Enlarge Illustration by Jeff Heimsath / Bob Daemmrich

Sen. John Carona, R-Dallas (l) and Sen. Dan Patrick, R-Houston (r)

Does the John Carona-Dan Patrick spat help either senator's hopes of becoming the next lieutenant governor?

A friend in the lobby calls the Legislature "high school, with money." He's dead on. Look who's passing nasty notes back and forth for the whole class to see: Patrick, a pious Houston Republican and the self-appointed voice of the conservative faction in the Senate's GOP caucus, and Carona, a pugilistic Dallas Republican who would like to be the next lieutenant governor of the state and who seems perfectly willing to accept the 16 votes that would take from anyone in the Senate — even Democrats.

Over the weekend, somebody in the 31-member Senate shared a note with the Quorum Report that was supposed to stay inside. (Memo from Benjamin Franklin: "Three may keep a secret so long as two are dead.") In it, Patrick blasted Carona for spreading a rumor about Patrick and his wife breaking up. It's not true, he wrote, parboiling the Dallas senator for spreading gossip. Carona responded the same way you might expect from a guy known in the Senate for his volcanic temper. He wrote a note — copying everyone — scorching Patrick for scorching him, and raising new gossip about the Houstonian's sexual preferences. And then Patrick responded in kind, kicking Carona and declaring that he would speak no more of it.

If you haven't seen this (Out of town? Wireless was down? Dropped the phone in the sink?), here are some excerpts.

From Patrick's note:

I was in Dallas last week and learned that Senator Carona has told people outside the Senate that Jan and I are separated and may get divorced. He added in a few other negative comments about me in an obvious attempt by him to discredit me for some reason. He can say anything he wants to about me, but saying that Jan and I are separated and may get a divorce is not fair to her or my family.

From Carona's note:

Though I have heard rumors regarding your marital status and sexual preferences for a while now, at no time have I told anyone that you are either separated, divorced, or gay. These are private matters between you, your family, and your minister and none of us wishes to engage in the public discussion that you have now commenced.

Call me cynical, but I believe your motivation for pulling this stunt centers around your paranoia over the 2014 Lt. Governor's Race (for which you appear to have declared candidacy) and your concern that no other Senate Republican emerge as a threat to your ambitions. As you know, if you truly believed I had said something unflattering, you could have simply asked.  I've never been shy about sharing my dislike and distrust of you.  Put bluntly, I believe you are a snake oil salesman; a narcissist that would say anything to draw attention to himself.

The Senate likes to think itself decorous, especially in comparison with the raucous House. Hard to tell Downton Abbey from Ridgemont High, isn't it?

This is all about the fight and not about the substance of the fight. Carona hopes to win the lieutenant governor's chair if and when David Dewhurst leaves the Senate; the presumption in that body is that Dewhurst will win the race for U.S. Senate and it will fall on senators to name one of their own to fulfill the remainder of his four-year term.

Sen. Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo, chimed in at the end, wondering whether Patrick would share the name of the person who accused Carona of telling stories and wondering, as Carona did, why Patrick didn't just pick up the phone and call his Dallas colleague.

One possible answer: Patrick wants someone else. Maybe Kevin Eltife, R-Tyler, a class favorite who has stayed clear of the pillow fights. Or Jane Nelson, R-Lewisville, a conservative veteran who would be the first woman to hold the job since the earth cooled. She stayed well clear, too. Other names come up, too, like Robert Duncan of Lubbock and Tommy Williams of The Woodlands. Somewhere in Texas, contenders were giggling all week. 

Patrick wants to shut the Democrats out of the vote. Most senators — 19 — are Republican, and he thinks the presiding officer should also be a Republican. In fact, no Democrat has a chance. But Patrick wants the Republican caucus to elect Dewhurst's replacement and then to vote as a bloc when that candidate appears for a vote from all 31 senators.

Think like a candidate for a minute. If you wanted to be president of your high school class, you'd take your votes where you found them, right? Why limit it to the cool kids — the football team, the cheerleaders, the social magnets?

