Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

State Sen. Glenn Hegar, the Republican nominee for state comptroller, is shown at a TribLive event on May 29, 2014.

Newly installed Comptroller Glenn Hegar will set the early tone for the new legislative session when he releases his state revenue estimate on Monday morning.

The estimate sets a limit on what will be available to lawmakers to spend in the next budget. It also serves as an important indicator as to what the state’s revenue experts expect of the Texas economy over the next couple of years. The unexpected cratering of oil prices in recent weeks has injected a huge note of uncertainty just prior to the legislators’ convening in Austin. So Monday’s announcement is generating more than the usual amount of anticipation.

Meanwhile, the Center for Public Policy Priorities has concluded that the state will need $6 billion more in general revenue in the next budget to maintain current services.

Eva DeLuna Castro, a CPPP analyst, took that figure from state agencies’ budget requests made in the run-up to the writing of the 2016-17 budget. For the current biennium, the state is spending $95 billion in general revenue. Agency requests for the 2016-17 biennium add up to $101 billion.

The biggest increase comes in health and human services, where the agency is requesting $33 billion — up $3.4 billion from the current biennium. The increase is driven by caseload growth in Medicaid and other areas and by medical cost increases.

The state’s retirement systems for teachers and state employees are requesting about $10 billion, an increase of $1.8 billion over the current biennium. The extra funding is needed for health care costs for both state employees and teachers. Also, the state employees pension plan has funding needs that require additional dollars in the budget.

Meanwhile, the Texas Education Agency will be asking for about $33 billion. But that’s $1.1 billion less than the current biennium. The reason, according to DeLuna Castro, is that higher property tax collections are reducing the amount of aid being sent by the state to local school districts.

DeLuna Castro notes that as a “current services” budget, the $101 billion in general revenue “would not undo the cuts in state services that remain from the 2011 session. Nor does this funding level include the many ‘exceptional items’ that state agencies requested but which would either improve state services or address long-neglected issues such as capital repairs or purchases.”

*****

A select group of legislators will be asking for guidance from a higher power just hours after being sworn in on Tuesday.

According to incoming state Sen. Bob Hall, R-Edgewood, an election sermon is scheduled for the Capitol Extension auditorium at 4 p.m.

Hall writes, “Just as our founding fathers that forged this great nation sealed their efforts with prayer and sought the Lord for guidance, I invite you to join my fellow legislators and I, as we seek God's guidance for this upcoming 84th Legislative Session.”

Presenting the sermon is Richard Halbgewachs, pastor at Oak Hill Primitive Baptist Church.

*****

State Sen. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham, has announced her staff for the 84th Legislature. They are:

•    Chris Steinbach, chief of staff

•    Ross Giesinger, general counsel and legislative director

•    Ben Barkley, senior policy analyst

•    Matt Russell, communications director and policy analyst

*****

Land Commissioner George P. Bush has announced a few more hires for his office. They are:

•    Ash Wright, deputy director of government relations for outreach

•    Bryan Preston, digital media director

•    Danielle Treviño, social media strategist

Of the three special elections this week that are now headed to runoff contests, the one generating the most commentary by far is the contest to find the next occupant of the state Senate seat held by Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio.

As expected, two San Antonio Democratic state representatives — Trey Martinez Fischer and José Menéndez — won the most votes and qualified for the next round.

TMF, as Martinez Fischer is often called, won a significant plurality of the vote. He took 43.3 percent of the vote, almost a full 18 points higher than the 25.4 percent won by Menéndez.

Does that mean the runoff will turn into a TMF cakewalk?

Observers are not so sure. As supporting evidence, they point to the cumulative 28 percent taken by a pair of Republican candidates, Alma Perez Jackson and Joan Pedrotti.

The thinking goes that any carryover Republican vote goes to Menéndez because of the big dollars being spent by tort reform group Texans for Lawsuit Reform against Martinez Fischer.

