Kay Bailey Hutchison rebounded in the most recent poll from Rasmussen Reports, but one of Gov. Rick Perry's hottest arguments rests on the rhetoric of "I'm from Austin; she's from Washington." And while the latest polling has the two gubernatorial candidates locked in a tight race, it's a contest that initially — almost a year ago — was polling strongly in Hutchison's favor.

Something happened.

Pollsters say part of it was the Washington thing. Part of it is a partisanship thing. And if you listen to Democratic pollsters, the political market will change as soon as the economy turns and (they say with hope) Congress has approved legislation remaking the health care system. They could be whistling past graveyards, too: While the race for Guv is getting most of the attention, other races — for Congress, for potential statewide races like U.S. Senate, and even statehouse — could be pulled into the whirlpool, too.

"People out of Washington are not having a lot of success right now," says Mike Baselice, a pollster who counts Perry among his clients. Democratic incumbents in tough districts, like U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards of Waco, could have particular things to worry about. President Barack Obama's numbers have slipped. And House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has toxic popularity numbers in Texas. By Baselice's reckoning, 21 percent of Texans like her and 50 percent don't. She does for Republican fundraising what Tom DeLay used to do for the Democrats.

Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin says "there's a pretty big disconnect between Washington and Texas right now," but thinks it could pass if the economy turns and the health care fight ends. "Any Republican is going to try to nationalize the election," he says. "Democrats are going to try to talk about local issues."

Republican pollster Bryan Eppstein sees more bogies in partisanship and leadership than in Washington v. Texas squabbles. (Eppstein did some work early in the cycle for Hutchison but isn't attached to a gubernatorial candidate at this point.)

He's got an eye on voters who chose Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn in the last gubernatorial election, both of whom ran as independents. Those two candidates got just more than 30 percent of the votes. And he's looking at the huge number of registered voters who didn't vote last year — roughly 5.5 million people.

Those two groups are big, and could be pulled into the anger against partisanship and bailouts and health care and so on. They're not with the parties, and they'll be shopping for candidates.

The first group — the Friedman/Strayhorn bunch — won't be a factor in the March primaries, he says. They're not Party animals.

"The benefit of this outrage is to the Republican running in November, unless there is an independent running," he says. "Then it would go to the independent."

For Eppstein, that's not an anti-Washington effect (though he notes the remarkable distaste for Congress at the moment), but an anti-partisan effect. His takeaway is that the most partisan candidates are in the most trouble at the moment. And he's talking about 1992, when a group of voters angry with the political parties united behind Ross Perot: "When two-thirds of the registered voters are not voting (in governor's races), what does that mean?"

What Lawless Hordes?

—Brandi Grissom, The Texas Tribune

Border officials say their communities aren't being overrun with "lawless hordes" of Mexican drug runners and people smugglers, and they said Gov. Rick Perry is painting an inaccurate scary picture of their home.

Last week, Perry announced he was sending teams of Texas Rangers and Texas National Guard troops to protect border landowners from extortion and threats from violent criminal organizations and to prevent spillover violence from Mexico.

The Texas Border Coalition, a group of elected officials and business leaders, wrote Perry a letter[1] taking issue with the impression they say he created — that the border is overrun with criminals and violence.

"While each of our communities has their own unique issues, being overwhelmed by criminal elements from Mexico is not one of them," wrote Chad Foster, coalition chairman and Eagle Pass mayor.

Crime is down in the region, Foster wrote, and apprehensions of illegal immigrants are declining, too.

Foster urged the governor to ensure that the Rangers and National Guard troops coordinate with law enforcement already in the region.

Some law enforcement officials have also expressed skepticism about the need for Rangers and National Guard troops. Juarez, the most violent spot in the ongoing Mexican drug war, is across the Rio Grande from El Paso. But local police on the U.S. side told the El Paso Times[2] that there has been no escalation in crime.

"Unfortunately, we have always had crimes related to that, but they are very rare," El Paso police spokesman Javier Sambrano told the Times.

Perry spokeswoman Katherine Cesinger said state-led border security efforts that use local, state and federal officers, like Operation Border Star, are the reason for crime reductions on the border.

The so-called Ranger recon teams, she said, would continue that model.

"The mission of the Ranger Recon Teams is a specific response to a specific threat in remote areas along the border where criminals are exploiting cracks in the seams," Cesinger said via e-mail, "and we will continue to work with local law enforcement through Operation Border Star to ensure the safety of these communities."
bgrissom@texastribune.org[3]

Both Bases Covered

—Brandi Grissom, The Texas Tribune

Gov. Rick Perry and former New York Mayor and GOP presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani traveled the state this week touting anti-gang legislation and state border security efforts.

The big-name tour started in Austin and San Antonio, moved through Houston and ended with a dinner fundraiser reception in Dallas for Perry, said campaign spokesman Mark Miner.

The governor supported Giuliani during his bid for the White House last year.

But could their continuing lovefest create some tension back at the office for Giuliani?

Pat Oxford, chairman of Houston law firm Bracewell and Giuliani, is a major supporter of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. He in the past has been her finance chairman, and this year has given the senator about $5,000 for her bid to unseat Perry in 2010.

Oxford said this afternoon, though, that Giuliani is just returning the favor. Giuliani, he said, is a loyal guy.

