Texas bloggers are musing over the Nov. 6 election. They're also dusting off their crystal balls to peer into the future, their maps of Fort Worth to look at state House District 97, and for some, their campaign shoes to stump for Democrat Rick Noriega for U.S. Senate. And at the end, there's an index of miscellany.

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Looking back

McBlogger questions the sobriety of voters who okayed constitutional amendments he didn't support, as well as the intelligence of sitting Texas Senators, whom he also doesn't support. Here's Professors-R-Squared's predictions for Nov. 6. And here's how they did. Meanwhile, BurkaBlog tells readers how he planned to vote.

Greg's Opinion gives predictions for and offers analysis of Houston-area election results, while Off the Kuff reviews his prognosticating here. Meanwhile, Grits for Breakfast summarizes results of ballot items related to prisons and jails.

In the wake of 16 more amendments to the state constitution, The Texas Cloverleaf is calling for a 2009 Texas Constitutional convention. The results are in: for a reader-response poll about the Texas Youth Commission given by Grits.

A former speechwriter for the Terminator, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, is producing copy for Lance Armstrong, notes Postcards from the Trail, the Austin American-Statesman's blog, who also reports that Armstrong calls Cathy Bonner "the mother of Proposition 15," and says state Sen. Jan Nelson, R-Lewisville, can be the grandmother. Prop 15 supporters celebrated at the Driskill Hotel in Austin. Coverage from Postcards here and from KVUE's Political Junkie here.

Armstrong and Rep. Patrick Rose, D-Dripping Springs, ran a New York City marathon, reports Postcards. Meanwhile, Blue has a Prop. 15-themed interview with former Comptroller John Sharp and Rep. Ellen Cohen, D-Houston, here.

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Looking ahead

Annex reflects on the 2002 redistricting and predicts that the Republican era of Texas is almost over. Via Blue, Chris Bell calls the GOP strategy from 1990-on, "the great overreaching." And Rio Grande Valley Politics writes a letter to Texas GOP Chair Tina Benkiser that begins, "Girl, you're making it harder and harder for me to like you."

Are recent events in Ohio a harbinger of things to come for Texas? Burnt Orange Report sure hopes so. In the meantime, Capitol Annex predicts Houston Mayor Bill White, riding high on a recent reelection, could prove to be another Tony Sanchez if he runs for governor in 2010.

U.S. Senator Kay BaileyHutchison "doesn't want to be vice president," reports Postcards. And Texas Blue is thrilled that presidential candidate and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Lake Jackson, is making a splash, because it's a sign of the splintering of the GOP. (Texas Observer Blog is talkin' 'bout Paul in this post.)

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Looking up

Burnt Orange says any HD-97 candidate receiving support from House Speaker Tom Craddick is doomed. According to this item from Postcards, Republican Mark Shelton must not have gotten the memo. "Is Mark Shelton a Dirty, Rotten, Lying, Cheater?" queries Burnt Orange.

Burnt Orange comments on the HD-97 results here. BurkaBlog has analysis here. Here's some more from Political Junkie.

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Looking to Washington

Former Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry writes in to Burnt Orange in support of Noriega. Meanwhile, Annex is on Cloud Nine following former Democratic Presidential candidate Gen. Wesley Clark's endorsement of Noriega. Half Empty thinks Clark's endorsement is worth even more than the endorsement by Kerry.

Burnt Orange takes issue with Texas GOP spokesman Hans Klingler's reckoning of how much Texas blogs have raised for Noriega. Meanwhile, McBlogger calls him a "tard," and also indicts Texas Politics blogger and Houston Chronicle reporter R.G. Ratcliffe for swallowing the GOP's spin "hook, line and sinker." Postcards has a summary of the action here.

Noriega left a San Antonio fundraiser to comfort a supporter who was taken to another house after suffering what might have been a heart attack, reports Annex. And Blue has an audio interview with Nurse Noriega here.

Texas Observer talks to Noriega's newly-knighted online coordinator (and Burnt Orange publisher) Karl-Thomas Musselman. And Noreiga staffer Rick Cofer is Austin's least-eligible bachelor, lobbies Burnt Orange.

Former Independent senatorial candidate Ray McMurrey, a Corpus Christi teacher, is challenging Noriega in the Democratic Primary, reports Texas Politics.

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Looking Around

Rep. Aaron Peña, D-Edinburg, cuts the ribbon for a new museum exhibit, as related in his A Capitol Blog. "Talk radio king" Chris Baker got the axe from Clear Channel Houston, reports BlogHOUSTON, who also says that the Houston Chronicle's circulation remained steady over the past six months.

