The Texas Weekly Hotlist, General Election 2014

For our list of the most competitive legislative and congressional seats in the state, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest in and heat generated by a particular race, then assigning each group a nice loud color.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are in bold. Open seats are rated by the apparent margin between top candidates (closer is hotter) and the threat to the incumbent party's hold on the district. Inside each color, the races are listed by district — not by heat.

No changes this week. Campaign finance reports from the campaigns are due on Oct. 6, and should offer some insight about how the candidates are prepared for the final month of the general election cycle. Early voting starts in less than three weeks. 

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More Campaign Finance Numbers Drop Early Next Week

A couple of big election-related deadlines hit on Monday. One is the deadline to submit 30-day campaign finance reports, which will include fundraising activity through Sept. 25. The other deadline is for voters to register for the general election.

If Labor Day marks the start of the horse race to Nov. 4, the 30-day deadline means the race is about to enter the final stretch. In a lot of ways, the totals reported here give outsiders a chance to decide who are the contenders and who are the pretenders.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott disclosed on Wednesday the top-line numbers that he’ll be reporting on Monday. Through Sept. 25, the Abbott campaign raised $7.8 million and will have $30.1 million in cash on hand.

The news prompted a tweet from TW’s Ross Ramsey, who likened Abbott’s cash situation to the movie Brewster’s Millions, the 1985 Richard Pryor movie in which the title character had to spend $30 million in 30 days in order to win a $300 million inheritance.

Indeed, the Abbott campaign might have more money than what it can possibly spend in a month, a situation that most other campaigns probably envy. It’s already been reported that Abbott has dropped at least $10 million on airtime in October, meaning that he’ll be able to go statewide with his TV ads for the whole month.

His opponent, Democrat Wendy Davis, has been actively advertising for a few weeks now, mainly through ads trying to drive up Abbott’s negatives. She also has had two opportunities through the gubernatorial debates to give Texans a chance to see her on the same stage as Abbott.

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It was confirmed this week that the major party nominees for U.S. Senate, Republican John Cornyn and Democrat David Alameel, will meet for a debate on Oct. 24.

The encounter will take place in Dallas, but a broadcast by Univision will take place late the following night. And then there’s this — the debate will be conducted in English, but the broadcast will be simulcast in Spanish.

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Swearing-in speeches for legislators rarely make headlines. That would not be the case, however, for Charles Perry. The Lubbock Republican took the oath of office this week for the West Texas-based SD-28 seat that had been left vacant when Robert Duncan resigned to take over as chancellor at Texas Tech University.

In case you missed it, here’s how The Associated Press reported Perry’s remarks:

In his inaugural speech, Perry said a recent trip to a concentration camp in Berlin made him draw a comparison between what he believes are efforts by the government to pass laws against religion and the killing of Jews during the Holocaust.

“There were 10,000 people that were paraded into a medical office (at the concentration camp in Berlin) under the guise of a physical. As they stood with their back against the wall, they were executed with a bullet through the throat. Before they left, 10,000 people met their fate that way,” Perry said.

“Is it not the same than when our government continues to perpetuate laws that lead citizens away from God? The only difference is that the fraud of the Germans was more immediate and whereas the fraud of today’s government will not be exposed until the final days and will have eternal-lasting effects.”

Newsreel: Disease and Debates

This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: A confirmed case of Ebola in Dallas is testing the state's public health emergency response system. Also, the last set of scheduled debates between the nominees for governor and lieutenant governor took place.

Inside Intelligence: About Those Incentive Funds...

Fresh off of a State Auditor’s report on mismanagement of the Texas Enterprise Fund — that grants had been made without applications and that oversight of beneficiaries’ promised performance was spotty at best — we asked our insiders in politics and government about the fallout for the program and for anyone who might have had anything to do with it.

Most said that in spite of the troubles, the state should continue to use economic development funds to lure business and jobs to the state. About a third said the TEF audit could lead lawmakers to kill the fund and others like it; 46 percent said it would not.

The insiders were split when asked whether the news would affect Gov. Rick Perry’s political future, with 41 percent saying yes and 49 percent saying no. And most said it would not affect any of the current statewide races, although 29 percent said it could affect the race for governor.

We collected verbatim remarks along the way and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

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Should the state continue to use incentive funds to promote economic development and to lure companies to locate or expand in Texas?

