For our list of the most competitive races in Texas congressional and legislative elections, we lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking races by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat generated.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Incumbents' are indicated by an (i). An asterisk (*) indicates an open seat where the incumbent either didn't run or lost in the first round of voting; those are rated by the apparent competitiveness of top candidates (closer = hotter). This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust as the May 27 runoffs approach. Let us know what you think.

Changes this week: Added the primary race margins and bolded the names of the first-round winners; demoted HD-76 to yellow.

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State Sen. Bob Deuell, R-Greenville, tells Texas Weekly that he’d support changes to the “two-thirds rule” in the Texas Senate to lower the threshold to 60 percent for bringing legislation to the floor.

Deuell, who is facing Bob Hall in the SD-2 GOP runoff in May 27, said that he’s long backed a modification of the rule, a longtime Senate tradition, as an alternative to doing away with the rule entirely.

Changing the “two-thirds” rule to a “60 percent rule” would mean that 19 votes would be required to bring up a measure, as opposed to the current 21 votes.

As it happens, there are 19 Republican senators right now, and the party is fighting hard to turn the Tarrant County-based SD-10 — the chamber’s only swing district — red.

He later joked that he might come to regret the decision should Democrats gain a majority in the chamber. But he added that he felt confident that he could protect the rural interests of his district under a “60 percent rule.” Deuell’s colleague, Kevin Eltife, R-Tyler, has said repeatedly that rural lawmakers have the most to lose by abandoning the “two-thirds rule.”

Deuell won 48.5 percent of the vote in the March 4 party primary, falling just short of the majority needed to win outright. He told TW that several factors worked against him, including poor weather and a drop-off in turnout in his home county by about 3,000 voters.

In addition, he said that he had not anticipated the strength of the third candidate, Mark Thompson, who took 12.7 percent of the vote.

He said that he was working hard to contact his voters to come back out to support him May 27. Also, he said he expected more scrutiny of his opponent in the weeks to come, citing as an example the story in the Thursday edition of The Dallas Morning News examining a 20-year-old allegation of assault against his former wife.

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The Texas Farm Bureau announced this week that it isn’t endorsing the May runoff elections for agriculture commissioner. Spokesman Gene Hall said this was the first time that the TFB has refrained from endorsing.

The group’s endorsee in the GOP primary, J Allen Carnes, finished in fifth place after a campaign dominated by talk of hot-button social issues.

"I never thought I'd see the day where a sonogram bill factors in an ag commissioner race," Hall said.

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Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst this week released another set of interim charges, this time to a number of standing committees on the topic of governmental accountability and transparency.

•    To Senate Health and Human Services, Dewhurst asked members to take a look at prescription drug abuse.

•    To Senate Jurisprudence, Dewhurst asked members to review new requirements from the Texas Supreme Court on statewide electronic filing.

•    To the Senate Committee on Open Government, Dewhurst asked members to look at how to balance full transparency of public records and keeping private information of primary and higher education students “from improper public disclosure. Also, Dewhurst asked the committee to recommend ways to make information about expenditures and contracts on state websites more transparent.

•    To Senate Transportation, Dewhurst asked members to look at the role of Comprehensive Development Agreements (CDA) and Design/Build methods in addressing traffic congestion.

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One “save the date” announcement got our attention this week, this one an invitation to an April 9 reception honoring Barry Smitherman. He might have come in third in a three-way race for the Republican nomination this month, but he’s still chairman at the Railroad Commission.

And as such, he still holds the ax over the heads of the oil and gas industry. Expect this one to be well-attended.

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Michael Quinn Sullivan of Empower Texans and Texans for Fiscal Responsibility.

An irritated federal judge on Thursday did not grant a request from Empower Texans to put a halt to an ethics investigation into the political activities of the group and its president, Michael Quinn Sullivan. In addition, he gave the group seven days to explain why the case belongs now in federal court at all.

