Enlarge Illustration by Todd Wiseman

Where's the money in Texas politics? 

Well, the bank balances are one measure, and here are the top 50 from candidate and political action committee reports filed with the Texas Ethics Commission.

* Candidate balances are from semi-annual reports; lobby and PAC balances are from March reports.
   Source: Texas Ethics Commission

Enlarge Paul Lowry

Just how hard are plummeting oil prices hitting the Texas treasury? Data from the state comptroller gives us an idea.

Texas collected about $294 million in oil and gas production taxes in February – about 46 percent below collections in September 2014, the data shows. The average per-barrel price of West Texas Intermediate crude was cut in half during that period.

Of course, as operators scale back their presence in the state’s shale plays, that will harm other areas other the budget, too — particularly sales tax collections. Total sales tax collections have fluctuated in recent months, but it’s hard to gauge precisely how much the slowing oil business affected those numbers.

Although operators are laying down rigs and laying off workers, production has continued to rise, according to the most recent available data. That’s partly because the wells drilled today produce far more oil than the conventionally drilled wells of years past (though the output of those wells trails off more rapidly). Operators now drill multiple wells on one site, and rigs have become more efficient.

The federal Energy Information Administration expects U.S. operators to pump an average 9.3 million barrels per day in 2015, up from 9.2 million in December 2014. And the EIA is projecting output to increase to 9.5 million barrels per day in 2016. That could keep oil prices, and new drilling, low for some time.

As the nation's top oil producer – by far – the price free-fall harms Texas' bottom line the most in absolute dollars, data gathered by the EIA shows. But hey, at least we're not Alaska.

Enlarge U.S. Energy Information Administration

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Enlarge Comptroller of Public Accounts

Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

Senate Finance Committee Chairwoman Jane Nelson, R-Flower Mound, confers with Sen. Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa, D-McAllen, during a March 11, 2015, committee hearing on state contracting issues.

As Senate budget writers started discussion Tuesday morning on a proposed change to the way the state calculates its spending cap, Legislative Budget Board Director Ursula Parks warned against making the new formula too restrictive.

Under state Sen. Kelly Hancock’s proposed constitutional amendment, the state would use the combined rates of population and inflation growth to set a cap on growth of all areas of the budget. The cap currently moves with the growth of personal income in the state.

Parks noted that the change would mean a move away from measuring economic activity. She suggested that lawmakers should compound inflation and population growth if they choose to go in that direction.

Parks laid out her position in an exchange with state Sen. Kirk Watson, D-Austin (it begins around the 25-minute mark):

Watson: If we were to use population plus inflation, is it fair and more accurate to say it should be multiplied as opposed to just using simple addition?

Parks: Yes, please.

Watson: Explain what you mean by that…

Parks: When you add those two rates together, you lose the effect that they have on each other. So you really want to compound them. So that if you have inflation growth, you’re applying that rate of inflation to the new population also coming in. Otherwise, as one grows, you’re not really getting the effect of the other on that other side.

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State Sen. Troy Fraser, R-Horseshoe Bay, has introduced a bill — SB 931— that would declare the renewable energy portfolio standard over and would also end Texas’ Competitive Renewable Energy Zone initiative that regulators used to build the $7 billion in power lines that mostly connect windy West Texas to larger electricity-thirsty cities.

Most of that project — which boosted the state’s wind energy portfolio — was completed in late 2014.

“There’s no message here other than goal’s met, mission accomplished,” Fraser said.

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Rick Perry’s political action committee announced Monday it has hired Erin DeLullo as national coalitions director, adding to its team a Washington, D.C., fundraiser with experience in bringing together candidates and advocacy groups.

“I look forward to promoting the conservative principles Gov. Perry champions around the country and building upon the strong foundation of prominent and grassroots conservative leaders the Governor has fostered relationships with for years,” DeLullo said in a statement from RickPAC, the group laying the groundwork for Perry’s likely 2016 bid.

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With the deadline to file bills for the current session now behind us, here’s our updated, final list of House and Senate bills filed. With 6,109 bills filed in the two chambers, the Lege’s output is higher than the 5,868 bills filed last session.

