Enlarge Graphic by Todd Wiseman

The question of whether the state funds schools adequately is one that has bedeviled lawmakers for decades.

Part of the problem is the difficulty of having a common frame of reference on whether the state is spending more or less on schools.

The first chart shows total public education funding for pre-K through 12th grade, adjusted for compounded state population and inflation growth. When adjusted to constant dollars, the numbers show funding spiked in 2009. What followed afterward was a decrease in public education funding with spending projected to begin growing gradually during the current budget period.

That takes place against a 17 percent increase in student enrollment over the same 10-year period.

The second chart shows the steady decline of the state's percentage share of funding the Foundation School Program, which is the primary method of distribution aid to schools. In this one, the state's share peaked in 2011 at 48 percent. That number has steadily decreased and is projected to drop to 43.1 percent in 2017.

That reflects the rebound in property values across the state, as the state's share drops as local school property tax receipts increase. 

Enlarge Data source: Legislative Budget Board

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Enlarge Data source: Legislative Budget Board

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Enlarge Bob Daemmrich/Marjorie Kamys Cotera

State Reps. José Menéndez (left) and Trey Martinez Fischer, both Democrats from San Antonio, are seeking the Texas Senate seat vacated by Leticia Van de Putte, who is running for mayor of San Antonio.

The runoff race between two San Antonio Democrats to succeed Leticia Van de Putte in the Texas Senate has received by far the most attention of the quartet of special runoff elections set for Tuesday.

The contest is yet another proxy fight between tort reform interests and trial lawyers. The political arm of the tort reform group Texans for Lawsuit Reform has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars directly over the first few weeks of the year to defeat state Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer, a bête noire of tort reformers.

The group and its major donors have also given significant sums to state Rep. José Menéndez, who has spent more than a quarter million dollars on his own to win the race.

Meanwhile, Martinez Fischer has received $250,000 from the law firm of trial lawyer Steve Mostyn and another $50,000 from the political arm of the Texas Trial Lawyers Association.

Here are further details on where the money’s been spent in the run-up to the Feb. 17 election.

Trey Martinez Fischer:

According to his runoff report, Martinez Fischer spent $588,075 from Jan. 1 through Feb. 7.

His single biggest expense was advertising, spending $418,095 with New York-based GMMB Inc. He also spent $43,700 with Austin-based Gold Communications on printing.

José Menéndez:

According to his runoff report, Menéndez spent $269,728 from Jan. 1 through Feb. 7.

The large majority of that went to two places — $140,000 spent with San Antonio-based Barberena on television advertising and $122,171 with the San Antonio-based consulting firm PolitiCo for an assortment of campaign expenses like get-out-the-vote efforts, phone banking and canvassing.

Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC:

According to its runoff report, the political arm of this high-profile tort reform group spent $401,795 from Jan. 1 through Feb. 7.

The vast majority of those expenditures went toward the SD-26 race to benefit Menéndez. The PAC spent $150,225 with Ohio-based Strategic Media Placement on television advertising.

The PAC spent nearly $45,000 with Austin-based consulting firm Murphy Nasica & Associates on get-out-the-vote efforts and $103,350 on direct mail with Oklahoma-based Majority Designs.

The PAC has supplemented that spending further this week with another $32,500 spent on get-out-the-vote efforts with Murphy Nasica & Associates and $8,350 spent on direct mail with Austin-based Berry Communications.

What does all this spending get you? Here’s an example:

Enlarge Marjorie Kamys Cotera

Rep. John Otto R-Dayton, chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, during Tribune Conversation event on February 12th, 2015

The House’s lead budget writer, John Otto, R-Dayton, shed some light Thursday on the developing timetable on producing the next budget.

“I would say that probably by the end of this month, first week in March, you’ll begin to get a feel on where the House is going on spending,” he said in a conversation with Tribune CEO and Editor-in-Chief Evan Smith.

He added, “Obviously, the Senate seems to be moving much faster this go around than the House is on appropriations.”

