The Texas Weekly Index

Candidates can file to run in the 2016 elections in Texas starting on Saturday (Nov. 14) and running through Monday, Dec. 14. The primaries are on March 1 and early voting begins on Feb. 16, the Tuesday after President’s Day.

With that in mind, we wanted to post up the current state of play, listing incumbents, whether they plan to seek another term, and the Texas Weekly Index for the area they represent. In the case of senators, we also note which seats will be on the ballot in 2016.

The Texas Weekly Index is a measure of the political environment of each political district — averaging the results in competitive statewide races in which both parties had candidates. The Index is the difference between those average winners and losers, marked as either a Democratic or Republican advantage with an R or a D. This latest version averages the results in 2012, a presidential year, and 2014, a gubernatorial year. It’s not a prediction of what might happen, but a look back at what has happened before.

Each chart is sortable, and we’ll put out a full update when the prospective candidates have actually signed up to run.

 

Texas Weekly Index, Statewide (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
OfficeIncumbentPartyRetiring?TWI
RRC Porter, David R N R 18.6
SCOTEX 3 Lehrmann, Debra R N R 18.6
SCOTEX 5 Green, Paul R N R 18.6
SCOTEX 9 Guzman, Eva R N R 18.6
CCA 2 Meyers, Lawrence D N R 18.6
CCA 5 Johnson, Cheryl R N R 18.6
CCA 6 Keasler, Mike R N R 18.6

 

Texas Weekly Index, Congress (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
DistrictIncumbentPartyRetiring?TWI
1 Gohmert , Louie R N R 46.5
2 Poe , Ted R N R 29.9
3 Johnson, Sam R N R 33.2
4 Ratcliffe, John R N R 47.9
5 Hensarling , Jeb R N R 31.8
6 Barton , Joe R N R 18.7
7 Culberson , John R N R 25.3
8 Brady , Kevin R N R 56.7
9 Green, Al D N D 53.3
10 McCaul , Michael R N R 20.8
11 Conaway , Mike R N R 61.6
12 Granger , Kay R N R 35.5
13 Thornberry , Mac R N R 62.3
14 Weber, Randy R N R 19.5
15 Hinojosa , Ruben D N D 11.6
16 O'Rourke, Beto D N D 23.3
17 Flores , Bill R N R 24.7
18 Jackson Lee , Sheila D N D 50.5
19 Neugebauer , Randy R Y R 53.5
20 Castro, Joaquin D N D 15.2
21 Smith , Lamar R N R 22.7
22 Olson , Pete R N R 28.9
23 Hurd, Will R N R 08.1
24 Marchant , Kenny R N R 26.4
25 Williams, Roger R N R 21.3
26 Burgess , Michael R N R 38.9
27 Farenthold , Blake R N R 24.6
28 Cuellar , Henry D N D 14.8
29 Green, Gene D N D 29.6
30 Johnson , Eddie Bernice D N D 57.0
31 Carter , John R N R 24.0
32 Sessions , Pete R N R 18.9
33 Veasey, Marc D N D 40.8
34 Vela, Filemon D N D 15.3
35 Doggett, Lloyd D N D 26.1
36 Babin, Brian R N R 46.7

 

Texas Weekly Index, Senate (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
DistrictIncumbentPartyTerm ending?Retiring?TWI
1 Eltife, Kevin R Y Y R 45.7
2 Hall, Bob R N N R 29.5
3 Nichols, Robert R N N R 51.2
4 Creighton, Brandon R Y N R 41.9
5 Schwertner, Charles R N N R 29.9
6 Garcia, Sylvia D Y N D 30.4
7 Bettencourt, Paul R N N R 38.8
8 Taylor, Van R N N R 28.5
9 Hancock, Kelly R N N R 23.9
10 Burton, Konni D N N R 09.6
11 Taylor, Larry R Y N R 32.1
12 Nelson, Jane R Y N R 36.6
13 Ellis, Rodney D Y N D 65.4
14 Watson, Kirk D N N D 24.3
15 Whitmire, John D N N D 16.6
16 Huffines, Donald R N N R 19.4
17 Huffman, Joan R N N R 23.8
18 Kolkhorst, Lois R Y N R 39.2
19 Uresti, Carlos D Y N D 05.6
20 Hinojosa, Juan "Chuy" D Y N D 11.4
21 Zaffirini, Judith D Y N D 14.4
22 Birdwell, Brian R Y N R 38.9
23 West, Royce D N N D 60.0
24 Fraser, Troy R Y Y R 46.1
25 Campbell, Donna R N N R 31.9
26 Menendez, Jose D Y N D 21.9
27 Lucio, Eddie D Y N D 30.8
28 Perry, Charles R Y N R 52.6
29 Rodriguez, Jose D Y N D 25.6
30 Estes, Craig R N N R 52.8
31 Seliger, Kel R N N R 63.8

