HOUSTON — With early voting less than two months away, President Donald Trump appeared in Houston on Thursday to inject momentum and some much-needed cash in the U.S. Senate campaign of Republican Ken Paxton, his close ally who is in a tight race with Democrat James Talarico.
Trump’s first appearance for Paxton’s campaign comes in a week when ad spending by Republicans for the state’s attorney general surpassed his Democratic opponent’s for the first time.
The president, who upon deplaning was closely followed by Bill Pulte, the director of U.S. Federal Housing, was greeted by U.S. Rep. Brian Babin, R-Woodville, on the Ellington Field Joint Reserve Base tarmac. The president waved to over a hundred fans who chanted his name and USA before leaving for a Republican National Committee fundraising event, where he is expected to be a keynote speaker rallying support behind the Republican nominee.
Trump was expected to headline a Republican National Committee fundraising event Thursday evening during his overnight stay in Houston. On Friday, the president is expected to honor members of the Artemis II lunar flyby crew at the Johnson Space Center.
The focus of his visit, however, appears to be an attempt to jumpstart the campaign of one of the president’s staunchest allies. Before departing for Texas, Trump told reporters in Washington, D.C., that he planned to spend more time in the state to ensure Paxton won his race.
“We’re working very hard. We want to win that race,” Trump said, calling Paxton a good candidate.
The president’s assistance arrives as Talarico is starting to pull away from Paxton in several polls, including a new survey by the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, which shows the Austin state representative is up by three percentage points. Two months ago, the same poll had Paxton in the lead, signaling the potential for a quick shift in voter opinions in the Lone Star State.
Meanwhile, Talarico unveiled his plan to break up “Big Medicine,” endorsed by Texas businessman and entrepreneur Mark Cuban, on Thursday. Talarico and Cuban will appear together in Fort Worth on Saturday for a live conversation moderated by political strategist and Fox News co-host Jessica Tarlov as the Democratic candidate tries to keep up his positive momentum.
Republican strategists have previously cautioned that Democrats’ polling is typically strongest in the summer, and that they expect those numbers to shift once Paxton or his allies begin attacking Talarico on television.
As of last week, Talarico has spent over $25 million on advertising since Paxton secured the GOP nomination in late May, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact — with nearly $10.7 million deployed on broadcast and an additional $8.4 million on streaming devices, according to previous reporting.
Over that same time period, the Paxton campaign has spent $119,000 — nearly all of it on digital advertising — meaning that Talarico has essentially had the airwaves to himself. Over that time, he’s built a narrow polling lead in numerous polls within the margin of error.
However, momentum shifted in the week of Aug. 25, with Republicans spending $3,076,372 on ad buys, outpacing the Democrats’ $2,543,647.
Last week, Karl Rove, a longtime Republican strategist who supported Sen. John Cornyn in the primary, said that the disparate fundraising dynamics between the campaigns have made the race unusual.
“He’s not going to change as a fundraiser,” Rove said on Fox, referring to Paxton’s past performances. “So this is going to be one that is going to depend mightily upon the decision of President Trump to spend or not spend the half a billion plus dollars that he has in his two super PACs — MAGA Inc. and Never Surrender. If he does spend, then he can sort of even it up. If he doesn’t spend, this could be a really bad night for Republicans in Texas.”
Texas Bullpen reported that MAGA Inc. fielded a message testing poll in Texas with possible attacks against Talarico this month, portending potential future spending.
On Fox News recently, Paxton laid out his timeline for campaign spending, saying he expects that litigating Talarico’s record will cement the Democrat’s loss — but that he needs resources to do it.
A Republican group called Protecting America’s Future, seeded by longtime Paxton ally and West Texas billionaire Tim Dunn, became the first GOP group to run an anti-Talarico ad, attacking him on China policy and crime in two spots in a $120,000 ad spend airing mostly in the Corpus Christi media market this week.
Paxton also told Fox that Republican leadership is “planning on spending money here, is my understanding,” but he noted that he can’t coordinate with them.
Outside of the Senate race, Republicans’ cash advantage in other statewide contests — especially the governor’s race — could serve to benefit Paxton as well, when an expected deluge of pro-Republican, anti-Democrat messaging hits the airwaves this fall.
Gabby Birenbaum contributed to this story.
