The Texas Weekly Hotlist, General Election 2014

For our list of the most competitive legislative and congressional seats in the state, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest in and heat generated by a particular race, then assigning each group a nice loud color.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are in bold. Open seats are rated by the apparent margin between top candidates (closer is hotter) and the threat to the incumbent party's hold on the district. Inside each color, the races are listed by district — not by heat.

No changes this week. New campaign finance reports (for 30 days out) are being closed this week — they are due on Oct. 6 — and those might offer some clues as to who is ready for the final weeks of the races.

.

Another Week, Another Kolkhorst Endorsement

State Rep. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham, gets a hug as the House adjourns sine die on June 29, 2011.
State Rep. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham, gets a hug as the House adjourns sine die on June 29, 2011.

State Rep. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham, announced another endorsement this week in her run for SD-18. This time, the statement of support came from state Sen. Donna Campbell, R-New Braunfels.

In recent weeks, she has also earned the support of U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, and the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association.

What makes this interesting, of course, is that SD-18 currently has an occupant, Glenn Hegar. The Katy Republican is running for state comptroller, which means the seat could come open some time after the November general election.

Any decision to resign is up to Hegar. A spokesman for the secretary of state tells TW that Hegar, should he win in November, could either resign or wait until he takes the oath of office in January when his resignation from the Senate becomes automatic.

In any event, Hegar's resignation would trigger a special election, the timing of which would be determined by the governor.

Early endorsements, of course, are one way to clear out a potentially large crowd of candidates. What remains to be seen, though, is whether this clump of endorsements has any effect on Hegar's decision to leave early.

*****

A company that has made its name by using voter files to target political advertising online for Democrats announced this week a new project intended to further democratize (with a small D) the process of creating ad campaigns on the internet.

DemocraticAds.com is, according to its creator DSPolitical, being billed as a “self-serve platform (that) allows clients to launch their own voter targeted digital ad campaigns.”

The lure here is twofold. Not only does this allow candidates to create digital ad campaigns without having to spend big bucks normally associated with ad buys. It also gives candidates the flexibility to create ad campaigns from anywhere.

With the cost of entry minimal — the minimum purchase for an ad campaign with DemocraticAds.com is $500 — the potential is there for putting the tools of a modern political campaign in the hands of even the smallest of campaign operations. Either that or the amount of political spam is about to increase exponentially.

*****

The November general elections are fast approaching, and with that comes some important campaign finance filing deadlines. This Thursday was the ending date for contributions that can be counted on the 30-day out report, which is due Oct. 6.

Also, Oct. 6 is last day to register to vote in the general elections.

*****

Here’s the week in endorsements:

Republican CD-23 candidate Will Hurd: Support and Defend PAC; U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Republican lieutenant governor candidate Dan Patrick: Texas Oil and Gas Association PAC; Save America’s Free Enterprise (SAFE), the political arm of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)

Republican state comptroller candidate Glenn Hegar: BACPAC, the political arm of the Texas Association of Business

Democratic SD-10 candidate Libby Willis: TEXPAC, political arm of the Texas Medical Association

Republican HD-50 candidate Mike VanDeWalle: National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) and the Texas State Rifle Association (TSRA)

Democratic HD-94 candidate Cole Ballweg: Texas AFT; Texas State Teachers Association; United Educators Association

Republican Fifth Court of Appeals Judge Craig Stoddart: Texans for Lawsuit Reform PAC

Potential Republican SD-18 candidate Lois Kolkhorst: State Sen. Donna Campbell, R-New Braunfels

Newsreel: TribuneFest 2014 Keynote Compilation

This week in the Newsreel: a compilation of greatest hits from keynote speakers at the 2014 Texas Tribune Festival.

Inside Intelligence: About That Voter ID Lawsuit...

A federal judge in Corpus Christi heard closing arguments in the lawsuit challenging the state’s voter ID law this week and could rule any time. That case is expected to be appealed either way and could eventually land in the nation’s highest court. In the meantime, we asked our insiders in government and politics about the law.

Who benefits from it? Republicans, according to 59 percent of the insiders, while 19 percent said neither party benefits and another 16 percent said both parties do.

When asked whether the law addresses a real weakness in election security in Texas, 37 percent said it does, while 61 percent said it doesn't. 

The insiders split on whether the law prevents legitimate voters from voting, with 50 percent saying it does and 47 percent saying it does not.

