Gay Marriage Ruling Might Mobilize Voters on Both Sides

Human Rights Campaign press conference at Texas Capitol on June 29, 2015 just a few days following the SCOTUS ruling on marriage equality
Human Rights Campaign press conference at Texas Capitol on June 29, 2015 just a few days following the SCOTUS ruling on marriage equality

Voters got a glimpse of how the same-sex marriage ruling could boost campaign coffers with the barrage of fundraising emails leading up to the June 30 deadline.

There was, for example, an email subject line from state Sen. Donna Campbell, R-New Braunfels, asking voters to “Protect Religious Freedom!”

Or there was a fundraising email from Attorney General Ken Paxton trying to pile up donations before the deadline so “we can show the nation that Texas will not abdicate our voice and our leadership in defending conservative principles.”

But political consultants on both sides say the issue isn’t simply an opportunity for fundraising, and that same-sex marriage will play a significant role as electoral races develop in the coming months.

“There’s no doubt that rulings like the Supreme Court’s energize people to even get more involved in the government process,” said GOP consultant Luke Macias. “So I think when they are able to meet candidates, to hear where they’re at and are able to sympathize with their frustration, they’re definitely willing to step up and support those candidates.”

While same-sex marriage and religious liberty won’t be the sole issue on voters’ minds, Macias said the ruling has served as a “wake-up call” to voters, who will more and more ask candidates where they stand on same-sex marriage and religious liberties.

A handful of more moderate Republicans, Macias said, will “hope that this issue is going to go away,” but that’s not likely with potential religious liberty battles brewing. That includes possible lawsuits against county clerks and business owners from same-sex couples who “want the right to force somebody else to recognize them as much as the government does.”

And it’s that opposition that will also make the issue prominent among Democratic candidates, said James Aldrete, a Democratic consultant.

Democrats recognize “this fight isn’t over,” Aldrete said, with discrimination continuing in other areas like housing and employment.

“The unfortunate thing is, where there’s conflict is where you do mobilize people,” Aldrete said. “And because of the resistance, this opportunity that is at hand but people are still putting obstacles, that’s definitely an issue that candidates are going to have to address and should.”

There’s also the upcoming presidential election that will play a role, said GOP consultant Jordan Berry, especially among conservatives who see the importance of having a Republican president who can appoint conservative justices to the Supreme Court.

“There’s nothing like the immediate fight to motivate people, and there’s nothing they can do about the Supreme Court except gear up to go help a Republican nominee win,” Berry said.

Cruz Camp Reports Raising Up to $10M in Three Months

Ted Cruz's presidential campaign expects to report later this month that it has raised as much as $10 million since launching more than three months ago.

The Texas Republican was first out of the gate when he announced in March he was running for president. He went on to raise $4.3 million in his campaign's first nine days.

Confirming figures first reported in The Washington Post, Cruz spokesman Rick Tyler said Monday the campaign was on track to rake in $8 million to $10 million for both the first and second quarters. That means Cruz raised anywhere from $3.7 million to $5.7 million during the second quarter, information that should be public on or after July 15.

The activity of pro-Cruz money super PACs, though, is likely to push the total amount of money raised by the campaign and those supporting groups to $50 million or higher.

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State Rep. David Simpson, R-Longview, asked Gov. Greg Abbott on Monday to call a special session of the Legislature so lawmakers can “remove state and local officials from the process of issuing marriage licenses.”

Instead, Simpson says, clergy members who don’t oppose same-sex marriage should be the ones issuing marriage licenses — or notaries if the couples don’t want a religious ceremony.

Simpson’s request followed the U.S. Supreme Court decision that legalized same-sex marriages across the country, which Simpson said would “force our county and state officials to violate their most cherished beliefs.”

Simpson is running to replace state Sen. Kevin Eltife, R-Tyler, who is not running for re-election.

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State Sen. Robert Nichols, R-Jacksonville, will once again chair the chamber’s Select Committee on Transportation Planning, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick announced this week.

The committee, which helps plan for Texas' transportation future, will also include state Sens. Bob Hall, R-Edgewood; Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa, D-McAllen; Joan Huffman, R-Houston; and Charles Perry, R-Lubbock, each of whom Patrick called “hard working senators” with vast “leadership, legislative experience and commitment to the State of Texas.”