Burnt Orange Report opposes Ron Wilson's possible appointment as Department of Public Safety commissioner because of his ties with Houston rapper Lil Flip, the "Freestyle King," and Texas Politics blogger Peggy Fikac nearly ran over Wayne Slater of the Dallas Morning News and wife Dianne.

The Texas Association of Business isn't the biggest fan of El Paso legislators, says Vaqueros & Wonkeros, the El Paso Times's blog, while BurkaBlog and conservative site Redstate.com have a little tiff. The first link goes to Burka, and this one goes to Redstate's post.

Political Junkie has a three-parter on the state government's systematic purging of e-mails, here, here and here.

Republican incumbent Mike Jackson, R-La Porte, is in trouble in state Senate District 11, according to numbers from Democratic challenger Joe Jaworski, says Burnt Orange. Jaworski chides Governor Rick Perry for the state's slow response to Hurricane Rita in a letter relayed by Capitol Annex.

Rep. Byron Cook, R-Corsicana, has drawn a pro-Craddick opponent, Bobby Vickery, in the Republican primary for HD-8, says Annex. And State Supreme Court candidate Susan Criss is urging fellow Democratic candidate Linda Yañez to pursue a different seat on the court.

Lobbyists Andrea and Dean McWilliams are the Texas co-chairs for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's presidential bid, says Postcards. Meanwhile, Right of Texas is pinging cyberspace for a challenger to U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards, D-Waco.

And Grits wins Headline of the Week award for a post chock-full of links titled, "Why nobody likes Judge Keller and she should quit and go home."

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This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria and finds Austin's climate pleasantly arid. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey.

Democrat Chris Bell is suing Republican Rick Perry over the provenance of $1 million in campaign money in last year's gubernatorial election.Bell's suit, filed in Travis County, says the Perry campaign accepted $1 million in contributions from a Republican Governor's Association PAC that wasn't registered to operate in Texas, and thus hid the actual contributor of the money from voters before the elections. According to the suit, RGA accepted more than $1 million in contributions from Houston builder Bob Perry before making the contribution to Gov. Perry (no relation). But because of the way the donations operated, there was no way for voters to know that before they voted. Perry reported receiving the money, according to the suit. But RGA didn't make its required Texas filings, so there was no way for voters to follow the money back to its source. In the lawsuit, Bell alleges both RGA and the Perry campaign broke the law: RGA for not filing with the Texas Ethics Commission, and the Perry campaign for accepting money from an outfit that wasn't legally doing business in the state. Randall "Buck" Wood, Bell's attorney, said the RGA should have filed in Texas, and should have kept its corporate donations and non-corporate donations in separate legal entities. And the Perry camp should have checked before it took two contributions totaling $1 million. "They have a responsibility for making sure it's kosher," he said. "You can't take that money. It's not legal." The lawsuit, attached, asks for double damages, and with two transactions — giving and receiving — that's $4 million.

Bell's lawsuit started a back-and-forth.

A spokesman for the RGA called it a frivolous lawsuit, and said that outfit "complies with both state and federal laws." An aide to Perry called it "a paperwork error" and said the campaign made a mistake in referring the committee as a PAC. "We'll refile it the right way," said Robert Black.

Black wasn't done. He sent reporters a letter from Bell to Perry asking to be considered for the state's Washington lobby contract, and suggested Bell filed the suit because he didn't get that lobby gig.

Black also disputed the idea that Perry got money from Bob Perry, saying the governor's contribution came from the Republican Governor's Association and that there was no illegal earmarking of Bob Perry's contribution to RGA — no agreement to pass that along to the Texas governor.

At the time, Perry's campaign was blasting Bell for more than $2 million in campaign loans from Beaumont lawyer John O'Quinn. Getting $1 million from the Houston builder might have taken the starch out of the governor's attack, but Black said that's not what happened.

"If we were going to take money from Bob Perry, we'd just take it," he said. "I don't think there's any comparison between this and O'Quinn."

Like the state Senate District 11 contest between Mike Jackson and Joe Jaworski, the SD-10 race pits a potentially well-funded Democratic challenger, fresh out of city council, against a potentially better-funded Republican incumbent.

Like Jaworski, Democrat Wendy Davis is putting her money on purplish demographics in the district and constituents fed up with an out-of-touch officeholder. Republican Kim Brimer, like Jackson, remains confident in the continued redness of his region and a voting record his consultant says speaks for itself.

SD-10 encompasses the majority of Fort Worth and much of the suburban area wrapping around the city from the southwest to the northeast.

