Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

Former presidential candidate and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz speaks at the state Republican convention in Dallas, Texas on May 14, 2016.

Ted Cruz is not banking on a speaking slot at the Republican National Convention with a few weeks to go until the festivities in Cleveland.

That's what his team made clear Monday afternoon, responding to an interview published over the weekend in which Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, said he would not invite Cruz to speak if the Texas senator does not endorse Trump. Since dropping out of the race last month, Cruz has declined to offer any support to Trump.

"We haven’t operated under any assumption that we’ll have a speaking role, those decisions are up to those planning the convention," Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier said in a statement. "Cruz’s priority in going to Cleveland will be to thank the many delegates who worked hard on his behalf while he was in the race, and he’s looking forward to that."

The convention is being held from July 18-21 in Cleveland. Cruz has said he will attend, but the extent of his role there remains unclear.

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In other Cruz news, he scored a major victory Tuesday in his efforts to boost down-ballot candidates across the country.

Darryl Glenn, a county commissioner considered a long shot until recently, won the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Colorado. In November, Glenn will face Michael Bennet, considered Senate Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent.

Cruz had endorsed Glenn earlier this month and traveled to Denver to campaign for him. The Texas senator took to social media Wednesday to congratulate Glenn on the improbable win.

Not all Republicans are celebrating the victory by Glenn, a conservative favorite with a skeletal campaign who starts at a serious disadvantage against Bennet. Progress Texas, a liberal advocacy organization based in Austin, offered a "sincere thank you" to Cruz on Wednesday for helping a candidate the group sees as dead on arrival in the general election.

"Democrats have a great chance to win a U.S. Senate majority now that Ted Cruz helped a Donald Trump-loving candidate win a Colorado primary," Ed Espinoza, executive director of Progress Texas, said in a statement. "That candidate has no chance of winning a general election and this morning national Republicans have written-off the race."

Four Cruz-backed candidates were on the ballot Tuesday. Two of them, Glenn and U.S. Rep. Jim Bridenstine of Oklahoma, won their races, while the other two, South Carolina state Sen. Lee Bright and Oklahoma House hopeful Carl Parson, lost.

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Cruz's leadership PAC is getting a reboot.

His Jobs Growth and Freedom Fund is now known as the Jobs, Freedom, and Security PAC, according to paperwork filed Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission. The new name reflects the platform that characterized Cruz's final weeks as a presidential candidate.

Politicians like Cruz typically use leadership PACs to fund their activities supporting like-minded candidates and to house political staff. In the run-up to the current presidential race, leadership PACs were a popular vehicle for laying the groundwork for an official run. 

The Jobs Growth and Freedom Fund was largely dormant during Cruz's presidential campaign, raising and spending very little. As of May 31, it had $37,718.38 in the bank.

*****

Donald Trump finally weighed in Thursday on the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down Texas' abortion restrictions.

In a radio interview, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee used the case to argue he can be trusted to replace Antonin Scalia, the conservative justice who died earlier this year.

"Now if we had Scalia was living or if Scalia was replaced by me, you wouldn't have had that," Trump told conservative radio host Mike Gallagher. "OK? It would've been the opposite."

Trump's promise is not entirely true. The high court's ruling was 5-3, meaning it still would not have mattered if Scalia added his vote to the opposition, as he likely would have done.

Trump had been silent on the landmark decision, which came down Monday. His Democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, quickly commented on it, calling it "a victory for women across America."

*****

Austin pollster Mike Baselice has joined Trump's presidential campaign, Baselice confirmed Thursday afternoon.

Baselice has previously polled for former Gov. Rick Perry and current Gov. Greg Abbott when he was attorney general. Baselice's hire by the Trump campaign was first reported by The New York Times.

The New York Times also reported Trump's team has hired Kellyanne Conway, a pollster who previously helmed a super PAC supporting Ted Cruz's presidential campaign. Conway did not respond to a request for comment.

Enlarge Abby Livingston

U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan at the Republican National Committee in Washington D.C. on April 12, 2016.

U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan will be in Texas for at least the third time since he took the gavel as the House GOP leader.

Ryan will headline a fundraiser today for his political operation at a ranch in Wimberley, Texas. Requested donations range from $2,700 to $244,000, according to an invitation obtained by the Tribune.

