Texas Hill Country floods: What we know so far

The floods swept away local residents, summer campers along the river and many visitors who were in the scenic area for the Fourth of July weekend.

At least 128 people died across Texas due to flooding. Authorities in Kerr County added seven more casualties to its death toll Friday, bringing the confirmed total to at least 103 in the county alone. On Friday, Travis County added one more casualty, bringing the death toll for the other five counties in Central Texas affected by flooding to 25.

Earlier this week, the nearly century-old girls’ Camp Mystic confirmed that 27 campers and counselors were among the dead.

With an estimated 166 people still missing across the region, search operations by law enforcement, fire departments and volunteers continue.

The tragedy has left families like that of Tanya Powell mourning. Her 21-year-old daughter Ella Rose Cahill was found dead Tuesday.

“It was like a relieved, happy, sad, horrible, wonderful news. I mean, I can't even describe it, because you're so happy that she's still not out there somewhere,” Powell said. “But at the same time, it's like this final moment.”

Others, like the father of Ella’s boyfriend Aidan Heartfield, continue searching through debris and muddy waters, even as hopes to find anyone alive have dimmed. Local authorities have said they haven’t made a live rescue since last week.

Aidan’s dad, Thad Heartfield, has been channeling all of his energy into leading volunteer search efforts since the afternoon of July 4. A sliver of hope follows him that Aidan — his kind, smart and gentle 22-year-old son — will rest easy soon.

“I always think today’s the day I’ll get a call from a DNA match,” Heartfield said Wednesday. “I’m answering a lot of calls from numbers I don’t know. Every one of those calls, I think this could be that call.”

Roughly 2,100 emergency responders from 10 states have descended on Kerr County to assist with the recovery and cleanup efforts, according to officials. But the Hill Country’s rough terrain and the flood’s devastation — huge debris piles of trees snapped like toothpicks, pieces of broken buildings and mangled cars — have slowed search efforts.

Read more about families’ search efforts and the wreckage.

After failing to pass legislation this spring that would have established a statewide plan to improve Texas’ disaster response, state elected leaders are now promising to address gaps in the state’s flood warning and mitigation systems.

With state leaders set to return to the Texas Capitol on July 21 for a special legislative session, elected officials are promising to address gaps in the state’s flood warning and mitigation systems.

Gov. Greg Abbott, who called the special session after vetoing a THC ban and sets the agenda for these 30-day, overtime lawmaking periods, ordered lawmakers to pass legislation on the following measures this week:

• flood warning systems
• flood emergency communications
• natural disaster preparation and recovery
• relief funding for the impacted areas

Read more about what lawmakers could do in response to the flooding.

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Camp Mystic and many of the other camps along the Guadalupe River sit on land known to be at high risk for a devastating flood. But they’re too far outside any city limits to be more closely regulated.

While cities can largely decide what is built, counties in Texas have no jurisdiction to implement comprehensive zoning rules that could limit people from living or building close to the water’s edge.

Some federal guardrails for building in floodplains, efforts to relocate residents out of flood zones and programs to fortify infrastructure do exist. But relocation programs have had mixed success and many rural counties in Texas don’t have hazard mitigation plans required for infrastructure assistance.

The state’s explosive growth, the appeal of inexpensive flood-prone land and extreme weather make this a pressing concern. A quarter of the state’s land carries some degree of severe flood risk, leaving an estimated 5 million Texans in possible jeopardy.

Read more.

Though flooding is familiar to the Hill Country, the high death toll has raised questions about whether forecasters or local officials in charge of emergency response gave people in the area adequate warning.

Ahead of the devastation, the National Weather Service on Thursday afternoon issued a flood watch — a threat designation that means the conditions are present for a flood to happen — for Kerr County.

At 1:14 a.m., federal forecasters escalated that announcement to a flood warning, a signal that flooding is happening or is imminent. It was sent out three hours and 21 minutes before the first flooding reports came in from low-lying water crossings in the area.

The weather service says that first warning triggered one of many automatic alerts to cellphones and weather radios, telling people in the area of the danger.

NWS officials said they also communicated directly with local officials during the night of the floods, but did not specify when. In some cases, they said, calls went to voicemail. Kerrville’s mayor said he was unaware of the flooding until around 5:30 a.m., more than four hours after that first warning, when the city manager called and woke him up.

Warnings didn’t go up on county Facebook pages until around the same time — when the Guadalupe River had already risen rapidly, spilled out of its banks around Hunt and was making its way toward the county seat of Kerrville.

It remains a mystery whether local officials got the NWS’ initial warning and activated in any meaningful way before the flooding. Officials have not provided clear answers, saying their attention is on search and rescue efforts.

Read more about the flooding and response timeline.

The very features that draw people to Texas Hill Country — hills, multiple rivers and rocky terrain ideal for fishing or camping under starry skies — also make it one of the most flood-prone areas in the country.

The Balcones Escarpment, a major geological feature that cuts across Central Texas, makes for dramatic views and elevation changes in the area. But it can also lead storms to stall and dump heavy rain, as was the case when leftover moisture from Tropical Storm Barry intensified the storms that caused the flash floods.

And when storms roll in, water rushes downhill fast, gaining speed and force as it moves. There’s little to slow it down — thin, rocky soil doesn’t absorb much water, and exposed bedrock and sparse vegetation offer no buffer. Clay-rich soils in parts of the region also prevent infiltration, meaning rain turns to runoff almost immediately.

Between 2 and 7 a.m. on July 4, the Guadalupe River in Kerrville rose 35 feet, according to a flood gauge in the area.

Hydrologists say it’s a “recipe for catastrophic floods” that has merited the area the nickname of “flash flood alley” and has led to about 30 major flooding events of 20 feet or more in the cities of Kerrville, Hunt and Comfort since 1966.

Read more about the history of flooding in the area.