 

Texas Weekly Index, House (2012 & 2014 elections)
Source: Texas Weekly analysis of Texas Legislative Service Data
DistrictIncumbentPartyRetiring?TWI
1 VanDeaver, Gary R N R 41.8
2 Flynn, Dan R N R 55.0
3 Bell Jr., Cecil R N R 58.5
4 Spitzer, Stuart R N R 48.6
5 Hughes, Bryan R Y R 52.3
6 Schaefer, Matt R N R 45.3
7 Simpson, David R Y R 46.7
8 Cook, Byron R N R 49.1
9 Paddie, Chris R N R 42.9
10 Wray, John R N R 47.7
11 Clardy, Travis R N R 48.5
12 Kacal, Kyle R N R 28.7
13 Schubert, Leighton R N R 53.6
14 Raney, John R N R 31.5
15 Keough, Mark R N R 56.3
16 Metcalf, Will R N R 64.3
17 Cyrier, John R N R 22.4
18 Otto, John R Y R 43.6
19 White, James R N R 52.7
20 Farney, Marsha R N R 45.2
21 Phelan, Dade R N R 45.9
22 Deshotel, Joe D N D 33.3
23 Faircloth, Wayne D N R 10.3
24 Bonnen, Greg R N R 47.6
25 Bonnen, Dennis R N R 42.0
26 Miller, Rick R N R 32.6
27 Reynolds, Ron D N D 36.1
28 Zerwas, John R N R 34.3
29 Thompson, Ed R N R 28.3
30 Morrison, Geanie R N R 40.9
31 Guillen, Ryan D N D 19.0
32 Hunter, Todd R N R 17.6
33 Turner, Scott R Y R 48.1
34 Herrero, Abel D N D 06.7
35 Longoria, Oscar D N D 27.5
36 Muñoz Jr., Sergio D N D 44.0
37 Oliveira, René D N D 29.8
38 Lucio III, Eddie D N D 25.1
39 Martinez, Armando "Mando" D N D 42.4
40 Canales, Terry D N D 48.4
41 Guerra, Robert "Bobby" D N D 09.4
42 Raymond, Richard D N D 45.3
43 Lozano, Jose Manuel R N R 6.8
44 Kuempel, John R N R 40.0
45 Isaac, Jason R N R 14.1
46 Dukes, Dawnna D N D 55.4
47 Workman, Paul R N R 18.1
48 Howard, Donna D N D 18.2
49 Naishtat, Elliott D N D 46.3
50 Israel, Celia D N D 18.1
51 Rodriguez, Eddie D N D 59.5
52 Gonzales, Larry R N R 14.3
53 Murr, Andrew R N R 55.3
54 Aycock, Jimmie Don R Y R 15.9
55 White, Molly R N R 38.5
56 Anderson, Charles "Doc" R N R 42.8
57 Ashby, Trent R N R 48.2
58 Burns, Dewayne R N R 55.7
59 Sheffield, J.D. R N R 56.0
60 Keffer, Jim R Y R 65.7
61 King, Phil R N R 64.6
62 Phillips, Larry R N R 49.5
63 Parker, Tan R N R 48.5
64 Crownover, Myra R Y R 23.7
65 Simmons, Ron R N R 21.7
66 Shaheen, Matt R N R 27.0
67 Leach, Jeff R N R 26.7
68 Springer, Drew R N R 61.8
69 Frank, James R N R 51.4
70 Sanford, Scott R N R 43.1
71 King, Susan R Y R 56.2
72 Darby, Drew R N R 55.7
73 Miller, Doug R N R 58.9
74 Nevárez, Alfonso "Poncho" D N D 11.2
75 González, Mary D N D 39.4
76 Blanco, César D N D 50.3
77 Marquez, Marisa D Y D 24.9
78 Moody, Joe D N D 03.1
79 Pickett, Joe D N D 24.0
80 King, Tracy D N D 30.4
81 Landgraf, Brooks R N R 55.4
82 Craddick, Tom R N R 64.4
83 Burrows, Dustin R N R 60.0
84 Frullo, John R N R 35.9
85 Stephenson, Phil R N R 26.8
86 Smithee, John R N R 68.4
87 Price, Four R N R 58.0
88 King, Ken R N R 65.2
89 Laubenberg, Jodie R N R 37.5
90 Romero Jr., Ramon D N D 46.5
91 Klick, Stephanie R N R 38.4
92 Stickland, Jonathan R N R 26.8
93 Krause, Matt R N R 24.5
94 Tinderholt, Tony R N R 24.3
95 Collier, Nicole D N D 51.1
96 Zedler, Bill R N R 18.1
97 Goldman, Craig R N R 21.5
98 Capriglione, Giovanni R N R 52.6
99 Geren, Charlie R N R 37.4
100 Johnson, Eric D N D 51.9
101 Turner, Chris D N D 26.5
102 Koop, Linda R N R 12.7
103 Anchia, Rafael D N D 38.8
104 Alonzo, Roberto D N D 40.9
105 Anderson, Rodney R N R 10.6
106 Fallon, Pat R N R 39.3
107 Sheets, Kenneth R N R 8.3
108 Meyer, Morgan R N R 21.1
109 Giddings, Helen D N D 61.8
110 Rose, Toni D N D 75.2
111 Davis, Yvonne D N D 52.0
112 Button, Angie Chen R N R 17.1
113 Burkett, Cindy R N R 10.4
114 Villalba, Jason R N R 15.6
115 Rinaldi, Matt R N R 17.5
116 Martinez Fischer, Trey D N D 19.7
117 Galindo, Rick D N R 00.9
118 Farias, Joe D Y D 09.4
119 Gutierrez, Roland D N D 18.0
120 McClendon, Ruth Jones D Y D 24.2
121 Straus, Joe R N R 26.0
122 Larson, Lyle R N R 39.5
123 Bernal, Diego D N D 21.8
124 Minjares, Ina D N D 18.3
125 Rodriguez, Justin D N D 15.4
126 Harless, Patricia R Y R 30.8
127 Huberty, Dan R N R 41.6
128 Smith, Wayne R N R 47.6
129 Paul, Dennis R N R 32.5
130 Fletcher, Allen R Y R 55.3
131 Allen, Alma D N D 65.3
132 Schofield, Mike R N R 25.1
133 Murphy, Jim R N R 41.7
134 Davis, Sarah R N R 14.5
135 Elkins, Gary R N R 23.5
136 Dale, Tony R N R 13.5
137 Wu, Gene D N D 18.3
138 Bohac, Dwayne R N R 25.3
139 Turner, Sylvester D Y D 48.8
140 Walle, Armando D N D 37.4
141 Thompson, Senfronia D N D 72.9
142 Dutton Jr., Harold D N D 53.5
143 Hernandez Luna, Ana D N D 32.8
144 Peña, Gilbert D N R 00.8
145 Alvarado, Carol D N D 17.7
146 Miles, Borris D N D 55.3
147 Coleman, Garnet D N D 57.2
148 Farrar, Jessica Cristina D N D 14.0
149 Vo, Hubert D N D 10.3
150 Riddle, Debbie R N R 41.5