Nine Republican members of the delegation are also scheduled to attend: U.S. Reps. Joe Barton of Ennis, Kevin Brady of The Woodlands, John Carter of Round Rock, Mike Conaway of Midland, Blake Farenthold of Corpus Christi, Bill Flores of Bryan, Will Hurd of San Antonio, Michael McCaul of Austin, Randy Weber of Friendswood and Roger Williams of Austin.

Contributions will go toward Ryan's personal congressional campaign, his leadership political action committee and the House GOP campaign arm, the National Republican Congressional Committee. Ryan is in a mostly safe Wisconsin seat. As a party leader, he mostly uses this money to support GOP campaigns in competitive House districts.

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Tom Harrison, the vice chairman and longest-serving member of the Texas Ethics Commission and also that agency’s former executive director, sent his letter of resignation to Gov. Greg Abbott late last week.

But he can’t leave just yet.

Harrison’s term on that commission was supposed to end on Nov. 19, 2011. He was appointed to the job in March 2004 and reappointed in 2007. But neither Abbott nor his predecessor, Rick Perry, appointed a replacement. The law says appointees serve until their replacements are named or until they themselves are disqualified, (which generally means by death or relocation to another state).

Harrison’s replacement is a little complicated, as he or she has to be chosen by the governor from a list submitted by the Senate’s Democratic Caucus (others are chosen from lists submitted by House Democrats and by Republicans in the Senate and in the House). While the Senate Democrats and the governor work this out, Harrison will remain on the job.

Three other commissioners — Wilhelmina Delco, Paul Hobby, and Bob Long — are also due for replacement. Their terms on the eight-member board expired last November.

*****

Precinct chairs in state Senate District 13 will meet July 16 to effectively elect the successor to Rodney Ellis, the Texas Democratic Party announced Monday afternoon.

The Houston lawmaker is vacating the seat after being selected as the Democratic nominee for Harris County commissioner on Saturday, taking the late El Franco Lee’s spot on the ballot. Whomever wins the support of a majority of the precinct chairs at the July 16 meeting will take Ellis’ ballot spot in November, where he is running unopposed.

State Rep. Garnet Coleman later in the week chose to take himself out of the running for the seat.

"Over the last several months I’ve been honored to hear encouragement from so many constituents, precinct chairs, party activists and friends about pursuing the position of Senator from District 13 after Senator Ellis’ vacancy," Coleman said in a statement Thursday afternoon. "After careful deliberation, however, I have decided to remain in the House of Representatives, as one of the most senior members of the body, and chair of the County Affairs Committee and Legislative Study Group Caucus."

Coleman's decision not to enter the race leaves three candidates in the mix: Houston state Reps. Borris Miles and Senfronia Thompson, as well as former City Controller Ron Green.

***** 

Robert Morrow, the controversial new chairman of the Travis County GOP, presided over his first meeting Tuesday and it went... pretty much as expected. 

Morrow began the meeting by saying he supports the "continued functioning" of the party as it is, then launched into a recitation of all the conspiracy theories that have become synonymous with him. Morrow showed up in a three-pointed jester's hat — each point, he said, representing a little-known indiscretion by a U.S. political leader.

The room seemed largely uninterested in the spiel by Morrow, and in a few instances, people tried to cut him off to no avail. Before his remarks, he made an effort to introduce himself to the skeptical crowd, going around the room and shaking hands.

The Austin American-Statesman has more on the meeting, which came three weeks after the party's executive committee voted to limit the role of the chairman.

Enlarge

For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked about those post-"Brexit" vote woes and what's next after the Supreme Court's abortion ruling.

This week was eventful on the news front so we decided to split our questions in order to ask about the implications to Texas of a major international event (the "Brexit" vote late last week) and a major national event (the U.S. Supreme Court knocking down two key components of Texas' 2013 abortion law early this week).

The immediate aftermath of the vote by the British to leave the European Union roiled world markets with both stocks and commodity prices taking a hit. We started the survey this week by asking where the Texas economy might most feel the impact.

About one in five said that Texans' personal investments and savings would most be affected with another 15 percent citing an impact on oil and energy prices and 14 percent citing the impact on Texas exports. Just 2 percent singled out the tech sector.