And it may turn out that 43 percent is a ceiling for Martinez Fischer, who cultivates a street-fighter approach to politics and has been known to throw his fair share of sharp elbows.

The counterargument, of course, is that Menéndez would need to have all those Republicans enter his column while not losing his own Democratic support to Martinez Fischer, who can use the TLR attacks on him to rally the Democratic base.

It could also be the case that folks in the Martinez Fischer camp are saying they’re “running scared” as another way of motivating their voters to come out for yet another round of voting.

Of course, it’s anybody’s guess as to who will be bothered to turn out for a runoff election in SD-26. That makes the business of making predictions here something of a fool’s errand.

Gilbert Garcia of the San Antonio Express-News pointed out in a post-election column that turnout in the first round failed to break 20,000 in a district that produced 175,000 votes in November 2012.

Here’s a pretty good guess: The number of votes will be well south of 20,000 for a runoff. The big question might turn out to be less whether they are D or R and more about whether they are pro- or anti-TMF.

*****

Here are some endorsements of note:

•    The political arm of the Texas Medical Association is endorsing Carolyn Bilski in the House District 13 special election. Bilski is one of four candidates — three of them are Republicans — seeking the House seat vacated by state Sen. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham.

Bilski, who is finishing up her fifth term as Austin County judge this month, has also earned the endorsement of the public education advocacy group Texas Parent PAC.

•    Jared Woodfill's bid to become Republican Party of Texas chairman has earned the endorsement of former Republican National Committeewoman Denise McNamara.

Enlarge

The 84th Legislature is about to start, so we asked our insiders in politics and government about the new people coming into statewide office. We asked about the early odds on the growing Texas field in the race for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, and also about budget and tax issues ahead.

Nine in ten expect big changes out of Lt. Gov.-elect Dan Patrick, who takes over from David Dewhurst — one of the people he beat in the GOP primary — later this month. But most don’t expect big changes from other statewide officials, running from a high of 24 percent who expect major change in the governor’s office to only 7 percent who expect big stuff out of the railroad commission. Aside from Patrick, the insiders expect little change — or none at all — in the offices run by statewide officials.

Jeb Bush is the frontrunner among the candidates with Texas ties in the GOP race for president. Sixty-seven percent of the insiders ranked him as likely to finish first, followed by Rick Perry, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul.

Enlarge Jacob Villanueva

CAPTION.

On the day before the legislative session begins, new Comptroller Glenn Hegar will roll out his first official estimate of the state’s revenue over the next two years. Early indications are that — for his purposes, for now — falling oil prices won’t put a big dent in the forecast of how much money is available to budgeteers. But 46 percent of the insiders predict oil prices will have a big impact on the budget, and 33 percent said it will affect state finances a little bit. About one in six expect the oil prices to have more impact in the next budget, written two years from now.

Finally, we got a sounding on the beleaguered business margins tax. Only 5 percent think lawmakers will eliminate that tax, but 51 percent think lawmakers will reduce the number of taxpayers subject to it, and 23 percent think lawmakers will lower the rates.

As is our habit, we collected verbatim comments along the way and a copy of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Many of the state’s elected officials are new. How will they differ from their predecessors?

• "The biggest changes will be the vendor revolution as Perry's cronies lose their sweetheart deals."

• "The conservative lean will be evident in all of the positions, but the LtGov seat is going to change the most at the whims of our new LtGov."

• "Policy wise, I wouldn’t anticipate the incoming freshman will veer to far from their predecessors. Tone and temperament wise, it'll be like a blue norther just blew through. "

• "Abbott, same policies, different style. Patrick, nothing is sacred. Paxton, who knows? Hegar, big learning curve. Bush, a jumping off office. Miller, all hat. Sitton, ?"

• "In Governor's office, perhaps not much difference in policy positions, but far less cronyism. More thoughtful consideration driving policy decisions, as opposed to politics - at least I think and hope. Just the opposite in the AG's office."

• "I bet this Comptroller can actually do 'Comptroller-y' things like, ya know, correctly estimate state revenues and stuff like that."

