After Perry and the Legislature, a Starting Gun

Gov. Rick Perry in San Antonio on July 8, 2013, announcing that he will not seek re-election.
Gov. Rick Perry in San Antonio on July 8, 2013, announcing that he will not seek re-election.

The summer pivot — that switch from legislative action to political action — is a little late this year, but it’s upon us.

Campaign finance reports are revealed next week, offering a first chance to size up some of the candidates aiming at the March primaries next year.

Some have started the bragging cycle: Attorney General Greg Abbott is adding $4.8 million to his already fat treasury for the governor’s race; state Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, will have $4 million in his account towards a race for attorney general; the newest Supreme Court justice, Jeff Boyd, raised $450,000.

The governor answered the first question about his future this week and released the pressure valve on everything else. Abbott will announce on Sunday in San Antonio (same city, different location than the governor chose for his revelation). Tom Pauken held a Capitol news conference this week. Railroad Commissioner Barry Smitherman filed papers with the Texas Ethics Commission confirming he’ll run for attorney general against Branch and, perhaps, state Sen. Ken Paxton, R-McKinney.

Monday is the campaign finance report deadline and the numbers should come into public view as next week plays out.

And if all goes as planned, the Legislature will be leaving as the subject turns to politics. This was supposed to happen after the Father’s Day veto deadline that followed the regular session, but everyone was busy with the first and then the second special session.

Time, finally, to switch gears.

One other bit of political news, from the federal courthouse in San Antonio. The latest round of redistricting briefs are due, and this is the set that will confirm what everyone already suspected: The litigation over the state’s political maps is not ending — it’s just entering a new phase.

This is the last Texas Weekly of July; our annual summer break will last two weeks and we’ll be back in August.

Here’s the latest version of our weekly sounding on statewide races, still without any Democratic contenders showing their heads:

TRBs Ready to Play, if Perry Will Allow It

The Main Building of The University of Texas at Austin.
The Main Building of The University of Texas at Austin.

Legislators appear ready and willing to approve billions in tuition revenue bonds — or “TRBs” — for campus construction projects, but only if Gov. Rick Perry will let them.

Despite popular support in both chambers, a bill that would have allowed more than $2.7 billion in bonds to be issued for projects around Texas failed in the final days of the regular session largely due to egos and political miscalculations.

(The bill died when the House refused to go to conference on the bill, the Senate refused to accept the House version and neither side blinked as time ran out.)

There was hope that the issue might be added to the agenda of the first special session, but it didn't happen. There remains hope that it might be added to the call and addressed before the second special session ends — as early as today.

“With nineteen days left in the special session, there is still plenty of time to do so," Rep. John Raney, R-College Station, said in a statement on Thursday, warning that failing to help colleges and universities build and renovate their campuses could have dire consequences.

“Institutions’ hands are tied and growth is stifled if we, the Legislature and the Governor, don’t provide an additional funding source sooner rather than later,” he said.

So far, the governor, who chooses the items on the special session's to-do list, has only called for bills dealing with abortion restrictions, sentences for 17-year-old murderers and transportation funding.

“What the governor’s staff has always told me,” said state Sen. Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo, who has attempted to get TRB legislation passed for the last three regular sessions, “is that he would consider adding TRBs to the call after the other three bills were passed.”

The last time the Legislature passed a bond package for campus construction was in 2006, and the wish list of projects at universities has been growing.

Perry has given no indication that he intends to add the issue. When asked if it might be added during the initial days of the second special, Perry spokeswoman Lucy Nashed replied, "The governor wants lawmakers to focus on the issues that are already on the call."

But some lawmakers have decided to focus on TRBs anyway. Between the House and the Senate, eight bills have been filed in the current special session, some dealing only with specific projects, like a highly anticipated engineering education and research center at the University of Texas at Austin.

On Thursday, the House Appropriations Committee met and approved House Bill 5, by state Rep. Dan Branch, R-Dallas, a broad bill that would benefit campuses throughout Texas.

Appropriations Chairman Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie, said his plan was to park the bill in the Calendars Committee so that it could be moved quickly if Perry opts to add it to the call.

It's not an unprecedented move. In 2006, a TRB bill was similarly situated when Perry added the issue to the call midway through a special session. It only took four days for the legislation to wind its way through the legislative process, and it was ultimately signed by the governor.

If lawmakers attempted to move House Bill 5 further along without Perry's blessing — which, in theory, they could try — it would be vulnerable to a point of order.

“A TRB bill would be the perfect way to end the session,” said Zaffirini, who has her own legislation ready to be filed when the time comes.

“This special session has been so controversial,” she said. “This would be something positive. We would end on a high note. It would bring the governor’s focus back to economic development, and I believe it would be a morale booster for higher education.”

Census Interactive: Mapping the State's Minors

Newsreel: Perry's Out, Santorum's Mad, Abbott's Loaded

In this edition of the Texas Weekly Newsreel: Gov. Rick Perry announced he will not run for re-election, Rick Santorum stopped by the Capitol to say a thing or two about the omnibus abortion bill and Attorney General Greg Abbott put more money in his campaign coffers.