 

In Houston Mayoral Runoff, A Rush To Tout Support

Mayoral candidate for City of Houston, Rep. Sylvester Turner on Nov. 4th, 2015. Turner obtained 32% of the vote and will compete in a runoff election with Bill King.
Enlarge Marjorie Kamys Cotera
Mayoral candidate for City of Houston, Rep. Sylvester Turner on Nov. 4th, 2015. Turner obtained 32% of the vote and will compete in a runoff election with Bill King.

Houston mayoral candidate Sylvester Turner rolled out Tuesday a list of endorsements from a group of Hispanic elected officials, which includes several of his colleagues in the Legislature.

Those legislative endorsements include: state Sen. Sylvia Garcia and state Reps. Jessica Farrar, Carol Alvarado, Ana Hernandez and Armando Walle. Joining them in endorsing Turner are Houston City Councilmen Robert Gallegos and Ed Gonzalez, Houston ISD school board member Juliet Stipeche and Constable Christopher Diaz.

His opponent in the runoff, Bill King, was working on his own list of prominent Hispanic supporters on Tuesday, which included several former heads of the Houston Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. Here’s the list: Massey Villarreal, Tony Grijalva, Lupe Fraga, George Gonzalez, Irma Diaz Gonzalez, Gilbert Herrera, Rick Jaramillo, Gasper Mir, Armando Perez and Adan Trevino.