• "Very excited to see the innovated ideas George P. will bring to the Land Office."

Enlarge Jacob Villanueva

CAPTION.

Will the drop in oil prices have much effect on the state budget written this year?

• "Lawmakers need to be very careful about spending money on programs that won't be sustainable in two years."

• "Falling oil prices will provide a ready excuse for candidates-turned-lawmakers to get out of everything they promised, including tax-cuts. Besides, they'll also say they need to save money for the public education lawsuit. Transportation is the only winner because people are filling up their tanks and the Constitution protects their funding!"

• "Fiscal restraint was a BIG campaign promise across the board. It's now time to deliver on that promise."

• "If they use their brains.... oil is now 'one time' money...don't spend it on recurring costs.... tax cuts, spending, etc."

• "A lot of effect on the TxDOT budget (because of the new way that money goes to the Economic Stabilization Fund)."

• "Anyone who thinks the budget won't be affected is crazy. The last two sessions saw great prices for oil. In fact, in Feb. 2011, it was at about $110, and in 2013 it was at about $105. Today it's at $52. See the difference? "

• "Although the Texas is economy is diversified well beyond the oil and gas industry today, the O&G impact on state tax revenues is much greater than its impact on the overall State economy."

• "I griped (loudly) when gas was >$4/gal, and now I’m not suppose to be pleased that gas is <$2/gal? Jeez, is this conundrum a paradox or an allegory? Or just plain bullshit?"

• "If half of your heart quits pumping, does it have an effect on your health?"

• "They're already using fairly conservative revenue estimates, which should help matters."

Enlarge Jacob Villanueva

CAPTION.

Will lawmakers manage to change the business margins tax?

• "Reduce, then eliminate it in 2017."

• "It's cheap to buy off lots of small businesses with a bigger exemption, but TTARA won't like it."

• "Funny how 'small businesses' make lots of money these days."

• "The Comptroller finally understands how to implement it; businesses now know how to hide assets from it. The Lege will reduce the # and corral the escapees. "

• "They will probably lower it with some long-term prospect for further relief, or at least studies of whether it can and should be repealed or replaced."

• "Bidness gets what bidness wants"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jennifer Ahrens, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Blaine Bull, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Eva De Luna-Castro, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Neftali Garcia, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Laura Huffman, Kathy Hutto, Deborah Ingersoll, Bill Jones, Mark Jones, Walt Jordan, Lisa Kaufman, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Myra Leo, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Jason McElvaney, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Karen Reagan, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Tyler Ruud, Jason Sabo, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Ben Sebree, Bradford Shields, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Woody Widrow, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Friday, Jan. 9

• Fort Bend GOP 2015 Lincoln-Reagan Dinner, with Gov.-elect Greg Abbott as featured speaker; 11627 FM 1464, Richmond

Tuesday, Jan. 13

• First day of 84th Legislature; 1100 Congress Ave., Austin (12 p.m.)
• SD-16 celebration with state Sen. Don Huffines, R-Dallas; 1607 San Jacinto Blvd., Austin (3:30-7 p.m.)
• HD-13 special election (list of candidates)

Wednesday, Jan. 14

• 10th Annual Texas Transportation Forum; 500 East Fourth St., Austin (Jan. 14-16)
  

Thursday, Jan. 15

• Gov. Rick Perry to address joint session of Legislature; 1100 Congress Ave., House Chamber, Austin (2:30 p.m.)

U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Tyler, was one of several insurgent candidates to challenge House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio for Speaker of the House. The common thread among the challengers was dissatisfaction with Boehner's perceived willingness to work with Democrats on legislation. Boehner ended up winning re-election with Gohmert receiving a total of three votes, including his own.