Tarrant County native Davis is a graduate of Texas Christian University and Harvard Law School. Davis is CEO of a title company. She wants to take her hands-on style of municipal governance — honed by more than eight years on the Fort Worth City Council — to the state political arena. Her campaign will focus on public education, healthcare costs, transportation issues, and utility rates, she says.

Brimer has been working in Austin since 1988, serving 14 years in the House before being elected to the Senate in 2002. He's the chair of the Sunset Advisory Commission and the Senate Administration Committee and sits on a handful of other committees. "It's arguable that not any other single legislator had more impact on economic development legislation in Texas than Kim Brimer," consultant Bryan Eppstein says.

In addition to economic development, Brimer's campaign will highlight his efforts to increase funding for highways and roads, his tough-on-crime stance and his work to "preserve constitutional rights and individual freedoms," says Eppstein.

In contrast, Davis, according to Eppstein, "likes to trample on constitutional rights" of property owners, gun owners and crime victims. "This is a population that doesn't take very kindly to that," he says.

Brimer, says Davis, suffers from "ethical lapses."

"What I hear repeatedly from people is, they don't know him," she says. "He's not working with them. What they feel is a sense of disenfranchisement between themselves and that representative."

To make that point, Davis points to the results of a poll by the Lone Star Project, which calls itself a "non-ideological" group dedicated to thwarting "the rhetoric and misinformation typically provided by the current Republican State Leadership in Texas and Texas Republicans in Washington." LSP is a spin-off of the Lone Star Fund, started by Matt Angle, a Democratic congressional staffer and political advisor to former U.S. Rep. Martin Frost, D-Dallas. Most of its targets have been Republicans.

The poll, conducted by Opinion Analysts in May, showed that about 18 percent of likely SD-10 voters gave Brimer a favorable rating, 7 percent were unfavorable, and 25 percent were neutral. The rest didn't know him.

"After 19 years in Austin, half the voters knew so little about him they couldn't rate him," Davis said. "Those that did know him didn't think very favorably of him."

"That's just hogwash. People know who Kim Brimer is, and they have a strong opinion of him," Eppstein says. "Outside of [Davis's] city council district, people don't know who she is."

Eppstein says the Brimer campaign's polling paints a different picture from the Lone Star Project's. "How do you know they didn't make the numbers up? It looks like they made the numbers up to me," he says.

Jeff Smith, president and owner of Opinion Analysts, assures that they did indeed conduct a survey: "Yes, we ran the poll, and they were likely general election voters."

"I've never been accused of making up the numbers, or not even running the poll," says Smith. "Yeah, it was a real poll."

Davis says her city council district comprises about 60 percent Democrats and 40 percent Republicans. Citing a 2006 race for district attorney, she says SD-10 is "trending much more toward a 50/50 split."

Eppstein predicts that if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for President (which Eppstein thinks she will be), Clinton will lose SD-10 "by more than 20 points," and that Davis's open support for Clinton will hurt Davis within the district.

Tarrant County Democratic Party Chair Art Brender isn't convinced that the Presidential candidates will lend an advantage to either party. "They want to take Clinton? I'll take Giuliani," he says.

On the flip side, Brender doesn't think that Clinton's gender will boost the numbers of fellow female Davis. The sort of people who make their minds up to vote for someone on the basis of one factor, such as gender, normally don't take the time to learn much of anything about the candidates, he says: "So I don't know if Davis has an advantage running against a 'Kim Brimer.'"

Eppstein believes Davis would have trouble in a general election because of her opposition to the collective bargaining rights of Fort Worth firefighters and police officers.

And he's not so sure that Davis will even make it out of the Democratic Primary, though she doesn't have a declared opponent.

Brender briefly considered running for the Senate spot, and he says his opposition to Davis isn't based on personal differences, but is "issue-based." Brender, too, thinks that Davis's opposition to collective bargaining could come back to haunt her, either in the general election or primary.

And he echoes Eppstein about potential Democratic candidates: "People have inquired, but they do not want to announce that they are inquiring."

Brender is concerned that Davis voted in the 2006 GOP primary and in April donated $500 to U.S. Rep. Kay Granger, R-Fort Worth. According to the Federal Election Commission's website, Davis has given $1,500 total to Granger since 2004, $250 to George W. Bush in 1999, $500 to former Democratic U.S. Rep. Martin Frost in 2004 and $1,000 to Clinton in 2007. (The same database shows that Brimer gave $500 to the Tarrant County Republican Victory Fund in 2004.)

"I don't know when she turned around and decided to run as a Democrat for state Senate," he says.

