As the floods hit, Kerrville officials’ messages show lack of information about what was coming

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The day before the Guadalupe River rose 34 feet in the small Hill Country city of Kerrville and swamped areas along the river banks, Mayor Joe Herring Jr. messaged the city manager with anticipation.

“Big day tomorrow at LHP,” Herring wrote, likely referring to Louise Hays Park, where a Fourth of July festival was planned with bands and fireworks.

“Yes it is!” City Manager Dalton Rice replied. “And it seems we got some rain too!”

A whole lot more rain was coming.

A review of emails and text messages sent to and between Kerrville city officials offers new details of what happened over the next 24 hours, showing how a city manager notified colleagues and council members that the river was rising. Some seemed to struggle to grasp the magnitude of the flash flooding that killed young girls sleeping in summer camp cabins upriver and sent a wall of water pushing along the Guadalupe River toward them.

As state lawmakers prepare to hold a hearing in Kerrville on Thursday morning about the floods, important questions remain about the local and state response to the horrific storm that ravaged small communities along the Guadalupe and left more than 100 people dead across Kerr County.

National Weather Service forecasters were pushing out warnings overnight as flooding intensified, leaving time for people to get out of harm’s way. But it has been unclear who, especially in leadership positions, saw those early messages and how they reacted. The scenario showed what experts say is a need for people to have multiple ways to get warnings and agencies to have multiple ways to put them out.

In the first state-level hearing on the floods last week, legislators heard that there is no mechanism for the state to be sure local leaders are awake and aware of how they need to be responding to a disaster, and there are no standard qualifications for emergency management coordinators who are working for cities and counties.

The emails and texts offer a window into the response in the city of Kerrville, but Kerr County has not yet released any communications among its top officials, who are responsible for emergency management across the county, including the hard-hit communities upriver from Kerrville where many of the county’s flood victims were swept away.

The city released its internal messages to ProPublica and the Texas Tribune in response to a request filed by the news organizations under the Texas Public Information Act.

Some comments from officials in text messages and a press release indicate that, at first, they were more focused on the flooding ruining the city’s Fourth of July celebration — a disconnect that emergency management expert Samantha Montano said highlights a common struggle for people to understand a disaster as it unfolds and underscores the need for strong local emergency managers.

The state’s relatively well-funded and well-regarded emergency management team in the past has obscured the lack of money and insufficient capability at the local level to respond effectively to a disaster, Montano said. But in this case, that chronic problem shone through.

“There was so much focus on the local government in this event, more so than a lot of other disasters because of the warning failures,” Montano said. “That has kind of stuck now.”

Rice, the city manager, noted in a text message: “Most of our team have not been through a disaster of this scale.”

A text from Kerrville’s mayor early July 4 shows that he was waiting to hear from the city manager about what specific actions he might need to take as the flood came up in the city, and an email to the city fire marshal indicates that all off-duty fire crew were called in well after the river rose.

Despite the initial confusion, Kerrville police were keeping an eye on flood-prone areas and low water crossings before the worst of the flooding struck. They closed those roads to traffic, then began evacuating structures first in harm’s way, Chief Chris McCall wrote in an email to The Texas Tribune.

And McCall did receive a warning that Kerr County pushed out at 5:02 a.m. about flooding in Hunt — a town some 13 miles upriver from Kerrville — on a system called Code Red, according to the city records. It’s not clear how many people received that message, which typically requires people to sign up for the alerts, or who authorized sending it.

That alert came nearly four hours after the National Weather Service issued its first flash flood warning in Kerr County.

Around that same time, 5 a.m., the gauge on the Guadalupe River in Kerrville shows the water started to rise quickly.

Thirty minutes later, texts among Kerrville officials began to fly.

Thursday July 3

Weather-related emails were landing in Kerrville Emergency Management Coordinator Jerremy Hughes’ inbox. He had just put in for retirement before the storm, Herring said. The daily National Weather Service “threat brief” shared by the state operations center predicted minor river flooding in southwest to southeast Texas, and a slight risk of flash flooding, according to the records. Nothing too scary.

Another state message informed Hughes that a flood watch had gone into place early that afternoon for Kerr and seven other counties, meaning meteorologists had identified conditions conducive for flooding. The email encouraged people to “have a plan of action in case a storm threatens.” Forecasters predicted one to three inches of rain, with as much as five to seven inches in some spots. The threat felt more specific.

Hughes received an updated report from the National Weather Service too, the copies of his emails show, reiterating the information. Again, meteorologists urged people in flood-prone areas to be prepared.

Kerrville Executive Director of Public Works and Engineering Stuart Barron passed a similar email around to other city staff.

Meanwhile, Fire Battalion Chief Jaran Floyd was getting organized, messaging a department group to ask for a head count in case they faced issues that weekend. People responded: A raised-hand emoji. Available. Available. Two hours away but available. And so on.

1:14 a.m. Friday July 4

Rain pounded overnight. In Kerr County, it would come down much heavier than meteorologists had predicted; more than 12 inches would fall over the south fork of the Guadalupe River between 7 a.m. July 3 and 7 a.m. July 4, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.

The National Weather Service put out its first flood warning at 1:14 a.m. for Kerr County, which the agency said automatically triggered alerts to radios and cell phones if people had reception and didn’t disable them. That warning also got pushed through Code Red, according to the records.