That's how Rep. Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, became speaker. There were 74 Democrats in the 150-member House, and the vast majority of them wanted to dump Speaker Tom Craddick, R-Midland. And there were just enough Republicans, Straus included, to combine with them to elect a new speaker. Straus had to find 76 votes — and he took them wherever he could find them.

He later won reelection from a House with a conservative supermajority. Some Republicans have never forgiven him. They have failed to knock him off for that particular apostasy, but are still trying.

That informs the Senate fight. On the other end of the Capitol, Patrick is playing to the same people who didn't like the idea of a Republican speaker initially elected with more Democrats than Republicans at his side. Carona, for example, who is popular enough with the Democrats to raise the question. (It's not at all certain how anyone would vote, including the Democrats, and there are months of inside politics ahead.)

Patrick would prefer a Senate run by Republicans to one run by a majority of its members — unless that majority is from his party.

So who won? Carona did more damage, and Patrick got his nose twisted for making a public fuss. But the case against Carona, if there is one, is that he's not the most politic of politicians, and the occupant of the corner office is supposed to be a level-headed referee. Bob Bullock had a helluva temper, but he wasn't elected to the office by the senators, either. And many of them complained of his stress for success style of management. Patrick might have a long run angle; if he seeks the office in 2014, Carona might have inoculated him against the trouble-at-home rumors. As others have done — the governor is a prime example — he can dismiss it two years from now as old and false gossip spread by a political rival, and move on. Also, he's playing the outside game: Patrick doesn't want to run for the job among the senators, but is considering the possibility of asking voters for the post in 2014. That's a different audience, and one that doesn't care about the Senate's tender sensibilities.

It's early for this. Senators are talking about it, but Dewhurst is still in office. And the elections will tell the survivors something about what voters want. Is this going to be a big Republican year? Which kinds of Republicans will prevail? Voters will answer those questions later this month, in the primaries, and in November.

The senators will continue their sorting. Someone won't measure up. Someone will. If it goes the way it did when Rick Perry left to replace George W. Bush in the governor's office, nobody will know for sure until the Senate's own votes are counted.

Just like the elections in high school. 

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Early voting is upon us. The candidates are jumping up and down to get attention, spending money and trying to figure out how many of us will vote. And which ones. The Hotlist is almost ridiculously long (75 races!), but it's a redistricting year and also an election year with a large number of freshmen defending their seats — a time when candidates are often vulnerable.

We count 33 races that will be decided no matter what on May 29; the rest of them have at least a chance of a July 31 runoff. In a dozen — because of the number of candidates — it's almost a certainty.

You know the drill: We lifted the color scheme from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest in and heat generated by a particular race, then assigning each group a garish color.

Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk.

Orange is trouble on the front porch.

Red is trouble walking in the door.

Open seats are rated by the apparent margin between top candidates (closer is hotter). 

Incumbents are indicated with this: (i). A printable version is attached as a .pdf file.

This is certainly and intentionally subject to argument, and we'll revise and adjust each week, based on interviews, our reporting and your feedback through the May 29 primary. Let us know what you think.

Changes this week: Added HD-2, HD-80; promoted HD-43, HD-59, HD-137; and demoted HD-98.

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Enlarge Ben Philpott

More jobs in Texas...but more people looking too.

In stump speeches across Texas, Republican incumbents are touting the conservative budget cuts made last session or going one step further saying there’s room for more. Few, if any, are emphasizing the 10,200 state government jobs lost over the last year as a result of budget tightening.

There’s the obvious reason politicians would avoid the topic, and then there’s this: Economists don’t think the loss of state jobs will have a significant continuing impact on the Texas economy.

There's no doubt that overall government job losses dampened economic growth in 2011; even as private sector job growth accelerated, the unemployment rate barely budged because Texas dropped a combined 67,000 government jobs that year. What's notable is while Texas shed government workers, the total number of unemployed people dropped by 120,600 as the overall economy improved, according to Texas Workforce Commission statistics.

The main drivers of Texas’ economic growth — the technology and energy sectors — are projected to show continued strength in the coming months. Oil and natural gas continue to fetch high prices and the increase in hydraulic fracking is attracting lots of technological innovation.