Drawing immediate attention was the inclusion of Villarreal, who also led the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce from 1992-98. In recent years, he’s also been active among Hispanic Republicans in calling on the party to temper its tone on immigration reform.

In the first round of voting, Villarreal supported the candidacy of former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia who ended up finishing third in the voting.

With word of Villarreal’s support of King, Garcia tweeted out his appreciation for the help received from his “longtime friend and a good man.”

*****

King released on Thursday an open letter to Houston city employees in which he attempts to reassure them that he will not make changes to their current benefits but will instead push to put new employees into defined-contribution plans.

King writes:

“Why? Because defined-benefit plans allow politicians to promise public employees a retirement benefit without going through the painful process of asking taxpayers to pay for those benefits. Instead, the liability for the promised benefits is kicked down the road to our children and our grandchildren.

“In defined-contribution plans, however, the full contribution must be funded each year.

“There are other ways to address the problem, but continuing on the current path is not an option. It will result in a financial disaster for everyone — massive tax increases like we are seeing in Chicago, drastically reduced benefits for current retirees, and more.”

*****

In the Republican primary for attorney general last year, Ken Paxton received a big boost when U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas expressed support for the then-state senator.

With Cruz now running for president, is Paxton ready to return the favor? Not yet, the attorney general said last Friday.

Speaking with reporters in Lubbock at a meeting of Texas Republican women, Paxton said he is not making an endorsement in the 2016 race — "for now." He nonetheless had praise for Cruz, calling the U.S. senator "very bright," "extremely conservative" and "not afraid of a fight."

"I'm very excited about the presidential race. I think we have a lot of great candidates, and he's one of them," Paxton said of Cruz.

Of course, Paxton's endorsement could have its downsides. The attorney general is currently under indictment on securities fraud charges stemming from work he did before taking office in January.

*****

Prosecutors in the case against Paxton are defending themselves against accusations they botched the grand jury process — and comparing the attorney general to a popular TV show character.

In a filing made public Tuesday, special prosecutors handling the securities-fraud charges against Paxton said he "has taken a page from the play book of Don Draper, a Madison Avenue advertising executive on 'Mad Men.'" In one episode cited by the prosecutors, Draper tells a colleague, "If you don't like what's being said, then change the conversation."

"That’s exactly what Paxton has done," the prosecutors wrote, accusing the attorney general of trying to cast doubt on the Collin County grand jury that indicted him instead of addressing the merits of the case.

The filing came in response to several motions to dismiss the charges that were made earlier this month by Paxton's legal team. Among other things, the motions raise questions about the formation of the grand jury, which Paxton's lawyers have previously said may have been "empaneled in a matter inconsistent with law."

Paxton is accused of misleading investors in a technology company before he took office as attorney general. He has pleaded not guilty.

*****

Democratic presidential candidate Martin O’Malley has added a stop in Houston to his tour of Texas. The former Maryland governor made several stops Thursday in Austin, and was scheduled for a breakfast reception in Dallas this morning.

He has now added a 6:30 p.m. reception Nov. 20 at a private home in Houston.

A New Legislative Agency Review Is in Planning Stages

The Texas Capitol, May 15, 2015.
Enlarge Todd Wiseman
The Texas Capitol, May 15, 2015.

The offices of Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and House Speaker Joe Straus are in the midst of serious discussions about kicking off a review of legislative agencies, the Tribune has learned.

A group of seven agencies guide the legislative process, including the Legislative Budget Board, the State Auditor's Office and the Sunset Advisory Commission. The overall structure of those agencies and how they influence the legislative process have drawn increased attention this year following LBB's challenge of Gov. Greg Abbott's budget vetoes. In July, Patrick wrote a letter to Straus recommending "a joint special committee" to examine all of the legislative agencies and recommend changes.

As of early this week, those discussions regarding how exactly such a review should be crafted are now well underway.

*****

Straus announced Monday he has formed a select committee to examine the state's behavioral health system. The panel will include state Reps. Greg Bonnen, Garnet Coleman, Sarah Davis, Rick Galindo, Sergio Munoz, Andrew Murr, Toni Rose, Kenneth Sheets, Senfronia Thompson, Chris Turner and James White. State Rep. Four Price, R-Amarillo, will chair the committee and Rep. Joe Moody, D-El Paso, will be vice chairman.