"I understand fully why he is helping Rick, just like Governor Perry helped him," Oxford said.
bgrissom@texastribune.org[4]

Farabee and Flores: All Done, Thanks

Rep. David Farabee, D-Wichita Falls, told his hometown paper[5] that he won't seek reelection.

Farabee is in one of the most Republican districts represented by a Democrat, and holding onto the seat will be tough for his party. It's got a Texas Weekly Index of 32.6 — the average margin by which statewide Republican candidates beat statewide Democratic candidates over the last two election cycles in that district.

Wichita Falls Mayor Lanham Lyne announced he will run — as a Republican — for that HD-69 seat. He was elected in 2005 and reelected twice. In real life, he's the president of Lyne Energy Corp. and Lyne Energy Partners.

Pols in both parties question whether any Democrat who's not named Farabee can hold the seat. Democrats hoping to take over the Legislature's lower chamber will now have to win his seat and two more to overtake Republicans in the narrowly divided Texas House.

After the governor's race and a possible special election for U.S. Senate, the House is the main battleground on the 2010 ballot.

• Rep. Ismael "Kino" Flores, D-Palmview, won't run for reelection. Flores, who faces criminal indictments on several ethics charges[6] in Travis County, has been in the Legislature since 1997. He succeeded his wife's cousin — Sergio Muñoz — and one of the contenders for his job, if he leaves, is Sergio Muñoz Jr. Another is Sandra Rodriguez, who unsuccessfully challenged Flores in last year's Democratic primary.

No Clear Favorite

—Matt Stiles, The Texas Tribune

The sniping between Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the GOP gubernatorial primary contest hasn't yet produced a clear frontrunner, according to the newest Rasmussen poll of GOP primary voters[7].

The telephone survey, conducted Wednesday by Rasmussen Reports, showed challenger Hutchison slightly ahead of incumbent Perry, 40 percent to 38 percent. The poll's margin of error is +/- 3.5 percent.

The poll also found one in five of those likely Republican primary voters hadn't yet settled on a candidate to support in the March election.

"With the two running so closely and both being so well-known in the state, the key to the contest ultimately may prove to be how their supporters turnout for the primary vote," according to the polling firm, which surveyed 790 people it classified as "likely" Republican primary voters.

Three percent of those surveyed said they supported Debra Medina, a recent entrant into the GOP primary race.

The poll is positive news for Hutchison's campaign, especially given that Perry held a 10-point advantage in the same survey in mid-July, but her staff didn't trumpet the results.

"We're just letting the poll speak for itself," said spokesman Joe Pounder.

The results also contradicted scuttlebutt among some political observers who speculated that Perry enjoyed broader support than he had earlier this summer, when a University of Texas poll showed him ahead by 12 percentage points. Rasmussen had Perry in the lead by 10 percentage points in July and up by four points in a May poll.

Perry's campaign spokesman, Mark Miner, downplayed the results while noting that Perry fared better among conservative respondents. Hutchison leads among moderates and liberals, according to the poll.

"We're very pleased with where we are in the campaign," Miner said. "The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day."

Both candidates are viewed favorable by slightly more than 70 percent of the voters surveyed, the poll found. Roughly the same number approve of the job Perry is doing as governor.
mstiles@texastribune.org[8]

Running Shoes

State Rep. Dan Gattis, R-Georgetown, reannounced that he's in the race for Texas Senate in SD-5, now that Republican Steve Ogden has opted out of a reelection bid.

Gattis said earlier this year that he'd run if Ogden stepped down. And now the contest to succeed Gattis in HD-20 — all of it conditioned on Ogden retiring and Gattis attempting to move up — can proceed. Gattis has a website[9] up and running. He's actually the second candidate to declare — Republican Ben Bius of Huntsville jumped in a week ago (while Ogden's political shoes were still warm). And another — Dr. Sam Harrison of Bryan — is looking.

The Senate district includes 14 counties, with most of the population in Williamson (38 percent) and Brazos (23 percent) counties. That's population — voting is different. In Ogden's last run in 2006, 17 percent of the vote came from Brazos County — his home turf. Williamson County contributed 47 percent of the total that year. Gattis has endorsements from the GOP chairs in nine of those counties. He's running from a Williamson County base and has a legal cheat on name recognition: The county judge is his father, Dan Gattis Sr.

Put Dr. Charles Schwertner, a Williamson County Republican, on the list of folks looking at Dan Gattis' spot in the Texas House. Schwertner is an orthopedist who's been involved in the county medical society there, and he's from an old family, as you'll note if you look at a map of the area and find the tiny town called Schwertner. Other possible candidates in HD-20 include Milton Rister, who is, as of this week, officially in the contest. He's a former GOP political consultant, executive director of the Texas GOP, and former head of the Texas Legislative Council. Behind Door Number Three is Steven Thomas, who's on the Cedar Park City Council. (This is all semi-speculative on the part of the candidates. They have to file with the state if they're raising money and such, but the actual filing for the ballot doesn't start until the first week of December and doesn't end until the first week of January; that's when you'll see the real candidate lists after all of the tire-kicking going on right now.

• Insert David Andrews into the HD-85 race against Rep. Joe Heflin, D-Crosbyton. Andrews, an accountant, is chairman of the Jones County GOP.

