Runoff Races Heating Up

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and State Sen. Dan Patrick squared off in a debate for the upcoming runoff election for Lieutenant Governor.
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and State Sen. Dan Patrick squared off in a debate for the upcoming runoff election for Lieutenant Governor.

We are 10 days from the start of early voting in the May 27 primary runoff election, but you don’t need to look at a calendar to know that. All you need to do is look at the headlines from the past couple of days. Here’s a recap:

•    On Wednesday morning, GOP lieutenant governor candidates David Dewhurst and Dan Patrick debated in Dallas. Big topics included how long Dewhurst spent at an Austin steak restaurant while the Senate dealt with amendments to an anti-abortion bill.

•    On Wednesday afternoon, the Dewhurst campaign released a web video attacking Patrick in a parody of the song “Let It Go” from the Disney animated movie Frozen. The Patrick camp responded with a BuzzFeed-style series of GIFs lifted from Frozen attacking Dewhurst.

•    On Thursday morning, failed lieutenant governor candidate Jerry Patterson gave a dual endorsement/un-endorsement in which he presented a top 10-styled list of reasons of why he could not back Patrick even if he were to win the GOP nomination. Not surprisingly, an anti-Dewhurst website later in the day came up with its own list of reasons not to vote for Dewhurst.

•    Also on Thursday, Dewhurst scored an endorsement from former Congressman and former presidential candidate Ron Paul.

Developments also abounded in the GOP race for attorney general. Both candidates in the runoff were set to drop ads, with Ken Paxton airing radio ads beginning midweek and Dan Branch set to go up on TV this weekend.

Also, Branch touted on Thursday morning his endorsement by Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman, who finished third in the first round of balloting for attorney general in March. The endorsement statement highlighted action taken by the State Securities Board against Paxton for not registering as a solicitor for an investment adviser.

The question lurking beneath this flurry of activity is whether any of it matters. Both Patrick and Paxton bested their runoff opponents by double digits in March. Has Dewhurst’s recent barrage of attack ads, for example, moved the needle? We hear anecdotally that it has, but the question remains: Is this movement too little, too late? Also, does an endorsement by Paul, whose backers are more motivated to vote than the average primary voter, appreciably change the electoral arithmetic? And what matters more to runoff voters: media coverage of Paxton’s disclosure lapses or his subsequent disappearance from meet-the-voter events?

*****

Here’s another tidbit to keep an eye on this month. One long-term trend in Texas electoral politics has been the migration of votes from Election Day to the early voting period. Lots of theories have been offered on why this is, but odds are this trend will continue with this election. Why’s that? The runoff takes place the day after the three-day Memorial Day holiday weekend.

*****

Somewhat lost in the shuffle is the fact that voters in Southeast Texas choose their next state senator tomorrow. Four Republicans — Brandon Creighton, Steve Toth, Gordy Bunch and Michael Galloway — are in a special election to succeed Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands, who resigned the SD-4 seat in October.

So far, the election has shaped up as a contest between two deep-pocketed candidates — Creighton and, to a lesser degree, Bunch — and two lesser-funded candidates — Toth and Galloway — hoping that already existing name ID among the grassroots will translate to success at the ballot box.

In the latest round of campaign finance filings, which cover fundraising activity for all of April, Creighton reported spending nearly $550,000 with about the same amount left over in cash on hand. Bunch, meanwhile, had spent a little more than $250,000 and had about $130,000 in cash on hand.

Toth and Galloway spent $89,000 and $6,000, respectively.

If no one gets 50 percent plus one vote on Saturday, a runoff between the top two vote-getters will ensue.

A Tale of Two Quotes

Two quotes — one from a politician possibly looking to seek higher office and the other from one looking to hold on for one more re-election — got our attention this week.

The first is from state Rep. Lois Kolkhorst, R-Brenham, who on Tuesday sent out a statement that basically walked back her vote on legislation last session aimed at requiring politically active nonprofits to disclose the donors who support their political activities. Here’s an excerpt:

Government action and agencies can greatly squelch free speech with its actions and that is simply unconstitutional. It is because of these threats and potential abuses that I no longer support SB 346 and would not vote for it again, knowing what I know today. My views on the outcome of legislation like SB 346 becoming laws have drastically changed through personal experiences. I have been a champion for transparency in government since my first day in the Texas House. During the last session, this legislation was pitched to members as a push for transparency in the political process. After viewing the authoritarian actions of the Texas Ethics Commission, it’s apparent that there is potential abuse of power in Austin. Balanced hearings and airings on this issue are imperative.

