The Wrong Kind of Boom

Republican budgeteers missed a shot at limiting the amount of spending to be done by the next Legislature, falling a vote short in their attempt to tie the state budget to a conservative measure of economic growth. And the numbers will have another chance or two to balloon over the next seven months, as lawmakers wrestle with the sputtering economy.

The state budget is a big deal in Austin and in scattered pockets around the state where people who make their livings by knowing about this stuff are paying attention. But even though the people in the bubble—we include ourselves in that gray world—are certain that the budget and taxes will be the centerpiece of the legislative session, regular people have something else on their minds.

Former legislators who were lobbying for various businesses last session will be working in or advising top management in the Pink Building during the next legislative session. That happens to some extent every time there’s a regime change or a big staff turnover, but the combination of those types of changes has the doors spinning at the state Capitol.

Give the Republicans the edge, but the top four statewide races in Texas are as competitive at the tape as they have been in years. The GOP candidates are telling those who will listen that they’ve got the U.S. Senate and gubernatorial contests in the bag, but their actions suggest things are closer, with John Cornyn gripping President George W. Bush’s coattails (and Bush isn’t even on the ballot) and Gov. Rick Perry running the kind of final days Hail Mary ad normally associated with trailing and desperate campaigns.

It’s almost impossible to read election results into early turnout numbers, but it’s possible to tell whether various efforts to excite voters are working. The trouble is seeing past the political spinners who are trying to get their voters worked up while putting voters on the other side to sleep.

Watch the first four or five days of early voting numbers and you’ll have a pretty good notion of who’s playing air guitar and who’s got a Stratocaster. Democrats have been hyping this moment for more than a year, arguing that a normal turnout–unlike the one in 1998–will help some Democrats win statewide office, and arguing that a new turnout–based on changing demographics–will help more of them get over the hump. Republicans have been playing a different tune, saying the state is increasingly conservative and that Democrats shouldn’t assume that new voters of whatever race will automatically favor their candidates.

Five out of five experts agree: They don’t have a consensus on how many Texans will vote this year, or on which Texans will make up that total. That makes it difficult to know where to send mail, what shows to buy commercial time on, who to call when it’s time to get Joe and Josephine Sixpack off the couches and out to the polls. It’s got the smart people scratching their pointy heads.

The insurance issue blows up, the second-largest insurer plans to leave the state, more than a half million homeowners could be forced to change insurers during the next year. There’s plenty for regulators and legislators to do next year, but how does that splash in the election pool?

Several months ago, a spokesman for Attorney General John Cornyn popped off about the Democratic “Dream Team,” calling it a racial quota ticket that ultimately wouldn’t work. Cornyn disavowed it right away. Then U.S. Sen. Phil Gramm told Republican Party state delegates that Democrats were trying to divide the state’s voters on the basis of race. Soon after, in a press grab in Washington, D.C., Cornyn said Gramm was right to say race shouldn’t be the basis for the elections.