Austin, the hot bed of state government jobs, has shown even more economic growth than most areas of the state because of its success with expanding high tech companies, the obvious examples being Apple and Facebook. This week, Forbes ranked Austin fifth out of the 65 largest metropolitan areas as the best place to find a job in 2012.

Even the impact of the $4 billion reduction in appropriations for local school districts, which dropped local government employment by more than 56,000 jobs over the last year, should start to level out in the next year, says Keith Phillips, a senior economist at the Dallas Federal Reserve. And although that drop seems drastic, many of the teachers and administrators laid off by public school districts found lower-paying jobs at private schools, he added.

“The government sector will be less of a drag on the economy than last year, I’m pretty confident in that,” he said, emphasizing that the recent increase in sales tax revenue reported by the state Comptroller, combined with fairly stable or increasing property values across the state, should help school districts in the long run.

Projections for the health care sector are mixed. On the one hand, hospitals and other health care providers are facing drastic cuts to reimbursements for Medicare and Medicaid services and uncertainty on the impact of federal health care reforms, which makes it difficult to expand. But in the long run, baby boomers on the brink of retirement will soon reach a critical turning point and the need for health services is bound to boom when they do.

These health care challenges are particularly stark in the Rio Grande Valley where a larger portion of the population is enrolled in government health programs. Although the regional economy has increased health care services dramatically in the last few years, pharmacists and other providers say the tightening reimbursement rates are putting their businesses in danger. 

Enlarge Bob Daemmrich

U.S. Senate candidate Ted Cruz speaks at the Texas Tea party rally Sunday May 6, 2012 at the Texas Capitol. Cruz is trailing frontrunner David Dewhurst in the race to replace current Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.

Ted Cruz got two boosts this week, starting with a $1 million ad campaign on his behalf from the Club for Growth and ending with an endorsement from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

The Super PAC promoting Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst's bid for the U.S. Senate released poll results that have their guy at 57 percent — enough to avoid a runoff. They've got Ted Cruz in second, at 16 percent, followed by Tom Leppert, at 12 percent. Another group — Steven Hotze's Conservative Republicans of Texas — has Dewhurst at 51 percent, Cruz at 16 percent and Leppert at 7.

Gov. Rick Perry continued his endorsement tour, blessing House Appropriations Chairman Jim Pitts, R-Waxahachie, in HD-10, J.M. Lozano in HD-43 in South Texas, Craig Goldman in HD-97 in Fort Worth, and Larry Taylor of Friendswood in SD-11.

Attorney General Greg Abbott endorsed Rep. Paul Workman, R-Austin, in his reelection bid, as did Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson. Comptroller Susan Combs endorsed Lozano. Abbott endorsed Bryan Hughes, R-Mineola, in his HD-5 reelection bid.

Sen. Chris Harris, R-Arlington, endorsed Rep. Todd Smith, R-Euless, in the race to replace Harris in the Senate. That's the senator's third endorsement: At various times in the last few months — under various redistricting maps — he endorsed former Rep. Toby Goodman and local businessman Vic Vandergriff. Neither ended up running. Rep. Kelly Hancock, R-North Richland Hills, is on the other side in that race and picked up endorsements from the Tarrant County Republican Club, CLEAT, the North Richland Hills Firefighters and the Arlington Police Association.

Railroad Commission candidate Christi Craddick picked up endorsements from a group of Republican lawmakers that includes Sen. John Carona of Dallas, and Reps. Phil King of Weatherford, Jodie Laubenberg of Parker, Tan Parker of Flower Mound and Ken Paxton of McKinney.

The Texas State Rifle Association's PAC endorsed Rep. David Simpson, R-Longview.

Keith Hampton won the Texas State Bar's Judicial Poll. The Democrat is challenging Sharon Keller, presiding judge of the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals.

The Texas Parent PAC endorsed Jason Villalba in the Republican primary in Dallas' HD-114, Amber Fulton in Denton County's HD-106, former San Antonio City Councilman in HD-125, Susan Todd of Fort Worth in HD-97, Bennett Ratliff, R-Coppell, in HD-115, and Roger Fisher, R-Bedford, in HD-92.