The statement is interesting because she throws in her lot with conservative groups like Empower Texans and, perhaps more importantly, distances herself from the leadership team in the Texas House who will likely be pushing legislation on the topic next session.

Kolkhorst herself has been a committee or appropriations subcommittee chair for almost every session of her legislative tenure.

The move to shore up her right flank very well could signal her intent to seek the state Senate seat that will open up should Glenn Hegar, R-Katy, win the general election contest for comptroller. Other names are in the mix, but the makeup of Hegar’s SD-18 isn’t unfavorable to a candidate from the Brenham area.

*****

The second quote is from 91-year-old Congressman Ralph Hall, R-Rockwall, who is in a runoff for the first time in his congressional career. In a statement released Monday, Hall applauded the U.S. Supreme Court decision upholding the right to have a public prayer before town board meetings.

Our Nation is founded upon Christian principles, and our Constitution protects every American’s right to religious freedom and expression. At a time when Christian faith is facing many challenges by this Administration, I am encouraged by the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold individuals’ freedom of religion through public prayer. I pray for wisdom for our Nation’s leaders and that God may continue to bless America.

Despite capturing 45 percent of the vote in March, the Hall campaign was put on the defensive early in the runoff campaign when challenger John Ratcliffe scored endorsements from a handful of conservative groups — Club for Growth, the Senate Conservatives Fund and the Madison Project.

Hall has since sought and touted his own conservative endorsements — the Family Research Council Action PAC and Trey Gowdy, the South Carolina congressman favored by Tea Party groups.

In other words, this quote says a lot about how seriously Hall takes the challenge of winning what he says will be his last term in Congress.

Hall also launched a campaign ad this week notable for how negative it goes on his challenger, a tactic usually reserved for an underdog in a race. On the same day, Ratcliffe put up his own ad, which stated the case that the time had come for a younger generation to lead while striving for a softer tone.

Newsreel: Lt. Gov. Debate, Dan Branch, Pole Tax

This week in the Newsreel: Candidates for lieutenant governor go head to head in a fiery debate, Bernie Tiede is released from prison and Comptroller Susan Combs tells strip clubs to pay up.

Inside Intelligence: About Those Campaign Tactics...

This week, we asked the insiders about campaigns, and about what might be persuasive to voters in this month’s primary runoffs.

Ideology trumped everything else, getting a mention from 87 percent of the insiders, followed (distantly) by candidates’ political records, personal histories and incumbency.

The insiders were split about voter reactions to candidates’ business failures, but 64 percent said late attacks on personal history will be persuasive, and 70 percent said the same about attacks on candidates’ ethics.

We collected verbatim comments along the way and those are attached. Here’s a sampling:

.

Which candidate attributes will be most persuasive to voters in the May runoffs? (Choose all that apply)

• "If you ain't to the right, you won't win the fight."

• "Incumbency can be a blessing or a curse. Motivated voters turn out, making ideology a key to a low turnout runoff."

• "Voters today rely on slate cards and other lists compiled by those they agree with. If political record mattered there would be fewer incumbents like Dewhurst, in runoffs!"

• "Endorsements from Conservative Organizations"

• "These are the diehards that are voting. They know if you've been naughty or nice on their issues from your statements to your past votes."

• "Perception is reality, so I guess the difference will be 'perceived' ideology - not actual policy or voting differences."

• "I'm amazed how far voters have gone away from caring about candidates community, business and public service involvement. Too many voters only care about how much candidates froth at the mouth when they speak."

.

Are voters swayed by attacks on a candidate’s business failures late in a campaign?

• "Any late-breaking negative attack can be effective if it calls into question a candidate's fitness for office."

• "Slate card voters don't think for themselves."

• "It looks a little desperate. But there is probably good reason for that desperation."