With that said, Otto said the two chambers are not too far apart on spending levels.

After factoring for things like the Senate including tax relief in its budget planning, the chambers are $360 million apart.

“Both chambers are very close on the introduced bills,” Otto said. “Now, are there differences in the allocation of those numbers? Yes. Definitely. And those will be worked out as we go forward.”

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Senate Finance Chairwoman Jane Nelson, R-Flower Mound, filed legislation on Wednesday aimed at further decreasing the gap between the number medical school graduates produced by the state and the number of residency slots available to them.

Lawmakers have concentrated for the past few legislative sessions on the residency portion of the training pipeline for producing new doctors. A relative lack of slots is leading many medical school graduates to leave Texas for their residencies, making it less likely that they will practice here.

SB 18 would use an additional $60 million written into the Senate base budget to encourage residencies in practice areas with the highest demand across the state and in rural and underserved areas.

Also, SB 18 would spend more on existing programs aimed at increasing the number of family and primary care doctors.

The legislation would create an additional $300 million source for funding future expansion of medical residencies through the elimination of the Texas Medical Liability Insurance Underwriting Association.

Nelson’s efforts build on her legislation from last session that created 83 new residency slots.

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A plunge in oil prices won’t shrink Texas’ economy, but it will slow growth, Moody’s Investors Service said in a report Monday. That slower growth will intensify competition between advocates wrangling for a slice of the state’s revenue pie.

Unsurprisingly, the report said, Houston, Midland and Odessa “will feel more economic strain” than other major metro areas across Texas.

In a note to investors on Monday, Citgroup lowered its forecast of average WTI prices in 2015 from $54 to $46 per barrel, according to the Economic Times. That note included this ominous quote: “It’s impossible to call a bottom point, which could, as a result of oversupply and the economics of storage, fall well below $40 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), perhaps as low as the $20 range for a while," the investment bank reportedly said.

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We started off this week’s survey of politics and government insiders with questions about who might benefit the most from the tax cuts that might come from this legislative session.

Nearly three in five said business owners would come out ahead on the apportioning of tax relief. About 30 percent believed residential property owners would be the winners. About one in eight took the pessimistic route, saying neither side would win.

Vaccinations are in the news with a measles outbreak prompting a national conversation on where parental rights end and governmental responsibility to maintain public health begins. Despite one state lawmaker filing legislation on the topic, two-thirds of the insiders this week said lawmakers would not make it more difficult for parents to opt out of vaccinating their children.

We also asked the insiders for their picks from a list of wild-card issues that could emerge from the session. Most thought medical marijuana was the mostly likely to break out, followed by vaccinations and water fights. Insiders also pointed to lobby spending on lawmaker meals and pension reform as other wild-card candidates.

We also asked what were the big surprises coming out of the House committee appointments and who were the biggest winners and losers. The changes at the top of some key committees, such as Insurance, got the attention of many of the insiders.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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When the gavel falls on sine die, who will have gotten the better end of the deal on tax cuts?

• "First-year state officials know who brought them to the dance. They have to provide a victory for residential property owners."

• "The Legislature will give the greater tax cuts to those who have more votes. That will only exacerbate the disparity between businesses and homeowners, but what is new."

• "Business owners — because they have better lobbyists, duh."

• "Both groups will get some relief, but our commercial property taxes are so blooming high, any relief will be of more import to business owners."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Will the Legislature make it more difficult for parents to exempt their children from being vaccinated?

• "Common sense will prevail on this issue: if you want to exercise the right not to vaccinate, you should not enjoy the benefit of public school enrollment."

• "We live in a state of Republican primaries where libertarians provide a healthy voter base. As dumb as this debate is, it is still a re-election issue."

• "The question that needs asking is, how many members haven't vaccinated their kids?"

• "Not when the counties registering the highest percentage of exemptions just happen to be in the districts of the committee chairs where those types of bills are usually referred."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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What could turn out to be the wild-card issue of the Legislature?