It’s only the third most prolific session in the past five, though. A total of 6,190 bills were filed in 2007, and 7,419 were filed in 2009.

Here’s the chart:

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We started off this week’s survey of politics and government insiders with questions about what new measures might be taken to curb state spending.

About two in five thought the Legislature would act to change the way the constitutional spending cap is formulated to curtail growth of future budgets. Another quarter believed lawmakers would endorse exempting tax relief and/or debt reduction from future spending cap calculations.

One in five insiders, meanwhile, thought lawmakers would opt for neither measure while 8 percent said they would do both.

The insiders weren't convinced that lawmakers would bust the spending cap this session. Nearly 60 percent thought it wouldn't happen, either because lawmakers decided the question on their own (34 percent) or because voters knocked them down (24 percent).

Meanwhile, 37 percent thought that lawmakers would break the cap, with 19 percent saying lawmakers would act on their own and 18 percent saying they would get voter permission.

A majority of the insiders thought lawmakers would give the OK to half-day pre-K programs as opposed to full-day programs.

Breaking down the half-day proposal, 28 percent thought lawmakers would only fund partially the initiative while 24 percent thought it would be fully funded.

Of the 28 percent who thought lawmakers would opt for a full-day program, 22 percent thought it would partially funded while 6 percent thought it would fully funded.

Another 11 percent thought a pre-K bill wouldn't pass.

And on the issue of straight-ticket voting, a bill banning the practice was heard in House committee this week. But fully half the insiders didn't think straight-ticket voting should go the way of the dodo. Another 38 percent thought straight-ticket voting should be eliminated while 10 percent thought it should be eliminated for judicial elections only.

We collected comments along the way, and a full set of those is attached. Here’s a sampling:

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Which spending limit measures will lawmakers choose?

• "Doesn't seem like the House and Senate are singing from the same page in the hymnal, but that could change by Sine Die."

• "Patrick and Bettencourt have pushed the Senate into a corner where they now have to resort to accounting gimmicks that Texans hate. I'm using the word hate."

• "Getting two-thirds of both chambers to agree to change the constitution on something this controversial and partisan? Perish the thought."

• "Limiting growth in all funds would eliminate the advantage of dedicating the motor-vehicle sales tax and whatever else to the Highway Fund. The left hand and right hand need to communicate."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Will the Legislature bust the spending cap?

• "Not in the regular, but will have to do so in a Special that gets called after the Supreme Court rules."

• "They will adhere to the spending cap after they have removed from the cap additional revenues blessed by the voters as being constitutionally dedicated — roads, debt retirement."

• "IF they bust it, it will be based on putting something on the ballot. This Lege will never take a straight-up vote to bust the limit. Putting on the ballot allows them to look the other way and say it was the voice of the people."

• "Why even bother coming to Austin? Just let the voters decide everything. We could even do it online."

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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Pre-kindergarten legislation has been signaled as a priority issue for Gov. Greg Abbott. What form of pre-K legislation will lawmakers pass?

• "Which Pre-K bill are we discussing? The one the Legislature is likely to pass or the one Governor Abbott is likely to sign?"

• "Too bad his commitment to tax cuts and a more restrictive spending limit get in the way of an alleged priority. Cake/eating issue."

• "HB4. Nothing more."

• "Only a tiny grant version with about $100 million, ensuring full-day pre-K for all schools is years away. (Can you name a recent grant that became a fully-funded program?)"

Enlarge Emily Albracht

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A bill that would eliminate straight-ticket voting was up for a hearing in the House this week. Do you think straight-ticket voting should be banned?

• "I've yet to hear a good reason to do this."

• "It should be banned. But, since in practice that proposal would dilute each district's R and D numbers — thus increasing number of competitive districts and uncertainty — it won’t be passed by this Legislature."

• "Straight ticket voting is the lazy way out. Voters should actually think? What a concept!"