• Zach Brady, a Republican who said earlier this year he was considering a challenge against Rep. Delwin Jones, R-Lubbock, isn't considering that any more. He's decided to run. Brady is a former Senate staffer (to Lubbock's Robert Duncan) who now practices law.

• The list of folks who'll run again in 2010 now includes Reps. Doug Miller, R-New Braunfels, Rene Oliveira, D-Brownsville, John Otto, R-Dayton, Tryon Lewis, R-Odessa, and Chente Quintanilla, D-Tornillo.

• Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hank Gilbert starts a 13-city tour of the state next week to launch his campaign.

Present But Not Accounted For

—Abby Rapoport, The Texas Tribune


The State Auditor says the Texas Education Agency’s process for monitoring average daily attendance in public schools needs a few adjustments.

Most disturbing was the report’s discovery of 62 improper user accounts, 46 of which should have been deactivated. TEA is investigating the accounts, which could potentially access students' social security numbers and test scores. In its response, the agency asserted it would work with its private contractor — IBM — to close the security gaps.

Given the importance of the daily average attendance — the key component for determining school funding — discrepancies in measurement could have spelled a major mis-allotment in funds. None was found; the report was largely positive in terms of how the agency made adjustments and simply suggested better tracking and prompter reporting.

In its own audit attempts, TEA exams its database for those districts with the most errors, and it then exams every error within the district. Because of this, larger school districts are much more likely to get audited, and of the 227 school districts audited over the last four years, 111 had been audited twice or more, leaving approximately 1,090 completely unexamined.

State auditors want TEA to look at more school districts to emphasize statewide coverage, and to encourage districts to resolve some of the errors on their own.

Rita Chase, director of financial audits, said TEA has already begun sampling a wider array of districts, and many of the recommendations in the report were in the process of being implemented already.
rarapoport@texastribune.org[10]

The Revolution Will Be Televised

—Abby Rapoport, The Texas Tribune

It may not be Mad Men, but the State Board on Education began broadcasting its meetings online on Wednesday.

Audio files of SBOE meetings are already available, but Debbie Ratcliffe, TEA's communications director, said video will make it "easier to tell who's actually talking."

The audio broadcasts already have hundreds of listeners, and TEA currently has capacity for a thousand viewers. "I'm not sure that the numbers will be too different [for video]," Ratcliffe said.

The videos will stream from TexasAdmin.com[11], which also streams meetings for other agencies. TEA will link to live streams, and the files will remain online for another six months, and archived offline for another five years after that.

The change comes as a result of Austin Rep. Donna Howard's HB 772, which requires live and archived videos of the meetings be available to the public.

rarapoport@texastribune.org[12]

Their Coffee Had Better Be Good...

The Texas Public Policy Foundation is buying a Congress Avenue building, starting a $5 million capital campaign and naming the project after the late Michael Stevens of Houston.

The very local part (which was a surprise to the folks behind the counter this morning): It's the building where the Little City coffee shop — a popular hangout for political, lobby and media types — is located. That business is apparently looking for a new spot.

Political People and Their Moves

The U.S. Senate confirmed former Texas legislator Juan Garcia as assistant Secretary of the Navy for manpower and reserve affairs. The Corpus Christi Democrat lost a reelection bid in 2008 but won a presidential appointment this year.

Max Westbrook moves to the state comptroller's office, where he'll be the new chief of the criminal investigation division (mostly tax cases), from the Austin Police Department, where he was a lieutenant and where he worked on organized crime cases for five years.

ERCOT President and CEO Bob Kahn will leave that job in November after two years with that energy agency. The board there is still deciding whether to put an interim in place and how to handle the search for a replacement.

Public Citizen's Tom "Smitty" Smith won an award from the Heinz Foundation for being "one of the most effective energy advocates in Texas." That comes with a $100,000 prize.

Blaine Brunson will be the new chief of staff to Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, and Julia Rathgeber will be deputy chief of staff. Dewhurst announced the promotions, filling in the spot left when Rob Johnson left to work on Gov. Rick Perry's campaign earlier this summer. Both of the newly titled have been on the Lite Guv's staff: Brunson as budget director, Rathgeber as policy director.

Coming up: Karl Rove is the headliner at a Texas Association of Health Plans even next month in Bastrop, talking about "the politics of health care reform."

Former lawmaker Kyle Janek, R-Houston, says he and the Texas Society of Anesthesiologists (he's one of them) will do CPR and defibrillator courses at the Capitol next spring. They were prompted, in part, by a close call last session when Rep. Edmund Kuempel, R-Seguin, had a heart attack in an elevator and was revived by Rep. John Zerwas, R-Houston, who's a doctor.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed:

• Raymond "Ray" Wheless to the 266th District Court. Wheless is currently the judge of Collin County Court at Law No. 4.

• Leslie "Les" Hatch of Lubbock to the 237th District Court. He's an attorney with Mayfield, Crutcher and Sharpee.

Mark Updegrove is the new head of the LBJ Presidential Library at the University of Texas. The author and presidential scholar will succeed Betty Sue Flowers, who resigned in May.

Quotes of the Week

Rep. David Farabee, D-Wichita Falls, telling the Wichita Falls Times Record News why he won't seek a seventh term: "It was a goal of mine for some time to serve 12 years. When we had a change of leadership in the House, I considered an additional term. Then I revisited my plans and decided to stick with my original life goals."