• "The lobbyist entertainment bill will provide an existential scare to those under the Pink Dome. We can only assume Geren was tasked with filing this bill to ensure it dies in committee."

• "The drought is not over and water is not a settled issue."

• "Pension reform for public safety workers. All five large cities want it and public safety unions have been making donations and endorsements over the past two years in preparation for this show down. It will draw thousands to the capitol and set off fierce, emotional debate."

• "Watch for a total derailment of the legislative process over vouchers."

What was the biggest surprise in the House's committee appointments? The biggest winner? The biggest loser?

• "Most surprising is that the Turner 19 were not all assigned to the Select Committee on Select Committees."

• "Moving Smithee from Insurance chair — big deal not necessarily noticed by folks."

• "Change can be good, but the loss of institutional knowledge is painful on some of these committees."

• "Winner: Joe ‘every time I think (or say) I’m out — they pull me back in’ Pickett"

• "The biggest winner is the Democrat Party because it has once again proven its complete control over the Straus leadership team."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Jennifer Ahrens, Victor Alcorta, Brandon Alderete, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Walt Baum, Amy Beneski, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, William Chapman, Harold Cook, Kevin Cooper, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Eva De Luna-Castro, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Neftali Garcia, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, Thomas Graham, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Jason McElvaney, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Ted Melina Raab, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Ben Sebree, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Sara Tays, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Friday, Feb. 13

• Early voting ends in runoff special elections for SD-26, HD-13, HD-17 and HD-123.

Saturday, Feb. 14

• Valentine's Day

Monday, Feb. 16

• Presidents' Day federal and state holiday

Tuesday, Feb. 17

• Gov. Greg Abbott State of the State Address; 1100 Congress Avenue, Austin (11 a.m.)
• Runoff special elections for SD-26, HD-13, HD-17 and HD-123.
  
• 2015 Texas Association of Business Annual Conference; 208 Barton Springs, Austin (Feb. 17-18)
• Health Care 2015 and Beyond: A REACH Symposium; 1 Trinity Place, San Antonio (8 a.m.-1:30 p.m.)

An external review released Thursday on lawmaker and regent influence at the University of Texas at Austin found that campus President Bill Powers has helped secure college admittance for some students over the objections of the admissions office. UT System Chancellor Bill McRaven later said that he'd be taking no disciplinary action against Powers or any other university officials.

The Senate State Affairs Committee passed bills on Thursday that would lift a ban on concealed handguns at university campuses and allow license holders to carry holstered handguns openly. Both measures passed 7-2, with the committee's two Democrats voting against, and now proceed to the full Senate.

House budget writers heard from leadership at the Department of Public Safety and the National Guard on the status of the surge aimed at stopping illegal border crossings. What lawmakers heard was that rotating officers through the Valley wears them out and that Guard troops want more predictability for their lengths of deployment.

Officials with the TxDOT and Xerox surprised senators Wednesday by reporting that 30,000 drivers with valid TxTag accounts were erroneously mailed bills for using the state’s toll roads.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Gov. Greg Abbott endorsed fellow Republican Nunzio Previtera in Tuesday's special runoff election in the Bexar County-based House District 123. Previtera, a State Republican Executive Committee member, faces off against a former San Antonio Councilman, Diego Bernal, in the runoff.

Lisa Craven has been named the comptroller's designee to the State Water Implementation Fund (SWIFT) advisory committee. She is currently Comptroller Glenn Hegar's chief of staff.

Trey Newton has left the General Land Office — where he was deputy commissioner and chief of staff — to return to consulting work. Newton, who was previously senior adviser to the George P. Bush campaign, said, “The reality is I was only going to be around for transition, maybe for session. This was planned all along.” What accelerated his decision, he said, “was that 2016 started early this year.”

Pamela McPeters is stepping down next week as chief of staff for state Rep. Dawnna Dukes, D-Austin, after 13 years. She is leaving to become director of public policy for the Texas Association for the Protection of Children (TexProtects). Dukes has tapped Ariane Marion to succeed McPeters as chief of staff.