Matt Schaefer, who's challenging Rep. Leo Berman, R-Tyler, in HD-6, got an endorsement from Grassroots America, a group headed by local conservative activist JoAnn Fleming.

The Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association PAC endorsed Barry Smitherman, who's running to keep his appointed seat on the Texas Railroad Commission. 

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The Patrick-Carona feud, and a list of people facing very tough career reviews this month.

You can view the video at: https://trib.it/IMxIxG

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We resumed our run down the ballot this week, asking the insiders who'll win in some contested Democratic congressional primaries. But we started with the story of the week — the sharp email exchange between Sens. John Carona, R-Dallas, and Dan Patrick, R-Houston that were shared first with their fellow senators and then leaked to the public at large.

Of the two, Carona came out ahead, according to the insiders. But they also said Sen. Kevin Eltife, R-Tyler — who wasn't involved or mentioned in the email shootout — was a winner. He's an early favorite in the race to succeed Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, who is running for U.S. Senate, and the theory is apparently that anything that lowers a potential contestant raises his chances.

On to the races. Here's the short form: The insiders aren't divided on who'll win, choosing incumbents whenever they could. They like U.S. Reps. Lloyd Doggett in CD-35, Eddie Bernice Johnson in CD-30, Silvestre Reyes in CD-16 and Ruben Hinojosa in CD-15. Doggett is a member of Congress, but not technically an incumbent; he moved into CD-35 when redistricting left his home in Republican waters. In CD-23, where the incumbent is in the GOP primary, the insiders chose state Rep. Pete Gallego of Alpine over his primary opponents, including former U.S. Rep. Ciro Rodriguez of San Antonio and attorney John Bustamante. The winner will face U.S. Rep. Francisco "Quico" Canseco in November.

As we do every week, we've attached a full set of verbatim comments from the insiders. Here are some of the highlights:

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

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A bonus question, from this week's Texas Senate's headlines: Who won?

• "I didn't know the Senate was now a high school. Talk about cyber-bullying between those two 'esteemed' colleagues."

• "He's Sicilian! Wait for the horse head to appear in Patrick's bed!"

• "Why isn't 'no one' an option? Not sure who won or lost, but it appears someone clearly lost his marbles."

• "If Patrick had a problem with Carona, he should have come to him like a man. Patrick's overwrought actions ensured the Senate was the loser."

• "No one. The public does not understand all the inside baseball and this type of exchange does nothing to enhance the public's perception of state government."

• "Dan Patrick should learn how to use a telephone. Aren't there laws against spamming?"

• "The grassroots love Patrick. That's his trump card."

• "Neither Carona nor Patrick gained favor with colleagues in preparation for Lt. Gov. selection. Eltife gained because he is seen as a non-controversial selection as Lt. Gov. for two year stint."

• "A few came out winners (Z, Eltife, Duncan, e.g.), but only one came out a sure loser: Patrick"

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Who do you think will win the CD-35 Democratic primary?

• "SA prevails. Travis County finally gets it for being the 'liberal bastion'"

• "That guy has more political lives than a cat...."

• "Prince was right. Money changes everything."

• "I will believe he's gone when he doesn't fog a mirror anymore"

• "Finally, Doggett rejoins the private sector."

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Who do you think will win the CD-30 Democratic primary?

• "Choosing between the evil of 3 lessers..."

• "I pity the residents of this district."

• "She had name ID and high favorables. Then Obama endorsed her."

• "Johnson will win, but Clayton is impressive and will be heard from again."

• "Power of incumbency trumps all."

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Who do you think will win the CD-23 Democratic primary?

• "Not sure, think a runoff is in the works here."

• "Gallego's financial contributions far exceed the other candidates."

• "Pete. No repeat."

• "In a Democratic primary, always bet the most liberal candidate."

• "Pete's been working the district hard, has waited his turn, and has no baggage, unlike Ciro."

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Who do you think will win the CD-16 Democratic primary?

• "Incumbency & the Clinton effect will prevail."

• "With crowded fields in the CD 15 and CD 16 Democratic primaries the incumbent likely takes it. The others dilute the opportunity for one strong candidate to win"

• "Name identification, regardless his poor record, wins at the polls."

