The Texas Weekly Hotlist 2014: Results

For our list of the most competitive legislative and congressional seats in the state, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest in and heat generated by a particular race, then assigning each group a nice loud color.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are in bold. Open seats are rated by the apparent margin between top candidates (closer is hotter) and the threat to the incumbent party's hold on the district. Inside each color, the races are listed by district — not by heat.

This week, it all g0t real, with results to demonstrate which races should have been on the list and which ones really didn't belong. Two of five incumbent Democrats on the list survived, as did all three incumbent Republicans. Republicans won in all of the open seats, including in two that had belonged to lawmakers from the other party. Net: Republicans picked up one seat in the Texas congressional delegation, one in the state Senate (bringing them to 20) and three in the Texas House (bringing them to 98). 

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Five Pre-Session Questions

Speaker Joe Straus walks toward the House on Jan. 8, 2013, the opening day of the 83rd Texas Legislature.
Speaker Joe Straus walks toward the House on Jan. 8, 2013, the opening day of the 83rd Texas Legislature.

With the midterm elections now in the rearview mirror, transition time is upon us. Between now and Jan. 13, when the gavel falls on the opening of the 84th Legislature, here are some questions to keep in mind.

How do Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and the freshman senators interpret their mandate?

Patrick’s temperament and background are unlike any previous occupant of the office in recent memory, which is often described as the state’s most powerful elected position. For those whose living depends on getting stuff done in the Capitol (i.e., the lobby), discerning which direction the chamber will take is of paramount importance.

What are the first things that Gov. Greg Abbott does to establish his own identity/independence?

In his first post-election presser, Abbott laid out a few items intended to show where his priorities lie: yes on open carry, yes on increased border security efforts and skeptical on the continued efficacy of Gov. Rick Perry’s Texas Enterprise Fund.

The latter demonstrated a low-key opportunity to let the outside world know, “I’m not just here to serve out Rick Perry’s fourth term.” What else might he do to elaborate on the message?

Does the anti-Straus faction push for a roll call vote?

They have a candidate in Scott Turner, but will there be a vote? Capitol observers don’t see Joe Straus' position as speaker as being in too much danger, in part because he’s been willing to reach out to Tea Party members and Democrats alike. A speaker vote is ready made for outside groups’ legislative scorecards, which, come to think about it, is a good argument both for and against it happening.

How will the dominos fall in San Antonio?

Unlike Wendy Davis, Leticia Van de Putte had a free pass to run for lieutenant governor because she drew a four-year term at the start of last session and her Senate seat wasn’t up for election this year. But will she be back? Many Capitol observers are convinced she’ll bolt for the mayor’s contest back home in San Antonio next year.

State Rep. Mike Villarreal is overtly planning a way to transition out of the House into a run for mayor as well, and speculation abounds on how he plans to place an ally in the seat to succeed him. This storyline promises to have a few more twists and turns before a resolution occurs.

What’s the price of oil?

This might turn out to be the most important question of all. Oil prices have been showing significant volatility over the past few months. That’s a development that is surely unwelcome to the incoming state comptroller, Glenn Hegar, whose first revenue estimate will likely receive quite a bit of scrutiny.

The state’s economy is considerably more diverse than 30 years ago when the oil boom-bust cycle played havoc with budget writers. That said, if the energy sector were to pull back on exploration efforts, it would have an effect on the state’s bottom line. Given the inclinations of the Legislature these days, that probably would be reflected in the size of the tax relief passed next session.

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Lt. Gov.-elect Dan Patrick named his transition team Thursday, a day after Gov.-elect Greg Abbott identified his first assistant attorney general, Daniel Hodge, as responsible for “coordinating the transition process.”

Patrick said his longtime chief of staff, Logan Spence, will fill the same role on the transition team. Dallas businessman Roy Bailey was also identified as a member of the transition team.

Patrick’s chief campaign strategist, Allen Blakemore, will assist the transition team, as will Wickers Group President Bob Wickers and Sherry Sylvester, communications adviser to Texans for Lawsuit Reform.

Newsreel: Election Week 2014

This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: It's election week and all statewide offices up for election went to Republicans.