U.S. District Judge Sam Sparks was hearing a request for a temporary injunction by Empower Texans to stop the Texas Ethics Commission from enforcing subpoenas for communications, including emails, dealing with its political activities as well as communications with lawmakers.

The subpoenas were sought last month as part of an investigation into a couple of complaints filed in 2012 by state Rep. Jim Keffer, former state Rep. Vicki Truitt and lobbyist Steve Bresnen that allege Empower Texans illegally solicited money for its PAC and that Sullivan acted as an unregistered lobbyist.

The hearing started with Sullivan on the stand. When he said that he was not a lobbyist, Sparks cut in to say he would make that determination. He said shortly afterward that the state "has every right to determine who is a lobbyist."

Sparks was critical as well of the Ethics Commission for drafting an overly broad set of subpoenas. The agency, he said, is "asking for the cattle in the pen by asking for everything in the pen." He also had harsh words for the Office of the Attorney General for filing papers with him late Wednesday night.

He seemed at times disbelieving that the two sides couldn't figure out a way of agreeing on wording for the subpoenas. He referenced at several points complex patent cases worth hundreds of millions of dollars that come before federal courts where subpoenas have to be carefully worded.

Empower Texans is fighting the subpoenas in order to keep its member lists from becoming part of the public record. Such a disclosure would be used by the group's enemies to harass its backers, according to the group. On the witness stand, Sullivan name-checked Keffer, Truitt and House Speaker Joe Straus as opponents who he believed would like to shame or harass donors to his group.

Saying that he wanted to serve as "a catalyst," Sparks at first asked the two sides to get together. He would give them 15 days to report back with an agreement. But when Empower Texans' attorney, Joe Nixon, got up to talk some more about the negotiations, Sparks abruptly changed his mind.

Saying that he could plainly see that Empower Texans had no intent of negotiating, Sparks instead gave Nixon seven days to file a response to a Missouri case that affirmed federal courts don't have jurisdiction in an ethics investigation while remedies still exist at the state level.

The state is arguing that Empower Texans has recourse to state district court to quash the subpoenas, a position with which Nixon did not agree Thursday in court.

Sparks did not grant an injunction, but he did not dismiss the case, either. That means the Ethics Commission will continue to keep its investigation on hold. The commission decided on Monday that it would defer to the federal court and wait until the court decides if it has jurisdiction before it proceeds.

The decision Thursday, then, means a formal hearing on the charges against Empower Texans and Sullivan might end up delayed. The hearing had been scheduled for April 3.

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This week in the Texas Weekly Newsreel: The latest issue in the race for governor is equal pay for women, and Democrats are seizing the opportunity to attract female voters. Also, Kinky Friedman, in a runoff for state agriculture commissioner against Jim Hogan, stopped by a TribLive conversation to talk about pot.

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/1fKGPOZ

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The 11 House races on the May ballot end our look at the runoffs through the eyes of our insiders in government and politics.

The undecided numbers were high in a lot of these races, most of which are Republican primaries in districts where the incumbents decided not to seek re-election. The incumbent on the list — Rep. Stefani Carter, R-Dallas — is in trouble, coming in second in a race for re-election after initially saying she would run for the Railroad Commission instead of the House. The insiders overwhelmingly think Linda Koop will win that race.

Another race of interest is on the Democratic ballot in El Paso, where former Rep. Norma Chávez finished behind newcomer Cesar Blanco in the first round (and both finished ahead of the incumbent, Naomi Gonzalez). Most of the insiders think Blanco is the candidate to beat in the runoff.

We collected verbatim remarks along the way and a full set is attached. Here are some excerpts:

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Who will win the HD-76 Democratic Texas House runoff?

• "Haven't the voters of El Paso rejected Norma Chavez before?"

• "Blanco will win. That said, I do miss Norma's free beer."

• "Austin -vs- Mostyn == Norma. She's tanned, rested and ready."

Who will win the HD-105 Democratic Texas House runoff?