Only 41 percent said the law violates minority protections in the federal Voting Rights Act, while 53 percent said it doesn’t. The insiders’ highest level of uncertainty registered on a question about what the courts will do: 40 percent said the law will be overturned, 39 percent said it will stand, and one in five said they don’t know how it will all come out.

We collected verbatim responses along the way and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

.

Who benefits politically from the state’s voter ID law?

• "No question - the populations that Democrats are most interested in mobilizing are among the least likely to have the most common forms of government-issued photo IDs."

• "Voters want to know that elections are fair. The party that champions the issue will earn the goodwill of the voters."

• "Everyone has the confidence that all election returns reflect the choices of legally registered voters."

• "The purpose is NOT to benefit a party, but to bring integrity to elections."

• "The issue benefits both. RS get to say 'We're protecting the ballot box!' Ds get to say 'They're suppressing the vote.' Good hollow rhetoric for each side."

• "Increasing public confidence in elections is beneficial to everyone."

• "In the beginning the Republicans benefit. Over time it will level out. There is no reason you shouldn't have to show an ID and there probably would have been much less push back if it had been rolled out over one or two election cycles."

.

Do you think the law addresses a real weakness in election security?

• "Without requiring photo identification, it is easier for those who wish to undermine the system to do so."

• "But it makes it more efficient and can protect against future misuse."

• "Yes, but at about the same rate as preventing 18 year-olds from buying beer."

• "How else do you prove who you are without a photo ID?"

• "Indeed. Voter fraud is a real issue. Anyone who's worked the polls or done poll watching can vouch for that."

• "Your question implies that our elections are insecure. That isn't the case, unless you wish to focus on the threat posed by digital manipulation of the ballot box."

• "The real security weakness is in mailed ballots."

• "While I doubt the problem was epidemic, I am confident there were abuses. There no doubt will continue to be abuses, but this makes it harder."

• "Rand Paul is right. Voter ID is a racist power grab by people who know their ideas will not secure an electoral majority."

.

Do you think the law prevents legitimate voters from voting?

• "Absent the occasional octogenarian featured on the local news, Texans have grown used to having to provide positive ID in any number of settings (pharmacies, airports, payday lenders...), what's one more?"

• "We don't know yet. But it's hard to imagine good faith reasons why Republicans in the Texas legislature have opposed proposals like allowing college IDs as acceptable forms of voter ID, and even printing a voter's picture on their voter registration card."

• "Most of the 'legitimate' voters are sitting at home watching American Idol."

• "I think that people who are registered to vote, likely have ID, and it is unlikely that they feel intimidated by the process of having to show their ID. You must show ID to cash a check, use a credit card, catch a flight, receive healthcare at a doctors office/hospital/clinic, have healthcare paid for by insurance (private insurance and Medicaid). I think that it is a common part of our everyday lives."

• "Yes. I know republicans don't want to believe it but there actually are some people who DO NOT have a photo id! And yes, they live, work and conduct business without a photo id - they do not fly, they have had an account at the same bank for DECADES and they are well known in their communities."

• "By intimidation--not by actual content of law"

.

Do you think the law violates minority protections in the federal Voting Rights Act?

• "Unless it is coupled with an effort to prevent minorities from obtaining IDs available to all Texans, how can it?"

• "Hello, minorities from Dec. 31, 1999 are calling and want you to know the 21st century has started."

• "Race is NOT the issue. Voter integrity is and it benefits everyone."

• "Well of COURSE it does, that was the intention of the law! It was a 'legal' way to suppress minority voting!"

• "The law upholds minority protections by ensuring their vote is not diluted by the vote of those who are not eligible to vote."

• "No, minorities and non-minorities alike have to show their ID."

.

Do you think the federal courts will overturn the law?

• "It won't be impossible to find a crack-pot district court judge to overturn it in the first instance, but the law will ultimately stand."

• "I learned long ago to not predict an outcome with a federal court."

• "This is a loser for the left and the media. 85% of Texans support photo ID."

• "One thing we all have to acknowledge is that the majority party is fairly sloppy when writing these laws. Almost everything they do gets overturned."

• "Maybe the district court will throw it out. Then the 5th Circuit will reverse. And the Supremes will go 5-4. One way or the other."

• "This particular court may try to overturn it. Venue shopping trip may have been successful."