Sen. Steve Ogden, R-Bryan, who won't seek reelection and who is expressing some interest in federal matters: "Just as an aside, do you have any idea how long one trillion seconds is? It's about 32,000 years... that's the size of the federal deficit."

U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, talking about her bid for governor on Fox Radio: "Now, honestly, I'm trying to save the Republican Party in Texas. I'm trying to keep it conservative and open it up."

Rep. Joe Heflin, D-Crosbyton, telling the Abilene Reporter-News why voters elected and reelected him in what's supposed to be Republican territory: "Apparently, they think I know what I'm doing."

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Texas Weekly: Volume 26, Issue 35, 21 September 2009. Ross Ramsey, Editor. Copyright 2009 by Printing Production Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission from the publisher is prohibited. One-year online subscription: $250. For information about your subscription, call (512) 302-5703 or email biz@texasweekly.com[13]. For news, email ramsey@texasweekly.com[14], or call (512) 288-6598.

Their mirrors might say otherwise, but Republican rivals Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison didn't look too pretty in recently released videos and book excerpts. Texas House races catch the new media's attention this week, as do statewide Democrats and an incarcerated blogger. Wrapping it up is information about the state school board, the border wall, a town hall meeting and other topics.

* * * * *

Gotcha Guv

Perry appears to be making light of the economic recession in a video[15] taken at a Houston Chamber of Commerce event and posted on the Internet. "We're in one?" the governor asks, to laughter.

"This kind of arrogance[16] will lose the election for Perry," says Hutchison supporter Pondering Penguin. The incident even got Texas Fred, who's a Perry guy, to reminiscing about Claytie Williams[17]. The Houston Chronicle's Texas Politics thinks Perry was joking[18].

"It could cost him the race[19]," BurkaBlog says. In the comments section to that post, Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, supports his buddy Perry, saying the Guv followed up the remark with an assertion that yes, indeed, there are Texans suffering. Patrick also describes a lone shadowy figure that he fingers as the likely culprit with the camera. Later, Burka considers the possibility that Hutchison operatives shot and edited[20] the tape in order to produce the macaca-like moment. (Sidenote: We're not licensed private investigators, but the Perry video is the first one[21] ever posted by that particular YouTube user, who hadn't even watched another YouTube video before, according to the profile page.)

Speaking of bad publicity, the Dallas Morning News' Trail Blazers got their mitts on the latest tell-all book by a former George W. Bush staffer. Teasers include an unflattering anecdote about Hutchison and her "purse boys"[22] and a declaration that top White House advisors "were completely oblivious" to health care costs[23], while they got treatment from the President's doctors for free.

A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Hutchison back in a virtual tie with Perry, after being up and down by a dozen or more points at various times. (More on the poll from us here[24].) The Austin Chronicle's Newsdesk says Perry's "little mid-Summer bump[25]" is over. Texas Politics doesn't think it's fair[26] that respondents were asked about Perry's job performance but not Hutchison's. And the Austin American-Statesman's First Reading breaks the results down by age and income[27].

Burka pinpoints the following factors[28] for Hutchison's leap: "Overconfidence and misjudgments in the Perry camp"; "Overestimation of Perry's appeal"; "Too much talk about Washington, not enough about Texas"; "Poor political judgment leading to negative press coverage"; and, "Repeating the Claytie Williams mistake" (i.e., not shaking Ann Richards' hand, making light of rape, etc., etc., etc.).

Texas Politics relays a rumor that Hutchison will resign on New Year's[29] (a KBH staffer says that ain't so). Meanwhile, Trail Blazers follows Perry around Washington, here[30], here[31], here[32], here[33] and here[34]. And here[35]'s more from the Houston Chronicle's Texas on the Potomac.

The Hutchison campaign is passing around a photo linking Perry to ACORN, which the Huffington Post dug up last October from a 2005 ACORN newsletter[36], according to Trail Blazers.

Headline of the Week award goes to a couple of bloggers for synchronized titles. Prof13 writes about "The Rick and Rudy Show[37]," saying it was a good move on Perry's part to trot out former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Elsewhere, Texas Observer's Purple Texas tunes into "The Rick and Kay Show[38]," which they feel, like Jeopardy!, revolves around trivia.

And after watching a KXAN-TV news report on the Perry-Giuliani appearance, In the Pink asks what we consider a very astute question[39]: "Why is Rick Perry rubbing that old guy's head?" (See it for yourself 12 seconds into the clip.)

* * * * *

The Replacements

A Capitol Blog has favorable impressions[40] of both Democrats vying to succeed retiring Rep. Kino Flores, D-Palmview. Hearing about Flores' announcement, the Texas Observer's La Linea quips, "We'll miss the gold jewelry and the bullying[41] on the House floor (not!)." (Apparently their WABAC[42] machine was set to the year 1992[43].) And here[44]'s Burka's take on the Flores situation.

Off the Kuff doesn't particular like Democrats' chances in the "pretty red[45]" House District 69, which sitting Rep. David Farabee, D-Wichita Falls, is vacating. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Burnt Orange Report is more optimistic[46]. Greg's Opinion says, "But it definitely puts us [Dems] one down[47] in an already tough election cycle."