• "This runoff race is over. Motley wins by a landslide."

• "$ vs. Hispanic surname?"

Who will win the HD-10 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "All the way with Wray."

• "This one could go either way. Wray has the establishment support but Fabby has the Tea Party mystique. In a runoff, I would normally give the edge to the Tea but Wray seems like a legit candidate, so he may be able to pull it out."

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Who will win the HD-16 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "There is a civil war amongst two Tea Party factions in this area. This race could go either way. Creighton was smart not to run again because he would've lost to either Metcalf or Seago."

• "Two good guys running, which you can't say is happening in every runoff."

Who will win the HD-53 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "The fact that the Kerr County attorney could only muster 29% in a district where Kerrville is the largest city suggests that this seat will go to Murr."

• "The lobby chose Henneke early and they chose wrong. Murr won 10 of 12 counties and almost bested Henneke in his home county. Henneke simply doesn't have the base of support that Murr enjoys throughout the district, and this is not the kind of district you win in the mailbox."

• "This one was surprising. Not being from a population center did not seem to hurt Murr in March, when he led the field with room to spare and nearly beat Henneke in his own home county. That should give Murr the inside track in May."

Who will win the HD-58 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "Eby surprised many by making the runoff, but Johnson County Republicans are circling the wagons behind Burns and Eby's lack of experience will catch up with him. Burns wins going away."

• "Be good to have a Dewayne in the house. It's a good 'Merican name."

• "This race is pretty similar to Wray/Fabby and could go either way. Eby's Tea connections puts the wind at his back in a runoff, but Burns is a serious contender and has a legitimate chance to pull it out in May."

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Who will win the HD-66 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "This is one of those rare occasions where both candidates deserve to be sent to Austin. I hope the loser finds another district to run in next cycle."

• "Shaheen never stops working"

Who will win the HD-102 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "It's bad to lose one of the few African Americans in the Republican Party, but it will be great for public policy."

• "I know everyone in Austin hopes it's Koop -- GOP, DEM, Liberal, Conservative and Agnostics. All want Koop."

• "Proven conservative record in the State House"

• "Carter bungled this from the start; I give the edge to Koop."

Who will win the HD-108 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "Meyer may raise more money than anyone imagined, but the Westcott machine will see this one through."

• "Meyer almost won on election day. I would guess that means he wins the runoff."

• "Thurston Howell, III"

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Who will win the HD-129 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "Berg has strong ties to the local women's clubs in her district and has been working with the grassroots for a long time. Paul can write a check and has the Republican Taliban Slate Cards on his side. I'm looking forward the Hotze' commercials."

• "This runoff pits two current SREC members against one another. Both are active in the local Rotary club. Both are well known and well liked. This has been a very tough choice for voters who would be okay with either candidate. But I think that Sheryl has put in much more door-to-door time and effort so I predict Sheryl will win in overtime. ."

Who will win the HD-132 Republican Texas House runoff?

• "As they say in the Valley, 'ese arroz ya está cocido.' That rice is cooked. Time for all lobbyists to write a Schofield check."

• "The conservatives will work hard to make sure Mike is elected."

• "Schofield's victory will be a sad day for Katy and a beacon of hope for future carpetbaggers"

Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Brandon Alderete, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Terri Burke, David Cabrales, Kerry Cammack, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, Harold Cook, Chad Crow, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, June Deadrick, Nora Del Bosque, Holly DeShields, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Jack Erskine, Jon Fisher, Neftali Garcia, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Billy Howe, Deborah Ingersoll, Jason Johnson, Bill Jones, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Tim Lambert, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, James LeBas, Luke Legate, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Dan McClung, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Steve Minick, Bee Moorhead, Nelson Nease, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerod Patterson, Robert Peeler, Tom Phillips, Allen Place, Royce Poinsett, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Ted Melina Raab, David Reynolds, Carl Richie, Jeff Rotkoff, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Jim Sartwelle, Barbara Schlief, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Robert Scott, Steve Scurlock, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Todd Smith, Leonard Spearman, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bill Stevens, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Corbin Van Arsdale, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

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Saturday, March 22

• Texas Democratic Senate district conventions — statewide

Wednesday, March 26

• Fundraiser for state Sen. Wendy Davis; The Dome Bar, Camino Real Hotel, El Paso (5:30-7:30 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, featuring San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro; Viola's Ventanas Mexican Restaurant, San Antonio (6:30-8 p.m.)

