The Election Hotlist for the 2016 Texas Primaries

For our list of the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' names are bolded. This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust and argue and debate as the March 1 primary approaches. Let us know what you think.

No changes this week.

 

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Ted Cruz Posts Big Fundraising Haul After His Iowa Win

Supporters gather to see Sen. Ted Cruz and to await the results of the Republican caucus at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines, Iowa on February 1, 2016.
Supporters gather to see Sen. Ted Cruz and to await the results of the Republican caucus at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines, Iowa on February 1, 2016.

Ted Cruz's presidential campaign announced Thursday morning it has raised $3 million since his victory in the Iowa caucuses.

The campaign's total haul since Jan. 1 is now $10 million, campaign manager Jeff Roe said in a tweet. The sum represents 182,000 donations averaging $55 each. 

Cruz won the caucuses Monday, beating billionaire Donald Trump 28 percent to 24 percent.

*****

Former Gov. Rick Perry is returning to the presidential campaign trail for Cruz.

Perry said Thursday afternoon his "next stop" for Cruz, the U.S. senator from Texas, is South Carolina. Perry stumped for Cruz last week in Iowa after giving his endorsement to the U.S. senator from Texas.

The former governor, an Air Force veteran, said he can especially be an asset for Cruz in the Palmetto State, which holds its Republican primary Feb. 20.

"Our focus on veterans affairs and active duty military is an area I can be helpful to Sen. Cruz," Perry said in a conversation with reporters on the website Sidewire.

Perry also told reporters Cruz's home-field advantage is holding up well in Texas, where Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is chairing his campaign.

"With the ground game that Sen. Cruz has developed along with Lt. Gov. Patrick's organization, Cruz has a strong firewall in Texas," Perry said.

*****

Former Harris County GOP Chairman Jared Woodfill on Wednesday officially launched his campaign for chairman of the Republican Party of Texas.

Woodfill in recent days has been active in holding a series of “Take Back Our Party” rallies with several social conservative groups in an attempt to organize backers ahead of the selection of delegates for the May state party convention.

In announcing his candidacy, Woodfill touted his 12 years at the head of the Harris County Republican Party (“the largest Republican county party in the country”) as well as his more recent role at the head of the fight against Houston’s equal rights ordinance.

He couched the terms of his challenge for the state party chair as a fight to put the party in the lead of a fight to “decide the fate of American liberty.”

“Friends, we are engaged in a cultural war and our Republican Party of Texas leadership is running from the fight! One need only look at the 2015 legislative sessions to find evidence of the RPT surrendering our values,” Woodfill wrote in his candidacy announcement.

Woodfill is aiming to unseat the incumbent chairman, Tom Mechler, at the convention. Mechler formally announced on Tuesday that his running for re-election for his first full term as chairman.

In a written statement, Mechler said, “Success in 2016 and beyond is tied directly to the success of the RPT and I look forward to aggressively campaigning across the state so that Texas will remain the leading voice of conservatism in America for years to come.”

Mechler was chosen over Woodfill and two other candidates by the RPT’s executive committee last March to fill the unexpired term of Chairman Steve Munisteri, who stepped down to join the presidential campaign of Rand Paul.

State Rep. Ron Reynolds Has Bar Disciplinary Hearing Delayed

Rep. Ron Reynolds, D-Missouri City, during a House Environmental Regulations Committee on April 16, 2013.
Rep. Ron Reynolds, D-Missouri City, during a House Environmental Regulations Committee on April 16, 2013.

State Rep. Ron Reynolds, who is facing a tough primary election this year, won't face a disciplinary hearing with the State Bar of Texas until after the March 1 primary.

Claire Mock, a state bar spokeswoman said Reynolds' hearing has been rescheduled until April 29 because the organization has not be able to serve Reynolds with official notice of the hearing.

Reynolds represents House District 27, which covers most of Missouri City and parts of Houston and Sugar Land. Last year, a Montgomery County jury sentenced Reynolds to one year in jail and a fine for his conviction on five counts he illegally solicited legal clients.

First elected to the Texas Legislature in 2010, Reynolds, D-Missouri City, now faces three other challengers in the primary: Angelique Bartholomew, Christopher Henderson, an assistant Galveston County prosecutor and Steve Brown, former chairman of the Fort Bend County Democrats.

The primary contest is one of our Hotlist races.

*****

Gov. Greg Abbott on Wednesday set May 7 as the date for a special election to fill the unexpired term of state Rep. Ruth Jones McClendon, D-San Antonio, who resigned her seat representing HD-120 on Sunday.