Inside Intelligence: About the Transition Ahead...

With a new set of officeholders coming into every one of the executive positions on this year’s statewide ballot, we asked our politics and government insiders about how things are going and what is likely to change with new people in charge.

Two in five believe the state is going in the right direction and is performing well, while 25 percent believe exactly the opposite. Another 18 percent think the government is doing a bad job but is moving in the right direction, while 13 percent say it’s doing a good job but moving in the wrong direction.

About a third said both the direction and performance of the government will change with new management; about as many said neither variable will change. Seventeen percent expect better performance, and 14 percent expect a change in direction

The insiders expect the executive branch and the House to be the bright spots in state government when new people take over; 73 percent expect the new state Senate to be the dark spot.

We collected comments along the way and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

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What do you think about the direction and performance of the state government right now?

• "The state must be doing something right because all these folks keep moving to Texas. But when I think about issues folks care about, I'm left with the impression the state could/should do more. For example, road congestion across the state is horrible. We need new roads and we need to better maintain existing roads. Why aren't we building new roads to keep up with growth? Why don't we have funding for them today? Why didn't our leaders foresee this need? State Prop 1 is a drop in the bucket, but it at least acknowledges the issue. What about public education (performance and cost), energy, water, property tax relief, etc. "

• "Government Performance: more or less is operating professionally and to the best of their abilities. As far as direction goes - they can only do what the Legislature tells them to do and that is a mixed bag."

• "Verbal contracts allowing political cronies to get millions in taxpayer dollars, toll roads everywhere but regular roads in horrible and dangerous conditions, state parks are struggling and in disrepair, average state employee salaries still at $51k (since about 1990) but top level salaries have skyrocketed, college and university tuition is out of reach for most Texans, cost of living and percentage of taxes for average Texan is huge for a 'low tax state' -That was just a start."

• "Roads, water, health care and education are just being kicked down the road. State debt has almost tripled in last 12 years, but he local guys get accused of not having their fiscal house in order."

• "Economy is good, but not enough investment of our amazing fortunes in education, infrastructure, and health (including mental health) care."

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Do you expect direction or performance to change significantly (for better or worse) when new officeholders take over in January?

• "Seems like with the influx of Tea Party members, they are likely to be disinclined to make the investments the state needs to maintain its economic prowess."

• "This is Texas, 'pardna'. Bidness will continue to get bidness done at the capitol. Officeholders sometimes get in the way."

• "Like the proverbial oil tanker, state government turns slowly. "

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The bright spots after the changeover?

• "Hopefully more of the same - great jobs, balanced budget, affordable living. Sounds good to me."

• "For the Tea Party, the bright spot is the huge number of Tea Party senators. For the pro-business folks, it's the adults in control in the House. For Democrats, it's 2018 and beyond."

• "New Senators will bring good business standards that are desperately needed."

• "The House becomes the voice of reason. HAHAHAHAH!!!!"

• "There will be big changes in philosophies and personalities. It will be interesting to see how each of the new officeholders direct the agencies and the state, but also exciting to see fresh faces and ideas emerge."

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The dark spots after the changeover?

• "This Session will be Speaker Straus' to fashion. Hang on to your wallets!"

• "It won't be long before the Senators are swinging like monkeys from the rafters like the House members. "

• "In DC style, the Senate is poised to go from fixin' to fightin'. What a waste of time and resources."

• "The AG's office will be in a leadership/legal turmoil. "

• "All of the above."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Dave Beckwith, Ann Beeson, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, John Colyandro, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, John Esparza, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Myra Leo, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Jason McElvaney, Steve Minick, Mike Moses, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Kraege Polan, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Grant Ruckel, Tyler Ruud, Jason Sabo, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Monday, Nov. 10

  • State Rep. Celia Israel, D-Austin, fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4-6 p.m.)
  • State Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Houston, and the Texas Legislative Black Caucus Golf Classic; 7401 Texas 45, Austin (9 a.m.)

Tuesday, Nov. 11

  • Veterans Day

Wednesday, Nov. 12

  • State Rep. Harold Dutton, D-Houston, fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4:30-6:30 p.m.)
  • Bexar County Commissioner Tommy Adkisson fundraiser; 5209 Pocahontas St., Bellaire (6-8 p.m.)