Meanwhile, a couple of bloggers look at the situation in HD-52, currently held by freshman Rep. Diana Maldonado, D-Round Rock. Click on the blog's names for takes from Eye on Williamson[48] and Newsdesk[49], respectively. And Blue Dot Blues surveys several nascent races, predicting that Republicans are poised to give Democrats all they can handle[50] for control of the House.

* * * * *

Democratic Drought Busters?

Texas Politics corners Houston Mayor (and U.S. Senate hopeful) Bill White and asks if there's any chance he would switch[51] to the governor's race. He answers, "I don't think that will be a scenario." (Editor's Note: That's not exactly a No, now, is it?) Walker Report has photos of John Sharp[52], the former Texas Comptroller and White's opponent, in the San Antonio area. And if there does turn out to be a U.S. Senate contest, White and Sharp would be Tier One fundraisers[53] among Democratic candidates nationally, Trail Blazers says.

Democratic Lt. Gov.-hopeful Marc Katz found himself in the wrong place, at the wrong time, in front of the wrong group of people[54] — including the Statesman's Postcards video blogger Ken Herman — who chronicles the Austin deli owner's futile attempt to file his candidacy for office. (One of Katz's several fatal errors: The filing period doesn't start until December.) Elsewhere, a little birdie[55] tells Texas Cloverleaf that 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee Maria Luis Alvarado is thinking about making a second try at the position.

* * * * *

Blogman of Alcatraz

New Hampshire law enforcement arrested[56] Ellis County Observer publisher Joey Dauben on fugitive from justice charges in Texas. He's accused of several felonies[57] — engaging in organized criminal activity, obstruction or retaliation, and misuse of official information — related to a feud with Combine (Kaufman County) police Det. John Allen "Jay" Hoskins, a former contributor to the blog. Lawyers advised ECO bloggers to remove posts about Hoskins[58], and they did. Without delving into the dirty details, we'll share headlines of some of the offending entries (all from within the past week or so), including: "Blogger jailed for posting internal police info"; "Official Oppression Complaint Filed Against John Allen "Jay" Hoskins"; and, "Is Jay Gay?"

In related news, the job fatality rate for newspaper publishers is lower than firefighters but higher than carpenters, according to a dangerous jobs list[59] posted by Grits for Breakfast.

* * * * *

The 56-year-old Virgin

Texas Freedom Network Insider live-blogs from the State Board of Education's Social Studies hearings, here[60], here[61] and here[62]. In summary, the blogger says that in spite of themselves, board members made "some important progress[63] for ensuring that our schoolchildren get an honest and sound education." More from Postcards here[64]. And here's a rule of thumb: If you're 56 years old, a virgin, and you think a state school board meeting is an appropriate forum[65] in which to air that information, you're going to get blogged about by In the Pink.

La Linea isn't impressed with the latest report from the federal Government Accountability Office on the border fence, which stretches 633 miles (with 28 miles to go). In a nutshell, the feds still aren't sure of the effectiveness of the fence, even after spending $6.5 million per mile[66] on construction. (That's a little more than $102 per inch.)

Bay Area Houston brought his video camera to another one[67] of U.S. Rep. Pete Olson's town hall forums[68]. A couple of commenters question the blogger's objective retelling of the facts. Meanwhile, liberal blogger Dog Canyon calls out several Texas Republicans to address fomenting anger among their fellow GOPers. "Do something about it[69]," the blogger implores pollster Mike Baselice, strategist Mark McKinnon and former Gov. Bill Clements. The post attracted a couple dozen responses as of Sunday afternoon, but none from the addressees.

Postcards tracked U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's movements during a fundraising trip to the Austin home of former Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes, here[70], here[71] and here[72]. And Rep. Ken Paxton, R-McKinney, uses Blue Dot Blues as an outlet to distribute a letter to Pelosi[73], which is civil in tone but critical of Pelosi and the Golden State.

Texas Watchdog creates an introductory video[74] on how to use their interactive map of state legislators' ethics forms. Also, Watchdog wants to know why Texas officials' spouses are not required to disclose their finances[75]. (In the beginning of the post, they hold up Sen. Glenn Hegar, R-Katy, as an example of someone whose legislative duties "collided" with his spouse's financial life. Down near the bottom, the blogger says Hegar effectively voted against his wife's business interests, for the record.)

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This edition of Out There was compiled and written by Patrick Brendel, who hails from Victoria but is semi-settled in Austin. We cherry-pick the state's political blogs each week, looking for news, info, gossip, and new jokes. The opinions here belong (mostly) to the bloggers, and we're including their links so you can hunt them down if you wish. Our blogroll — the list of Texas blogs we watch — is on our links[76] page, and if you know of a Texas political blog that ought to be on it, just shoot us a note. Please send comments, suggestions, gripes or retorts to Texas Weekly editor Ross Ramsey[77].

It turns out Gov. Rick Perry didn't stop talking about the recession when the posted version of his speech[78] in Houston, and his next sentence made some sense of the one he's getting pasted for. Perry's first line, as presented via YouTube last week: "Someone had put a report out that the first state that's coming out of the recession is gonna be the State of Texas... I said, 'We're in one?'" Here's the second line that the Kay Bailey Hutchison campaign cut out of what they posted last week: "Seriously, though, the fact is that because we have positioned ourselves so well economically, we're going to be the first state to start showing that major recovery and the rest of the states will follow us out of it, whenever that's going to be." KHOU-TV found the rest of the tape[79] and the folks who edited it (look to the senior senator from Texas). And here's the full audio clip[80].

