For our list of the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' are indicated by an (i). An asterisk (*) indicates an open seat where the incumbent either didn't run or lost in the first round of voting; those are rated by the apparent competitiveness of top candidates (closer = hotter). This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust as the May 27 runoffs approach. Let us know what you think.

Changes this week: Our starting list of the congressional and legislative runoffs.

The Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call this week published a handy compendium of Texas GOP politicians thinking about the next election (or two) and where they might choose to run.

The in-depth piece by Abby Livingston focuses at the top on a U.S. Senate seat that could come open should Ted Cruz decide to cut short his legislating career. Initial speculation there, she wrote, is that George P. Bush, recently nominated for land commissioner, would be the front-runner. Also in the mix would be lite guv candidate Dan Patrick, a trio of congressmen — Michael McCaul, Jeb Hensarling and Louie Gohmert — as well as some current candidates for statewide office — Ken Paxton and Glenn Hegar.

Illuminating is this observation of Patrick: "Beyond Bush, who is currently running for state land commissioner, state Sen. Dan Patrick, a lieutenant governor candidate, is expected to be a dominating force in Texas politics. He could run for Senate someday, but some operatives envision him as the Republican equivalent of legendary Democratic Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock."

Also of note is Livingston's reporting that national Republicans have their eye on Veronica Edwards as a future candidate for the swing CD-23. Edwards is the founder and CEO of InGenesis, a medical staffing business. Focus on her would signal Republicans are looking for another Hispanic candidate (and a woman, to boot) to run in a district drawn to be a minority opportunity district.

Sure to provoke discussion, too, is the roundup of names at the state legislative level who are being bandied about for congressional runs. Those include James White, Van Taylor, Scott Turner, Konni Burton, Matt Krause, Jason Villalba, Charles Perry, Lyle Larson, Jason Isaac, Larry Gonzales, Tony Dale, Mike Schofield and Matt Rinaldi.

If this list feels Republican heavy, no need to worry, because Roll Call promises a similar roundup soon on Texas Democrats.

The Corpus Christi federal judge hearing the challenge to Texas' voter ID law is weighing whether to compel the state to hand over documents that would show what lawmakers were talking about while passing the legislation in 2011.

The documents are being sought by the U.S. Department of Justice as well as the Hispanic and African-American plaintiffs groups challenging the law. They said the documents are needed to establish legislators' motivations in passing the law. That would be key to finding a violation under the Voting Rights Act. The state is fighting the motion, asserting that subpoenas are needed for the lawmakers. Also, the state says there are flaws in the search method proposed by the DOJ.

The next status conference in the court challenge is set for March 24.

Another current court challenge of note, Empower Texans' suit in federal court to shut down an investigation by the Texas Ethics Commission, also had a significant development. Lobbyist Steve Bresnen — who helped filed those complaints against the conservative advocacy group — asked to intervene in the legal action.

He said that he and other lobbyists had an interest in how the suit is decided and that the Ethics Commission wouldn't represent his interests in the matter. Empower Texans, as might be expected, filed paperwork to deny Bresnen's request. The Ethics Commission's formal hearing on the complaints filed against Empower Texans and its president, Michael Quinn Sullivan, is set for April 3.

These ethics complaints are just one half of the current battle being waged by Bresnen and Empower Texans. The Ethics Commission is also considering a rule that would accomplish what the Legislature tried to do last session but was denied via a gubernatorial veto.

Bresnen put up for consideration a proposed rule that would presume contributions made to a group spending money on campaigns are campaign contributions. The intent is to get 501(c)(4) groups, like Empower Texans on the right or the Texas Organizing Project on the left, to disclose big-dollar donors who are giving money to those groups for political activities. Empower Texans' attorney, Joe Nixon, criticized the language at a Feb. 13 meeting of the Ethics Commission. He said the action was intended to force a nonprofit group to disclose its donor lists "in order to shut it down."

Although this so-called dark money rule is a separate matter from the ethics complaints filed against Empower Texans, it has figured into the back-and-forth between the two sides. Empower Texans makes mention of the proposed rule in its filing. Bresnen brought up dark money as well in his motion to intervene.

This week in the Newsreel: The 2014 primary runoffs are more than two months away. Will the remaining contests get dirty? And whom will the primary election losers throw their support behind? 

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/1i8h8wi

Five congressional and state Senate primary races will be settled in the May 27 runoffs and we asked our insiders to predict the winners in those contests. Three of those pairings recall the phrase, “Often wrong, but never in doubt.” The insiders overwhelming chose Sen. Robert Deuell, R-Greenville, in the SD-2 runoff and U.S. Rep. Ralph Hall, R-Rockwall, in his May contest in a district that overlaps Deuell’s. Nearby, in Tarrant County, 61 percent think Konni Burton will prevail in the Republican primary runoff for Wendy Davis’ seat in the Texas Senate.

More insiders than not think that Francisco “Quico” Canseco will win the CD-23 Republican primary against Will Hurd, but Canseco hasn’t convinced a majority. And in the CD-36 race to succeed U.S. Rep. Steve Stockman, R-Friendswood, 39 percent picked Brian Babin, 29 percent picked Ben Streusand, and 33 percent said they don’t know how that will come out.

The full set of comments from insiders is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Who will win the CD-4 GOP congressional runoff?

• "Why does a 90-year-old need to cling to a Congressional seat?"

• "Ralph Hall's constituents LOVE him. They'll turn out again to keep him in office."

