An old saying: One’s an accident, two is a coincidence, and three is a trend. The biggest of the missiles aimed at U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, missed when a congressional panel decided to admonish him in a letter instead of doing something more severe. But they didn’t dismiss serious campaign finance charges, choosing instead to put those on hold while prosecutors and grand jurors in Travis County, Texas are still working.
The Spoils of War
Unfettered Speculation
U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison told a gaggle of reporters this summer that she’d be announcing her political plans early next summer, and aides say nothing has changed since then. The question, of course, is whether she’ll run for reelection, run for governor, or give up show biz. None of that is new, and it’s no longer news that political people without much to watch in state elections this year are obsessing on that question. But that obsessing, along with worries over the financing of schools and the financing of political campaigns, is producing some weird and interesting ideas about politics in Texas over the next 18 months, through a legislative session and into the 2006 primaries. To wit:
Storm Clouds
After 21 months of investigation by Travis County prosecutors, deliberations by three different grand juries and skirmishes along the way that went all the way up the appellate food chain, 32 indictments of three individuals and eight corporations might seem like a small string of fish. These aren’t even public officials, though they worked with top officials in the Texas and U.S. Houses.
Your Money or Your Kids
State District Judge John Dietz, ruling on the heels of closing arguments, said the state’s system of funding public schools is unconstitutional and ordered the Legislature to fix it within a year. His detailed ruling won’t be out for a couple of weeks, but if you do a quick calculation of what he said so far, it’s easy to argue that the state will have to spend another $3 billion or so each year on public education. That’s in addition to any money that would be used lowering local property taxes. (Click here for a copy of Dietz’s bench ruling.)
Off to the Races
With Labor Day behind us and the finish line on the horizon, at least a dozen Texas House races should be handicapped as serious contests. Mark another nine or so as contests that could turn if conditions change significantly or if an incumbent slips or underestimates the problem.
The Guns of August (and September)
Political journalists are often called fight promoters โ people who’ll try to start a contest where there isn’t one โ but the state’s senior senator and the governor are making the job easy. They’re even giving us facts to play with, and starting the fights without much prompting from the likes of us.
Gloomy Numbers For Every Political Taste
The U.S. Bureau of the Census prefaced the Republican Party’s national convention with a bummer of a report that says, among other things, that Texas has the highest percentage of uninsured people of any state and that the median income here dropped during the first years of this decade.
A Special Case
Rep. Jim Dunnam, D-Waco, is in a pretty safe district for a Democrat, as these things go. In the last election against his current opponent, Jeffrey Hibbs, Dunnam pulled 60.2 percent of the vote. And with the exception of Tony Sanchez Jr., who lost by a little in this House district while losing by a lot statewide, the Democrats running for statewide office in Dunnam’s district swept in 2002.
Gig ‘Em
Here’s a question somewhere in the minds of people watching the congressional race between Democrat Chet Edwards of Waco and Republican Arlene Wohlgemuth of Burleson: Is the average voter in Brazos County more likely to vote for an Aggie or a Republican?
School’s Out for Summer
School finance didn’t move an inch while we were on summer break. Not an iota. In early July, Sen. Florence Shapiro, R-Plano, was showing a plan she hoped would get some support, the idea being that if lawmakers liked it, the Lege could come back to Austin for a quick special session. They’d do something to lower property taxes and increase the state’s share of public school funding with a combination of sales, business and tobacco taxes, and could frost that cake with money from slot machines if enough legislators would go along.