Nichols, Patrick said, is the “perfect person to lead” the committee again.

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Patrick also named his appointments to a joint oversight committee set up to address the issue of deferred maintenance at government buildings and facilities.

The deplorable condition of some government buildings made news during session, spurring legislation on the topic.

The Senate appointees to the oversight panel are Eltife, chairman; Kelly Hancock, R-North Richland Hills; and Kirk Watson, D-Austin.

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Cruz also hit the road this week to promote his new book, A Time for Truth: Reigniting the Promise of America, beginning in his home state.

Cruz's presidential campaign held book signings Wednesday in Houston and Katy, as well as Thursday in Arlington and Waxahachie. The tour then heads out of state, with stops next week in Georgia, South Carolina and Iowa.

The book, which is both memoir and political biography, went on sale Tuesday.

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Rick Perry launched a new online fundraising appeal this week for his official campaign account.

In the animated video, Perry injects a healthy dose of humor in his attempt to demonstrate how his stewardship of the Texas economy resulted in greater opportunities for Texas workers.

And, for good measure, a Hot Pocket was thrown in as a signifier of a better life in Texas.

Inside Intelligence: About Those SCOTUS Rulings...

For this week’s nonscientific survey of insiders in government and politics, we asked about potential reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court's twin rulings last week on same-sex marriage and the Affordable Care Act.

Most insiders didn't think the Court's rulings would spur a reaction from the Legislature during the current legislative interim. About three in five said neither ruling would lead to anything on the legislative front.

When it comes to the rulings' impact on party primary voters, the insiders had a different take; 86 percent thought that one or both of the rulings would spur a reaction from the primary voters. Fully half of the insiders believed that both rulings would have an impact.

The insiders were strongly one-sided about the correctness of Attorney General Ken Paxton's approach to issuing guidance to county clerks on how to follow the Court's ruling on same-sex marriage. More than 80 percent said that Paxton did not do the right thing when he told those clerks they could refrain from issuing a license although they would be risking legal action against them as a result.

On the final question of how long it might take for rural counties to comply with the Court's ruling on same-sex marriage, a majority of the insiders thought that same-sex marriage licenses would be available in every Texas county in 90 days or less.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

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Which issue spurs a legislative reaction during the interim?

• "Abbott got out of the session relatively unscathed and calling a special opens a Pandora's box of Right winger requests."

• "Both, but the 'reaction' will presumably be more pre-primary rhetoric designed to impress voters who still don't know the difference between Washington DC and Austin TX."

• "Both issues are spurring legislation reactions in the form of press releases, etc., but I do not believe that either will result in a special session called by the governor."

• "When it comes to same sex marriage the SLIGHT majority of Texans are still out of step with the rest of the nation so Texas politicians have cover to be indignant about the issue."

• "If you mean by 'legislative reaction' that there will be a special session — neither. If you mean legislators will make statements and bills will be filed in 2017 to try to temper both rulings, both."

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Which issue spurs a reaction from party primary voters?

• "Each party will make both of these issues prominent in their campaigns. However, it will be more motivating for the Republicans as the losers. The question is: Does gay marriage become the Roe v. Wade of this century and the debates never end?"

• "Texas Republicans will have the largest primary turnout in history, possibly as high as Democrats in 2008."

• "Marriage equality is the nail in the coffin for Republicans and young voters. Nobody beyond the true believers wants to be aligned with bigots."

• "There is a growing disconnect between GOP grassroots and the Washington establishment. Republicans should win in 2016, but this disconnect will sap GOP voter enthusiasm unless it's addressed."

• "As the rule of law continues to be disregarded by the SCOTUS i.e. Obamacare (there is more, tons more) and cultural fascism continues to gain strength i.e. dissent against the status quo and the raging radical left is quashed, people on the right will become more active. These things give Ted Cruz a stronger chance of becoming POTUS. Think I am crazy? Call me back when he is being sworn in as POTUS. I welcome the chance to have Cruz in the WH to try and reverse what has been shoved down America's throats by the regime, of which the Republicrats are a part of."

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Did Attorney General Ken Paxton do the right thing in his guidance to county clerks on same-sex marriage?