Voting ended Tuesday night in three crowded elections — in Senate District 26, House District 17 and House District 123 — and all are now headed for runoffs. In SD-26, two state San Antonio Democratic representatives — Trey Martinez Fischer and José Menéndez —  will square off, while former San Antonio City Councilman Diego Bernal, a Democrat, faces off against Republican Nunzio Previtera in the HD-123 runoff. Two Republicans, John Cyrier and Brent Golemon, qualified for the HD-17 runoff. Dates for the runoffs have yet to be determined.

As they weigh the constitutionality of a Texas abortion law, federal appeals court judges on Wednesday challenged arguments presented by the state and abortion providers in tough questioning that buoyed hopes among some abortion rights supporters that new restrictions on abortion facilities might be overturned.

A swarm of small earthquakes started shaking the Dallas area a few days ago, leading teams to head to the area to find out what exactly is behind the sudden occurrence of the temblors.

Gov.-elect Greg Abbott on Thursday called for a citizen panel on government waste to replace the Sunset Commission. He said the Sunset system “seldom eliminates unnecessary agencies.” In addition, he called for an end to local bans, ranging from prohibitions on plastic bags to tree removal to fracking.

The Texas Water Development Board's three members on Thursday unanimously voted for the 72,000-acre Marvin Nichols Reservoir — which the thirsty Dallas Fort-Worth region hopes to build in Northeast Texas — to stay in the State Water Plan. The vote, though, dismayed opponents from counties where some of the land would have to be flooded to make way for the reservoir.

State or local government employees giving out same-sex marriage licenses would stop receiving their salaries under a bill filed Wednesday for the 84th legislative session. The bill, filed by state Rep. Cecil Bell, R-Magnolia, is an attempt to stop the courts from overturning the state's ban on same-sex marriage. Oral arguments are set for Friday in a federal appeals court on the constitutionality of the ban.

Gun rights advocates announced this week that they will use a 3-D printer to manufacture weapons at the Texas Capitol during an armed rally set for the opening day of the 2015 legislative session.

Gov. Rick Perry, who is in the final two weeks of his time in office, has issued a large set of judicial appointments. They are:

• Bonnie Sudderth of Fort Worth to the 2nd Court of Appeals
  
• Cindy Bourland of Round Rock to the 3rd Court of Appeals
• Jason Pulliam of San Antonio to the 4th Court of Appeals
• David Schenck of Dallas to the 5th Court of Appeals
• Bill Miller of Texarkana to the 5th Judicial District Court
• Bobby Burnett of Munday to the 50th Judicial District Court
• Mark Pittman of Fort Worth to the 352nd Judicial District Court
• Tiffany Haertling of Denton to the 442nd Judicial District Court

The terms for all eight appointments run through the 2016 general election.

Lori Wrotenbery has joined the Railroad Commission of Texas as the new director of its oil and gas division. She comes to the agency from the Oklahoma Corporation Commission where she was director of administration.

Karen Robinson, the state's chief information officer and executive director of the Texas Department of Information Resources, officially retired on Dec. 31. She will take over as U.S. president of Robots and Pencils, Inc. in February.

Mike Rosen left Congressman Michael McCaul's press shop at the end of December. He reports that he has accepted an offer from an Austin technology firm to be its government affairs director.

Mark Miner and Holly DeShields have been hired by McGuireWoods Consulting to direct its Austin office. Miner served as chief spokesman for Gov. Rick Perry in his gubernatorial campaigns and his presidential campaign. DeShields served as chief of staff for state Sen. Mike Jackson, R-LaPorte.

Brian Garrett Yarbrough and Janiece Crenwelge have announced the formation of BGYarbrough & Associates, offering legal and governmental affairs consulting services.

Gay Gaddis has been named the next chairwoman of the Texas Business Leadership Council. Gaddis, the founder of the T3 advertising agency, is the group's sixth leader in its 20-year history and the first woman to hold the post.

John Hall has hired on as Texas director for the Environmental Defense Fund's clean energy program. His past public service includes stints as the executive director for the Texas Environmental Research Consortium in Houston as well as chairman of the Texas Water Commission and the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission.

Disclosure: The Texas Business Leadership Council was in 2013 a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.