Another 21 percent said "all of the above" while 17 percent said none of those areas would be impacted by the Brexit.

After the votes were tabulated, analysts also pointed to similarities between the pro-Brexit campaign and Donald Trump's campaign to secure the GOP nomination for president. We asked whether the Brexit vote foreshadows the results of the November presidential election.

The insiders were mostly in agreement on this one, with 70 percent saying Brexit doesn't point to a Trump victory in the fall.

We then turned to the impact of the Court's abortion ruling. On this one, 90 percent of the insiders believed that GOP lawmakers would work to reinstate in some fashion the regulations on abortion facilities that were struck down this week.

A total of 19 percent thought lawmakers would try to revive the facility standards regulations while 4 percent thought lawmakers would address the regulation requiring doctors at abortion facilities to have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital.

Fully two-thirds of the insiders thought lawmakers would attempt to reinstate in some form both of those regulations.

Finally, we asked which party's voting base came away from this week's ruling more motivated. Fifty-seven percent of the insiders said GOP voters would be motivated to a greater degree while just 18 percent gave the nod to the Democrats. Another 23 percent said it was too early to tell.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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If the “Brexit” deals a blow to the Texas economy, where would it be felt?

• "Seems like the emotional, knee-jerk reaction in the markets is starting to recover, so the short-term 'blow' is much ado about nothing. I'm more concerned about the price of WTI and its effect on the Texas economy than the EU getting its panties in a bunch."

• "It will have a positive impact on Texas. The EU is going to fall apart and that will make a stable pro-business Texas the place to do business!"

• "Oil is still the big thing, but Brexit should have no lasting effect on oil. It's a global market that responds to supply and demand, and Britain's status in the EU is just not a major factor in those forces."

• "'Uncertainty' is never a good thing in the markets or the economy. Brexit has definitely created that dynamic in a very intertwined world."

• "It won't hurt Texas very much. Business will shift to Ireland, the other (and soon to be only) English speaking member of the EU."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Does the “Brexit” vote foreshadow a Trump victory in the U.S. in November?

• "While there are parallels of a strong discontent with political elites, Trump seems incapable of capitalizing on this. His greatest opponent in this race is his own mouth."

• "The Brexit vote is awakening those voters that have been lollygagging this election cycle. It has also forced those voters that are voting for Trump for the hell of it to reconsider."

• "Brexit means that Brits are worried about immigration, as are the Trumpists, but the problem that the Trumpists have is — Trump. He can't win a general election."

• "I still doubt Trump can win, but the Brexit campaign was totally parallel to ours: emotional appeal vs. bloodless policy."

• "It's a great talking point, and one the media has seized upon. But so far evidence has shown that Trump has just turned out GOP general election voters, not any actual 'new' voters. Unless/until he's changing the actual math for November turnout, then there will be no Trump victory to foreshadow."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Do Republican lawmakers attempt next year to reinstate in some form regulations of abortion facilities that were knocked down by the U.S. Supreme Court this week?

• "Wow, what a thought. Safety for women. Novel, eh?"

• "I don't think anyone knows what they're going to try to do about the A word, but whatever it is will soak up a lot of wind in the Capitol. And that's fine with me."

• "Of course. Why waste an opportunity to do something to get re-elected, I mean, to do something about abortion."

• "Of course they will, they have to. But I'm not sure where it falls on the list of social issues the GOP wants. More than transgender bathrooms? More than sanctuary cities, Part 4? More than other abortion-related measures that they may want to start in on?"

• "Another answer is 'yes, on neither.' They'll just come up with other stupid TRAP laws."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Whose voting base is motivated more by the Supreme Court’s ruling on Texas’ abortion law?

• "Historically, pro-choice folks accept the victory and sigh with relief. They take their marbles and go home while the pro-lifers are inspired by strong, passionate religious beliefs and will never let the fight die."

• "In Texas, it will help Trump as this is one more concrete example of why the Supreme Court appointments are so important. Now, conservatives have to trust will make strong appointments. But hey, his appointments won't be worse than Hillary's so what do we have to lose by going all in for Trump?"

• "Now swing-state social conservative Independents have an excuse to hold their nose and vote for Trump."