Gov. Rick Perry and U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison have raised $29 million for their gubernatorial campaigns, and before that race is really underway, Texans for Public Justice has started analyzing the prodigious fundraising.TPJ's report is available online.[81] It concentrates on the two Republicans because their campaign treasuries far outstrip those of the other candidates (Democrat Tom Schieffer has yet to break $1 million in his reported campaign contributions). Some highlights: • Perry has raised more money from big donors (giving $50,000 or more) than Hutchison, getting $3.4 million from those sources while she brought in $1.7 million from the bigs. • The governor has raised more money from out of state than the senator, pulling eight percent of his money from beyond Texas borders; she got two percent of her money from donors outside of Texas. • The report lists 38 contributors who gave both Perry and Hutchison more than $15,000, ten of whom contributed to Perry after Hutchison established her state finance committee.

By Morgan Smith, The Texas Tribune September 28 is a magic date for those speculating about Kay Bailey Hutchison's resignation. Because it's 36 days before the November 3 uniform election, it's the deadline for her to step down and still to have her Senate seat filled then.

Hutchison has said she intends to step down by the end of this year. The next uniform general election date after November is on May 8. So if Hutchison resigns this year—but sometime after the 28th — it could be four months until voters elected a new senator. In that situation, Gov. Rick Perry could choose between two options: wait until May, or declare an emergency and hold the election earlier. Either way, Perry gets to name an interim senator to fill the spot until the election, awarding an ally with a plumb Senate spot. It also comes with a risk. The Texas public has been unfriendly to appointees in this situation, so when the election rolls around, the new senator could be out of a job.

To order an emergency election, Perry can pick any Tuesday or Saturday that isn't a primary election or runoff day, and that is between 36 and 50 days away. (That means the first Tuesday in March of next year and the second Tuesday in April are out). Perry could choose the emergency election for its strategic advantages. The last emergency special election for a Senate seat was in 1993, and it attracted 23 candidates. The high number of candidates makes run-offs likely (Hutchison was the winner in '93, after a runoff). If Perry sets an emergency election for January, the run-off would likely be in February. That would ask voters to turn out for two elections in a row before the March primary; only the most hard-core conservatives — those the governor's strategists believe are on his side — would stick around for a third election in March.

If Monday comes and goes without an announcement from Hutchison's camp, the best fodder for political junkies hoping to probe Perry and Hutchison's strategy is the January 4 filing deadline for gubernatorial candidates. Both of the Republican hopefuls' interests lie in keeping strong Democratic candidates who are eyeing both the Senate and governor's races from running twice (a loser in the first race would be free to run in the second). That means that even if a November date is out of the question, Perry could decide to delay the ordering of a special election until after the January filing deadline to box out candidates who might want to run for both races.

From Hutchison's perspective, stepping down early could yield a few benefits. It would let her focus solely on the race in Texas. If she resigns before next week, she could also avoid any attacks lobbed by Perry advocates that she's wasting taxpayer money by not allowing her vacancy to be filled on a uniform election date. (Texans for Fiscal Responsibility obtained an estimate from Secretary of State Hope Andrade that says a special election to replace Hutchison, with a run-off, could take $30 million from public coffers). If Perry wants to push the election back, he'd then be on the hook for the cost. And if he were to stick with the November 3 date, he'd be the guy who gave Democrats like Bill White and John Sharp two bites at the apple.

msmith@texastribune.org

Gov. Rick Perry's day is Tuesday, when (according to an email he sent this week to supporters), he'll announce for governor. In case you were wondering about his plans.

The governor's folks aren't talking openly about the official announcement, but they're planning an Internet broadcast that'll be streamed to your screen from wherever it is he plans to be talking.

The pitch, from his email: "If you're as tired as I am of Washington politicians running up the tab on hard-working Texans, there's something we can do about it. Join me for an online discussion Tuesday, September 29, at 11:30 a.m. CDT (10:30 in El Paso) as we 'Talk Texas'. Watch your personal video below to learn more. Thanks, God bless you, and may He continue to bless the great State of Texas."

Monday is K-Day. If Kay Bailey Hutchison quits before then, the election to replace her can be held on November 3. If she quits after that date, the replacement race will be held later.

How much later? That would be up to Gov. Rick Perry. If he does nothing, the special election for U.S. Senate would be held on the next uniform election date, in May. He can declare an emergency, though, and set the election on almost any Tuesday or Saturday, so long as it's at least 36 days after Hutchison's resignation date and not on the days the primary elections or their runoffs are held.

That assumes Hutchison will quit, as she's indicated, in the October-November time frame. She doesn't have to quit. Some of her advisors and supporters think she ought to stay in office. Quitting would let her concentrate on the race and get her out of whatever fights in Washington come later this year. But Perry has already tagged her as part of the federal government and she has said (in spite of that bit about October and November above) that she'd like to be there for votes on health care and maybe on cap and trade. Remaining in office also gives her political leverage she'd instantly lose as a former senator. If she stays, and loses in March, she'll still be the senior senator from Texas. Perry's not going anywhere, and he'll still be governor in April. If one's still gonna be here, win or lose, and the other one isn't, the political calculations for people who are currently on the fence are less risky: Choose the one who can hurt you later.