Inside Intelligence: About the Exciting Future Plans...

With the governor’s announcement that he won’t seek re-election, we asked the insiders about the next couple of elections, starting with the governor’s own possible ambitions. The insiders were overwhelming in their prediction that he will run for president in 2016 (81 percent) and that he won’t win that year’s Republican primary (76 percent).

A similarly large group expects an easy win for Greg Abbott in the attorney general’s bid for the rare open seat for governor of Texas. A smaller but still large majority believes U.S. Sen. John Cornyn will win re-election without a serious challenge.

We collected comments along the way and a full set is included. Here are some excerpts:

.

Do you think Rick Perry will run for president in 2016?

• "He is doomed to failure. The public has decided he's not very bright, and there are plenty of bright candidates available."

• "Perry is very disciplined at executing campaign plans. IF he gets good advice on what that plan should be and pays attention to all of its elements, including becoming more conversant with some national and foreign policy issues, he could put himself in a credible position to throw his hat back in the ring."

• "Perry's retirement from the Governor's office will greatly reduce his public profile and ability to raise money. His dismal showing in 2012 leaves him starting a race for the nomination nearly at zero."

• "To quote someone else's bumper sticker ... Why the hell not?"

• "He's a great fundraiser.... perhaps head of the NRC? He'll do something high profile at a national level. He's not done yet."

• "No Doubt."

.

Do you think he can win the presidential nomination in 2016?

• "I think America has had enough of Texans in the White House."

• "The economy is a winning issue."

• "He will need to run a flawless campaign. He will be a better candidate, but the field will be immensely tougher. Iowa or bust. Probably has to win Iowa and SC to be viable -- a very tough road."

• "The national media will Dan Quayle him. They brought up his debate memory lapse when reporting his announcement that he would not seek re-election."

• "A lot can happen between now and then and who knows what the major issues will be in 2016, but if the economy continues to sputter along, place a side bet on him--he seems to have impeccable timing."

• "When you stumble as badly as he did in 2012, you don't get a second shot at the title."

• "Absolutely not."

.

Do you think Greg Abbott will face a serious challenge in the governor’s race in 2014?

• "I like Tom Pauken but he has no money and practically no audience. Senator Wendy Davis has about as much a chance as Sissy Farenthold. Who I voted for."

• "I wouldn't underestimate Tom Pauken. Pauken could probably get a lot of independents to vote for him only if he can distinguish himself separate and apart from Abbott and the crazies."

• "Only one person in the world thinks Pauken should be governor."

• "Hard to compete with pockets that deep."

• "Define serious. Right now it doesn't appear so, but what if Dewhurst decides he wants to be governor instead of lite gov? All of a sudden that $20M war chest Abbott has is negated. Still, Dewhurst will have issues in a GOP primary, but he could be a serious contender."

• "Greg Abbott is a strong candidate. The race is his to lose."

• "Abbott is the shoo-in of all shoo-ins."

.

Do you think U.S. Sen. John Cornyn will face a serious challenge in his bid for reelection in 2014?

• "Most everyone likes vanilla."

• "There will be some Tea Party rumblings, but he's turned himself into enough of a Ted Cruz clone in his votes the last year that he should squeak through without a serious challenge."

• "Lots of frustration among the grassroots about Cornyn's middle of the road votes."

• "In races for US Senator, Ted Cruz was a one-time phenomenon. Yes there will be a Tea Party candidate running against Cornyn, and yes that opponent will be attacking Cornyn for not being conservative enough, but the opponent (whoever that turns out to be) will not have the skill, resources, plan, personal energy, speaking ability, fundraising ability, etc., necessary to win statewide."

• "The Democrats are at least 6 years away from fielding candidates."

• "It's all about the money, money, money. They all need money, money, money."

• "Next to Dewhurst, Big John is the most vulnerable of the Republican statewide incumbents due to low name ID and no personal connection with the Republican electorate."

• "Certainly will be challenged, but think this race will show the weakness of the TEA party, representing about 30% of the primary voter."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Jennifer Ahrens, Victor Alcorta, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Dave Beckwith, Amy Beneski, Andrew Biar, Allen Blakemore, Tom Blanton, Chris Britton, Andy Brown, Lydia Camarillo, Kerry Cammack, Marc Campos, Snapper Carr, Janis Carter, William Chapman, Elizabeth Christian, Elna Christopher, Addie Mae Crimmins, Beth Cubriel, Randy Cubriel, Curtis Culwell, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Roberto DeHoyos, Nora Del Bosque, Tom Duffy, David Dunn, Richard Dyer, Jeff Eller, Gay Erwin, Jon Fisher, Wil Galloway, Neftali Garcia, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Stephanie Gibson, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Jim Grace, Alan Gray, John Greytok, Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Adam Haynes, John Heasley, Ken Hodges, Steve Holzheauser, Kathy Hutto, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Cal Jillson, Bill Jones, Mark Jones, Robert Jones, Lisa Kaufman, Robert Kepple, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Sandy Kress, Dale Laine, Tim Lambert, Nick Lampson, Pete Laney, Dick Lavine, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Mark Lehman, Leslie Lemon, Myra Leo, Richard Levy, Ruben Longoria, Matt Mackowiak, Dan McClung, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Mike Moses, Steve Murdock, Keir Murray, Nelson Nease, Pat Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Robert Peeler, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Allen Place, Kraege Polan, Gary Polland, Jay Pritchard, Jay Propes, Brian Rawson, Tim Reeves, Patrick Reinhart, Kim Ross, Grant Ruckel, Jason Sabo, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Robert Scott, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Julie Shields, Jason Skaggs, Ed Small, Martha Smiley, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Gerard Torres, Trey Trainor, Kathy Walt, John Weaver, Ware Wendell, David White, Darren Whitehurst, Christopher Williston, Seth Winick, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli.

