The Last Episode for the Political Sorting Hat

In the new districts drawn for the Texas House, and in those drawn for Texas seats in the U.S. House, there are several seats that voted for Republicans on average in 1998 while voting with the Democrats on closer races, like the one for comptroller. That’s a measure of the coattail strength of then-Gov. George W. Bush. And it’s useful if you’re trying to figure out whether a seat that initially appears to belong to the Republicans is actually theirs. Bush’s strength added as few as two percentage points to overall Republican numbers in some districts and as much as 16 percentage points in others.

Most of the newly drawn House districts–105 of them–voted Republican when you average all of the statewide races together. But when you look only at the closest race on the ballot–the contest for comptroller between Republican Carole Keeton Rylander and Democrat Paul Hobby150;the numbers are much closer. In fact, the statewide averages were skewed by the huge margin of victory racked up by George W. Bush, in particular, and make the House districts look an average of 9 percent more Republican than the comptroller’s race. In two dozen districts, the Republican statewide average was at or above 50 percent but the comptroller’s race went to the Democrat.

Now that the primaries and runoffs are out of the way, some of the numbers are firming up. We’ll save the prognostication for a bit so the real numbers and the imaginary ones don’t get mixed.

Our Department of Curious Statistics produced this nugget: More Democrats voted in the runoffs in Dallas and Tarrant Counties than voted in the primaries a month earlier. In Dallas County, 77,938 people voted in the Democratic Senate primary in March. In April, that number increased significantly, to 92,408. Tarrant County’s numbers did the same hat trick, increasing to 39,094 in April from 36,812 in March. In Dallas, the additional voters broke almost two-to-one in favor of former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk. In Tarrant County, the numbers were more dramatic: The combination of increased turnout and the absence of Ken Bentsen and other candidates to dilute support put more than 5,900 additional votes in Kirk’s column. Add in what happened in other counties, like Travis and Harris and Bexar, and you have strong evidence that Democrats are rebuilding their political infrastructure.

Politicians don’t like sitting around while other people are getting a bunch of attention, and that’s as good an explanation as any for the early dustup in the governor’s race. Gov. Rick Perry and his challenger, Tony Sanchez Jr., spent the week before a runoff that doesn’t directly involve them taking potshots at each other. They started in the doctor’s office and got all the way to prison by mid-week.

A year ago, Dr. John Coppedge of Longview was one of the biggest supporters of Gov. Rick Perry in his part of the state. But they had a falling out over Perry’s vetoes of the “prompt pay” legislation pushed by the Texas Medical Association.

It’s easier to get rid of fire ants than it is to kill rumors, but the latest news from Texas A&M; should subdue the latest gossip about the U.S. Senate seat now held by Phil Gramm. More importantly, it should be added to the lore about people in powerful positions botching easy opportunities.

A couple of Waco Republicans have turned a relatively quiet race for the Texas House of Representatives into a soap opera. Two Republicans seeking to represent a noteworthy chunk of McLennan County in the Texas Legislature have an unusual set of issues to debate: philandering, stalking, videotaping, ugly messages left on answering machines, kicked down doors, divorce and general fitness to hold office.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tony Sanchez, criticized last year for raising questions about a political opponent’s sexual proclivities, is running radio ads referring to a lawyer who helped Dan Morales on tobacco litigation as “an intimate friend” of the former attorney general.