• "Eventually, yes."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Victor Alcorta, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Jon Fisher, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Michael Grimes, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Sandy Kress, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Kathy Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Keir Murray, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Bill Pewitt, Jerry Philips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Karen Reagan, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Jeff Rotkoff, Tyler Ruud, Jason Sabo, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Ben Sebree, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Woody Widrow, Christopher Williston, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Friday, Sept. 26

  • Voices for Children of San Antonio 16th Congress on Children; 285 Oblate Dr., San Antonio (7:30 a.m.-4 p.m.)

Saturday, Sept. 27

  • Federico Villalba historical marker celebration with state Reps. Jason Villalba, R-Dallas, and Alfonso "Poncho" Nevárez, D-Eagle Pass; FM 170 & Terlingua Ghost Town Road, Terlingua (5 p.m.)

Monday, Sept. 29

  • Republican attorney general candidate Ken Paxton fundraiser with special guest Ted Cruz; 210 East Stacy Road, Allen (5:30 p.m.)

Tuesday, Sept. 30

  • Charles Perry SD-28 swearing-in ceremony; McKenzie-Merket Alumni Center, 17th St., Lubbock (11 a.m.)
  • Demographic Change and the Digital Divide panel discussion; 2315 Red River St., Austin (12 p.m.)
  • State Rep. Marisa Márquez, D-El Paso, fundraiser; 504 E. Fifth St., Austin (5:30-7 p.m.)

Wednesday, Oct. 1

  • No Land, No Water: Tools & Strategies for Conserving Land to Protect Water Resources; 1100 Congress Ave., Austin (10 a.m.-2 p.m.)
  • Texas HDCC and HDCC Incumbent Protection Fund fundraiser; 3 Niles Rd., Austin (5:30-7:30 p.m.)
  • State Rep. J.M. Lozano, R-Kingsville, fundraiser; 801 E. Broadway Avenue, Portland (6 p.m.)

Thursday, Oct. 2

  • A Conversation With Kathie Glass, 2014 Libertarian Nominee for Governor; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (8-9 a.m.)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

A damning state audit released Thursday found the Texas Enterprise Fund — an economic incentive program long championed by Gov. Rick Perry — was riddled with weak oversight policies. One finding was that $170 million was awarded to recipients that never formally applied for the funds.

Perry's legal team asked for the governor to be excused from all future non-evidentiary hearings in advance of his trial on felony charges related to his veto of funding for the Public Integrity Unit. An Oct. 13 hearing conflicts with a Perry speaking engagement the next day in England. The special prosecutor in the case, Michael McCrum, opposed the request.

The head of the Public Integrity Unit confirmed that an investigation of GOP attorney general nominee Ken Paxton would not proceed until after the November elections. The complaint filed against Paxton keys off his being disciplined by the Texas State Securities Board for failing to register as a solicitor for a financial services firm.

Political People and their Moves

Alferma Giles of Sugar Land and Manda Hall of Austin were appointed by Gov. Rick Perry to the Early Childhood Intervention Advisory Committee. Giles' term expires Feb. 1, 2017, and Hall's term expires Feb. 1, 2015.

Stan Cromartie of League City and Lamont Meaux of Stowell were reappointed by Perry to the Gulf Coast Waste Disposal Authority Board of Directors for terms to expire Aug. 31, 2016.

Texas AFL-CIO President Becky Moeller will not seek re-election. She will have served eight years at the helm of the organization when her current term concludes in July 2015.

Jim Grace has hired on with the government law and policy practice at Greenberg Traurig, LLP. He previously headed the Texas government relations practice at Baker Botts LLP. He was also previously chairman of the Greater Houston Partnership’s Government Relations Advisory Committee.

Disclosure: Greenberg Traurig, LLP was in 2010 a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Quotes of the Week

And so we should not be aligned with such people — they’re just, they’re just literally lying.

Google Chairman Eric Schmidt on his decision to cut ties with the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), citing that group's stances on climate change

I just wanted to see what it would do, and I overdid it, naturally, and I was laying there, and it felt like the flesh was falling off my bones.

Willie Nelson, letting New York Times' columnist Maureen Dowd know she wasn't alone in having a misadventure with pot-laced edibles

I’m a Democrat, and I will die as a Democrat.

U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, who apparenly is not switching parties. Good to know.

They call us the three amigos.

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, on his siding with liberal colleagues Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., against arming and training Syrian rebels to fight ISIS

It didn’t turn out so well. What people want is for the government to function and not to throw temper tantrums and say we’re not going to play ball.

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, on the legislative tactics in his own party on defunding the Affordable Care Act that led to the federal government shutdown