• "Hall will win but the margin will surprise many."

• "Hard to turn your back on an old war horse knowing this will be his last term"

• "Last time around the barn is a winner for the old warhorse"

Who will win the CD-23 GOP congressional runoff?

• "They gave Quico a chance, it won't happen again."

• "Turnout advantage skews towards Hurd"

• "Quico needs to go back home"

• "Last time around Hurd had an 11 point lead heading into the runoff and he couldn't capitalized. He has a strong Aggie network in the district, but if they stay home, it'll be Canseco vs. Gallego II."

Who will win the CD-36 GOP congressional runoff?

• "Babin nearly captured this district in 1996. He has deep roots there."

• "Local ties beats money advantage"

• "Finally, Ben gets a win"

• "Orange County will be the deciding factor in this race and the folks from there relate more to Babin."

Who will win the SD-2 GOP congressional runoff?

• "Hall's grassroots are motivated and will turn out in the run-off. Deuell defeated himself with a liberal voting record."

• "Tea party streak continues"

• "Deuell has bigger numbers, but it will be close. He may have to explain why he should come back when so many who are more conservative than he will not be."

• "You have to go with the incumbent when you have no clue what you're talking about."

Who will win the SD-10 GOP congressional runoff?

• "Konni is one of the few beneficiaries of an ACTUAL Ted Cruz endorsement."

• "Ted Cruz wins this race"

• "Enthusiasm gap gives advantage to the tea partiers in the runoffs."

• "Aren't we trying hard to make sure no one who has served before comes back?"

• "Here comes the Cruz magic wand again."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Kathy Hutto, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Dale Laine, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Bill Lauderback, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Richard Levy, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Richard Pineda, Allen Place, Kraege Polan, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Karen Reagan, David Reynolds, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Bradford Shields, Nancy Sims, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Wednesday, March 19

• Rally for state Senate candidate Konni Burton, featuring U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz; Stockyards Station, Fort Worth (6 p.m.)

Thursday, March 20

• TribLive with Kinky Friedman, candidate for agriculture commissioner; Austin Club, Austin (8 a.m.)
• Fundraiser for Texas House Democratic Campaign Committee and House Democratic Campaign Committee Incumbent Protection Fund; 2005 Lakeshore Drive, Austin (5:30-7:30 p.m.)
  

Harvey Hilderbran withdrew from the May 27 GOP runoff election for comptroller, leaving Glenn Hegar, who won 49.99 percent of the vote, his party's nominee for the statewide office. Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst chose not to withdraw from the GOP lite guv runoff contest against Dan Patrick despite his disappointing second-place finish and calls from other Republicans to give up the contest.

The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Texas gubernatorial race showed GOP nominee Greg Abbott with a 12-point lead among likely voters over Democratic nominee Wendy Davis. A University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll of registered voters last month found Abbott with an 11-point advantage over Davis. Meanwhile, the two exchanged barbs on the campaign trail this week over ethics and fair pay for women.

The University of Texas System contracted with a national executive search firm, Wheless Partners, to help with the search for a new chancellor. UT-Austin President Bill Powers indicated he would be okay with Kyle Janek as chancellor should he be chosen by the board of regents. It's been widely reported that Janek, currently the HHS executive commissioner, is Gov. Rick Perry's favored candidate to replace Francisco Cigarroa, who is stepping down to resume his surgical career.

A collection of business trade groups launched the Main Street Growth & Opportunity Coalition, which is aimed at pushing for federal action on tax reform and immigration reform. Leaders of the effort in Texas include Bill Hammond of the Texas Association of Business and Tony Bennett of the Texas Association of Manufacturers.

After more than two decades as the president of the University of Texas at Brownsville, Juliet García decided not to apply for the presidency of the institution that her school will soon become: the University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, the University of Texas at Austin and the Texas Association of Business were corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. (See the full list of Tribune donors below $1,000 here.) 

Mary Ann Williamson of Weatherford was named by Gov. Rick Perry to the Texas Lottery Commission for a term to expire Feb. 1, 2017. Williamson, the widow of Perry friend and ally Ric Williamson, was most recently an appointee to the Texas Water Development Board, from which she resigned in January. She returns to the Lottery Commission, where she served as chairwoman for a time.

Jake Ellzey of Midlothian was named by Perry to the Texas Veterans Commission for a term to expire Dec. 31, 2017. Ellzey most recently was a candidate for the GOP nomination in HD-10. He was the only candidate for the House to receive Perry's endorsement.

Sada Cumber of Sugar Land was named by Perry to the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board for a term to expire Aug. 31, 2015.

Albert Betts takes over as executive director of the Insurance Council of Texas (ICT) on April 1. He replaces Rick Gentry, who is retiring after 17 years as the association’s manager. Betts has been ICT general counsel since 2009. He also was a partner in the Austin office of Thompson Coe Cousins & Irons, LLP and was before that Texas' first commissioner of workers’ compensation.

The field is now set for the May 10 special election in SD-4 to fill the seat left empty when Tommy Williams resigned last October. The four-man field is:

•    State Rep. Brandon Creighton, R-Conroe

•    State Rep. Steve Toth, R-The Woodlands

•    Michael Galloway, who represented SD-4 from 1995-99 and was a candidate for the seat in 2002 and 2012

•    Gordy Bunch, member of The Woodlands Township board of directors

Early voting begins April 28.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, the Insurance Council of Texas was a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune in 2011. (See the full list of Tribune donors below $1,000 here.)