For her part, Davis says the idea began incubating during this past legislative session, and hatched after several prominent Democrats in the community talked to her about running.

"I think I bring something to the table that is fairly unique for a Democratic candidate," she says. "I'm very much a moderate Democrat. I have a very strong history of working with the business community."

Financially, Brimer has a big head start on his challenger, reporting nearly $1 million in the bank in July. However, Davis says she "will not be outworked on the campaign trail," and plans to raise $2 million during the campaign.

"Senate campaigns generally cost upwards of $1 million or $2 or more million," says Eppstein. "We are anticipating that type of campaign."

— by Patrick Brendel

If everyone in the HD-97 special election had done on Election Day what they did in early voting, your runoff candidates would be Democrat Dan Barrett and Republican Bob Leonard.

Barrett, the only Democrat in a seven-candidate field, finished first in early and Election Day voting. The only candidate to break 30 percent, he got into the runoff.

But Leonard's fortunes turned, as did those of Republican Mark Shelton. Leonard dropped from 21.8 percent of the vote to a final tally of 18.6 percent. Shelton got 19.3 percent early, but finished with a total of 22.9 percent. If they'd each maintained their early percentages, Leonard would have finished with 560 more votes than he got. Shelton would have finished with 640 less. Nobody else's swings were close.

What happened? Leonard's team puts some of the blame on Election Day anonymous automated calls reminding voters of a Leonard vote for a tax bill in the late 1980s. There's talk of making formal complaints to the Public Utility Commission, which has jurisdiction over phone spam, as well as to local prosecutors. The spam complaint would probably hone in on two things: Some of the calls were made before 9 a.m.,  and they didn't identify their makers in the first 30 seconds. Both of those are no-nos, which is why the carpet-cleaners call you at dinner time and say who they are.

The Shelton team credits a ground campaign that had his fellow doctors and their cohort hitting the phones and knocking on doors.

Either way, look at the long game. The runoff election will be next month, and the winner will serve for about a year. The primary elections for a full term are in March. The filing period for those primaries opens on December 3 and ends January 2. If the noise gets loud enough over those phone calls, they could be an issue in both elections. And if Shelton gets roughed up, it could encourage some of the Republicans he beat to try again. A bold challenger could even file before the runoff election.

What's with the headline? It's from a nursery rhyme: "If 'ifs' and 'ands' were pots and pans, there'd be no work for tinkers."

Rudolph Giuliani is leading Hillary Clinton in Texas at the moment, according to a poll done for the Texas Civil Justice League.

The Fort Worth-based Eppstein Group did the poll, and say the Republican has the support of 51 percent of the state's registered voters, while the Democrat has 34 percent.

They didn't make the entire poll public, but trickled out a couple of other bits. U.S. Sen. John Cornyn leads Democratic challenger Rick Noriega 53 percent to 27 percent (in fairness, Cornyn's run several statewide campaigns and Noriega has run only in Houston and so is less well-known).

And they found Texans want more tort reform and don't like trial lawyers. About 61 percent agree that "additional lawsuit reform is needed"; only 35 percent agreed that "trial lawyers in Texas do a good job of helping protect consumers from injustices of big businesses and bad products"; and 67 percent think "lawsuit abuse is costing jobs and hurting the economy."

Details: 1,001 registered voters "with a history of voting" were polled Nov. 1-6, and the error margin was +/- 3.15 percent.

Federales dragging the sack, a technical detail, and a last-place finish...

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, is making a campaign swing through Texas, doing a fundraiser this week for U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio, and a border tour with U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo. Rodriguez has one certain GOP challenger — Francisco "Quico" Canseco — and a potential one in the wings — Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson.

• Republican presidential candidate Tom Tancredo has two funders in Texas next week. The first is in Heath — east of Dallas — on Monday, and the second's in Houston on Tuesday. And Republican Mike Huckabee of Arkansas hits Austin next week on a fundraising jaunt.

• It's rumor season, so we'll drag out Attorney General Greg Abbott's sixth official opinion (GA-0006), from 2002. It's the one that says you can't be appointed to a position that requires the confirmation of the Senate if you're a legislator whose term has not run out. Remember when Elizabeth Ames Jones, R-San Antonio, ducked her swearing in for a new term to the House so she could be appointed to the Texas Railroad Commission? The present case in point is a rumor that Rep. Mike Krusee, R-Round Rock, is in line for an appointment to the Texas Transportation Commission. Spike that one.

• Bobby Vickery — the Republican challenger to Rep. Byron Cook, R-Corsicana — isn't a political virgin. We missed it last week, but he ran for a spot on the Frost school board in May and came in fourth, with 32 votes.