Candidates wishing to be placed on the special election ballot have until March 7 to submit applications. Early voting in the special election will start April 25.

Also scheduled for May 7 is the election to fill the HD-139 seat in Harris County left open by Sylvester Turner’s resignation to become Houston mayor.

*****

San Antonio Congressman Joaquin Castro and his wife, Anna, announced the birth of their son, Roman Victor Castro, Tuesday afternoon. Castro said in an announcement shared by his office, “Both mom and baby are healthy, and Andrea is excited to be a big sister!”

*****

File this under lobby fights to watch next session: the Texas Association of Business and the Texas Public Policy Foundation announced Tuesday that they intend to push deregulation of the title insurance industry next session.

The organizations claim the current regulatory structure stifles competition and keeps rates artificially high.

*****

Texas Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick on Tuesday reunited with an old colleague — by delivering a guest lecture at the law class he teaches.

The Republican spoke to former Commissioner Barry Smitherman’s University of Texas at Austin law class, the commission said Wednesday.

Smitherman, who left the agency at the end of 2014, now practices energy law at Vinson and Elkins, the international law firm. And as an adjunct professor, he teaches a class called “Texas Energy Law.”

Here’s the full description of the course.

And no, he is not reviewed on RateMyProfessors.com — yet.

Inside Intelligence: About Those Iowa Caucuses

For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked about your thoughts on the Iowa caucuses.

Iowa's status as the first in the nation nominating contest is both a political tradition and the source of debate every four years. So we started by asking what the insiders thought of the Iowa caucuses.

The insiders were almost evenly split between describing the caucuses as a good initial tool to cull the field of presidential candidates (38 percent) and not representative enough of the nation to serve a valuable role (35 percent). The good news for the people of Iowa? Just 1 percent said the Iowa caucuses amount to a waste of time.

We then asked if the major political parties should take away Iowa's first in the nation voting status. Insiders were more or less split on the question with 48 percent saying Iowa should no longer go first on the calendar and 41 percent saying the parties should leave it alone.

If Iowa isn't first, which state should be? We offered five alternative options. Ohio got the most support among the insiders with 30 percent, followed by Texas (23 percent), Florida (10 percent), Colorado (4 percent) and Illinois (2 percent).

But if the insiders have complaints about the current system of choosing the major parties' nominees for president, a slight majority wouldn't trade the current system for a different one. Another 28 percent supported using a series of regional primaries to determine the nominee while 11 percent supported a nationwide primary.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

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What’s the best way to think of the Iowa caucuses?

• "The Iowa caucus is a great tool to make America believe everyone campaigning for the presidency has a fair shot. The state is perfect for retail politics and perfect for those without a war chest. If Florida or Texas were the first states, those without a $40 MILLION war chest would've never launched a campaign."

• "An excellent way to raise much needed campaign cash both before and after the caucuses."

• "It's just a beginning. We have to start somewhere."

• "I don't know if it's a waste of time, but they definitely get more attention than necessary. At the end of the caucus, which was reported as an overwhelming victory for Cruz, he has eight delegate votes, Trump and Rubio each have seven. The nominee will need over 1200 delegate votes to secure the nomination. For the Democratic race, which is perceived to be the closer race, Clinton has 29 delegates and Sanders has 21. One of these candidates will need over 2,000 delegate votes."

• "It is what it is... tradition. About the same number of votes as you get in Harris County. But, hey, tradition."

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Would the major parties be wise to take away Iowa’s first in the nation voting status?

• "Iowa functions like a focus group for the country — voters there expect to see every candidate, ask them questions and see how they operate on turf that is completely foreign to media land. It allows the bases of both parties — the state has both an extremely right wing and an extremely left wing — to measure the candidates up close."

• "The sense that it doesn't matter which party you vote for, you get the same results, is palpable. It's wrong, of course, but people feel that Washington never changes, and for that reason, insurgents in both parties are strong."

• "Iowa's priority position is a odd remnant of the McGovern campaign. Let's try something rational, like a large representative state."

• "Would be hard to replicate the buzz factor elsewhere. But, still not very predictive of ultimate outcome."

• "Somebody has to go first. The process is valuable because it develops over time. If a fully 'representative' state went first, then the election would be over after one state, no?"

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If you could choose which state primary/caucus goes first, it would be…

• "Hawaii. Because those poor campaign staffers trudging in the snow need a break."