Straus has charged the committee with reviewing issues related to substance abuse, care for veterans, identifying illnesses early and improving delivery of mental health care.

*****

Abbott on Tuesday named his selections to a newly created commission that will make recommendations on how to rework the state’s student assessment and school accountability systems.

Abbott’s appointments are: Mike Morath of Dallas, Andrew Kim of New Braunfels, Theresa Trevino of Austin and Quinton Vance of Dallas.

In addition, Patrick and Straus named their appointees to the commission. The Patrick appointees are: Kim Alexander of Roscoe, Paul Castro of Houston and Michael McClendon of Waco. The Straus appointees are: Pauline Dow of San Antonio, Maria Hernandez Ferrier of San Antonio and Catherine Susser of Corpus Christi.

Morath will serve as the commission’s presiding officer. The panel’s recommendations are due by Sept. 1, 2016.

*****

Texas' highest criminal court has granted a request by Rick Perry's lawyers to let a prominent law professor speak next week at a high-stakes hearing.

The state's Court of Criminal Appeals ruled Wednesday that David Botsford, a lawyer for the former governor, can yield 10 minutes of his time to Eugene Volokh on Nov. 18. That's when oral arguments are being held in connection with Perry's efforts to get rid of the remaining charge against him, which accuses him of overstepping his executive authority when he vetoed state funding for a unit of the Travis County district attorney's office.

Volokh, who teaches at the University of California, Los Angeles and writes a blog for The Washington Post, has been involved in the case for months as a co-counsel on an amicus brief pushing for full dismissal of the charges. Volokh has written that the leftover allegation "unconstitutionally intrudes on the governor's veto power."

*****

A federal appeals court will consider whether a Houston-based company artificially — and illegally — drove up Texas power prices by withholding electricity at a time of tight supply.

The U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals on Monday agreed to hear oral arguments in a lawsuit against GDF Suez Energy North America and its subsidiaries, reviving a complicated case that a lower court dismissed earlier this year.

Aspire Commodities and Raiden Commodities — two companies that trade on the market run by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas  — accuse GDF Suez of withholding electricity generation during times of tight supply to artificially drive up energy prices and later reap millions of dollars in its trades on the commodities futures market.

GDF Suez has denied the allegations, and said it believes “all of our actions have been fully transparent and compliant with applicable regulations.”

The lawsuit says the company of violating the federal Commodities Exchange Act and using the state's “small fish” rule — which critics call a loophole — to escape scrutiny from state regulators.

The Public Utility Commission of Texas rule gives small electricity generators — those said to individually control less than 5 percent of installed capacity on the Texas grid — an absolute defense against allegations of market power abuse. GDF Suez sits just below the 5 percent generation threshold.

For some background analysis on the small fish rule, see this Texas Tribune story from last year.

The New Orleans-based appeals court is set to hear arguments on Jan. 4.

Inside Intelligence: About Those Houston Elections...

Enlarge

For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked about what the results of those Houston elections last week could mean.

The controversial Houston nondiscrimination ordinance, better known as HERO, failed to win 40 percent of the vote, a defeat largely attributable to opponents who successfully framed the vote as a referendum on bathroom access.

We began this week's poll by asking whether Houston city government would attempt to reintroduce HERO in some form. More than two-thirds of the insiders thought the city would try to bring back HERO while nearly a quarter thought the city would leave it alone.

We next asked about the political future of Adrian Garcia, the Harris County sheriff who stepped down to run for mayor. He finished out of the running for the runoff election. Thirty percent of the insiders thought he'd run for the Legislature at some point with another 18 percent saying he would run again for a local office.

Several mentioned in the comments section that a run for Congress was the more likely option for Garcia.

Returning the focus to the men in the Dec. 12 mayoral runoff, 80 percent of the insiders currently give the advantage to Sylvester Turner while 13 percent said they favor Bill King's chances.

Mayoral elections in Texas are nonpartisan but the candidates' partisan leanings are often obvious. With that in mind, we finished by asking whether the state should do away with nonpartisan elections for mayor. Nearly three-fourths of the insiders didn't favor such a change.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Enlarge Emily Albracht
.

The Houston Equal Rights Ordinance (HERO) lost by a 3-to-2 margin. Will Houston city government reintroduce it in some form?

• "This is Mayor Parker's legacy item. She knows she and her consultants screwed this thing up from the start. Parker will use the remainder of her political capital to once again move the ordinance forward. Her problem is that no politician will touch the issue now."

