The Republican primary for the 23rd Congressional District is ending on a deeply uncertain note as Rep. Tony Gonzales, R-San Antonio, appears more politically imperiled than ever and both parties contemplate a potential general election without him.

The primary was upended as early voting began last week, when the San Antonio Express-News reported that Gonzales had an affair with an aide who later died after setting herself on fire. The story prompted a wave of other damning revelations about his relationship with the aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, and gave fresh momentum to his leading primary rival, Brandon Herrera, who already came close to unseating Gonzales in 2024.

Gonzales has resisted calls to resign and sought to show he is plowing forward with his campaign, attending President Donald Trump’s visit to Corpus Christi on Friday. But there are signs emerging that even if he makes it into a runoff against Herrera, he may not be able to count on some of the powerful allies he had in the primary.

In perhaps the most ominous sign for Gonzales, President Donald Trump reposted all of his endorsements in Texas’s congressional primaries on Friday morning — and omitted Gonzales. He briefly acknowledged Gonzales from the stage in Corpus Christi, offering him a “congratulations” without elaborating.

Herrera, meanwhile, voiced encouragement at the news of Trump’s apparent snub, and in a statement for this story, he argued why he is best positioned for the general election. The gun-loving YouTuber has a history of provocative comments that would undoubtedly get more scrutiny if he is the GOP nominee, particularly with some Democrats eyeing a play for the Hispanic-majority seat in what could be a favorable midterm climate.

“The issues I’ve campaigned on are the same ones Tony campaigned on and won with: securing the border, protecting our constitutional rights, and taking care of our veterans,” Herrera said. “The difference between me and Tony is simple: I’ll walk the walk, not just talk the talk.”

Herrera added that, if he emerges as the nominee, he would also campaign on issues such as “the epidemic of rural hospital closures across Southwest Texas and the affordability crisis facing too many of our working families” — issues with notably broader crossover appeal than the partisan ones, like gun rights, that have defined his political brand so far.

While a handful of House Republicans, many of them already politically aligned with Herrera, have called on Gonzales to resign, others — including Speaker Mike Johnson, who endorsed him earlier in the cycle — have appeared content to let voters decide the embattled lawmaker’s fate in Tuesday’s primary.

Even before the latest news, Republicans in Washington were preparing for the primary to go to a runoff, according to a GOP strategist who works on House races across the country and who was not authorized to speak publicly about the race. Now, Republicans are wondering whether Gonzales could lose outright, a possibility raised by an internal poll that Herrera’s campaign conducted in the three days immediately after the Express-News report.

Herrera’s campaign has been outspending Gonzales’ campaign and an allied group on advertising in the final week of the primary, according to data from media tracking firm AdImpact. The National Republican Congressional Committee had been helping fund ads for Gonzales in what is known as a coordinated buy, but that ended last week.

Herrera started running a TV ad Friday that is entirely positive — citing his desire to “keep southwest Texas the best place to raise a family” and start a business — and does not mention Gonzales.

Herrera is getting late help from the political arm of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, which endorsed him Monday. The group is running digital ads that highlight his enthusiasm for the Second Amendment and promise he “will support President Trump’s America First agenda.”

The late push for Herrera comes as Gonzales continues to face damaging reports about his relationship with Santos-Aviles. The Tribune and other outlets reported that Gonzales asked her for sexually explicit pictures in late-night text messages.

The Gonzales campaign did not respond to requests for comment for this story.

The 23rd District is a massive district that spreads from San Antonio to outside El Paso, encompassing most of the Texas-Mexico border. Trump would have carried the district in 2024 by 15 percentage points under the latest boundaries, making it an uphill battle for Democrats. But some were already eyeing the seat as a pickup opportunity before the latest burst of bad news for Gonzales.

Texas Democratic Party Chairman Kendall Scudder called the district a “real opportunity for Democrats” during a call with reporters in early February. House Majority PAC, the top Democratic super PAC in House races, also sees pickup potential in November.

“TX-23 is a massive headache for Mike Johnson and Donald Trump, as Republicans are locked in a bruising and expensive primary rematch,” HMP spokesperson CJ Warnke said in a statement. “Whether they nominate a scandal-plagued incumbent or an antisemitic YouTuber, there is a clear opening for Democrats in November.”

During the 2024 race, Jewish Insider reported that Herrera had a history of posting videos “replete with imagery, music and jokes about the Nazi regime and the Holocaust.” Gonzales called him a “known neo-Nazi”; Herrera said it was “obvious” he was not a neo-Nazi.

The four Democrats running for the seat include Santos Limon, a civil engineer from San Antonio who was the Democratic nominee against Gonzales in 2024. Limon lost by a wide margin, but he said in an interview that he “learned a lot” and that his campaign has been preparing for a number of different scenarios if he is the nominee again.

“Our camp, our strategy, has always been thinking toward the future,” he said, adding that Herrera in particular would be out of step with November voters in a district that was the site of the 2022 Uvalde school shooting. “This district does not need more of that rhetoric because we still have people mourning. We have people who, to this day, do not have closure — at all.”

On the Republican side, Gonzales and Herrera are in a primary that also includes Francisco “Quico” Canseco, who represented an earlier version of the 23rd District from 2011 to 2013. Canseco has been at a disadvantage after entering the race late but has been pitching himself as a palatable third option for Republicans worried about holding on to the seat in November.

“If either one of the two wins, this district is in terrible danger of reverting to Democrats,” Canseco said, citing Gonzales’ personal scandal and Herrera having an “almost one-issue category” — guns. “That’s not wrong, but there are so many issues that affect us today, whether it’s the border, the economy or foreign relations.”

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