In several races, Tuesday’s election results didn’t match the findings of the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll two weeks earlier. What happened?
Daron Shaw
Daron Shaw is a government professor at the University of Texas. He has polled in mayoral, congressional, gubernatorial, and presidential elections and has written two books and numerous articles on public opinion, voting behavior and political campaigns.
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Politics
The Polling Center: What Early Poll Results Tell Us
The latest UT/TT Poll showing a single-digit lead for Greg Abbott over Wendy Davis in the gubernatorial race raised some eyebrows. Adding some context to a survey taken more than a year before Election Day helps provide some clarity on the results.
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University of Texas/Texas Tribune Polls
The Polling Center: UT/TT Poll Changes With Evolving Environment
By increasing our sample size and providing more analyses of the data in our blog, we hope to provide interested parties with what they seek: in-depth coverage of the actors and issues that are driving important parts of the political process in the state.
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University of Texas/Texas Tribune Polls
The Polling Center: Refining the UT/TT Poll
The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll has a bigger sample size than its predecessors — the better to see what various subgroups of Texans are thinking about politics and policy in the state.
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Politics
The Polling Center: Finding the Actual Voters
So how to create a likely voter model? Campaign pollsters typically use a combination of past voting history — available off the registered voter list — and current interest and engagement. Those who have voted in the past, as well as those who are jazzed about voting this year, tend to get into the likely electorate.
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Demographics
The Polling Center: Is Rick Perry Really Vulnerable?
Make no mistake: A Democrat running in a statewide race in Texas who is not losing by double-digits is doing relatively well. But this raises the larger question: Can Bill White actually win?
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Politics
The Polling Center: Location, Location, Location
At this point, anti-incumbent sentiment in Texas appears to be dwarfed by party identification and opposition to the national Democratic Party.
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Politics
The Polling Center: Poll Roads
An election that initially favored Sen. Hutchison has settled into a contest where Sen. Hutchison’s support is in the high 20’s while Gov. Perry’s is in the mid-40’s.
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Politics
The Polling Center: First Take on the February 2010 Results
The University of Texas / Texas Tribune poll, conducted from February 1-7, shows Gov. Rick Perry holding a 24-point lead over U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican gubernatorial primary contest, with Debra Medina posing a surprisingly strong challenge to Hutchison for second place.
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Politics
The Polling Center: Full Crosstabs
Full crosstabs for the University of Texas/Texas Tribune October 2009 statewide survey are presented in two documents: one for the main data set and another for a supplemental dataset of reinterviews for the Democratic gubernatorial primary race.Crosstabs are presented by party identification (PIDLean), race, gender, age, and education level. The PIDLean variable includes respondents who […]