• "Wins are scarce for Texas Democrats. Any reason for hope is helpful."

• "If it were Cruz instead of Trump, it'd be an issue because he's got a clear record on abortion. Trump doesn't, so he can't capitalize."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Brandon Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, Jay Arnold, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Chris Britton, Raif Calvert, Lydia Camarillo, Elna Christopher, Kevin Cooper, Randy Cubriel, Beth Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Glenn Deshields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jack Erskine, Tom Forbes, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Phillip Martin, Jason McElvaney, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, A.J. Rodriguez, Jeff Rotkoff, Grant Ruckel, Tyler Ruud, Jason Sabo, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Ben Sebree, Christopher Shields, Nancy Sims, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Sherry Sylvester, Sara Tays, Jay Thompson, Trey Trainor, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Michael Williams, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Friday, July 1

• Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, R-Wis., fundraiser benefiting joint fundraising committee Team Ryan, hosted by U.S. Reps. Joe Barton of Ennis, Kevin Brady of The Woodlands, John Carter of Round Rock, Mike Conaway of Midland, Blake Farenthold of Corpus Christi, Bill Flores of Bryan, Will Hurd of San Antonio, Michael McCaul of Austin, Randy Weber of Friendswood and Roger Williams of Austin; Wimberley (10:30 a.m.)
• Texas Society of CPAs (TSCPA) annual members meeting; Tremont House Hotel, 2300 Mechanic St., Galveston (July 1-2)
  

Monday, July 4

• Independence Day holiday

Recent polls show Hillary Clinton within single digits of Donald Trump in Texas. And Clinton herself said last month that she believed the state was flippable. Yet all signs point to Clinton ceding the state to Trump.

It has been almost two months since Ted Cruz dropped out of the presidential race, and — at least publicly — his attitude toward the man who beat him has not changed. Hanging over the already fraught Cruz-Trump dynamic are growing efforts to revolt against Trump in Cleveland.

Looking to capitalize on the news Democrats made in Washington last week with a daylong sit-in on the House floor, U.S. Rep. Lloyd Doggett returned to his gun-friendly state on Wednesday trying to drum up enthusiasm for gun control.

The legal battle to defend Texas' 2013 abortion restrictions — which the U.S. Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional on Monday — cost Texas taxpayers more than $1 million.

Reprising a familiar theme from his abandoned presidential campaign, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz convened a hearing Tuesday and repeatedly charged that the Obama administration is "willfully blind" to the root of terrorism in the United States.

A majority of Texas’ registered voters believe Muslims who are not U.S. citizens should be banned from entering the country, according to results of a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and his Alabama counterpart have dropped their legal bid to squelch a U.S. Virgin Islands investigation of Exxon Mobil after the U.S. territory agreed to end its investigation into the company.

Disclosure: The University of Texas and Exxon Mobil Corp. have been financial sponsors of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Jason Miller will serve as senior communications adviser to Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee's campaign announced Tuesday morning. Miller previously worked in a similar role for Ted Cruz, who waged a bloody battle against Trump in the primaries.

Gov. Greg Abbott has named Joel Arrigucci of El Paso, Liam Fry of Austin and Bridgette Walshe of Fort Worth to serve on the Nursing Facility Administrators Advisory Committee through 2021. The group makes recommendations on the Nursing Facility Administrator Licensing Program to the Texas Department of Aging and Disability Services.

Abbott named Trey Didway of Brownfield judge of the 121st Judicial District Court in Yoakum and Terry Counties through the November election. He ran unopposed in the Republican primary for the seat in March and will not face major party opposition in the general election.

Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton has named Katie McKee, a public relations veteran, as his new director of public affairs this week. She worked most recently at Elizabeth Christian Public Relations, where she repped several clients in the health care, insurance and higher education sectors.

Dallas County Treasurer Pauline Medrano has been elected the new president of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. Medrano, currently NALEO's educational fund chair, was elected the organization's next president unanimously and will serve a three-year term.

Katherine Romans has been named executive director of the Hill Country Alliance after spending the last five months filling the position on an interim basis. She brings extensive nonprofit and legislative experience, and also served previously as director of landowner outreach for the alliance.

Disclosure: The Hill Country Alliance and Elizabeth Christian & Associates Public Relations have been financial sponsors of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.