• "Reyes has serious ethical issues, but El Paso voters don't care."

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Who do you think will win the CD-15 Democratic primary?

• "Who? Are these really candidates?"

• "Runoff"

• "Bankruptcy aside, the incumbent will win this one."

Our thanks to this week's participants: Clint Hackney, Anthony Haley, Wayne Hamilton, Bill Hammond, Sandy Haverlah, Albert Hawkins, Adam Haynes, Jim Henson, Ken Hodges, Billy Howe, Laura Huffman, Shanna Igo, Deborah Ingersoll, Richie Jackson, Cal Jillson, Jason Johnson, Mark Jones, Walt Jordan, Lisa Kaufman, Richard Khouri, Tom Kleinworth, Ramey Ko, Sandy Kress, James LeBas, Donald Lee, Luke Legate, Leslie Lemon, Richard Levy, Ruben Longoria, Vilma Luna, Matt Mackowiak, Luke Marchant, Bryan Mayes, Dan McClung, Parker McCollough, Mike McKinney, Robert Miller, Bee Moorhead, Steve Murdock, Craig Murphy, Keats Norfleet, Pat Nugent, Sylvia Nugent, Nef Partida, Gardner Pate, Jerry Philips, Tom Phillips, Wayne Pierce, Royce Poinsett, Kraege Polan, Jay Propes, Ted Melina Raab, Bill Ratliff, Karen Reagan, Tim Reeves, Jeff Rotkoff, Jason Sabo, Luis Saenz, Mark Sanders, Andy Sansom, Jim Sartwelle, Stan Schlueter, Bruce Scott, Steve Scurlock, Bradford Shields, Christopher Shields, Dee Simpson, Ed Small, Todd Smith, Larry Soward, Dennis Speight, Tom Spilman, Jason Stanford, Keith Strama, Bob Strauser, Colin Strother, Michael Quinn Sullivan, Sherry Sylvester, Jay Thompson, Russ Tidwell, Trent Townsend, Trey Trainor, Ware Wendell, Ken Whalen, Darren Whitehurst, Michael Wilt, Alex Winslow, Peck Young, Angelo Zottarelli, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jenny Aghamalian, Clyde Alexander, George Allen, Jay Arnold, Louis Bacarisse, Charles Bailey, Tom Banning, Mike Barnett, Leland Beatty, Dave Beckwith, Amy Beneski, Andrew Biar, Tom Blanton, Steve Bresnen, Chris Britton, Andy Brown, Jay Brown, Lydia Camarillo, Thure Cannon, Snapper Carr, William Chapman, Elna Christopher, George Cofer, Lawrence Collins, John Colyandro, Randy Cubriel, Denise Davis, Hector De Leon, June Deadrick, Jeff Eller, Jack Erskine, Alan Erwin, John Esparza, Jon Fisher, Terry Frakes, Norman Garza, Dominic Giarratani, Bruce Gibson, Eric Glenn, Kinnan Golemon, Daniel Gonzalez, Thomas Graham, Alan Gray, John Greytok.

Enlarge Todd Wiseman

Monday, May 14:

• Early voting starts (runs through May 25)
• First lady Michelle Obama to visit Dallas (3:30 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for State Board of Education member Thomas Ratliff; Austin (5 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for U.S. House candidate Mike Jackson; Dallas (5:30 p.m.)

Tuesday, May 15:

• Fundraiser for Rep. Armando Walle; Austin (4:30 p.m.)
• Fundraiser for Harris County Democratic Chair Lane Lewis; Houston (5:30 p.m.)

Wednesday, May 16:

• Reception for House candidate Carol Kent; Austin (5:30 p.m.)
• Reception for Rep. Linda Harper Brown; Irving (6 p.m.)

Thursday, May 17:

• Joint School Finance Committee meeting; Austin (9 a.m.)

Friday, May 18:

• Senate Education committee meeting; Austin (9 a.m.)

