob Doyle of Washington, D.C., as his general consultant, Jason Stanford of Austin to do research and communications, and Heidi Kirkpatrick Hedrick of Houston to handle fundraising. Other Democrats have poked around about running, but Bell's the only one who's signed his work.

From the Railroad Commission to the Texas State University System, or about six blocks in downtown AustinTexas Railroad Commissioner Charles Matthews, named a few weeks ago as the sole finalist for chancellor of the TSU System, now officially has the job. That done, he's resigning right away from the RRC, freeing Gov. Rick Perry to name former Rep. Elizabeth Ames Jones, R-San Antonio, to Matthews' spot on the commission. Matthews is replacing Lamar Urbanovsky as chancellor of the system that includes Texas State University in San Marcos, Angelo State University in San Angelo, Sul Ross University in Alpine, Sam Houston State University in Huntsville, Lamar University in Beaumont, and all of the other campuses of those schools. Matthews, a former Garland mayor who's been at the RRC since 1994, got his undergraduate degree at the University of Texas at Dallas, a master's degree from Texas State University, and is finishing his doctorate at UT Austin. He's taking one employee with him; Melissa Columbus will leave the RRC to work at Matthews' executive assistant at TSUS. Matthews' resignation letter takes effect at midnight; aides to Perry said the governor plans to name Ames to the job as soon as it's open. That makes our earlier post "inoperative," as the saying goes: Ames, once named to the commission, will fall under rules that prevent her from raising money during a legislative session. She'll have to wait, with everyone else, until it's over.

Straus picks up support, and Jones postpones fundraisingGlen Starnes, one of two Republicans in the running to replace Rep. Elizabeth Ames Jones, R-San Antonio, in the state Legislature, can't get off the ballot. But he told the San Antonio Express-News he'll campaign for the other Republican in the race: Joe Straus III. Starnes is apparently afraid the Republicans will split the conservative vote and open an opportunity for Rose Spector, a former justice on the Texas Supreme Court and the only Democrat in the special election to replace Jones. There's an independent in the running, too: former state Rep. Paul Silber. Straus also picked up an endorsement over the quick campaign's last weekend from Gov. Rick Perry. The two share support from several Republican financiers who live in HD-121. Jones has temporarily dropped fundraising efforts because of questions about whether she is or is not an officeholder. She was reelected in November. Gov. Perry, anticipating the resignation of Railroad Commissioner Charles Matthews, said he intends to appoint Jones to that post. Jones then declined to take the oath of office for another term in the House, since doing so would have barred her from the appointment. If she's not in office, she's not subject to the fundraising ban that prevents state officeholders from raising money during a legislative session. Jones, who has some $238,000 cash in her political accounts, started pulling together a fundraiser. But another question arose. Some state officials -- appointees, mainly -- remain in office even after their terms expire until their replacements are named. Since Jones' replacement hasn't been elected and sworn in, there's a question of whether she's still technically an officeholder. And if she is, she's barred from raising money. The special election to replace her is on Saturday, and a new San Antonio rep could be sworn in as early as next Monday. If Jones hasn't replaced Matthews by then -- it's not clear when he'll resign -- she'd be able to raise money then.

But not an outright political one.The Dallas office of Vinson & Elkins snagged former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk from Gardere & Wynne, and he says he'll be working there some, in Austin some, and in Washington some. Kirk, who ran for U.S. Senate against John Cornyn in 2002, says he's not thinking about running at the moment, but he leaves the door ajar: "We [politicians] always have the virus, but I like to think mine is in remission right now." Two of his new colleagues have some interest in the answer to that question: Ray Hutchison, of V&E's Dallas office, is married to U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Barbara Radnofsky, a partner at V&E's Houston office, is running for Hutchison's seat as a Democrat next year. Sen. Hutchison is up for reelection in 2006, but is considering a run for governor instead.

House Democrats, Frost, Sherman, Keel, Loftin, Hymel, Rollins, and DavisRep. Jim Dunnam of Waco will do another term as chairman of the Texas House Democratic Caucus, and Dawnna Dukes of Austin will stay on as vice chairman. Terri Hodge of Dallas was reelected as treasurer, and the one newbie in the group is freshman Rep. Veronica Gonzales of McAllen, who will replace Jessica Farrar of Houston as the group's secretary. None of those elections were contested. After finishing third in an important preliminary vote, former U.S. Rep. Martin Frost, D-Dallas, dropped out of the running for chairman of the Democratic National Committee. The other Texas candidate in that contest -- former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk -- dropped out in the very early rounds and never mounted a serious campaign. Austin lawyer Lynn Sherman, a water specialist who worked at the Lower Colorado River Authority before getting into the water development business, is signing on with the government relations shop at Winstead Sechrest & Minick. State Auditor John Keel got an award named for his former boss, getting the "Bob Bullock Award for Outstanding Public Stewardship" at the Government Technology Conference in Austin. Keel only recently got the auditor job; he was staff director of the Legislative Budget Board for 10 years and worked for Bullock, among others, during his career in state government. Bob Loftin, formerly with the Texas Legislative Reference Library, left state employment for the private sector, joining the Austin-based consulting firm Strategic Partnerships Inc. Ray Hymel left the Employee Retirement System, where he worked in intergovernmental relations, to join the Texas Public Employees Association, for which he'll lobby the legislature on some of the same issues. Deaths: Henry "Moak" Rollins, an engineer and businessman who served on the Texas Public Utility Commission during Gov. Bill Clements' first term, back when the PUC set utility rates and was in the public eye all the time. He was 83... Stewart Davis, a former Austin reporter for the Houston Chronicle and The Dallas Morning News, and then a spokesman for the state's old Department of Human Services. He was 67...

We left one out!Add Rep. Harvey Hilderbran, R-Kerrville, to that list of possible candidates for Texas agriculture commissioner. We just flat left him off the list the last time we wrote about this. Hilderbran has been tapping around that contest for months; at the state GOP convention last summer, he had glossy flyers in circulation promoting the idea and listing Ernie Angelo of Midland as his campaign treasurer. Hilderbran has more money on hand at the moment than all but one of his opponents, which would mark a good start as the contest to replace Ag Commissioner Susan Combs heats up after the legislative session. Before you get him fully suited up for farming and ranching, though, keep an eye on Henry Bonilla, R-San Antonio. If Kay Bailey Hutchison doesn't seek reelection next year, Bonilla wants to run for her spot in the U.S. Senate. And if his seat in the House opens up, Hilderbran is among the best-known politicos in that district. He's not making the sorts of public noises that Bonilla has been making, but Hilderbran has expressed interest in running for Congress in years past.