• "Texas was founded on second chances. I think most folks are willing to forgive business failures--many remember the 1980s and the harsh lessons we all learned."

• "No. Everyone goes through ups and downs in business, or know someone who has."

• "It depends on the issue and the issue must be more than just being unsuccessful."

• "Better question is whether the voters who will vote in the runoff and are committed to a candidate (i.e., the only ones who will bother to vote) will be swayed. The answer to that question is no. If what you asked is right...whether voters in general going to be swayed, I’d say probably, but they aren't going to vote in this runoff."

.

Are voters swayed by attacks on a candidate’s personal history late in a campaign?

• "Non-traditional sources of information seem to be lessening these types of attacks."

• "If the attacks are true, then yes. After all, didn't we learn early on in life that a leopard can't change its spots? It used to be that if you can't out-drink the other fella, take his money at cards, and sleep with his girlfriend, then you didn't belong in Texas politics. Nowadays, if you engage in some or all of that stuff, then you don't belong."

• "They can be, but the later it comes, the more scandalous it has to be."

• "Since you're referring to people who have already been elected multiple times it's hard to see why it would matter now."

• "It's too late. Voters have picked their teams and in at least the Lt. Gov. primary run-off there has been very little presented that isn't re-hashed from the general primary election. If voters weren't swayed then, they won't be now. In the lower ballot races, the only people paying attention are those who have picked their teams already - making it almost impossible to gain traction."

• "Maybe. Is it information that is new to the voters, is seen by them as credible, and is serious enough to shake their faith in the candidate being attacked? A lot of the mud flying around right now isn't serious enough to make a difference and/or isn't being believed."

.

Are voters swayed by attacks on a candidate’s ethics late in a campaign?

• "Paxton's run for AG is the case study of this question. Stay tuned...."

• "There's a reason nobody likes or wants the 'unethical' tag--the voters don't like unethical politicians."

• "I think it works if the ethical challenges are legit and not speculative. There has to be more than just smoke at this stage in the election."

• "Most voters think all politicians are corrupt."

• "Where is the answer choice for, 'it depends?' Regarding Paxton, he certainly has time to recover and he seems to be taking some of the necessary steps. But if Paxton mishandles it, it could be fatal. Regarding Sitton, his too-little-too-late efforts aren't the issue because he doesn't have the votes (ethics problem or no ethics problem)."

Our thanks to this week’s participants: Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Victor Alcorta, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Christian Archer, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Walt Baum, Dave Beckwith, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, David Cabrales, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Snapper Carr, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Glenn Deshields, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jack Erskine, Wil Galloway, Neftali Garcia, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, John Greytok, Michael Grimes, Jack Gullahorn, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Billy Howe, Deborah Ingersoll, Richie Jackson, Cal Jillson, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, J. McCartt, Kathy Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Keir Murray, Richard Murray, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Todd Olsen, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Ted Melina Raab, Patrick Reinhart, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Jeff Rotkoff, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Larry Soward, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Vicki Truitt, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Friday, May 9

  • Texas Democratic Party's Lyndon B. Johnson Dinner; Sheraton Austin at the Capitol (7-9 p.m.)

Monday, May 12

  • Williamson County Republican Women lieutenant governor forum; Williamson Conference Center, Round Rock (11:30 a.m.)

Tuesday, May 13

Thursday, May 

  • TribLive: A Conversation With Steve Patterson, UT Men's Athletic Director; The Austin Club, Austin (7:30-9 a.m.)
  • Fundraiser for state Rep. Ana Hernandez; The Austin Club, Austin (4:30-6 p.m.)
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

The co-chairman of the House select committee investigating UT System Regent Wallace Hall has concluded his actions don't warrant impeachment. In a letter sent to members of the committee, state Rep. Dan Flynn, R-Van, wrote that Hall's "overbearing, obnoxious attitude and blatant disregard for procedure alone is simply not a reason to impeach."

The Allen Police Association retracted its endorsement of GOP attorney general candidate Ken Paxton, citing the candidate's recent admission that he violated Texas securities law. The action cuts a little deeper because Paxton is the group's hometown senator.