The Calendar

Friday, July 12

  • House Calendars Committee hearing (10 a.m.)

Monday, July 15

  • Annie's List fundraiser for Sen. Wendy Davis; W Hotel, Austin (7-8:30 p.m.)

Thursday, July 18

  • Julia Rathgeber, newly appointed commissioner of the Texas Department of Insurance, to speak at the annual Mid-Year Property and Casualty Insurance Symposium; Sheraton Austin Hotel
 

The Week in the Rearview Mirror

Gov. Rick Perry announced Monday that he will not run for re-election next year, creating the first open race for Texas governor since 1990 and making Attorney General Greg Abbott the instant favorite to replace him. Perry’s exit from the statewide stage after nearly a quarter century doesn’t necessarily end his political ambition. He has said previously that he would make his decision about a White House bid before the end of this year; Perry made a brief and oblique mention of another run for national office. Abbott will officially announce his plans on Sunday in San Antonio, followed by a multi-city swing through the state next week.

Tom Pauken, the former Texas Republican Party chairman, is betting his fellow conservatives want a change of direction after a dozen years of Perry and what he says would be "more of the same" from Abbott. First, he will have to get people’s attention.

The governor set Nov. 5 as the date for the special election to determine who will serve out the remainder of state Rep. Mark Strama's current term. Early hopefuls include businesswoman Jade Chang Sheppard, associate municipal court judge Ramey Ko, prosecutor Rico Reyes and Celia Israel, a former aide to Gov. Ann Richards.

Opponents of the new abortion regulations working their way through the Texas Legislature have said the measures will face immediate legal challenges. But defenders of the legislation are welcoming the opportunity to take their case to court.

Political People and their Moves

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn hired Brendan Steinhauser to run his reelection campaign, choosing the former FreedomWorks op to help him navigate through a party that has imbibed a lot of Tea since Cornyn was last on the ballot in 2008. Steinhauser worked on campaigns for Marco Rubio, Mike Lee and Pat Toomey and has most recently been working for the Texas Public Policy Foundation.

As expected, state Rep. Harvey Hilderbran, R-Kerrville, is prepping for a run for state comptroller, telling the full House this week that this will be his last session as a member of that body. He is one of several Republicans hoping to replace Comptroller Susan Combs, who isn’t seeking another term. He’ll make an official announcement of his plans “in the coming weeks.” 

Dallas Republican Linda Koop will run for the Texas House in HD-102, a seat Stefani Carter is giving up to run for Railroad Commissioner. Koop is a former member of the Dallas city council.

State Rep. Linda Harper Brown, R-Irving, will seek reelection next year, setting up a primary fight between her and former state Rep. Rodney Anderson, R-Grand Prairie.

Dr. Raymond Greenberg will be the new executive vice chancellor for health affairs at the University of Texas System, replacing Dr. Ken Shine. Greenberg has headed the Medical University of South Carolina for the last 13 years.

The University of Texas at Austin is naming its new Latin American Law Center for former U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison

Quotes of the Week

I remain excited about the future and the challenges ahead, but the time has come to pass on the mantle of leadership. Today I am announcing I will not seek re-election as governor of Texas.

Gov. Rick Perry, announcing his "exciting future plans"

My gut says he is going to make another [presidential] run.

Ray Sullivan, a former Perry chief of staff who was at the governor's announcement this week, to the Austin American-Statesman

Thanks for your long-term leadership. Always good to go out on top. That said, at 85, I’m not big on going out at all.

T. Boone Pickens, tweeting after Perry's announcement

Don’t get me wrong. I have always wanted Wendy to be my governor. But I don’t want everyone to get carried away with the events of the day without the mathematics having changed.

Texas Democrat and Wendy Davis patron Amber Mostyn, in The New Republic

This idea that there’s a divine right of succession, I challenge it and thoroughly.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Pauken on anointing Attorney General Greg Abbott the front-runner to replace Perry

There have been efforts to turn Texas blue — over my dead political body.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in a radio interview with Laura Ingraham

It's better to be safe than sorry. It's an emotional issue. Tensions are high inside and the temperature is high outside. All you need is one knucklehead to stir things up.

Sen. Rodney Ellis, D-Houston, quoted by the Associated Press on the doubling of security after abortion protests at the Capitol