Around 3 a.m., a gauge showed the river rising steeply in Hunt, where the south and north forks meet.

Hunt Volunteer Fire Department Chief Lee Pool woke that morning to voices on the radio he left on in his house, he said in an interview with the Tribune later in July. He heard the word “flood,” realized the river was rising and headed for the station in his Ford F-150. Around 4 a.m. the river in Hunt reached what is considered “major” flooding levels — and kept rising.

Pool reached a point where water ran over the road. He turned back, but was blocked again by floodwaters.

“That’s when I realized the magnitude of this,” he said.

Pool said he put in a request for a Code Red. A recording obtained by KXAN timestamped his call at 4:22 a.m.

The dispatcher responded, “We have to get that approved with our supervisor.”

Pool found a hill where he could wait it out. Hay bales floated by like corks. He watched a car come down the raging river with people inside. It was too dangerous to help.

The flood hadn’t yet hit Kerrville, 10 miles downstream.

At 4:58 a.m., someone texted Kerrville Police Chief Chris McCall, warning him the south fork of the Guadalupe had risen 29 feet.

“Holy smoke,” McCall replied.

Minutes later, at 5:02 a.m., according to the city records, Kerr County issued a Code Red: “IF YOU ARE IN THE HUNT AREA ALONG HIGHWAY 39 OR THE RIVER, EVACUATE THE AREA OR GET TO HIGHER GROUND.”

5:36 a.m. Friday July 4

Assistant City Manager Michael Hornes texted City Manager Rice and Assistant City Manager Kimberly Meismer about the rain pounding Hunt. In Kerrville, the water had risen to the base of the stage at Louise Hayes Park, Hornes said. The river was sweeping away the portable toilets staged for the July 4 festivities.

“It’s rising quickly,” Rice wrote back. “I made some rounds early this morning.” (Rice had been out jogging earlier that morning, he would tell reporters.)

Eight minutes passed.

Rice texted the Kerrville City Council: “Good morning. Major flooding on Hwy 39 at Casa Bonita rd past Hunt. 2 water rescues and 2 people stuck on the roof. Hunt (Volunteer Fire Department) and (Texas Intrastate Fire Mutual Aid System) boat team on scene. We have 3 more TIFMAS teams headed to the area and we are on standby. More information coming in.”

“Water is rising out at Louis (sic) Hayes Park more to follow.”

“Thanks for the news,” Council Member Kent McKinney wrote. “We get too little or, at times, too much rain at once.”

“Ugh!!!” wrote Council Member Brenda Hughes. “Not what we needed today.”

At 6:15 a.m.: Rice texted a group of 15 people, including city department heads, to tell them they were activating a command post, and that the park was under water.

“Please notify your on call and emergency teams and stand by,” he said, adding, “situation is developing rapidly.”

The city posted a statement to Facebook soon after that still reflected a lack of understanding of the flood’s size and scope.“Much needed rain swept through Kerrville overnight, but the downside is the severe weather may impact many of today's scheduled July 4th events,” read the post, which was also issued as a news release. “Citizens are encouraged to exercise caution when driving and avoid low water crossings. Kerrville Police and Fire Department personnel are currently assessing emergency needs.”

Sometime after 6:37 a.m. Herring, the mayor, wrote to the city manager, “I stand ready to do my duty as needed.”

Seven minutes later, according to federal gauge data, the Guadalupe River at Kerrville reached its peak.

The aftermath

Kerrville was not the hardest-hit place during the July 4 flooding, but it didn’t escape unscathed either. Officials reported multiple rescues and evacuations, according to the records. The Walmart became a reunification point. The First United Methodist Church became a shelter.

Awful things happened: A park employee found a child’s body, according to one email. The city attorney, working to get a disaster declaration filed so the city could get federal funding, learned a friend had died in the flood.

As the extent of the disaster became clear, city leaders got bombarded with interview requests from television stations, messages from volunteers trying to find out how to help and solicitations from businesses trying to sell their disaster response services.

Some people sent messages of support; others eviscerated them. One person wondered why police officers didn’t see the river rising. “What happened here?” Another wrote to the city emergency management coordinator Hughes: “RESIGN.”

Council Member Jeff Harris described at a July 8 council meeting going out to a city where he had lived for 20 years and not recognizing it.

Assistant City Manager Michael Hornes told the council at that meeting about the destruction: The water treatment plant was damaged; eight cabins, 10 RV sites and other tent sites at Kerrville-Schreiner Park had to be evacuated as the parkland went under water; an RV hit an apartment building and pushed it off its foundation.

The city decided to turn soccer fields into a place to collect millions of cubic yards of tree and vegetative debris, Hornes said.

Herring, the mayor, said in an email to The Texas Tribune that the city on Thursday would provide the Legislative committees "a complete timeline of the city's response."

"I believe this timeline will dispel notions of a delayed response at the city level," Herring wrote. "This timeline, in my opinion, shows city staff following our emergency plan well — especially given we had no accurate warning of what was unfolding in real time."

County officials, meanwhile, have declined interviews and instead leaned on a statement from Rice: “From the start, the city and county have pledged transparency and a full review of the disaster response, and we stand by those commitments.”

No details about that review have been publicly released.

Lexi Churchill contributed reporting.

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