Thursday, March 27

• TribLive: A Conversation With Sen. Charles Schwertner and Reps. John Raney and Kyle Kacal; Texas A&M University, College Station (11:30 a.m.-1 p.m.)
  
• Fundraiser for state Sen. Glenn Hegar; 3690 Inwood Drive, Houston (5:30-7:30 p.m.)

One out of three ain't bad? GOP lite guv runoff opponents David Dewhurst and Dan Patrick were on track to meet face-to-face three times this week. But Patrick withdrew from the first in Houston because the event was closed to the press. He then withdrew from the second in Arlington because he was already slated to appear with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee before supporters in Dallas. The two are confirmed, though, for a joint appearance in Kerrville on Friday.

The issue of equal pay between men and women drove the contest for governor this week with plenty of fodder supplied for both campaigns. By week's end, the Greg Abbott and Wendy Davis campaigns were trading salary figures intended to show the opponent had a worse record on fair pay.

State Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston, and San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro have finalized plans to face off over immigration policy and border security on April 15. They will debate before a small live audience at Univision's San Antonio studios. The encounter will be moderated by the Tribune's Evan Smith and will be livestreamed by the Tribune.

Lots of news coverage this week on the car maker Tesla, which named Texas one of four finalists to house its planned $5 billion lithium-ion battery factory. But the state's strict auto dealership laws could hurt its chances, company officials say.

Attorney General Greg Abbott's attempt to get the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals to reconsider an October ruling that overturned a law intended to prevent sexting between adults and minors took an odd turn when the court instead threw out the notification law on which Abbott based his appeal.

The Campaign Legal Center, a Washington, D.C.-based voting rights organization, warned the City of Jasper against annexing three white subdivisions. The voting rights group said such an action could harm minority voters and could run afoul of the Voting Rights Act.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, Univision was a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. (See the full list of Tribune donors below $1,000 here.)

Richard Hall has been hired away from the Teacher Retirement System of Texas to oversee the private equity portfolio for Harvard University's endowment fund. Hall had worked for six years at TRS where he managed $14 billion in private equity, according to the Boston Globe, which reported the hiring.

Philip Castille, the president of the University of Houston-Victoria, resigned on Tuesday, according to the University of Houston System.

Rob Looney has announced that he will step down as president of the Texas Oil and Gas Association at the end of the year, concluding 26 years spent representing the oil and natural gas industry.

John Cuellar of Dallas was named chairman of the Aging and Disability Services Council by Gov. Rick Perry. In addition, Edward Yosowitz of Houston was appointed to the council, which assists the elderly and disabled in Texas.

Endorsements of current candidates by former opponents:

•    Jake Ellzey, who finished third in the HD-10 GOP primary, has endorsed John Wray in the runoff election against T.J. Fabby.

•    Sam Brown, who finished third in the HD-102 GOP primary, has endorsed Linda Koop in the runoff election against Stefani Carter.

Other endorsements of note:

•    Former Republican Party of Texas Chairman George W. Strake Jr. has endorsed Ken Paxton in the GOP runoff for attorney general.

•    The Houston Police Retired Officers Association has endorsed Dan Branch in the GOP runoff for attorney general.

•    State Sen. Donna Campbell, R-New Braunfels, has endorsed Wayne Christian in the GOP runoff for railroad commissioner.

•    The Texas Home School Coalition Association has endorsed Glenn Hegar for comptroller in the general election.