• "At some point, but perhaps they allow some time to pass. The example will be that both Dallas and SA have an ordinance — once Houston starts losing MORE events to those two cities, they will get it passed."

• "Hopefully, what the losers learned from their debacle is that Houstonians read the fine print — you can't pretend to be pushing an equal rights amendment for 15 classes of people, when 13 of those classes already have protection. Had they presented a straight up vote on equal rights for gay people, it would have passed but the 'T' in LBGT will continue to be a problem."

• "The compulsion to enact a HERO disappears with the incumbent mayor."

• "Whomever put HERO on an off-off-year election ballot should be fired."

Enlarge Emily Albracht
.

Former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia failed to make the mayoral runoff. What’s his political future?

• "A run for the Legislature, but not the one you are thinking. You failed to include a run for Congress. Garcia lives in what was supposed to be Harris County's first Latino congressional district. With Hillary on the ticket, I think Gene Green may be sweating a little. The Hispanic vote will have a higher primary turnout than usual, and Gene Green will have to run a full throttle campaign to survive."

• "None of the above. A race for Green's congressional seat makes the most sense, but until he gets a team that understands Hispanic GOTV, he won't win anything."

• "An appointment from the Clinton Administration. Also, he could/may get a security consulting job."

• "Not sure if he has the fire to run again."

• "Hard to bounce back after failing to make a runoff."

Enlarge Emily Albracht
.

Who has the advantage going into the Dec. 12 runoff for mayor of Houston?

• "Turner now has to rely on the Hispanic vote to combine with the black vote. Hard to do. Also, voter turnout will favor the conservative in the current political environment."

• "But he has to get the voters out on a Saturday from Christmas shopping. Not gonna be easy."

• "Runoffs favor Republicans, especially Tea Partiers."

• "It's now a D vs. R election. Houston is a D city. Turner wins."

• "Without HERO on the ballot, King's support will melt away on election day."

Enlarge Emily Albracht
.

King made headlines for receiving support from Republican Sen. Ted Cruz against Turner, a Democratic state legislator. Should mayoral elections in Texas be partisan?

• "Ted Cruz is a resident of Houston so any candidate should be happy to have his vote. It doesn't mean that the candidate is going to govern the same way Cruz governs (or doesn't govern). Does Sylvester Turner support every idea of everyone who has voted for him?"

• "They already are, can you not hear the soothing melodies of those dog whistles accompanying the candidates lyrical talking points? Its nonpartisan in name only."

• "It's good for voters to know candidates beyond party affiliation."

• "Let the candidates run on a party label. It makes it easier to keep score."

• "Of course. Anyone who can't tell a mayoral candidate's party is not paying attention. End the charade." 

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, Elna Christopher, Randy Cubriel, Beth Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Glenn Deshields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jack Erskine, Gay Erwin, Jon Fisher, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Matt Mackowiak, Jason McElvaney, Steve Minick, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerry Philips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Karen Reagan, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, A.J. Rodriguez, Grant Ruckel, Tyler Ruud, Jason Sabo, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Friday, Nov. 13

  • Democratic presidential candidate Martin O'Malley breakfast fundraiser; 325 N. St. Paul St., 49th Floor, Dallas (8-9 a.m.)
  • Texas Agricultural Land Trust (TALT) presents Going, Going, Gone: Impacts of loss of rural land on Water, Wildlife & Agriculture; 215 Veterans Lane, Uvalde (9 a.m.-2 p.m.)

Saturday, Nov. 14

  • First day of filing for candidates to appear on the 2016 party primary ballots
  • Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump rally; Ford Park Arena, 5115 Interstate 10 South, Beaumont (12 p.m.)
  • Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz at South Carolina Rally for Religious Liberty; Bob Jones University, 1700 Wade Hampton Blvd., Greenville, S.C. (12 p.m.)
  • Save Texas History Reception with Land Commissioner George P. Bush; Texas Capitol Visitors Center, 112 E. 11th St., Austin (6:30-9 p.m.)

Sunday, Nov. 15

  • League of Women Voters of Austin panel discussion: Money in Politics with Craig McDonald, Roger Borgelt, Kurt Hildebrand and Sara Smith; 4001 Speedway, Austin (2:30-4:30 p.m.)

Wednesday, Nov. 18

  • State Rep. John Frullo, R-Lubbock, fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4:30-6:30 p.m.)

