The Harris County early vote is strongly Democratic. Talarico won 66.3% to Paxton's 32.3%. Just two years ago, Colin Allred won the early vote here by 10%. Democrats have long dreamed of hitting the elusive 60% overall margin in Harris.

And in TX-09, which Republicans redrew to be safely Republican, their candidate, Alex Mealer, is down by 24 percentage points in the early vote to Democrat Leticia Gutierrez.

There's a real possibility Republicans lose all five of the seats they redrew.

Gabby Birenbaum is the Washington Correspondent for the Texas Tribune. She covers the Texas congressional delegation and the impact of federal policy on Texas. Gabby previously covered Washington for The...