Transparency questions were also raised about Paxton's rival, Dan Branch. A story in the Tribune highlighted Branch's role in killing an amendment in 2003 aimed at forcing lawmakers to disclose when their employer is lobbying the Legislature. Branch's employer, Winstead PC, has a thriving lobby practice.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott unveiled the third plank of his education platform — calling for more resources to support online learning inititatives.

The Empower Texans PAC wrote $100,000 checks each to Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton, who are running for lieutenant governor and attorney general, respectively.

The Democratic nominee for governor in 2006, Chris Bell, endorsed Kinky Friedman in the runoff election for agriculture commissioner. In that 2006 race, Friedman qualified for the general election ballot as an independent. Some Democrats feel Friedman siphoned support from Bell, who apparently is willing to let bygones be bygones.

Bernie Tiede, whose conviction in the killing of 81-year-old Marjorie Nugent inspired a longform piece in Texas Monthly and a movie directed by Richard Linklater, was released on bond and will live in a garage apartment belonging to the director.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin and Texas Monthly are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. The Winstead Civic Trust was a corporate sponsor of the Tribune in 2010. Richard Linklater is a major donor to the Tribune. Rusty Hardin was a major donor to the Tribune in 2012 and 2013. Winstead PC founder Pete Winstead is a donor to the Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Political People and their Moves

Faith S. Johnson of Cedar Hill was named to the Public Safety Commission by Gov. Rick Perry for a term to expire Dec. 31, 2019.

Dr. Austin I. King of Abilene was elected president of the Texas Medical Association over the weekend at the society's annual conference in Fort Worth. The otolaryngologist — an ear, nose and throat specialist — is also married to state Rep. Susan King, R-Abilene, a surgical nurse.

Former state Rep. Valinda Bolton has hired on at the Department of Family and Protective Services as community affairs liaison for Child Protective Services. For the past year, she had been working with the Texas Water Foundation.

Amanda Montagne Martin has hired on with the Texas Association of Business as its new government affairs manager specializing in insurance and healthcare issues. She was formerly on the staff of state Sen. Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands, where she was legislative director and general counsel.

Former House Criminal Jurisprudence Committee Director Vanessa Fuentes has hired on as senior grassroots director for the Southwest affiliate of the American Heart Association.

HD-10 candidate John Wray was endorsed by the political arm of Texans for Lawsuit Reform in the May 27 Republican primary runoff. He is vying with T.J. Fabby for the party's nomination to succeed House Appropriations Chairman Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie.

The political arm of the Texas Medical Association endorsed Linda Koop in the HD-102 GOP primary runoff against incumbent Stefani Carter.

Four former Plano mayors, including former state Sen. Florence Shapiro, endorsed Glenn Callison in the HD-66 GOP primary runoff against Matt Shaheen.

Disclosure: The Texas Medical Association, the Texas Water Foundation and the Texas Association of Business are corporate sponsors of The Texas Tribune. The American Heart Association was a corporate sponsor in 2012 and 2013 of the Tribune. A complete list of Texas Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.

Quotes of the Week

It's a walk-off home run for Perry. His jobs and economy narrative is now complete and real.

GOP political strategist Mark McKinnon on Toyota's move from California to Texas and what it might mean for the presidential hopes of Gov. Rick Perry

It doesn't make sense to have oversight of manufacturing 2,000 miles away from where the cars were made. Geography is the reason not to have our headquarters in California.

Toyota North America CEO Jim Lentz suggesting the driving factor behind the company's move to Texas was geography and that $40 million in economic incentives were a "minor factor"

I, as lieutenant governor, wouldn't go to McDonald's and get a Happy Meal in the middle of a pro-life debate.

GOP lieutenant governor candidate Dan Patrick, criticizing the incumbent David Dewhurst in a Wednesday debate for meeting with his political consultant at a steak restaurant during floor debate over an abortion bill.

I think we have the composite of Pappy O'Daniel, Huey Long and Elmer Gantry as one of the choices today.

Former GOP lite guv candidate Jerry Patterson on his erstwhile rival Dan Patrick

Politics needs to be more interesting because it can be pretty darn boring in this day and age.

Former Democratic nominee for governor Chris Bell, giving one reason for his decision to support former political rival Kinky Friedman for ag commissioner