• "The AG needs all the help he can get, so posturing on this issue is a boon for him. If he stays out of personal legal hot water over his securities violation — then he will forever be the darling of the religious right. So the guidance was the right thing for him, hardly legal, and useless legally."

• "Worse than merely not doing the right thing. He knows that public officers are required to uphold the law, no matter what their personal beliefs. If those beliefs interfere with their ability to perform their duties, they must resign. Poor lawyering, bad advice, leading to bad results for his clients: public officials across Texas."

• "For his political base? Sure. In reality, and if I didn't know any better, it sounds like he and numerous lawyers are ready to go chase down some ambulances."

• "As an attorney, it's shockingly unethical. Any private attorney giving similar advice to a client in another context would be a fantastic target for a malpractice suit. Attorney rules actually require attorneys to report information on misconduct, so Paxton puts every Texas lawyer in a difficult position."

• "It is interesting that we have an attorney general who has admitted to breaking the law telling others to ignoring the law. No place but Texas."

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When will same-sex marriage licenses be available in all 254 Texas counties?

• "there are couples in all 254 counties demanding them. I'm waiting for someone to ask Warren Chisum to perform them a same-sex marriage in Pampa."

• "Do they even issue marriage licenses in Loving County?"

• "there are some costly lawsuits. I'll stand up for my county clerk's religious freedom, but only if it doesn't involve more taxes."

• "Don't know how hard the Leadership will attempt to block these matters - remember Segregation — took awhile especially in our rural areas!"

• "Let's rephrase the question: How long will it take for all 254 current county clerks to retire, die or get beat? More than 5 years, at least. Some rural county clerks will hold out until they have been sued personally, and there aren't enough willing plaintiffs to bring 254 lawsuits. For the past 10 years, people have been flying to a different state, and now they will be driving to a different county."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Brandon Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Snapper Carr, Corbin Casteel, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, John Colyandro, Harold Cook, Kevin Cooper, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Glenn Deshields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Jack Erskine, Tom Forbes, Dominic Giarratani, Eric Glenn, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Kathy Hutto, Deborah Ingersoll, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Myra Leo, Ruben Longoria, Homero Lucero, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Jason McElvaney, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Todd Olsen, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Karen Reagan, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, A.J. Rodriguez, Jeff Rotkoff, Grant Ruckel, Tyler Ruud, Jason Sabo, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Christopher Shields, Nancy Sims, Ed Small, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Colin Strother, Tom Suehs, Sherry Sylvester, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Saturday, July 4

  • Independence Day

Tuesday, July 7

  • State Sen. José Rodríguez, D-El Paso, town hall; 9050 Viscount Blvd., El Paso (6:30-7:30 p.m.)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Special prosecutors said they’ll be seeking first-degree felony securities fraud charges against Attorney General Ken Paxton in the next few weeks. But Paxton spokesman Anthony Holm called them inexperienced prosecutors leading a “politically motivated effort to ruin the career of a longtime public servant.”

The state’s Democratic Party announced it's doing away with its longtime “Texas Two-Step” tradition of allocating primary voters, following objections from the national party. Both of the state’s parties will allocate all their national convention delegates based on the outcomes of their primaries, giving primary voters a bigger say in choosing a 2016 nominee.

U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio, accused Gov. Greg Abbott of engaging in possibly illegal “pay to play” politics by promising to help a major donor move legislation pushed by insurance companies. Castro referenced an email exchange between Abbott’s office and Richard Weekley, CEO of Texans for Lawsuit Reform.

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz released his memoir, A Time for Truth, in which he bluntly expresses his thoughts on Washington and criticizes Republican leadership. One passage in the book, relating to an endorsement from the elder President Bush in 2009, led to public dispute between Cruz and Karl Rove, who said he didn’t suggest “that the elder Bush was too old to have good judgment anymore.”

Public employers including Texas agencies and universities began allowing current and retired gay and lesbian employees to enroll their same-sex spouses in the same benefit programs and services available to opposite-sex couples. That decision followed Friday’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling legalizing same-sex marriage, which led to some county clerks refusing to issue same-sex marriage licenses right away. Paxton wrote in an opinion that clerks can deny those licenses but should be prepared to face lawsuits over that.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 5-4 in favor of a coalition of states including Texas, which sued the Environmental Protection Agency over its regulations on mercury, acid gases and other toxic metals emissions that spew from power plants. Fresh off that win, Paxton sued the EPA over its new “Waters of the U.S.” rule.