Thursday, Nov. 13

  • Texas Legislative Study Group fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (11:30 a.m.-1 p.m.)
  • State Rep. Eddie Rodriguez, D-Austin, fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (5-7 p.m.)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Republicans swept all statewide offices in the most recent midterm elections on Tuesday. They have won every statewide seat since 1998. The GOP also flipped a Senate seat — Wendy Davis' SD-10 — and gained three seats in the House, moving ever closer to outright supermajorities in both chambers.

Gov. Rick Perry was in court on Thursday, where his legal team was trying to disqualify the prosecutor who brought two felony charges against the governor, alleging irregularities in how the prosecutor was sworn in. Perry afterward told reporters that he had no regrets about his veto of funding for the Travis County public integrity unit, the action that led to his indictment. "I would do it again," Perry said.

Residents of Denton caused a ruckus heard nationwide when they voted on Tuesday to ban hydraulic fracturing within the city limits. The vote spurred an almost immediate lawsuit by the Texas Oil & Gas Association as well as legal action from Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson.

About a dozen voters in Bexar County were victims of a system glitch that caused GOP gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott's name to be omitted from the ballot. In its place was a misspelled version of Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst. Authorities said the votes were correctly counted despite the naming error.

Texas voters for the second year in a row approved a constitutional amendment to use oil and gas tax revenue to fund needed infrastructure. The amendment approved Tuesday would create a new funding source — estimated at $1.7 billon in year one — for road projects.

The Texas Water Development Board on Thursday approved rules on the new revolving water projects fund, meaning that entities can now begin applying for money to help expand water supplies.

Political People and their Moves

Patricia Garza of Olmito was named to the Texas Commission on Law Enforcement by Gov. Rick Perry for a term to expire Aug. 30, 2019.

T. Tolbert Chisum of Beaumont and J.B. Goodwin of Austin were named to the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs by Perry. Chisum's term expires Jan. 31, 2019, and Goodwin's term expires Jan. 31, 2015.

Jessica Corna of Austin was named the Injured Employee Public Counsel by Perry for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2015.

Fred Rangel of Huntsville was named by Perry to the Board of Pardons and Paroles for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2019.

Riley Shaw of Fort Worth was named by Perry to the Texas Juvenile Justice Board for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2017.

Perry has named six — Charlie Galvin of Austin, Sha-Chelle Manning of Fairview, David L. Miller of Lubbock, Ofer Molad of Austin, Emil Pena of Houston and Jaye Thompson of The Woodlands — to the Texas Emerging Technology Advisory Committee for terms to expire Sept. 1, 2016.

State Sen.-elect Paul Bettencourt, R-Houston, announced his staff for the legislative session. They are: Virginia "VA" Stephens, chief of staff; Stacie Bennett, general counsel; Brad Tegeler, legislative director; David Shoemaker, legislative aide; Marc Salvato, legislative aide; Jocelyn Burton, communications director; Rachel Schmidt, legislative assistant; and Wendi Lojo, district director.

Deaths: Julia Bass, 20-year employee of the Texas House who, for the past 11 years, was the chamber's journal clerk.

Quotes of the Week

They had a different objective. It was to get Wendy Davis elected. My objective is to get all our countywides elected. In a perfect world, we all should have worked better together, but that didn’t happen.

Dallas County Democratic Party Chairwoman Darlene Ewing, on lack of coordination with Battleground Texas

It's election day. There are always going to be a few problems.

Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart, acknowledging the inevitable

This is a real ass-whuppin.

Democratic West Virginia U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin summing up Election Night for his party

It doesn't make me mopey. It energizes me, because it means that this democracy's working.

President Barack Obama on the results of a midterm election where he wasn't on the ballot but his presence was felt

I didn't lose any (money) & I come out to about the same margin as everybody else.

Democratic agriculture commissioner candidate Jim Hogan to the Houston Chronicle's Lauren McGaughy

I'm able to multitask pretty good.

Gov. Rick Perry, after his Thursday pre-trial appearance on felony charges, responding to a question on whether the case will interfere with a run for the White House