Thursday, Nov. 19

  • Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF) presents At the Crossroads: Energy and Climate Policy Summit; 901 Congress Ave., Austin (Nov. 19-20)
  • Texas League of Conservation Voters Green Tie Event with Bob Armstrong Conservation Award honoree state Rep. Donna Howard, D-Austin; 400 W. Second St., 2nd Floor, Austin (5:30-7:30 p.m.)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Hours after it became clear that Houston’s nondiscrimination ordinance, HERO, would be trounced at the polls last week, Houston Mayor Annise Parker predicted a “direct, economic backlash” for the city, akin to criticism and boycott threats in Arizona and Indiana following similar controversies. But so far, any visible backlash has yet to materialize, and Houston appears at no risk of losing two upcoming major sporting events.

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and businessman Donald Trump are in a dead heat for the Republican presidential nomination in Texas, and Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead among Democrats, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Add Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick to the growing list of those exhorting Sid Miller to halt his plans to hike fees for a wide range of licenses, registrations and services the Texas Department of Agriculture provides. The Republican joins industry groups such as the Texas Farm Bureau and at least 72 House lawmakers in opposing the fee increases, which would raise millions of dollars that Miller says are needed for the agency to continue to meet its diverse assortment of duties, including licensing, certifying and inspecting agricultural goods such as eggs.

The presidential campaign of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is expanding its footprint in Texas, setting up a statewide office and adding to staff with just under four months until the Democratic primary. In the next few days, the campaign plans to open a Texas headquarters in Austin — among the first known outposts of a presidential campaign in the state besides that of Cruz. The office will be located on the city's east side.

For more than three years, Texas Central Partners has drawn attention with its plans to develop a Dallas-Houston high-speed rail line using Japanese trains. While that project is furthest along, French and Chinese rail interests are more quietly discussing the prospects for rail projects with state and local officials.

A rare debate flub by Cruz Tuesday night sparked a boomlet of social media jokes about Texas presidential candidates, but the White House hopeful's most notable moment came when discussing how he would handle a banking crisis as the country's chief executive. Asked toward the end of the fourth GOP presidential debate about the banking crisis of 2008, and the notion of the government treating some banks as "too big to fail," Cruz said he would let them.

Veterans sentenced to death in Texas murder cases — and nationwide — might have escaped the punishment if juries had been told about their military service and any ensuing mental health problems, according to a Death Penalty Information Center report released Tuesday.

The Obama administration said Tuesday that it would ask the U.S. Supreme Court to consider a controversial immigration program the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals struck down on Monday. The program, Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents, or DAPA, would shield more than 4 million undocumented immigrants in the country from deportation proceedings and allow them to apply for a three-year work permit.

Austin drivers who complain about Interstate Highway 35 have been validated. A new report from the Texas A&M Transportation Institute named the stretch of I-35 between U.S. 290 N and SH 71 as the most congested roadway in Texas.

The head of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency suggested that Texas leaders should play along with her agency’s sweeping Clean Power Plan, if only to avoid a more rigid carbon-cutting plan imposed by the federal government.

As political contrasts crop up in the Houston mayoral race, one campaign is not letting the other forget an apparent endorsement from the highest-profile Republican in Texas: Cruz. A week before voters in Cruz's hometown sent state Rep. Sylvester Turner and former Kemah Mayor Bill King to the Dec. 12 runoff, King revealed in a since-deleted tweet that Cruz had voted for him — and said it was an "honor" to have the conservative firebrand on his side.

While minorities occupy about half of the state’s housing units, they are less likely than white Texans to own their homes, and the state’s largest metro areas have some of the most substantial racial disparities among homeowners, according to recently released U.S. Census data.

To avoid confusion and uncertainty, the state’s 2016 elections for Congress and the Texas House will proceed under the current political maps, a three-judge federal panel in San Antonio said late Friday.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin and the Texas Farm Bureau are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Political People and their Moves

Gov. Greg Abbott appointed Margaret Martin and Rolando Pablos and reappointed Gary Aber to the Texas Racing Commission for terms to expire on Feb. 1, 2021. Pablos is a familiar face at the commission, having served on the commission from 2007-11, serving much of that time as chair. Aber, the holdover appointment, was one of three commissioners who voted earlier this summer to defy lawmakers and keep historical racing.

Abbott also appointed David Saunders of Waxahachie for a term to expire Jan. 31, 2019, and Ryan Hutchison of Austin for a term to expire Jan. 31, 2021, to the governing board for the Texas School for the Deaf (TSD).

