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2010: 83.5% Chance of Republican

Forecasters say incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry has an 83.5 percent chance of a defeating Democratic challenger Bill White in November.

Gov. Rick Perry, speaking to the Texas Federation of Republican Women

In the 2010 race for governor of Texas, forecasters put the chances of a Republican victory at 83.5 percent.

FiveThirtyEight, the polling analysis website recently acquired by The New York Times, unveiled its gubernatorial forecasts on Friday. They currently project incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry to defeat Democratic challenger Bill White with 52 percent of the vote to White's 45 percent.

The odds of Texas having a Republican governor in 2011 aren't as high as states like Arizona, Nevada, Kansas and others that are edging a 100 percent chance of Republican victory. The most comparable states are Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Of those four, all except Georgia have Democratic incumbents. FiveThirtyEight projects that Republicans will control about 30 governorships when all is said and done.

If there is any silver lining for White in these figures, it's that the momentum heading into September appears to be in his direction — his odds of winning have increased from a low of 7.9 percent in mid-June to 16.5 percent, while Perry's odds of winning have dropped to their current perch from a high point of 92.7 percent.

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