• "Texas Democrats wish. White only lost to Perry by 250,000 with ticket splitters, but got crushed 7-to-1 in straight tickets. The built-in straight ticket advantage has vanquished many a Democratic judge in the last 20 years."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Kerry Cammack, Elna Christopher, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Jack Erskine, Jon Fisher, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, John Greytok, Jack Gullahorn, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Deborah Ingersoll, Mark Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Sandy Kress, Nick Lampson, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Matt Matthews, Jason McElvaney, Mark Miner, Steve Minick, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Grant Ruckel, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Ben Sebree, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Mark Smith, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Tom Suehs, Sherry Sylvester, Sara Tays, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Angelo Zottarelli

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Monday, March 23

• Early voting begins in the HD-124 special election
• Defense of Texas Marriage Amendment Rally; 1100 Congress Avenue, Austin (1 p.m.)

Wednesday, March 25

• Saving Family Lands seminar, presented by the Texas Agricultural Land Trust; 200 East Grayson Street #115, San Antonio (1-5:45 p.m.)

Thursday, March 26

• Saving Family Lands seminar, presented by the Texas Agricultural Land Trust; 1201 Houston Street, Suite 201, Fort Worth (1-5:45 p.m.)

The Texas Senate passed two handgun measures this week. The bills — one to allow permitted handgun owners to carry openly and another to allow permitted handgun owners to carry on college campuses — passed on party-line votes.

Texas House members overwhelmingly gave approval this week to a sweeping border-security measure that would increase the number of state troopers on the border and establish a catchall intelligence center in Hidalgo County.

Senate Finance voted Tuesday to send proposals cutting property taxes and business taxes to the full Senate, though some senators questioned whether the property tax cuts could be better spent in other ways. Taken together, the proposals would provide more than $4.5 billion in property and business tax relief.

Amid an ongoing scandal over how the state awarded a multimillion-dollar contract to a private company, the Senate Finance Committee on Thursday approved legislation that would overhaul the state’s contracting processes.

House budget writers would add $433 million to the current two-year budget with a supplemental bill laid out Thursday, though some lawmakers expressed concern with plans for millions in leftover funds from some state health programs.

Time to cross that name off the short list: The leading candidate to be the next president of the University of Texas at Austin, University of Oxford Vice Chancellor Andrew Hamilton, has been named the next president of New York University.

San Antonio U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro has landed a spot as a chief deputy whip, making him one of the House Democratic leadership's top vote counters on the House floor.

U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., on Monday opened the Austin outpost of his likely 2016 presidential campaign after spending the weekend courting SXSW crowds. An announcement is expected sometime in the next few weeks.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Tryon Lewis of Odessa has been named chairman of the Texas Transportation Commission by Gov. Greg Abbott for a term to expire at the pleasure of the governor. Lewis is a former state representative, having served House District 81 from 2008 to 2015. He is currently a partner at Atkins, Hollman Jones, Peacock, Lewis & Lyon Law Firm.

Andrew Cobos of Houston was appointed by Abbott to the Veterans Land Board. Cobos, an attorney in McKool Smith’s Houston office, replaces Alan Sandersen. The appointment is subject to Senate confirmation.

Arthur Roger Matson of Georgetown was reappointed by Abbott to the Executive Council of Physical Therapy and Occupational Therapy Examiners Board. Matson, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, is currently an admissions liaison officer for the United States Air Force Academy. The appointment is subject to Senate confirmation.

State Sen. José Rodríguez, D-El Paso, has received a White House appointment to the board of directors for the Border Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC) and the North American Development Bank (NADB).

Former state Comptroller Susan Combs and Fort Worth attorney Jay Rutherford have been named to the board of the Texas Institute for Education Reform (TIER). In addition to her time as comptroller, Combs has served as agriculture commissioner and state representative. Rutherford, meanwhile, has served previously as chairman of the Texas Association of Business and the Texas Lyceum.

The Texas Democratic Party announced Emmanuel Garcia as its new deputy executive director. He is transitioning back to the party from former state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte's San Antonio mayoral campaign. According to the announcement, Garcia will assist the party's executive director, Crystal Kay Perkins, in party and infrastructure building.

Texas Medical Association CEO and Executive Vice President Louis J. Goodman has been named CEO of TMA PracticeEdge, LLC, a company created by the medical society to offer physicians tools to make the most of the latest health care payment models.

Disclosure: The Texas Medical Association, the Texas Institute for Education Reform and the Texas Association of Business are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.