Poll finds Cornyn, Paxton in dead heat in Texas’ Senate GOP primary

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A new poll of Texas’ Senate GOP primary shows Sen. John Cornyn leading Attorney General Ken Paxton by 1 percentage point, breaking a spell of public polling that had found the incumbent trailing by wide margins.

In a sample of nearly 500 registered Texans planning to vote in the Republican primary, Cornyn garnered 30% of the vote to Paxton’s 29% — well within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error. Much of the Republican electorate is up for grabs, with 37% saying they were undecided.

If neither candidate wins 50% plus one vote in the March primary, the top two candidates would advance to a May runoff.

The poll was conducted by Emerson College between Monday and Tuesday — the first public survey of the bitter primary since Cornyn allies began deploying millions in advertising. Paxton and his allies, meanwhile, have largely kept their powder dry, waiting to go up on air until closer to the primary.

Groups affiliated with Senate Republicans have committed enormous resources to Cornyn, arguing that a Paxton candidacy would jeopardize the party’s hold on the seat and cost more money to defend. In a slideshow obtained by Punchbowl News, Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC linked to Senate GOP leadership, projected that Republicans would need to spend over $200 million on Paxton in a general election.

But in a broader pool of 1,000 Texas voters, the Emerson poll found both Republicans beating Democrat Colin Allred — the highest-profile declared Democratic candidate — beyond the margin of error. Cornyn garnered 45% to Allred’s 38% in a hypothetical matchup, while Paxton led 46% to 41%.

The latest findings differ significantly from previous surveys of the primary. The SLF presentation found that Paxton led Cornyn by an average of 17% across 13 polls between January and June. Emerson, like many pollsters, underestimated Republicans in 2024, finding in October that Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump led his Democratic counterpart, Kamala Harris, by 7 percentage points in Texas and that Allred was within 1 point of Sen. Ted Cruz. Ultimately, Trump won by about 13 percentage points and Cruz won by more than 8 points.

Both Cornyn and Paxton are pursuing an endorsement from Trump, who has yet to weigh in on the contest and has endorsed both men in prior races. The Emerson poll suggests that the Trump endorsement could be the deciding factor for voters unsure of who they plan to support.

“Seven months ahead of the Republican Primary, the contest between the four-term incumbent and the Attorney General is a toss-up,” Emerson executive director Spencer Kimball said in a statement, noting the large share of voters who had yet to make up their minds. “Among these undecided voters, President Trump’s job approval stands at 73%, suggesting his endorsement could be pivotal in such a close race.”

Beyond the Senate race, the poll found Trump’s approval rating remains much higher in Texas than nationally, with 49% approving of the job he’s done as president and 42% disapproving. Gov. Greg Abbott is less popular but still above water, with a net approval rating of 3 percentage points.

Texans continued to rank the economy and immigration as their top issues, but their order has flipped since before the 2024 election, with the economy now taking the top spot at 30%. Amid Trump’s crackdown at the border, illegal crossings — which had already begun to drop under President Joe Biden after spiking earlier in his term — have plummeted to the lowest level in decades.

Looking ahead to 2028, Texas Republicans’ preferred presidential candidate is Vice President JD Vance, the Emerson poll found. Vance stands far ahead of the field at 45%; Cruz, who ran for president in 2016, is second at 9%.

On the Democratic side, no prospective candidate had a clear lead. Former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg led the field with 22% support, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 20% and 2024 nominee Harris at 17%.

Finally, the survey found that voters are paying close attention to state Republicans’ effort to redraw Texas’ congressional map to yield more GOP seats.

Nearly 80% of voters said they are following redistricting very or somewhat closely. And they had mixed feelings about it: 36% support the redraw, 38% oppose it and 26% are unsure. But independents are against it by a margin of 19 percentage points.

Texas House Democrats decamped to blue states en masse to freeze the Legislature’s redistricting process, and Republicans have issued arrest warrants to attempt to compel them to return. Again, Texas voters were split — 41% agreed that the fleeing Democrats should be arrested, while 37% did not.

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