• "Regional primaries with five or six regions of approximately equal population. The order of regions could be rotated or randomly shuffled every four years."

• "I read this week that Illinois and Pennsylvania are more reflective of U.S. demographics on race, religion, age, higher education and economic indices. And they are both swing states."

• "It shouldn't be one individual state, it should a few or at most a handful of states that represent various geographic regions of the country: southeast, west, northeast, and Midwest. Let's see how candidates manage resources and craft a message that appeals simultaneously to various parts of the country."

• "Maybe a purple state with open primaries?"

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What’s the best way to choose a presidential nominee?

• "The national primary sounds good, but is impractical. It would take too much money and wouldn't allow for any real grassroots campaigning. The debates give the nation a chance to watch the process, but real campaigning has to be done state by state."

• "Choose the nominees by holding a series of elections in the major college football/basketball conferences. Say it out loud: The Big XII Primary. Has a nice ring to it."

• "This is a decision that should take a long time. This is a hard job. The American people need the opportunity to watch the candidates in action, watch them grow, see if they can handle it. If they can't manage a rough campaign, they really cannot handle the presidency."

• "A far from perfect system, but it works ... at least most of the time."

• "Whatever system is utilized, retail one-on-one discussions between candidates and voters needs to be a significant part. A regional system or even a large state first in the nation approach would tend to favor the candidate with the best TV and paid messaging. Both parties need more connection between voters and their candidates and officeholders, not less."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, James Bernsen, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Corbin Casteel, Elna Christopher, Kevin Cooper, Randy Cubriel, Beth Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Glenn Deshields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jack Erskine, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Jim Henson, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones, Walt Jordan, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Dale Laine, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, Luke Legate, Myra Leo, Matt Mackowiak, Jason McElvaney, Kathy Miller, Mike Moses, Nelson Nease, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Boyd Richie, Carl Richie, A.J. Rodriguez, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Sherry Sylvester, Sara Tays, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Ware Wendell, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Saturday, Feb. 6

  • Travis County Democratic Party 2016 Johnson Bentsen Richards Dinner honoring state Rep. Elliott Naishtat, D-Austin, with keynote speaker U.S. Housing Secretary Julián Castro; 98 San Jacinto Blvd., Austin (6:30 p.m.)

Monday, Feb. 8

  • Conference: "Race, Democracy and Public Policy in America: From LBJ's Great Society to Barack Obama and Black Lives Matter," presented by the Center for the Study of Race and Democracy (CSRD); 2315 Red River St., Bass Lecture Hall, Austin (Feb. 8-9)

Tuesday, Feb. 9

  • New Hampshire primary elections
  • "Immigration Summit: The Economics of Immigration Reform" with Ray Perryman of the Perryman Group, Steve Murdock of the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University, Todd Schulte of FWD.US, and Jesus Romero of the Christian Life Commission of the Baptist General Convention of Texas; 604 Brazos St., Austin (5:30-9 p.m.)
  • Williamson County Reagan Dinner with keynote speaker Gov. Greg Abbott; 2 Texas Drive, Georgetown (7-9 p.m.)

Thursday, Feb. 11

  • State Rep. René Oliveira, D-Brownsville, fundraiser; 110 E. Ninth St., Austin (4:30-6:30 p.m.)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

State Rep. Jonathan Stickland’s GOP primary challenger, Scott Fisher, has found more than 3,000 of the Bedford Republican’s old posts on the fantasy football site FFtoday.com. The posts offer a rare glimpse at the unscrubbed online life of a political candidate before he took office. 

Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign is kicking into high gear in Texas with the opening of its first office in Houston Thursday.

Travis County health officials on Thursday confirmed the first case of the Zika virus in the county. A man under the age of 50 contracted the illness while traveling in Colombia, according to the Austin/Travis County Health and Human Services Department.

Anti-abortion activists indicted after infiltrating a Houston Planned Parenthood facility were offered probation deals by Harris County prosecutors. David Daleiden, one of the videographers, rejected the offer and plans to fight the charges.

Texas Department of Public Safety Trooper Brian Encinia's arraignment on a perjury charge related to his arrest of Sandra Bland will be held in March, the Waller County District Clerk's office confirmed. In the meantime, lawyers for the state are trying to hold off a civil lawsuit filed by Bland's family.

Oncor, the state’s largest utility, is warning state regulators that electric rates could increase for millions of Texas customers if they approve a complex reorganization plan offered by the Ray L. Hunt family.

Citing an increasingly diversified Texas economy, former Gov. Rick Perry on Wednesday boasted about the “Texas Miracle” and said there’s no reason to be overly concerned about the plummeting price of oil.