Some retreads, some newbies, and some official announcements...

Democrat Victor Morales is trying to get the lightning back in the bottle; the former candidate is plotting a run for state Legislature. Morales, who defeated three better-known Democrats in a bid for U.S. Senate in 1996 before falling to Republican Phil Gramm, wants the House seat now held by Rep. Betty Brown, R-Terrell. She's also got a Republican primary opponent in Wade Gent. Since that 1996 race, Morales has lost a Democratic primary for Senate and two congressional races.

• Dee Margo, an El Paso Republican who lost a challenge to Sen. Eliot Shapleigh last year, has bought the land for a new house, a move that would take him out of Rep. Paul Moreno's House district and put him in Pat Haggerty's House district. Haggerty's telling local reporters he expects a challenge. And Margo told the El Paso Times he is moving so his longtime housemaid can work in a one-story house instead of the three-story he and his family call home now.

• Diane Trautman says she'll take another stab at a House seat. The Kingwood Democrat ran against Rep. Joe Crabb, R-Humble, in HD-127 last year. She got 40 percent of the vote, losing by more than 6,000 votes. But she out-performed statewide Democrats in the district — most got 26-30 percent of the vote — and she'll try again in 2008. Trautman is an assistant professor of education at Stephen F. Austin State University.

• Officially: Democrat Art Hall of San Antonio will run for Texas Railroad Commission. The former city councilman and one-time mayoral candidate is an investment banker and wants a shot at the incumbent, Republican Michael Williams... Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond, will run for reelection... Rep. Aaron Peña, D-Edinburg, kicked off his reelection campaign. He's got a rematch with Democrat Eddie Saenz, the guy he beat 64-36 in the Democratic primary in 2004... Republican Lee Jackson — not the former state rep — will challenge Rep. Bill Zedler, R-Arlington. This Lee Jackson is a Fort Worth policeman, and opened his campaign with a blast at school voucher programs and a call for change in eminent domain laws to make it more difficult to seize private property... Sen. John Carona, R-Dallas, will seek another term and he's launched his campaign and his website...

• Republicans aren't forfeiting Dallas County, where Democrats swept local elections last year. They'll have a high-profile candidate for sheriff, who starts with an endorsement from the Dallas Police Association. Irving Police Chief Lowell Canaday will challenge Democratic Sheriff Lupe Valdez next year, if he beats Charlie Redmond, a Mesquite police officer, in the March primary. And a couple of Democrats have talked about challenging the incumbent, which would keep her busy in March. The DPA endorsement is early for that group, but they say they're unhappy with problems at the county jail and elsewhere that have persisted through Valdez' first term. They were joined by police associations from Grand Prairie, Irving, and Wylie.

Maybe it was the threat of rain, or the $3.50 Lone Stars, or the crummy opening band that hasn't had a hit since the 90s (Fastball, remember them?).

Most likely, though, it was the $15 to $25 cover charge that kept the 20,000 supporters that crowded into Auditorium Shores earlier this year away for a free rally from U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, Saturday afternoon fundraiser in Austin.

A Obama staffer pegged the attendance at Saturday's event at 3500, but the bare spots in the crowd suggested a smaller crowd. For his part, Obama threw the crowd some blue meat by attacking George W. Bush's presidency and touching on his own plan to withdraw troops from Iraq, provide universal health care, and raise the minimum wage. And though he didn't mention his chief rival and current poll leader for the Democratic nomination, U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, by name, Obama repeated almost verbatim a new, more forceful, stump speech that he broke out recently in Iowa.

"The old textbook Washington campaign just won't do," Obama says, "Triangulation and poll testing positions because we worried what Mitt [Romney] or Rudy [Giuliani] might say about us just won't do."

Obama spent the earlier part of Saturday privately fundraising with more generous donors in Houston and Austin and was off to Iowa after the rally.

Because Texas' primary is in March, long after the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have usually cemented each party's front runner, don't expect to see Obama much more in the Lone Star state. Ben LaBolt, his deputy press secretary, says the goal of Saturday's fundraiser was designed to "translate the enthusiasm" shown for Obama in Austin into a more concrete grassroots organization to help get out votes and raise money.

Perhaps underscoring the lack of importance Texas' voters have in deciding each party's presidential candidate, state Rep. Mark Strama, D-Austin, told the crowd: "Anybody who leaves here really fired up, and who has a little bit of time on their hands — we need people to go to Iowa, and New Hampshire, and Nevada, and South Carolina, those are the elections that are going to give Barack Obama the momentum to win this. And they will set you up with places to stay."

— by Alan Suderman