Hutchison and Perry both have reason to avoid a November 3 special election. That's the date of the Houston mayoral election, and current Mayor Bill White, who's running for Senate if Hutchison quits, would have an advantage over other candidates. His home county and the counties that border it produced 22 percent of the state's votes in last year's presidential election. That's roughly the same Houston media market where he's been on TV regularly since he was elected mayor in 2003. And if he were to run and lose a special election for Senate in November, he'd be able to dust himself off and try for the Democratic nomination for governor in 2010. The ads in the Senate race would form the foundation for a statewide race for Guv. That's not something either Republican wants.

Hutchison has an additional incentive: It wouldn't help her candidacy for governor much if her resignation from the Senate caused that position to flip from the Republicans to the Democrats. Several Republicans in the race could split those votes, which could be an advantage to White or to former Comptroller John Sharp. Republicans will tell you it's a Republican state and the seat ought to remain in the GOP column, but if you're Hutchison, why risk it?

—Morgan Smith of The Texas Tribune contributed to this story.

True facts from the Texas political world from just one week:

• Former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, debuted on Dancing with the Stars, starting with a wiggling back to the camera and then lip-syncing "Wild Thing" and sliding across the dance floor on his knees...

• Gov. Rick Perry got caught on a video joking that Texas ducked the recession — on a day when a state agency announced unemployment is now at 8 percent...

• U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's campaign admitted a couple of days later that they were the ones who taped that speech — and the ones who put it on the Internet and in their press releases without his next line, when Perry acknowledged economic trouble but predicted Texas will lead other states in the recovery...

• Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hank Gilbert started a three-day tour of the state that included a stop in Austin where reporters outnumbered supporters and where the candidate got the names of two opponents wrong, referring to "Ted" Schieffer (it's "Tom") and to Kay Bailey "Hutchinson" (it's Hutchison)...

• Democratic Lite Guv candidate Marc Katz — who runs a popular deli in Austin — led local reporters from on a wild goose chase that ended with him at the Secretary of State's office to find out, with cameras rolling, that it's too early to file for office and that the SOS isn't where that's done, anyhow...

Themes: Democrats Tom Schieffer and Hank Gilbert and Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison are all talking about the state's high dropout rates in their bids for governor. A new report from the National Center for Education Statistics said the average freshman graduation rate in Texas in 2005-06 was 72.5 percent. Those are the students who started high school but, for one reason or another, didn't finish.

Attorney General hopeful Ted Cruz says he's got endorsements from the majority of the State Republican Executive Committee. He counts 33 on his side out of 62 (there are two in each state Senate district). Cruz is a contingent candidate who plans to run if current AG Greg Abbott leaves office. Abbott's been looking at a run for lieutenant governor. State Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, is also interested in the AG gig if Abbott leaves.

For your list: Rep. Dan Flynn, R-Van, says he'll seek a fifth term in the Texas House. That's HD-2.

Francisco "Quico" Canseco is in the running — again — for the U.S. House seat currently occupied by Ciro Rodriguez, D-San Antonio. CD-23 is within striking distance for a Republican, by the numbers. It's got a Texas Weekly Index of 0.2, meaning that the average statewide Republican candidate beat the average statewide Democratic candidate by that margin in the last two election cycles. So, on paper, it's a draw. But Rodriguez won with 56 percent last year, and Canseco lost in the GOP primary.

Sen. Eliot Shapleigh, D-El Paso, has a book out. It's "Getting Out of Grover's Tub." The title is a reference to a famous Grover Norquist line about shrinking government until it's small enough to drown in the bathtub. The book's got it's own website, here[82].

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is giving House candidate Milton Rister a boost, lending his name and presence to an Austin fundraiser for his former employee.

Rister, a Georgetown Republican, is running in HD-20, where Dan Gattis is the current state representative. Gattis is running for Senate, leaving the seat open.

Rister is a former executive director of the Texas GOP, former head of the Texas Legislative Council, and a Republican political op who helped former Speaker Tom Craddick win a Republican majority — and thus, the speakership — in the Texas House.

He's got at least two opponents looking at that seat: Dr. Charles Schwertner of Georgetown and Cedar Park City Councilman Stephen Thomas.

Dr. Sam Harrison, a potential candidate for the Texas Senate seat now held by Steve Ogden, says he'll endorse Dan Gattis instead of running himself.That leaves Gattis, currently a Republican state representative from Georgetown, with one potential opponent for now. Ben Bius, who ran unsuccessfully for the House earlier this decade, has expressed an interest in Ogden's job. Gattis is moving quickly, though, and already got some county GOP chairs — including Bius' home county leader — to endorse him. Ogden, who's been in the state Legislature since 1990, announced a couple of weeks ago that he won't seek another term.