Ted Cruz on Wednesday began winning over supporters of Rand Paul in Texas following his Senate colleague's exit from the race for the White House. Most prominent is state Sen. Don Huffines, the Dallas Republican who had chaired the Paul campaign in Texas.

Austin, Galveston and Midland are facing serious questions about how much to alter local statutes in order to persuade Uber, an app-based vehicle-for-hire company, to continue operating. Uber has battled the three cities over approved and proposed rules this week.

A record number of people wrongly convicted of crimes were exonerated in 2015, with 42 wrongful convictions in Harris County drug cases boosting the nationwide tally to 149, according to the National Registry of Exonerations' annual report.

Public health officials in Dallas County have confirmed the first sexually transmitted case of the Zika virus, said to be linked to birth defects.

Ben Carson's campaign said it has accepted an apology from Ted Cruz over messages Cruz's campaign sent to supporters Monday evening in Iowa suggesting that Carson might be about to drop out of the race.

Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign announced his Texas leadership team Tuesday. The team includes current and former state representatives James Frank, Larry Gonzales, Jason Isaac, Linda Harper-Brown, Martha Wong, Peggy Hamric and Myra Crownover.

Lubbock Mayor Glen Robertson and former Texas Tech University Vice Chancellor Jodey Arrington were the two highest fundraisers in the nine-person race to succeed U.S. Rep. Randy Neugebauer, R-Lubbock, according to newly filed campaign finance reports.

With his win Monday night in the Iowa caucuses, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is riding a wave of momentum that can boost his prospects in New Hampshire. Before Monday night, the Texan presidential hopeful was already poised to beat expectations in the Granite State as the beneficiary of a splintered race for establishment support there. With his victory over billionaire Donald Trump in Iowa, however, Cruz now heads to the next state with a wider opening than ever.

Gov. Greg Abbott and U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, a Laredo Democrat, pressed the Department of Homeland Security on Monday to explain why the agency plans to reduce its aerial surveillance on the Texas-Mexico border.

A Texas Ethics Commission opinion that would have allowed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to fund his ongoing legal battle through out-of-state donors failed to pass by one vote Monday.

In the six-way Democratic primary to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Rubén Hinojosa, D-Edinburg, Dolly Elizondo received a boost Monday from EMILY's List, the influential organization that backs exclusively female Democratic candidates.

What is the definition of "tangible personal property?" The arcane question is at the center of a lawsuit that could reap energy companies a multibillion-dollar windfall and drain the state's budget surplus. “This is very serious, real money," Comptroller Glenn Hegar said.

Texas Tech University, the University of North Texas, the University of Texas at Dallas and the University of Texas at Arlington have been designated as “Carnegie Tier One” schools, by the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education.

Disclosure: Texas Tech University, the University of Texas at Arlington and Uber are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. The University of North Texas was a corporate sponsor in 2014. Oncor was a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune in 2012. Planned Parenthood was a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune in 2011. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Political People and their Moves

Gov. Greg Abbott announced on Thursday the appointment of 31 members to a task force on infectious disease preparedness and response. Texas Department of State Health Services Commissioner John Hellerstedt was named director of the task force.

Abbott appointed Gerald Ladner Sr. of Austin to the Risk Management Board and reappointed Rosemary Gammon of Plano. They were named to terms to expire Feb. 1, 2021. In addition, Abbott named Lloyd Gardner of Lubbock as the board’s presiding officer.

Ted Cruz's presidential campaign on Tuesday announced the endorsement of Jeff Duncan, a congressman from the first-in-the-South primary state of South Carolina.

A Georgia-based tea party group, the Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund, has decided to endorse Russ Ramsland, a primary challenger looking to unseat House Rules Chairman Pete Sessions, R-Dallas. Ramsland is one of four candidates challenging the incumbent Sessions in the mostly Dallas County-based CD-32.

TEXPAC, the political arm of the Texas Medical Association, announced on Thursday its final batch of endorsements for the March 1 party primary elections. The highlights include a dual endorsement of Dawn Buckingham and Susan King for the open SD-24 GOP primary, an endorsement of the incumbent Stuart Spitzer in the contested HD-4 primary and the endorsement of Bryan Hughes in the open SD-1 GOP primary.

