Democrats forced to rethink their political strategy in Texas, reporters say

Sign up for The Brief, The Texas Tribune’s daily newsletter that keeps readers up to speed on the most essential Texas news.

---

Republicans’ continued dominance up and down the Texas ballot in the 2024 election will likely create a rightward shift in governance during the upcoming legislative session — and it suggests Democrats must rethink their strategy to turn the state blue, members of The Texas Tribune’s politics team said at a post-election discussion Thursday.

President-elect Donald Trump beat Vice President Kamala Harris in Texas with a 14-point margin that eclipsed his 2020 margin here, a stunning victory for a candidate who previously refused to accept electoral defeat, was convicted of 34 felony charges and survived two assassination attempts. Counties along the Texas-Mexico border and in the Rio Grande Valley showed the largest shifts towards Trump, in some cases by as much as 25 points.

Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz also bested U.S. Rep Colin Allred, a Dallas Democrat, by nine points in a contentious senate race. That was also better than Cruz’ performance in 2018.

Democrats’ losses suggest their party misunderstood how the average Texan perceives their economic situation, particularly in border counties that swung heavily to favor Trump, said politics reporter Zach Despart. The Democratic party also focused heavily on social issues such as abortion access that may not resonate with all Texans.

“What Republicans did so effectively was tie Harris to the reason why eggs are $4 and the reason why gas is $2.75,” Despart said. “Democrats had this more vague message about how the fundamentals of the economy are strong, and that message does not resonate with voters in places like Laredo.”

Republicans also strategically campaigned on prohibiting transgender kids from playing on sports teams that align with their gender identity. Cruz released an ad painting Allred as not knowing “the difference between boys and girls.”

“We can agree or disagree about whether they should play in school sports, but the messaging is really working,” said politics reporter James Barragán.

The wide margin Republicans captured comes amid a demographic shift in Texas, which has become younger and more diverse in recent years as transplants flocked to the state’s metro areas of Houston, Dallas and Austin. Democrats have long argued that these demographic shifts would favor their party. But exit polls suggest Hispanic voters favored Trump over Harris.

The Tribune panelists emphasized that Republicans’ victories in Texas reflect a nationwide trend, where urban areas once considered Democratic strongholds shifted toward Trump, even if Democrats won down-ballot races. Carlton County in Minnesota, once solidly blue, voted for Trump, for example, as did Miami-Dade County, a heavily Hispanic region.

“If Democrats cannot figure out how to win back the Latino vote, it is going to be tough for them,” said Rebekah Allen, managing editor for enterprise and politics.

At the state level, Republicans flipped two House seats in historically Democratic districts in South Texas. They also swept nearly all local and statewide judicial races and won the only competitive state senate race.

In the spring, a slate of far-right Republican Texas House candidates backed by Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton won their races, ensuring the state Legislature would become more conservative.

Those wins also solidified Abbott’s ability to pass a school voucher legislation, which would create taxpayer-supported bank accounts parents can use to subsidize their children’s private school or homeschooling tuition. Other proposals, such as a bill requiring the Ten Commandments to be posted in public school classrooms, could also pass in a more conservative statehouse.

Next month, the Republican caucus will meet to endorse a candidate for speaker. Republican state Rep. David Cook, R-Mansfield, is running against sitting House Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont, who is considered more moderate and a backstop against far-right legislation from the Senate.

Despart said Phelan may strike a deal with House Democrats to retain the gavel, a move that could help Democrats stop conservative measures from passing through the chamber.

“That would be a bipartisan deal we haven’t seen in several sessions,” Despart said.

The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.