It started with a relatively sunny fiscal forecast from Comptroller Susan Combs, who said the state will end the current budget with $8.8 billion, and that it will have $11.8 billion in the Rainy Day Fund at the end of the two years. Thatโs assuming lawmakers donโt use any rainy day money and that they leave that $8.8 billion alone โ which is unlikely, since theyโre writing a supplemental appropriations bill to cover Medicaid and other holes in the current budget.
The comptrollerโs forecast was a couple of billion more positive than some of the Capitolโs budgeteers expected, fueling Gov. Rick Perryโs pitch for tax cuts or tax refunds. From the governmentโs standpoint โ from the budgeteersโ standpoint โ thatโs a spending plan. And there is competition.
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst took the first real crack at the supplemental bill, saying it will include $4.5 billion to finance Medicaid through the end of the fiscal year, and another $700 million to cover unexpected wildfires and health care costs in the stateโs prison system. Not on his list: The $1.9 billion that would replace a missed Foundation School Plan payment in the current budget (which was balanced, in part, by moving one monthly payment at the end of the biennium by one day, into the next budget). Paying that in the supplemental bill would put the spending in the current budget. That would raise the base number that, when multiplied by the stateโs adopted growth rate cap, limits how much lawmakers get to spend in the next budget.
It also doesnโt include any replacement money for education. The stateโs three leaders are taking the position, for now, that public education cuts made two years ago donโt need patching right now.
Those limits might be pointless in the end; the verdict in the school finance trial thatโs now underway could force lawmakers to spend more on public education, busting whatever cap they set.
* * * * *
Rep. David Simpson, R-Longview, wanted to be speaker of the House but showed up in a racecar with no wheels and no engine. His challenge to Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, ended with a personal privilege speech in which he vaguely referred to a culture of retribution that made it difficult to force a vote when victory was uncertain. He never fleshed out those claims, at least publicly, and Straus was elected in a voice vote without objection.
On the other end of the building, the Senate left its two-thirds rule in place โย thatโs the one some Republicans were worked up about โ and instead made a change that takes must-pass sunset legislation out of the hands of Sen. Judith Zaffirini, a Laredo Democrat who is not beloved in the Republican Caucus. Last year, Dewhurst moved her from the top spot in the Higher Education Committee and put her in charge of Government Organization. Thatโs where all of the sunset legislation goes, or was, until the new rules were passed. Now those bills go to their respective jurisdictional committees, and the sponsors of those bills donโt have to solicit favorable treatment from Zaffirini, who might turn out to be the most interesting idled senator since Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock busted Ike Harris, R-Dallas, in 1991.
* * * * *
Last, the three state leaders are back to their weekly breakfasts and since itโs the start of the session, itโs kumbaya time. Perry, Dewhurst and Straus agree publicly that lawmakers shouldnโt rush to spend money and that they should concentrate on infrastructure, water, transportation, education and truth in budgeting. Perry wants money for tax breaks. Dewhurst wants to save money against the school finance verdicts.
Preliminary budgets and working papers should come out next week from the Legislative Budget Board, the House and the Senate.
Texas lawmakers donโt meet for 140 days every two years โย they meet during a 140-day period every two years. They take off for weekends, and more. Presidential inaugurations and holidays, for instance. Next week, theyโll meet for three days and then theyโll break for six. The week after that, theyโll hear the governorโs State of the State speech. Then theyโll name committees. Then theyโll start working on legislation.
* * * * *
The special election to replace the late Mario Gallegos is underway in Houston, with early voting for the eight people โ four Democrats, two Republicans, a Green and an independent โ who signed up. Election Day is Saturday, January 26.
* * * * *
The state Constitution doesnโt set the time for it, but it does apparently require senators to draw lots after their districts are drawn to find out who was elected to two-year terms and who was elected to four-year terms. There has been talk of waiting to see what the U.S. Supreme Court does with outstanding redistricting litigation, but tradition would have senators drawing sooner than that. Two year terms could arguably be vexing for Sens. Donna Campbell, R-New Braunfels, and Wendy Davis, D-Fort Worth. Campbell, a freshman, could face a challenge from San Antonio, where the same business community that ran over incumbent Republican Jeff Wentworth in the primaries would like to bring the seat back to their city. Davis has won twice in Republican territory, but never in a gubernatorial election year without Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.
It might not matter who draws what. The court could order changes that put all 31 Senate districts on the ballot once again in 2014, and the calculations could all change with new maps.
Texas Tribune donors or members may be quoted or mentioned in our stories, or may be the subject of them. For a complete list of contributors, click here.