The National Women’s Political Caucus of Texas released an endorsement list numbering 33 candidates. Highlights here include a dual endorsement of Gina Hinojosa and Heather Way in the open HD-49 Democratic contest to succeed Austin Democratic state Rep. Elliott Naishtat. In addition, the group endorsed Helen Madla, the widow of former state Sen. Frank Madla, in her challenge to incumbent state Sen. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio, in the SD-19 Democratic primary.

Former state Rep. Lon Burnam said on Friday that he’s received an endorsement from former Houston Mayor Bill White in his bid to win the Democratic nomination for Railroad Commissioner.

SD-24 Republican candidate Brent Mayes has won the endorsement of the political arm of the anti-abortion group, Texas Right to Life.

State Rep. Tan Parker, chairman of the House Republican caucus, is endorsing incumbent state Rep. Dan Flynn in his re-election for House District 2, east of Dallas. Flynn also received endorsements this week from the National Rifle Association’s Political Victory Fund, the Texas State Rifle Association and former Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson.

Republican Terry Wilson has earned the support of former radio host Sgt. Sam Cox in his race to unseat state Rep. Marsha Farney, R-Georgetown, in HD-20, north of Austin. Cox was the co-host of “Austin’s Morning News with Mark, Ed and Sgt. Sam” on KLBJ until his retirement last summer.

The political arm of Texans for Lawsuit Reform endorsed on Tuesday state Rep. Paul Workman, R-Austin, for re-election to represent HD-47 in southern and western Travis County.

The Texas Municipal Police Association endorsed Bedford pastor Scott Fisher over state Rep. Jonathan Stickland, R-Bedford, in the race for HD-92 in Tarrant County.

The Texas Municipal Police Association and the Dallas Police Association are supporting Republican Andrew Piel in his efforts to unseat state Rep. Tony Tinderholt, R-Arlington, in Tarrant County’s HD-94.

State Sen. Don Huffines, R-Dallas, is endorsing Dallas lawyer Dan Morenoff in his bid to unseat state Rep. Jason Villalba, R-Dallas, in HD-114 in Dallas County.

HD-115 GOP challenger Bennett Ratliff announced on Friday an endorsement from the Texas Municipal Police Association in his bid to unseat the incumbent Matt Rinaldi.

The Texas Hospital Association PAC and the Texas Dental Association PAC are supporting Republican Kevin Roberts in his bid to be the next state representative in HD-126 in Harris County. The candidate also received late last week endorsements from the Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas (CLEAT), the Houston Police Retired Officers Association (HPROA), and the TMPA.

Republican Tom Oliverson has earned the support of the Texas Values Action PAC and the United Republicans of Harris County in his race for state representative in HD-130.

The Texas Oil and Gas Association PAC is endorsing state Rep. Sarah Davis, R-University Place, for re-election to the Houston-area HD-134 seat.

Annie’s List announced on Monday the addition of four new board members: Jade Chang Sheppard of Austin; Rita Lucido of Houston; Yvonne Morales Pelayo of San Antonio; and Joyce Townsend of San Antonio.

The Texas Travel Industry Association and the Texas Commercial Airports Association announced last week that they will join forces in advocating for the travel industry in the state. The TTIA’s Homero Lucero and Ron Hinkle will expand their respective duties to also represent the TCAA.

Disclosure: The Texas Medical Association, the Texas Hospital Association, the Texas Dental Association, the Texas Travel Industry Association are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. Paul and Sherry Workman, Jerry Patterson, Jade Chang Sheppard and Elliott Naishtat are donors to The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Quotes of the Week

All the people who were watching this race were asking, ‘Are Trump voters real?’ and it turns out they were not. They weren’t real today, they won’t be real next week and they won’t be real the week after that.

Ted Cruz spokesman Rick Tyler to reporters after the Texas senator's victory in the Iowa GOP caucuses this week

We’re going to look back on Iowa in March and April, and it’s going to seem like the Crimean War. This thing is just beginning.

Former Mitt Romney strategist Stuart Stevens on his expectations of a long slog for both parties to the presidential nomination

If I went outside to get the paper and forgot to spray myself and a mosquito bit me, do I need to run to a doctor and have myself checked for Zika? No, you don’t.

Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins, seeking to allay fears after the first case of Zika virus in someone who hadn't traveled outside the U.S. surfaced in his county

Some Republicans in the state Legislature and small, poser, wannabe organizations will tell you that Texas Right to Life is an organization of unyielding, intransigent, stubborn, uncompromising jerks. Guilty as charged. And you ain’t seen nothing yet.

Texas Right to Life president Jim Graham wrote in an email to supporters Tuesday, as reported by The Dallas Morning News