Elise Hu, The Texas Tribune More reporters than supporters showed up at Democrat Hank Gilbert Jr.'s Austin campaign event Wednesday, where he announced he's formally in the 2010 race for governor. The supporter count hovered near five. Journalists totaled eight. Gilbert's focusing on fixing education, boosting alternative energy use and protecting property rights as he begins a 13-stop campaign tour of Texas. But is anyone listening? One "supporter" in the Austin audience said he was merely "passing time before [his] haircut appointment". Gilbert staffers stress the Scholz Garten event was planned for press only, but that supporters were invited to show up if they were available. "Our problems can't be fixed with entrenched politicians," Gilbert said, singling out candidates named "Ted" Schieffer and Kay Bailey "Hutchinson". ehu@texastribune.org

Republican gubernatorial candidate Kay Bailey Hutchison adds Keats Norfleet as a "senior advisor" to her campaign.He was the deputy campaign manager for Hutchison's last race and most recently was president of The Election Group (one of the offspring of the Fort Worth-based Eppstein Group). Norfleet adds some Texas experience to the campaign and starts as a voice that Hutchison heeds. She originally had Eppstein and company on the campaign team; this gives her back the member of that crew who had the most time working with her.

John Shults will take over as president of The Election Group.

Dr. Bob Hillman, who is the state veterinarian and the head of the Texas Animal Health Commission, will retire at the end of the year after almost seven years at the agency. Before he had the job here, he was the state veterinarian of Idaho.

Gov. Rick Perry appointed:

• Lori Valenzuela of San Antonio to the 437th district court. She was previous an attorney and a part-time magistrate judge. And she's a former assistant district attorney.

• Lisa Jarrett of San Antonio to the 436th district court. She's also a private practice attorney and a former assistant DA.

• Mary Pincoffs Wilson of Austin to the board of regents at Texas Woman's University in Denton. She's a former foster family chairman for Helping Hand Home for Children.

• Lowell Keig of Austin to the board of the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs. He's general counsel of Youth and Family Centered Services and was at one point a candidate for executive director of the state's Health and Human Services Commission.

• Borden Bell of Texarkana and David Neeley of Mount Pleasant to the Sulphur River Basin Authority's board. Bell is retired from business and Neeley is a senior consultant for the Elliot Auto Group.

• Cary "Mac" Abney of Marshall, Connie Wade of Longview, and Connie Ware of Marshall to the Sabine River Authority board of directors. Wade and Ware are being reappointed; Abney is new to the board. Abney is a CPA. Wade is Gregg County Clerk. Ware is a former teacher and the president and CEO of the Marshall Chamber of Commerce.

• Jerry Daniel of Truscott, George "Wilson" Scaling of Henrietta, and Cliff Skiles of Hereford to the Red River Authority's board. They're all being reappointed. Daniel is a rancher and real estate investor. Scaling owns Scaling and Co. Skiles is a veterinarian.

• Sue Cleveland of Lumberton, Jimmie Ruth Cooley of Woodville, and Kathleen Thea Jackson of Beaumont to the board of the Lower Neches Valley Authority. All three are being reappointed. Cleveland is president of Cleveco Construction Co. Cooley is retired from the real estate business. Jackson is an engineer and public affairs manager with Exxon Mobil Corp.

• Dr. William Purifoy of Fort Worth to chair the Texas State Board of Dental Examiners and appointed Dr. James Chancellor of Garden Ridge to that board. Purifoy is a periodontist. Chancellor is a dentist.

• Former Harris County Clerk Charles Bacarisse of Houston to chair the Texas Department of Information Resources, and named Richard Moore of Goliad to that board. Bacarisse is vice president for advancement at Houston Baptist University, and Moore is a retired veep of business and administration at UT Medical Branch in Galveston.

• Zoe Barinaga of Houston to the Gulf Coast Waste Disposal Authority. She's a marketing manager with Exxon Mobil Chemical Co.

Deaths: Don Yarborough, who ran for governor and for lieutenant governor and helped lead the liberal wing of the Texas Democratic Party in the 1960s. He was 83.

Tina Benkiser will join Gov. Rick Perry's reelection campaign, leaving the chairmanship of the Texas Republican Party after six years in that post. Benkiser, a Houston attorney, will be a "senior advisor" to the Perry campaign on October 5. She told the State Republican Executive Committee of the change this morning, according to the Perry campaign. And the press release announcing the move included a stinger from the GOP leader directed at Perry's rival for the governorship, U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. "I am stepping down as chairman so that I can enthusiastically support the only true conservative in the Texas governor’s race, Governor Rick Perry," she said. "Gov. Perry loves Texas and he cares about Texans. He has shown leadership when Washington has not, and he has shown courage when others have bailed." No replacement has been named. Early speculation about Benkiser's replacement centered on former Texas Secretary of State Roger Williams, who couldn't be reached for comment. Williams has a conflict: He's running for U.S. Senate if Hutchison steps down to jump into the governor's race. Benkiser became chairman in 2003 and presided over the party while it was, on one hand, increasing the number of local-level Republican officeholders and losing elections in the Legislature and in the state's two biggest counties, Dallas and Harris. Dallas, which has flipped on the countywide level from red to blue, is a particular trouble spot for the GOP right now. "Kay Bailey Hutchison, a lifelong Republican, is committed to growing the party, like Ronald Reagan," said Jennifer Baker, speaking for Hutchison. "She looks forward to working with a new chairman to reinvigorate Texas Republicans and increase our majorities in the Legislature."