Abbott announced on Monday that he's reappointing Brint Ryan to the University of North Texas System Board of Regents. Abbott also named Dallas businessman A.K. Mago and former Southwest Airlines executive Laura Wright to the board.

Attorney General Ken Paxton on Thursday afternoon announced several new appointments to his senior staff. They are: Angela Colmenero, chief of the General Litigation Division; Amanda Crawford, associate deputy for general and legal counsel; Lesli Ginn, chief of the Financial Litigation and Charitable Trusts Division; Pricilla Hubenack, chief of the Environmental Protection Division; Austin R. Nimocks, associate deputy attorney general for Special Litigation; Al Ochoa, deputy director for policy, legal and program operations; Robert O’Keefe, division chief of the Tax Division; and Patrick K. Sweeten, senior counsel for civil litigation.

Texas State University Chancellor Brian McCall announced Tuesday that John Hayek, the current associate vice chancellor and chief of staff for academic affairs at the system, will serve as the vice chancellor in the same department.

Retired Col. Michael Bob Starr on Wednesday made his candidacy official for Texas' 19th congressional district, promising to use his military background to keep the state and country safe. Starr, a former commander at Dyess Air Force Base outside Abilene, had signaled his intent to run in September. He joins an already crowded field of Republicans vying to succeed Randy Neugebauer of Lubbock, who is not seeking re-election next year.

Donald Trump on Monday named Texas tea party activist Katrina Pierson as the national spokeswoman for his presidential campaign. Pierson rose to prominence when she unsuccessfully challenged U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions of Dallas last year in the GOP primary.

Ted Cruz's presidential campaign has hired a former Iowa adviser to Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. David Polyansky, who is based in Houston, has joined Cruz's team as a senior adviser focused on communications and politics.

The Cruz campaign also announced it was rounding out its team in Alabama, naming Alabama Congressman Mo Brooks its chairman there. Alabama is one of the states (along with Texas) holding its primary on March 1.

Former Gov. Mark White on Thursday endorsed state Rep. Sylvester Turner in the Houston mayoral runoff. White, a Democrat, served as governor from 1983 to 1987. Former Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia, who came in third in the Nov. 3 mayoral election, endorsed Turner late last week. Turner on Wednesday received the endorsement of another former opponent in the Houston mayoral race, City Councilman Steve Costello.

SD-24 candidate Dawn Buckingham announced Tuesday that Austin Pregnancy Resource Center President Lori Devillez has given a personal endorsement of her candidacy.

More than a dozen past and current Harris County elected officials are backing Kevin Roberts in his run for the open seat in HD-126. The list includes Sheriff Ron Hickman, County Commissioner Jack Cagle, District Clerk Chris Daniel and Precinct 4 Constable Mark Herman. Among the former officials backing Roberts are former state Rep. Peggy Hamric and former state Sen. Jon Lindsay.

Annie’s List announced Tuesday that Genevieve Van Cleve has been brought in as the group’s political director and Laurie Felker Jones will join its political department and oversee incumbent protection efforts. Van Cleve served as deputy political director from 2009 to 2013 for the group dedicated to electing Democratic women to the Legislature.

Carl S. Richie Jr., chairman of the Housing Authority of the City of Austin, is set to serve as the vice president for the National Association of Housing and Redevelopment. Richie's term is two years.

Disclosure: The Texas State University System, the University of North Texas and Southwest Airlines are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. Brian McCall and Carl Richie are donors to The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Quotes of the Week

This is my first time here, not his.

Jack Osbourne, son of Black Sabbath front man Ozzy Osbourne on their visit to the Alamo last week

Any president who doesn't begin every day on his knees isn't fit to be commander-in-chief of this country.

Republican presidential hopeful Ted Cruz at the National Religious Liberties Conference in Iowa on Friday

Five major agencies that I would eliminate: the IRS, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Energy, the Department of Commerce, and H.U.D.

Cruz, leaving out the Department of Education as he listed at this week’s presidential debate the agencies he would eliminate as president

I’ll put on my rawhide underwear and take all the chewings.

Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller on criticism of a string of fee hikes from his agency poised to start Dec. 1

The summer of Trump had not started when we did the last poll. He was not really in the race.

Jim Henson, co-director of the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, on the surge in support for Donald Trump in the most current survey of GOP presidential candidates. He’s at 27 percent but was at 2 percent in the June poll.