• "Bet the ranch that other states will continue to do so (see e.g., Tesla and Nevada). Texas HAS to continue to play the game if it wants to remain competitive in attracting new companies to the state."

• "But there should be an independent board that oversees the fund. No more cronies holding the checkbook."

• "Texas leads the nation in job development. Why change what appears to be working."

• "Only if there will be oversight, measurables, and accountability"

• "Our leaders say we have a good tax structure (arguable), good public schools (arguable), and good infrastructure (arguable) ... that should be all we need to attract businesses."

• "But it should be very limited and require written contracts. There may be instances where it is necessary to compete with other states. The primary incentive should be some type of tax abatements."

• "Governor Perry's administration of these economic development funds has made Texas look like a banana republic, minus the meticulous paperwork."

• "Yes but should be run through special board or an agency like Comptroller's office with direct legislative oversight."

• "Every major state is offering incentives to lure companies and if you are not in the incentives game they site selection companies will pass up those states not offering incentives."

• "Cronyism."

• "It looks too much like 'pay to play.' Yes. But the programs should be monitored and evolved to focus on what incentives work best and to broaden measures of success beyond direct jobs created to include indirect jobs, capital investment and secondary economic impacts."

• "I say film incentives only. We lose many film projects to other states."

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Will the state auditor’s findings about mismanagement of the Texas Enterprise Fund lead lawmakers to kill that program and others like it?

• "It will unwillingly force the legislature to enforce a set of minimum standards on the process."

• "Reform, tweak, modify, or revise--yes. Kill? No."

• "The report will be one of several forces that will combine to kill the program."

• "The Enterprise and Emerging Tech funds were in trouble anyway. Hopefully the skepticism will extend to Chapter 313 school property tax abatements, which cost the state multiples of what's wasted on the high-profile funds."

• "Some will certainly try, but if administered properly, TEF can be a great asset to the state."

• "Too many vested interests, but a Tea Party/Dem coalition could do it. That would be a shame as the state needs some tool to compete with other states or stimulate a new, cutting edge business. Oversight with measurable policy objectives is the key. #ThisIsWhyWeCantHaveNiceThings"

• "Legislature will likely take its cue from Governor Abbott. He's now extremely vulnerable on this issue because of his AG rulings, and if he's smart, he'll kill or trim back both incentive programs."

• "Mend it, don't end it."

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Will the state auditor's findings about TEF have any effect on Rick Perry’s political future?

• "That ship has sailed. No one outside of Austin has any idea what TEF is or does."

• "What political future?"

• "Further confirmation that Governor Perry's rein has been shockingly under-reported and under-investigated. There is blood in the water."

• "The Auditor's report suggests an astounding lack of concern for taxpayer funds and an administrative inefficiency that is fairly breathtaking. Perry's Republican presidential primary opponents, should Perry run and he seems to be pointing toward it, will very reasonably use this against him."

• "Perry's credential as a presidential nominee is his claim to have run, or managed, a large enterprise. (Unlike Sens. Obama, Cruz, Rubio, Paul.) This is how he has managed -- corruptly."

• "He has already sunk his own political future and doesn't need any more help."

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Will the state auditor's findings about TEF operations have any effect on any of these statewide races this year?

• "Early voting starts in two weeks. Voters already know who they are voting for. This issue does nothing for anyone."

• "The list should include all of those in the legislature who voted to create and fund these programs, and those who voted against bringing additional transparency. That said, only insiders and corporate types are going to care about this."

• "In the end, the report won't change the outcome of any election. It will just provide some bilious fodder for campaigns."

• "Every candidate will agree that more oversight needed and none will suffer from it."

• "If Davis was unable to get traction on CPRIT against Abbott, how can this TEF issue make any waves at all?"

• "Ugh the statewide elections are already over, nobody has told you?"

Our thanks to this week’s participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Victor Alcorta, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, Eva De Luna-Castro, June Deadrick, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Susan Hays, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Laura Huffman, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Walt Jordan, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Jason McElvaney, Steve Minick, Mike Moses, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Kraege Polan, Gary Polland, Ted Melina Raab, Karen Reagan, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Grant Ruckel, Tyler Ruud, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Nancy Sims, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Trey Trainor, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Saturday, Oct. 4

  • Earth, Wind & Fire Energy Summit; 15650 Addison Rd., Addison (Oct. 4-5)

Monday, Oct. 6

  • 30-day out campaign finance reports due
  • Last day to register to vote for Nov. 4 general election
  • Austin mayoral candidate forum; 1120 S. Lamar Blvd., Austin (11 a.m.-1 p.m.)
  • Changing Population, Changing Health Care TribLive conversation; 6100 Main St., Houston (12-1 p.m.)