It’s looking increasingly unlikely that Texas will be able to enforce its new voter ID law by November. The controversial measure, requiring voters to show a valid form of photo ID at the polls, didn’t win the necessary approval from the Department of Justice earlier this year and is now being litigated in federal court. With the trial set to begin July 9, both sides are pointing fingers at the other for delaying the process. Justice Department attorneys are blaming Texas officials for dragging their feet in complying with subpoenas and producing requested documents, while Attorney General Greg Abbott’s office is charging that federal officials are asking for a staggering amount of unnecessary information.

Testifying before lawmakers who cut state Medicaid spending in the last budget, agency officials this week warned that the program will be facing a shortfall when legislators meet again next year. Cutting $15 billion in state spending and $12 billion in services, they said, is not enough savings to offset the growth of the program, which funds health care for poor children, the disabled and the elderly poor. That population has nearly doubled in the last decade, and in 2010 the number of poor children grew more than 10 percent.

This week, reacting to steep cuts in funding, the Texas A&M University system raised tuition and fees at most of its institutions around the state. Seven of its nine campuses will see tuition increases for the 2013 fall semester, though the flagship College Station campus and the San Antonio campus will remain the same. All of the universities in the system will be subject to increases in fees.

Comptroller Susan Combs released new sales tax numbers, saying collections in April were up almost 11 percent from April 2011. Increases came mainly from the oil and gas industries, but restaurants and retail stores also saw gains.

After getting the green light to begin accepting low-level radioactive waste on April 25, Waste Control Specialists LLC is facing another challenge to its operation in West Texas. District Judge Lora Livingston overturned a Texas Commission on Environmental Quality decision that kept two residents living nearby the dump from disputing the facility at a hearing. The decision won’t stop the company’s ongoing operations, and the company immediately indicated that it would appeal the decision. The two residents are concerned that the area’s air and water may be contaminated by the waste. They will now get a hearing before the State Office of Administrative Hearings and a decision from a judge, which TCEQ can accept, reject or modify.

A new billboard unveiled in San Antonio this week encourages atheists to band together. The Washington, D.C.-based United Coalition of Reason has been placing billboards across the nation since the group’s inception three years ago and funded the placement of the 14-by-48-foot billboard with the message “Don’t believe in God? Join the club.” Fred Edwords, national director of the coalition, said the intent of the billboard is not to attempt to convert believers into non-believers but to offer support to atheists who may feel isolated in their community.

Jay Kimbrough is back at the state's Juvenile Justice Department — formerly the Texas Youth Commission — tapped by Gov. Rick Perry to try again to right that troubled agency. Kimbrough has been at the Texas Department of Public Safety, where he's second in command, after losing his job at the Texas A&M University System.

Ward Farnsworth, an associate dean at Boston University School of Law, will take over as dean of the University of Texas School of Law on June 1. Farnsworth clerked for Richard Posner on the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals and Anthony Kennedy on the U.S. Supreme Court. He'll replace former dean Larry Sager, who is still a professor at the law school, who was forced by UT President Bill Powers to step down last December.

Nobel Prize winner Dr. Alfred Gilman quit the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas, where he was chief scientific officer, citing concerns about the way CPRIT awards grants.

After 27 years at the University of Houston System, Grover Campbell is leaving his post of vice chancellor to hang out a lobby shingle of his own. He jokes (kind-of) that he's looking for "large and underrepresented interests." He'll be with UH through the end of the month. Coming in: Darrin Hall, who has been at Houston City Hall for eight years, most recently working for Houston Mayor Annise Parker.

Jim Moore and Glenn Smith will be joining the Progress Texas PAC to help with communications. Moore, a former TV journalist, is co-author of Bush's Brain and other books; Smith, a former newspaper reporter, worked for a number of Democratic officials and candidates, including Bill Hobby, Ann Richards and Tony Sanchez.

Gov. Perry appointed:

• Lynwood Givens of Plano and Sharon Carr of Katy to the Texas State Library and Archives Commission. Givens retired from Raytheon Co., where he was chief technology officer. Carr, who's being reappointed, is a retired librarian and administrator from the El Paso ISD.

• Fredrick "Rick" Rylander of Iraan and Lewis McMahan of Dallas to the Texas Water Development Board. Rylander is a rancher and former manager with National Oilwell Varco; McMahan, who's being reappointed, is an engineer and retired vice president of Texas Instruments.