The U.S. Supreme Court sided with Texas abortion providers and temporarily put on hold a ruling that would have closed about half of the state’s abortion facilities. The law, which was set to take effect this week, would have required Texas' abortion facilities to meet hospital-like standards, including minimum sizes for rooms and doorways and pipelines for anesthesia.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced it’ll implement new guidelines designed to better protect transgender people in immigration detention facilities. The announcement comes after 35 congressional Democrats wrote to U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson asking ICE to change its policies.

Political People and their Moves

Gov. Greg Abbott announced the appointment of 10 student regents and a student representative to the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board for terms expiring on May 31, 2016. Those appointees are Megan Piehler (Midwestern State University), Ryan Brown-Moreno (Stephen F. Austin University), Alvaro “Gabe” Pereira (Texas A&M University System), Dominique Calhoun (Texas Southern University), Spencer Copeland (Texas State University System), Victoria Messer (Texas Tech University System), Neftali Gomez (Texas Woman's University), Garrett Hughey (University of Houston System), Courtny Haning (University of North Texas System), Justin Drake (University of Texas System) and Christina Delgado (Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board).

Businessman Dwayne Stovall announced a challenge Wednesday against U.S. Rep. Brian Babin, R-Woodville, saying the first-term congressman hasn’t fought enough against Washington. Stovall came in third in last year's GOP primary contest for U.S. Senate won by the incumbent John Cornyn.

Babin, meanwhile, endorsed GOP presidential hopeful Ted Cruz this week, making the congressman the fifth member of Texas' congressional delegation to back Cruz.

Heath City Councilman Justin Holland announced on Thursday that he is running for the HD-33 seat being left vacant by Scott Turner.

State Sen. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio, announced Tuesday that he’ll run for a fourth term. He said that he's running "not because of what we’ve advanced since I joined the Senate, I seek re-election due to the challenges that remain.”

State Rep. Richard Peña Raymond, D-Laredo, said he’ll run for re-election in HD-42, asking his constituents for “their vote, their input, their ideas, their concerns and their prayers.”

State Rep. Tony Dale, R-Cedar Park, announced Tuesday that he's seek re-election to the Williamson County-based HD-136. He told supporters that he worked to pass a budget this session that “addresses education and transportation funding and delivers nearly $4 billion in tax relief.”

Mineola Republican Bryan Hughes, who's running for the SD-1 seat being vacated by Kevin Eltife, rolled out an endorsement Monday from Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar.

Bill King, a businessman who’s running for Houston mayor, nabbed endorsements this week from Harris County District Clerk Chris Daniel as well as from state Rep. Dwayne Bohac, R-Houston, and former state Rep. Al Luna.

Former General Land Office General Counsel Bill Warnick has hired on with the Kemp Smith law firm where he joins their public law practice. Warnick was GLO general counsel from 2003-15 and prior to that he was a member of the School Land Board.

Disclosure: Stephen F. Austin University, the Texas A&M University System and the Texas State University System are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Quotes of the Week

I just had my first gay couple come in for a marriage license and I ran them off!! … Did I do right? HELP!!!

Brewster County Clerk Berta Rios Martinez on an email list for county clerks in the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling legalizing same-sex marriage

The Rangers went out to investigate one thing, and they came back with information on something else.

Special prosecutor Kent Schaffer to WFAA-TV on the turns taken by the investigation into alleged securities fraud by Ken Paxton

It seems like pollsters gone wild.

GOP strategist Scott Reed on perceptions that presidential hopeful Scott Walker's hardline stance on same-sex marriage is aimed at preserving an early lead in Iowa

It’s a gem, and we cannot – we cannot put it in jeopardy. I mean, absolutely can’t be done. It’s too important to the world.

Pioneer Energy Services President and CEO Stacy Locke, who is largely leading the drilling industry efforts to reduce light pollution

Add green peas to your guacamole. Trust us.

The New York Times, teasing on Twitter a decidedly unconventional take on the chip accompaniment and at the same time uniting Texans, Democrats, Republicans and President Obama against this abomination