Tuesday, Oct. 7

  • State Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond, golf tournanment fundraiser; 23030 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Katy (9 a.m.)

Wednesday, Oct. 8

  • Texas Civil Justice League fundraiser for Texas Supreme Court Justice Nathan Hecht; 221 W. Sixth St., Austin (5-6:30 p.m.)

Thursday, Oct. 9

  • State Rep. Celia Israel, D-Austin, fundraiser; 3707 Laurel Ledge Ln., Austin (5:30-7 p.m.)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

A patient at Dallas' Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital was diagnosed Tuesday with Ebola, the first such infection to appear in the U.S. The diagnosis spurred a response by both the federal and state governments, including a quarantine of the infected man's family. Scrutiny also fell on the hospital after it was revealed the patient was sent home before he was put in isolation two days later.

The U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday lifted a stay issued by a lower court that had blocked enforcement of the law passed last year subjecting Texas abortion clinics to new restrictions. Eight clinics in the state remain open while a challenge to the law continues to make its way through the legal system.

Debates were held this week between the major party nominees for governor and lieutenant governor. Both debates were characterized by tough stances taken by the candidates as they made their likely last appearances together on stage before the Nov. 4 general election.

The state's highest criminal appellate court refused to reinstate money-laundering convictions against former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. The appeals court upheld the Third Court of Appeals' ruling reversing the 2010 convictions.

The state will appeal a district judge's ruling against the school fincance system, according to a filing made late last week. The appeal goes directly to the Texas Supreme Court.

Political People and their Moves

Dave Mann has joined the staff of Texas Monthly as senior editor. A longtime fixture at the Texas Observer, Mann joined that publication in 2003 and was made editor in 2011.

Alan Gray has left the Licensed Beverage Distributors after 22 years there, the last six as executive director. He has since hung out his own shingle, Alan Gray Advocacy and Consulting, which he said is a general lobbying operation.

Ken Paxton, the GOP nominee for attorney general, was endorsed by the political arm of the Texas Farm Bureau.

The political arm of the Texas Medical Association endorsed GOP comptroller candidate Glenn Hegar and Wayne Faircloth, the GOP nominee for the Galveston-based HD-23. The district is considered one of the House's few swing districts.

Libby Willis, the Democratic candidate in Tarrant County-based SD-10, was endorsed by the Texas Parent PAC, which backs public education-oriented legislative candidates. SD-10 is considered the one swing district in the Senate.

Former Lieutenant Governor Bill Hobby endorsed fellow Democrat Leticia Van de Putte, who is running for his old job.

Disclosure: Texas Monthly, the Texas Medical Association and the Texas Farm Bureau are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. The Hobby Family Foundation is a major donor to the Texas Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Quotes of the Week

He volunteered that he had traveled to Africa. That information was not fully disseminated.

Mark Lester, the southeast clinical leader for the parent company of Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital, on why the man who was later diagnosed with the country's first case of Ebola was initially sent home with antibiotics

I think sweating bullets is probably the right term. I would be concerned.

Ed Barker, a former hospital system general counsel, to Texas Lawyer on the potential legal issues raised by that two-day delay in putting the Ebola patient in isolation

Politics is much more difficult than war. In politics, there are so many more fronts.

Masoud Barzani, now president of Iraq's semiautonomous region, to The New Yorker's Dexter Filkins in 2005 after wrapping up work on the country's new constitution

At this point it's 90/10 he's in. And honestly, 90 is lowballing it.

An unnamed Ted Cruz advisor, telling National Journal the odds of a Cruz candidacy for president in 2016. The assessment was quickly discounted by Cruz via a Facebook post.

They’re entitled to opine upon it. In fact, it’s their job to opine upon it. But it’s an opinion.

Libertarian nominee for governor Kathie Glass with her take during Thursday's TribLive conversation on the scope of the judiciary's power to interpret the constitutionality of laws